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We Are Fam-i-lia

Frayed Knot
Jul 15 2015 10:31 AM

... I got all my closers with me.

A couple remarks were thrown around last week about feeling more secure with Jeurys in to close games than at any time in recent memory.
So I wondered how that FEELING would stand up to some sort of statistical backing, y'know, like one I could make up on the fly.

What I included: NYM closers for the last 20 seasons, 'closer' being defined by the guy who led the team in saves that year.
The one exception was 1999 when Franco (1st half) and Benitez split the closing duties almost in perfect halves, so in that case I counted both of them giving us 21 rather than 20 'seasons' of data.
In the case of 2015 I'm taking the liberty of extending Familia's stats out so as to project to a full season.

What I looked at: Games pitched, games finished, IP, Saves, Save pct, ERA, WHIP, OPS-Against, K/BB ratio

What I did with it all: Simply ranked each of the above category and assigned points from best (1) to worst (21) in each.
Then sum all the totals, lowest score wins.

Is it perfect?: Fuck no.
- I should take Mejia's starting data out of 2014 but that sounded like too much work.
- There's no leverage involved bad stats are simply bad stats and good are good no matter when/how they came. IOW, no consideration was given to Armando being perfect except for September games vs the Braves when he'd fall apart completely (I mean everyone knows that, right?)
- The two 1999 closers are put at a disadvantage in stuff like G, GF, IP because neither was in that job the whole year - but of course part of being a good closer is to be there the whole time
- These stats, just like any stats, can't tell the whole story.

What I found: We are in fact in the best statistical year for a NYM closer and it's not even close.
Familia ranks (or, more accurately, is projected to rank) 3rd highest in games pitched, 3rd in games finished, 3rd in innings pitched, 1st in saves, 2nd in save pct, 1st in ERA, 2nd in WHIP, 2nd in OPS-A, and 6th in K/BB ratio [3+3+3+1+2+1+2+2+6=23]

You can see the rest below with kind of a log jam there from 4th -7th place placed in no particular order.

CLOSERYEARPoints
FAMILIA2015 - Proj23
BENITEZ200048
WAGNER200652
LOOPER200474
WAGNER200774
BENITEZ200274
BENITEZ1999 (2nd half)74
BENITEZ200178
FRANCO199792
PARNELL201395
RODRIGUEZ201099
WAGNER2008101
RODRIGUEZ2009103
MEJIA2014106
FRANCO1996121
FRANCO1998123
RODRIGUEZ2011141
LOOPER2005144
FRANCO1999 (1st half)145
BENITEZ2003152
FRANCISCO2012160




Top Seasons:
Games: Benitez 1999 (77)
Games finished: Benitez 2000 (68)
Innings: Mejia 2014 (but that's his couple of starts screwing up the data). Without him it's Looper 2004
Saves: Projected for Familia at 49. Now it's Benitez 2001
Save Pct: Benitez 2001 (93%)
ERA: Familia 2015
WHIP: Wagner 2008 (0.89)
OPS-A: Benitez 1999 (496)
K/BB Ratio: Wagner 2008 (5.2/1)

TransMonk
Jul 15 2015 10:36 AM
Re: We Are Fam-i-lia

Holy crap...great work!

I was one who had the FEELING last week. Nice to know it is supported by data. It's still a shame Jeurys wasn't an All-Star.

I hope the sweat-free ninth innings continue.

Edgy MD
Jul 15 2015 10:40 AM
Re: We Are Fam-i-lia

And the thing is, we do have all our closers with us. With injury returns and ended suspensions, the Mets now have the 2015, 2014, and 2013 closers all on the roster at once.

Centerfield
Jul 15 2015 11:36 AM
Re: We Are Fam-i-lia

Awesome work. This is great.

Feelings Confirmed:

Familia is the best. Frank Francisco is the worst. Benitez is up there among the top.


I am surprised that:

Franco is no higher than he is. 2004 Looper is as high as he is. We have a disproportionately high "Fran(c)(k)" percentage.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jul 15 2015 12:17 PM
Re: We Are Fam-i-lia

Looper had a shit opening day and a bad last month but in between he was fine. I still think the Mets should have "went for it" in '05, maybe picking up a guy who could have bolstered the back end along with a real 2B.

Ceetar
Jul 15 2015 12:36 PM
Re: We Are Fam-i-lia

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote:
Looper had a shit opening day and a bad last month but in between he was fine. I still think the Mets should have "went for it" in '05, maybe picking up a guy who could have bolstered the back end along with a real 2B.


if I recall Looper was also secretly injured at the end.

Edgy MD
Jul 15 2015 12:42 PM
Re: We Are Fam-i-lia

Looper had one day where he was suddenly throwing 98 and blowing the opposition away, very uncharacteristically, whereas he had been previously peaking 95 on a good day.

The next day he was hurt, and I confess that I suspected that he had dosed up on some PEDs, briefly became a beast, and blew something out.

Frayed Knot
Jul 15 2015 01:00 PM
Re: We Are Fam-i-lia

My memory of Looper was that he was much better in 2004 than in '05 and this method certainly backs that up: [ERA jumped from 2.70 to 3.92, WHIPs from 1.22 to 1.47, Bl Svs: 5 >> 8, etc.]

It was on Opening Day 2005 where he blew Pedro's 8 inning gem by serving up back-to-back HRs to Adam Dunn and Joe Randa (thus inspiring 'original jb's' infamous "Looper" comment which became a forum staple for a time) and it was because of that game that he seemed to acquire the forever rep among Mets fans as a 'failed' closer as if the entire previous, and pretty good, season had never happened.
He did somewhat bounce back from that start and pitch OK but, as mentioned, he had a rough September (3 of his 8 blown saves ... who did he think he was, Benitez?!?!?!) and, yeah, I remember whispers of injuries and lower radar gun figures.

I thought I remembered him missing a bunch of time after that but he hooked on with StL the very next year (the same team that had originally made him the #3 overall draft pick in 1996) and pitched steadily for the next four seasons although his closing days were finished. After one season of middle relief the Cards (re?) converted him to a starter where he started 30+ games each year (2 w/StL, 1 w/Brewers) with mixed results before calling it a (12 year) career at the age of 35.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jul 15 2015 01:14 PM
Re: We Are Fam-i-lia

Geez, I'd memory-compressed Looper's entire Met career into a single year.

My point about 2005 still stands anywhoo.