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Speaking of six-man rotations, pitching is this week's theme at Grantland's "The 30" baseball piece by Jonah Keri, and the Mets are one of the featured teams.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates (26-24, plus-34, LW: 12)
11. New York Mets (28-23, plus-6, LW: 10)
10. Chicago Cubs (26-22, minus-2, LW: 8)
9. Detroit Tigers (28-24, minus-1, LW: 6)
8. Los Angeles Angels (27-24, plus-8, LW: 9)
7. Minnesota Twins (30-19, plus-21, LW: 11)
The Mets’ 2015 season has doubled as a challenge to one of baseball’s eternal truths: You can never have too much starting pitching.
With right-hander Dillon Gee scheduled to come off the disabled list to start Wednesday against the Padres, the Mets will go to a six-man rotation. And the thing is, six spots might not even be enough, as New York has seven starters who look ready for the majors. So let’s take stock of the Seven Samurai:
• The six-man rotation’s main purpose is to protect Matt Harvey. With a strikeout-to-walk ratio greater than six-to-one, the Dark Knight has returned from Tommy John surgery without missing a beat. However, that dominance carries with it a weird curse: There’s no way the Mets can cap Harvey’s innings at around 180 (as the organization had hoped) if their ace keeps pitching seven innings or more per start while part of a five-man rotation. By going to six starters, they’re hoping Harvey can make it through the regular season and potentially into the playoffs (if the Mets make it that far) without hitting his innings cap. Oh, and in case you were wondering, Harvey’s agent, Scott Boras, emphatically approves of this plan.
• Unlike Harvey, Jacob deGrom isn’t on a strict innings limit, but the defending rookie of the year topped his career high in pro ball by tossing 178.2 frames last year. He’s a pivotal part of the rotation, he’s averaging more than six innings a start, and he sports the lowest ERA among Mets starters who’ve been in the rotation since Opening Day. If the team makes it to October, deGrom would be badly needed, so the six-man rotation should help ease concerns of overworking the soon-to-be-27-year-old.
• After a hot start to the season, Bartolo Colon has seen his ERA climb to 4.72. Even still, we’re talking about a pitcher with a 54-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio — elite command that drops Colon’s fielding-independent numbers about a run lower than his ERA. Add in his wildly entertaining at-bats, and Colon is a damn superhero. Nobody’s taking his job.
• Noah Syndergaard’s first four starts in the majors have been as good as any Mets fan could’ve possibly hoped for. Through 24.2 innings, Syndergaard has fanned 22 batters, issued just five walks, allowed one homer, and delivered a 2.55 ERA and 2.57 FIP. His fastball averages nearly 98 mph, and he complements it with a virtually unhittable curve. If taking Colon’s job is tough, stealing Syndergaard’s away could be as challenging as lifting Thor’s hammer.
• Saturday’s rough outing against the Marlins marked the fourth straight start in which Jon Niese has allowed four or more earned runs. He’d never done that at any previous point in his eight-year big league career. Hell, he’d never even done it in three straight starts. His curveball, an important part of Niese’s eclectic, six-pitch repertoire, has looked especially awful, as batters whacked it at a .385 clip in May. Niese hasn’t indicated that he’s hurt, and he allowed one earned run or fewer in five of the six starts before this current ugly stretch, so these struggles could soon pass.
• When healthy and pitching well, Gee is a league-average starter. He’s a pitch-to-contact right-hander who might have unlocked some hidden ability in his first five starts this season, when he posted a career-best 59.2 percent ground-ball rate. That’s a great skill for any team to have in a fifth starter, let alone a sixth starter, but when it comes to the rotation, the Mets are clearly not any team. If Niese’s cold spell ends soon, Gee could find himself as the odd man out.
• With Syndergaard now pitching in the Show, the undisputed best pitching prospect in New York’s system is Steven Matz — and boy is he killing it right now. Working in the pitchers’ nightmare that is Triple-A Las Vegas, Matz has flashed a brilliant 1.98 ERA while striking out 70 batters, walking 23, and allowing just 49 hits and three home runs in 68.1 innings. Matz turned 24 on Friday, he’s put up impressive numbers throughout his minor league career, and he owns three potential major league-quality put-away pitches in his fastball, curve, and changeup. There’s no guarantee Matz will outperform Niese or Gee if the Mets call him up soon, but he’s certainly better than a less-than-100-percent Gee or the Niese we’ve seen over the past few weeks.
As the New York Post’s Ken Davidoff recently wrote, the Mets are a sub-.500 team in games played against teams other than the Phillies, and the schedule will get tougher as the season goes along. Moreover, they’ve gone just 12-15 after a blistering start to the season. Lucas Duda’s emergence has been impressive, but more offensive help is needed, especially with David Wright’s health status still up in the air. An arm-for-bat trade would make tons of sense, even if it doesn’t bring a sought-after name like Troy Tulowitzki to Flushing.
Whatever direction the Mets decide to go in, given the team’s weaknesses and this year’s deep class of NL contenders, sticking with what they currently have in the majors seems like it’d be the wrong call. |
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-t ... -pitching/
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