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Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Edgy MD Feb 25 2015 05:58 PM

Yeah, you're getting into the heart of the order now, baby. I'm Matt Harvey and I've been chomping at the bit for about 17 months. What's going to happen? How do I know? I know everything, but still I'm boggled. BOGGLED! But I'm a lightning rod, baby. Everybody's got an opinion about me. And about Qualcomm. [fimg=500:rxnhvf6z]https://blog-blogmediainc.netdna-ssl.com/upload/SportsBlogcom/1660342/0792017001422810959_filepicker.jpg[/fimg:rxnhvf6z] [fimg=500:rxnhvf6z]https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/harveyfinger1.jpg[/fimg:rxnhvf6z] [fimg=500:rxnhvf6z]http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2013/02/26/sports/baseball/26harvey/26harvey-superJumbo.jpg[/fimg:rxnhvf6z] Opinions, man. Opinions are like UCLs. Everybody except R.A. Dickey has one, but some just won't hold up to the challenges that regular usage places on them. What do you think is going to happen to me in 2015? And hey, how 'bout those Rangers?

themetfairy Feb 25 2015 06:03 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Cy Young Award Winner

John Cougar Lunchbucket Feb 25 2015 06:06 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Bad news: He's only the 3rd or 4th best starter on the team this year. Good news: he wins 14 games. 14-5, 3.43, 190 innings, 28 starts, spends a week or so out of commission with an injury scare but it helps him get to the finish line.

Edgy MD Feb 25 2015 06:18 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

I preferred your prediction from the "Prospect Porn" thread. My $$ on Big Fat Disappointment, emphasis on "Fat."

batmagadanleadoff Feb 25 2015 06:20 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Harvey's very high ceiling and comeback attempt from major throwing arm surgery makes for a range of possibilities that is likely broader than that of any other Met. He could be absolutely brilliant again, or suffer a devastating setback. Or anything in between. Beats the shit out of me. How the fuck would I know?

dgwphotography Feb 25 2015 06:31 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

I hope people don't expect too much from him, because Harvey and his over-inflated ego still have a long road back to be 100%, if he ever will be that again. I can see him with 10-12 wins, maybe a 12-10 record.

dgwphotography Feb 25 2015 06:32 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Bad news: He's only the 3rd or 4th best starter on the team this year. Good news: he wins 14 games. 14-5, 3.43, 190 innings, 28 starts, spends a week or so out of commission with an injury scare but it helps him get to the finish line. If he has a 3.43 ERA, he'll be under .500 with this team's offense.

batmagadanleadoff Feb 25 2015 06:46 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

dgwphotography wrote: I hope people don't expect too much from him, because Harvey and his over-inflated ego still have a long road back to be 100%, if he ever will be that again. See, that's where you're dead wrong. Harvey's over-inflated ego never sank below 100%. It'll probably be at 400% as soon as he strikes somebody out in Florida.

cooby classic Feb 25 2015 06:49 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

He does something embarrassing.

dgwphotography Feb 25 2015 06:53 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

batmagadanleadoff wrote: dgwphotography wrote: I hope people don't expect too much from him, because Harvey and his over-inflated ego still have a long road back to be 100%, if he ever will be that again. See, that's where you're dead wrong. Harvey's over-inflated ego never sank below 100%. It'll probably be at 400% as soon as he strikes somebody out in Florida. Niiiice!

Edgy MD Feb 25 2015 07:02 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

With regard to the offense-burdened losing record: [list:3l1b1oxn]> The Mets scored 3.88 runs per game last year. > Assumming a typical Harvey start averages seven innings, pitching to a 3.43 ERA, he will yield two innings to the bullpen. > Assuming the bullpen pitches at the same level as last season, they will function to a 3.14 ERA. > Assuming Harvey gets standard performance from the Mets bullpen, a typical Harvey start will yield 3.38 earned runs to the other side, combining his performance with that of his relievers. > Assuming the Mets defense performs at a level comparable to last year's squad, they will yield 0.09 unearned runs for every earned run the team allows. > Assuming Harvey gets standard performance from his defense (and his strikeout rate should probably allow us to imagine he gets better, but let's be conservative), his typical start should yield 0.31 unearned runs > Assuming all that falls in line, a typical Harvey start should yield 3.69 runs. (We're using full numbers in the adding but I'm only representing to the hundredths. > Assuming he gets standard performance from his offense, that will be a lower score than the 3.88 runs they scored last year, suggesting he should have a winning record, given those assumptions and an average amount of luck. A .525 winning percentage. > Assuming he gets 28 starts, that amounts to something like a 10-9 record, because mean regression is like that, with nine no-decisions. But still, those numbers are enough to suggest he'll out pitch his offense.[/list:u:3l1b1oxn] We're assuming a lot — including that standard offensive levels will be the same as last year's, which they likely won't, considering that they've moved in the fences on the right side. (This actually would suggest that his 3.43 ERA would have more value.) So what do you think will abandon him here? it could be the defense, the bullpen, or his luck? But you definitely pin the blame on the offense. Do you think it will get meaningfully worse?

