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PECOTA

Rotblatt Feb 10 2006 11:32 AM

Any BP subscribers check out the PECOTA predictions for the Mets? It kind of hates Heilman, which suprises me. It's very bullish on Julio, which was another surprise. The rest of it all makes sense, although I have higher hopes for Glavine. Tracking those we lost, PECOTA loves the following: Jake (.815 OPS over 584 AB with 29 HR with a 26% breakout rate) Petit (3.77 ERA, 1.17 WHIP as a 21 year old) G. Hernandez (4.19 ERA, 1.34 WHIP as a 20 year old) Petit & Hernandez would be the second- and third-best pitchers on our team, were everyone to match their weighted mean projections. It hates Graves & Mientkeiwicz And is "meh" about: Looper, Cameron, Robo, Seo, Benson & Piazza Here are the weighted mean predictions for our (well my, anyway) starting lineup: Reyes .279 AVG/.317 OBP/.397 SLG/.714 OPS, 57 SB Beltran .283 AVG/.365 OBP/.479 SLG/.844 OPS Wright .299 AVG/.385 OBP/.530 SLG/.915 OPS Delgado .279 AVG/.378 OBP/.525 SLG/.903 OPS Floyd .275 AVG/.359 OBP/.485 SLG/.844 OPS Diaz .271 AVG/.329 OBP/.466 SLG/.795 OPS Nady .274 AVG/.332 OBP/.448 SLG/.780 OPS Castro .236/.311/.423/.734 OPS LoDuca .274/.328/.374/.702 OPS Chase Lambin (best mean average of all our 2B options, according to PECOTA) .247/.315/.408/.723 OPS Rotation Petey 212.7 IP, 2.80 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 206 K, 53 BB Glavine 192.3 IP, 4.19 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 93 K, 59 BB Trachsel 123.3 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 70 K, 40 BB Zambrano 162.7 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 114 K, 78 BB Heilman 123.7 IP, 4.78 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 96 K, 52 BB Pen Wagner 57.3 IP, 2.30 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 59 K, 16 BB Bell 50.7 IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 43 K, 16 BB Julio 59 IP, 3.78 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 50 K, 23 BB Sanchez 63 IP, 3.82 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 44 K, 25 BB Padilla 54.3 IP, 3.94 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 34 K, 17 BB Maclane (L) 149.7 IP, 4.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 84 K, 35 BB So basically, according to PECOTA, we have a nice lineup, an ace followed by average pitchers, and a solid bullpen with a quality closer, which lacks a LOOGY. Our bench would be maybe average--PECTOA doesn't like Woody and isn't crazy about Valentin either. Milledge would make our best fifth outfielder (.718 OPS), although clearly that's not going to happen. Free-agent wise, Weaver would be an upgrade: 4.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 135 K, 50 BB.

Edgy DC Feb 10 2006 12:57 PM

Pecota likes tha notion of a Julio comeback (he almost has to, to some extent), but hates the notion of thinking that Heilman made a 2005 breakthrough. Interesting. I wonder what PECOTA's batting average (so to speak) was for the 2005 Mets.

Frayed Knot Feb 10 2006 01:18 PM

They're projecting those numbers for Gaby Hernandez as a major leaguer???

Rotblatt Feb 10 2006 02:01 PM

Frayed Knot wrote: They're projecting those numbers for Gaby Hernandez as a major leaguer??? ]They're projecting those numbers for Gaby Hernandez as a major leaguer??? Yup. They only have 2 years of data to go on, though, so there's a decent amount of variance in their projections. His 90th percentile is 3.32 ERA, 1.19 WHIP & his 10th percentile is 5.78 ERA & 1.61 WHIP. Compare that to Petey's: 90th: 2.13 ERA, 1.00 WHIP 10th: 3.75 ERA, 1.16 WHIP They really aren't sure what to expect from Gaby, but on average, they think he'll be pretty decent. Something worth noting about Petey's projection was that they had a 0% Attrition rate, which means PECOTA thinks he'll be pretty healthy this year. ]Interesting. I wonder what PECOTA's batting average (so to speak) was for the 2005 Mets. I tried to find their 2005 cards, but I couldn't, and as I wasn't a member last year, I never downloaded the file. I believe they're planning on doing a self-assessment, but I'm not sure when. If anyone has their means from last year, it'd be neat to compare . . .

Frayed Knot Feb 10 2006 02:09 PM

]They really aren't sure what to expect from Gaby, but on average, they think he'll be pretty decent. All of which is pretty irrelevent since there's little chance he'll pitch in the majors this year. Prospectus, of all places, is usually extremely conservative about projecting pitchers and it's tough to imagine they think someone who pitched well in low-A but then stumbled during his brief stint in high-A will actually put up those kind of numbers at the highest level this season!

RealityChuck Feb 10 2006 02:23 PM

Meaningless. PECOTA is just masturbating with numbers.

Rotblatt Feb 10 2006 02:34 PM

Frayed Knot wrote: All of which is pretty irrelevent since there's little chance he'll pitch in the majors this year. Prospectus, of all places, is usually extremely conservative about projecting pitchers and it's tough to imagine they think someone who pitched well in low-A but then stumbled during his brief stint in high-A will actually put up those kind of numbers at the highest level this season! They actually try and translate a pitcher's minor league numbers to major league numbers within a season. For example, Gaby put up a 2.43 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP in Hagerstown last season. According to PECOTA, that would translate as a 4.41 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP in the bigs. When Gaby advanced to St. Lucie, he put up a 5.74 ERA & a 1.37 WHIP, translated to 6.80 ERA & 1.44 WHIP. Given that methodology, it's not all that suprising that they'd think he could be an average pitcher in the majors. Of course, it doesn't really pass the "Is this reasonable" test to suggest that a relatively unheralded 19-year old with one year of pro ball under his belt would outperform 4/5 of our rotation, so I'm guessing their forecasting of first-year prospects is kind of screwy . . .

Frayed Knot Feb 10 2006 02:47 PM

I know what the point of it is. The problem is that PECOTA depends mostly on finding similarities and there just can't be that many for a teenager jumping from low-A to ML for them to compare. I mean it's nice and all that they've got his ML numbers beating out his stint in St. Lucie, but finding a formula (or set of formulas) that works for the majority doesn't always work for the outliers and extremes. That, plus the fact that he's extremely unlikely to pitch above AA ball anyway, makes those projections for him pretty meaningless.