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NL CY Race

Frayed Knot
Jul 27 2015 07:15 AM

It's far too early to start dissecting this year's CY Award ... but it's an off-day so I'm going to do it anyway.


PITCHERTEAMSTARTS--IP--- W/L ---ERA---WHIP--K/9--BB/9-
GERRITT COLE PIRATES2013214 - 62.241.088.81.9
JACOB deGROM METS1912710 - 62.050.889.01.6
MAX SCHERZERNATIONALS2014310 - 82.330.8310.41.0
ZACH GREINKE DODGERS201389 - 21.370.837.81.6
CLAYTON KERSHAW DODGERS201408 - 62.510.9411.91.7
MADISON BUMGARNERGIANTS2013111 - 53.161.109.01.8
SHELBY MILLERBRAVES201275 - 72.271.137.62.9
CARLOS MARTINEZCARDINALS1811911 - 42.341.239.13.6
JOHNNY CUETOREDS191317 - 62.620.938.32.0



Probably have to give the edge right now to Greinke with that absurd ERA (which got a touch higher yesterday - heh, heh, heh) and the just-ended streak. And shirley Gerritt Cole will get support by having the best record (plus some pretty durn good peripherals himself). But our boy should be right in the mix along with those two plus Scherzer & Martinez.
Kershaw and Bumgarner have the biggest names though are slightly off their top forms this season while Shelby Miller is going to have to overcome a losing record and Cueto just got shipped to the AL which takes him out of the running.

Edgy MD
Jul 27 2015 07:41 AM
Re: NL CY Race

FanGraphs sees a two-man race at this point, and Greinke, amazingly, isn't among the two, measuring by their WAR numbers. Cole is right out.

[list:2se7qcsq]1) Max Scherzer, Nationals: 4.8
2) Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: 4.7
T3) Zack Greinke, Dodgers: 3.7
T3) Jake Arrieta, Cubs: 3.7
5) Jacob deGrom, Mets: 3.6
6) Gerrit Cole, Pirates: 3.1
T7) Johnny Cueto, Reds: 2.9 and done
T7) Lance Lynn, Cardinals: 2.9
T9) Jon Lester, Cubs: 2.8
T9) Tyson Ross, Padres: 2.8[/list:u:2se7qcsq]

I guess they see his lower strikeout numbers (20th in the league, compared to Kershaw and Scherzer being #1 and #2) as damaging to his case.

Still, that ERA.

Mets – Willets Point
Jul 27 2015 09:23 AM
Re: NL CY Race

I'm surprised there aren't more Mets on this list, but I don't really pay attention to the rest of the league.

Edgy MD
Jul 27 2015 09:30 AM
Re: NL CY Race

Pitcher WAR
deGrom 3.6
Syndergaard 1.9
Harvey 1.8
Colon 1.7
Niese 0.5
Montero 0.3
Gee 0.2
Matz 0.1

Frayed Knot
Jul 27 2015 10:53 AM
Re: NL CY Race

Mets – Willets Point wrote:
I'm surprised there aren't more Mets on this list, but I don't really pay attention to the rest of the league.


Well the original list was just one I made up so others can certainly be added or subtracted. That crew I came up with just seemed like the most likely candidates at this point in the season (while acknowledging that more than 1/3 of the season remains) and I think it's clear that deGrom has been the best hurler to date from our side.
And with CY ballots allowing just five names (used to be only 3) usually only a half-dozen guys get meaningful votes anyway as most of the ballots list pretty much the same names in varying orders.

Frayed Knot
Aug 19 2015 06:26 AM
Re: NL CY Race

Probably still Greinke in the lead, but the gap may be shrinking.