Benjamin Grimm Feb 25 2015 07:03 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

13-10, 3.40. I don't think he'll ever be as good as he was in 2013, and that's not just because of the surgery.

Edgy MD Feb 25 2015 07:07 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

It'll be because of the blackmail.

Vic Sage Feb 25 2015 07:41 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

9-7, 3.50 ERA. After 25 inconsistent starts, he blows out his elbow again in Early August and needs another surgery. He comes back in 2016, but is never really the same.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Feb 25 2015 08:13 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Edgy MD wrote: I preferred your prediction from the "Prospect Porn" thread. My $$ on Big Fat Disappointment, emphasis on "Fat." I think being 4th best pitcher on staff and a 3.43 ERA would be considered a disappointment. I'm not sure how fat he is these days but you can tell he's one of those guys who's vulnerable to it.

Edgy MD Feb 25 2015 08:23 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Sure, I just liked the tone better. Let's get personal. My prediction for Dillon Gee is that he'll pitch 68 innings out of the bullpen and smell terribly. My prediction for Daniel Murphy is that he'll have a personal high in errors and his jokes will be awful.

dgwphotography Feb 25 2015 08:30 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

I'm not sure how fat he is these days but you can tell he's one of those guys who's vulnerable to it. From Adam Rubin this morning. It could be camera angle, lens distortion, Harvey's posture, or he went on the Sid Fernandez seasonal diet plan. You decide:

batmagadanleadoff Feb 25 2015 08:33 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'm not sure how fat he is these days but you can tell he's one of those guys who's vulnerable to it. I was thinking the exact same thing when I saw the picture in the first post to this thread. I'd bet that if Harvey suddenly went sedentary for eight or so months, he'd put on 50 pounds, easily. [fimg=333]https://blog-blogmediainc.netdna-ssl.com/upload/SportsBlogcom/1660342/0792017001422810959_filepicker.jpg[/fimg]

dgwphotography Feb 25 2015 08:35 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Edgy MD wrote: [fimg=500]https://blog-blogmediainc.netdna-ssl.com/upload/SportsBlogcom/1660342/0792017001422810959_filepicker.jpg[/fimg] Every time I see this picture, I'm struck by how much Harvey looks like Greg Brady right after Don Drysdale filled his head with visions of the majors...

MFS62 Feb 26 2015 04:27 AM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

16-12 2.89 Later

smg58 Feb 26 2015 01:58 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

16-10, 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 210 K in 200 IP. I'm bullish.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Feb 26 2015 02:36 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

dgwphotography wrote: Edgy MD wrote: [fimg=500]https://blog-blogmediainc.netdna-ssl.com/upload/SportsBlogcom/1660342/0792017001422810959_filepicker.jpg[/fimg] Every time I see this picture, I'm struck by how much Harvey looks like Greg Brady right after Don Drysdale filled his head with visions of the majors... Greg was a complete douche in that episode but Drysdale was also quite stupid. As Robert Reed would ask, "Who wrote this shit?"

Edgy MD Feb 26 2015 03:15 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Still, that's one of the last Harvey photos I've seen where he doesn't look fat, abrasive, chaw-filled, and/or haughty. Where he doesn't look like he's got his mook on.

Edgy MD Feb 26 2015 03:18 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

It's a rare episode where Greg gets a VIP visit. Big shot guest stars were usually more concerned with Bobby's or Marcia's maturation/development/emotional health. Still, in this shot, Drysdale seems honestly concerned with Greg's form.

metsmarathon Feb 26 2015 03:42 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

13-7 2.95 ERA in 180 innings, with 185 k's, better late in the season than early.