PITCHERTEAMSTARTS--IP--- W/L ---ERA---WHIP--K/9--BB/9-
GERRITT COLEPIRATES2415514 - 72.611.148.92.0
JACOB deGROMMETS2315412 - 61.980.899.21.7
MAX SCHERZERNATIONALS2416511 - 92.730.9010.61.3
ZACH GREINKE DODGERS2416513 - 21.580.878.12.2
CLAYTON KERSHAW DODGERS2416910 - 62.340.9211.31.7
MADISON BUMGARNERGIANTS2416314 - 62.981.049.61.5
SHELBY MILLERBRAVES241525 - 92.431.217.63.1
CARLOS MARTINEZCARDINALS2214212 - 52.591.289.13.2
JAKE ARRIETACUBS2416214 - 62.390.999.12.3

batmagadanleadoff
Aug 19 2015 07:00 AM
Re: NL CY Race

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Aug 19 2015 07:02 AM

Frayed Knot wrote:
Probably still Greinke in the lead, but the gap may be shrinking.



PITCHERTEAMSTARTS--IP--- W/L ---ERA---WHIP--K/9--BB/9-
GERRITT COLEPIRATES2415514 - 72.611.148.92.0
JACOB deGROMMETS2315412 - 61.980.899.21.7
MAX SCHERZERNATIONALS2416511 - 92.730.9010.61.3
ZACH GREINKE DODGERS2416513 - 21.580.878.12.2
CLAYTON KERSHAW DODGERS2416910 - 62.340.9211.31.7
MADISON BUMGARNERGIANTS2416314 - 62.981.049.61.5
SHELBY MILLERBRAVES241525 - 92.431.217.63.1
CARLOS MARTINEZCARDINALS2214212 - 52.591.289.13.2
JAKE ARRIETACUBS2416214 - 62.390.999.12.3


The gap between Greinke and everybody else is shrinking. I'd say that the gap will continue to shrink, but I'm just guessing. Greinke's season, to date, is spectacular --- but hardly unprecedented. And Greinke has a track record. Is your list ordered the way it is for any specific reason, or is the order just sort of random?

Today, I'd vote Greinke, deGrom, then Kershaw.

Frayed Knot
Aug 19 2015 07:02 AM
Re: NL CY Race

Random

Edgy MD
Aug 19 2015 07:29 AM
Re: NL CY Race

Even if the gap in the peripherals shrink, Greinke has an appealing won-loss record. That gap will have to shrink as well, and there's only so much control a man has over that.

On the other hand, deGrom won the Rookie of the Year race with a terrifically strong finish last year.

batmagadanleadoff
Aug 19 2015 07:32 AM
Re: NL CY Race

Edgy MD wrote:
Even if the gap in the peripherals shrink, Greinke has an appealing won-loss record. That gap will have to shrink as well, and there's only so much control a man has over that.

On the other hand, deGrom won the Rookie of the Year race with a terrifically strong finish last year.


And Greinke already has a CYA with a not so traditionally CY-ish W-L record.

On the subject of deGrom, he's by far, my favorite Met. And ever since deGrom's gotten his feet wet last year, he's been about as good as anybody in the game. He might've been baseball's best pitcher over the last month and a half, two months of last season, as good, if not better than even Mr. Kershaw.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Aug 19 2015 07:35 AM
Re: NL CY Race

batmagadanleadoff wrote:
Edgy MD wrote:
Even if the gap in the peripherals shrink, Greinke has an appealing won-loss record. That gap will have to shrink as well, and there's only so much control a man has over that.

On the other hand, deGrom won the Rookie of the Year race with a terrifically strong finish last year.


And Greinke already has a CYA with a not so traditionally CY-ish W-L record.

On the subject of deGrom, he's by far, my favorite Met. And ever since deGrom's gotten his feet wet last year, he's been about as good as anybody in the game. He might've been baseball's best pitcher over the last month and a half, two months of last season, as good, if not better than even Mr. Kershaw.


Indeed.

Ceetar
Aug 19 2015 07:39 AM
Re: NL CY Race

It's mostly cherry picking, they're all so close. Scherzer is right there too. So is Arrieta. And if the Mets manage deGrom's innings I think that hurts him. Being awesome for 20 more IP counts for something.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Aug 19 2015 07:49 AM
Re: NL CY Race

In a race this close the thing that might matter is the team's performance. I know its not supposed to count but you figure in a close call if Greinke's Dodgers or deGrom's Mets go all the way -- or a maybe-likely matchup between them goes one way or the other in the playoffs, then that could carry the vote.