Ceetar Feb 26 2015 04:46 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

190.1 IP, 204K, ERA 2.49, All-Star. 47 different mainstream columns written complaining about his bravado. 3 separate incidents where someone takes offense to a comment and it becomes 'a thing'. At least one of these will be Stephen A. Smith. One of these people will complain that he should shut up because he's not their best pitcher despite having an ERA a full point lower than Niese who just happens to have won 4 more games at the time. Will have 6 doubles on the season, including one that hits just below the top of the wall. Will have three wins in the playoffs. Will shoot off fireworks from the parade float. Will appear on no less than 10 different prime-time/late-night talk shows after the season, including Stephen Colbert's. Will reference The Jetes (maybe not like that) at least 14 times in referring to the Mets and New York and 'taking back the town' during the season, but will pitch a CG shutout at Yankee Stadium.

dgwphotography Feb 26 2015 06:25 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Ceetar wrote: 190.1 IP, 204K, ERA 2.49, All-Star. 47 different mainstream columns written complaining about his bravado. 3 separate incidents where someone takes offense to a comment and it becomes 'a thing'. At least one of these will be Stephen A. Smith. One of these people will complain that he should shut up because he's not their best pitcher despite having an ERA a full point lower than Niese who just happens to have won 4 more games at the time. Will have 6 doubles on the season, including one that hits just below the top of the wall. Will have three wins in the playoffs. Will shoot off fireworks from the parade float. Will appear on no less than 10 different prime-time/late-night talk shows after the season, including Stephen Colbert's. Will reference The Jetes (maybe not like that) at least 14 times in referring to the Mets and New York and 'taking back the town' during the season, but will pitch a CG shutout at Yankee Stadium. [youtube]F-bsf2x-aeE[/youtube]

Lefty Specialist Feb 27 2015 01:27 AM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

11-8; 3.56, takes a few breaks during the year and is shut down early. First year back he'll be on a short leash.

Ashie62 Feb 27 2015 02:11 AM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

On and off. Finds out pitching MLB ball ain't that easy. Will scuffle with press 13-9 3.51 era 1.18 comp

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 27 2015 07:08 AM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Who's this one, again?

G-Fafif Feb 27 2015 06:38 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

There will be a moment, perhaps in Spring Training, perhaps on his normal throw day, maybe while on the mound during the season when he feels something. He'll be temporarily shut down for precautionary reasons but we'll be assured it's nothing. He won't go on the DL but he'll be pushed back. He'll miss a start. Then they'll backdate him onto the DL, but it won't mean he's hurt. In fact, it'll be good for all concerned. It will save him some innings. He'll feel fine. Really. It was just a little something. It's normal. It's better it happened now than later. Ultimately, he'll be Harvey again, but in the interim I expect a speed bump.

d'Kong76 Feb 27 2015 08:44 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

It was nice of him to email us today... ya know, to choose our seats in person!

d'Kong76 Feb 28 2015 08:00 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

I think it's funny how many fans are penciling in as Harvelous, 2015 Savior. Will start off bad, maybe land on DL, 2015 will see him be the fourth best starter.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jun 17 2015 03:56 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

The Puma reports on Matt "That's A Clown Question, Bro" Harvey Matt Harvey snaps at ‘bulls—‘ question after shutdown start If Matt Harvey considered his season at a critical juncture Tuesday, he was keeping that information private. “I’m not answering that bulls—,” Harvey growled as he cut off his postgame interview session after he was asked if he considered his recent slump a crisis point in his season. The Mets had seen the best of Harvey for seven innings and needed it in holding off the Blue Jays 3-2 at Citi Field for a third straight victory. The ace right-hander’s final line over the seven shutout innings included four hits allowed with six strikeouts in his sharpest performance in almost a month. The Mets scored three early runs and then disappeared offensively. Bobby Parnell provided the bullpen heroics with 1 ²/₃ innings of scoreless relief. Manager Terry Collins described Harvey as “not very happy” lately — he had a 7.20 ERA in his previous four starts before Tuesday — and determined to change course. But Harvey disagreed with the assessment he brought anger to the mound against the Blue Jays. “It’s part of baseball,” he said. “You’ve got to stay positive and go out and work as hard as you can to fix things and there are going to be adjustments throughout your career and hopefully it’s a long one, so figuring out how to stay out there and get people out is part of baseball.” So Harvey didn’t consider his season at a crisis point? “We’re done,” Harvey said, ending the questioning.

Edgy MD Jun 17 2015 04:07 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

I support your media shutdown, Matt, but at least be creative. [list:16tm5cdl]"That's a harlequin question, Bro'." "That's a query I'd consider to be characteristic of a mountebank, Cousin." "I'm not going to field the inquests of this Merry-Andrew, here. I think we're done."[/list:u:16tm5cdl]

Ceetar Jun 17 2015 04:13 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Who asked the question? Was it Puma himself? Because if so he's really painting himself into a corner of "no one will talk to Puma".

d'Kong76 Jun 17 2015 04:30 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Has any player netted anything of value being snippy with the press in New York?

Ceetar Jun 17 2015 04:33 PM Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

d'Kong76 wrote: Has any player netted anything of value being snippy with the press in New York? being snippy with the media is it's own reward.