Ceetar
Aug 19 2015 07:51 AM
Re: NL CY Race

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote:
In a race this close the thing that might matter is the team's performance. I know its not supposed to count but you figure in a close call if Greinke's Dodgers or deGrom's Mets go all the way -- or a maybe-likely matchup between them goes one way or the other in the playoffs, then that could carry the vote.


The votes go in before the playoffs don't they?

This might eliminate Scherzer but most of the other guys are gonna make it.

Benjamin Grimm
Aug 19 2015 07:58 AM
Re: NL CY Race

Yes, votes are cast before the playoffs begin.

Vic Sage
Aug 19 2015 08:05 AM
Re: NL CY Race

Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Aug 19 2015 08:59 AM

Top 10 ranked by pitcher's WAR/ NL:

Grienke = 6.97
deGrom = 5.19
Kershaw = 5.01
Scherzer = 4.71
Arrieta = 4.6
Miller = 4.25
Harvey = 4.04
Wacha = 3.29
Cole = 3.2
Lackey = 3.2 [on edit]
Bumgarner = 2.99
C.Martinez =2.91

Edgy MD
Aug 19 2015 08:12 AM
Re: NL CY Race

I got no room in the discussion for Scherzer.

Ceetar
Aug 19 2015 08:16 AM
Re: NL CY Race

Edgy MD wrote:
I got no room in the discussion for Scherzer.


It doesn't really _mean_ anything, but the no hitter is going to play in his favor too.

Vic Sage
Aug 19 2015 08:39 AM
Re: NL CY Race

Regardless, it feels nice to have 2 SPers in the top 7, and another as a serious (if unlikely) ROY candidate.

batmagadanleadoff
Aug 19 2015 08:45 AM
Re: NL CY Race

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagu ... ders.shtml

Vic Sage
Aug 19 2015 08:55 AM
Re: NL CY Race

oops. i missed Lackey (3.2).
Sorry John.

Frayed Knot
Aug 19 2015 09:35 AM
Re: NL CY Race

Bumgarner is starting to make a late season push.

Speaking of which, anybody check out his last two games, the one on Sunday and then last night's as well?
Sunday: CG, 3 H shutout w/1 BB & 14 Ks vs the Nats. Oh yeah and he also HR'd (his 4th of the season!!), 2B'd, scored twice and knocked in 2
Tuesday: Obviously not his night to pitch, so Bochy goes to him as his first guy off the bench to PH in the 7th inning with the Giants leading 1-0. One out/bases empty, he raps a single to LF and later comes around with the 2nd run of the game that the Giants went on to win 2-0 in StL.

Bochy: "Yeah Cards, you may have the best record in MLB and the self-proclaimed best fans. But just because it's a tight game in your house doesn't mean I have to use real hitters against your guy who's got a 3-hitter going. Nope, I'll save them for later after we add to our lead here just to remind you who the REIGNING CHAMPS are."

Frayed Knot
Sep 30 2015 10:37 AM
Re: NL CY Race

This has turned into a 2-man race between Greinke & Arrieta with our boy falling off the back-end somewhere although he could see some 4th or 5th place votes on a couple of ballots.


PITCHERTEAMSTARTS--IP--- W/L ---ERA---WHIP--K/9--BB/9-
GERRITT COLEPIRATES3120118 - 82.601.109.02.0
JACOB deGROMMETS2918714 - 82.600.999.51.7
MAX SCHERZERNATIONALS3222013-122.910.9610.61.4
ZACH GREINKEDODGERS3121518 - 31.680.858.01.6
CLAYTON KERSHAWDODGERS3222916 - 72.160.8911.61.7
MADISON BUMGARNERGIANTS3221818 - 92.931.019.61.6
CARLOS MARTINEZCARDINALS2918014 - 73.011.299.23.2
JAKE ARRIETACUBS3222321 - 61.820.889.21.9

dinosaur jesus
Sep 30 2015 12:46 PM
Re: NL CY Race

Gotta be Arrieta. Wins still trump ERA if the ERA is close. Greinke has that great winning percentage going for him, but Arrieta's is pretty damn good. Plus getting the Cubs to the postseason is the kind of good story that voters like.