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Return of the NHOP

Benjamin Grimm Aug 22 2015 02:02 PM

I remember back in the last decade, when the Mets were last contending for the playoffs, I created a metric called NHOP. (Necessary Happy Outcome Percentage) The NHOP in effect combines the magic number with the number of games remaining, but unlike the magic number, it can go up or down but as with the magic number, the lower the number is, the better. For our purposes, of course, a "happy outcome" is either a Mets win or a Washington loss. As of right now, the Mets and Nationals have a combined 82 games remaining, and we need a happy outcome in 37 (the current magic number) of those games. The current NHOP is, therefore, 0.451 which means that if 45.1 per cent of the games go the right way, the Mets win the division. (Or at least, finish ahead of the Nationals which probably means the same thing.) I backtracked a bit, and this chart shows how the magic number, and the NHOP, have been changing over the last few weeks. Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451

TransMonk Aug 22 2015 02:23 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

I welcome the return of this metric!

Benjamin Grimm Aug 22 2015 03:24 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

The original NHOP thread. I hope it turns out better this time around!

Benjamin Grimm Aug 22 2015 09:48 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

Mets and Nationals both win. Magic number drops by one, from 37 to 36. NHOP drops too, but only slightly, from .451 to .450. Any day the magic number drops is a good day! Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450

Benjamin Grimm Aug 23 2015 08:45 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Baseball Prospectus odds have improved a little bit. NL East title goes from 85.5% to 85.9%, which makes sense. We're a day closer to the end of the season, and the Nationals failed to gain any ground. The Wild Card odds also increased, from 0.2% to 0.3%. That seems a little counter-intuitive, since both the Cubs and Pirates won yesterday, so it should therefore be a little bit harder for the Mets to finish with a better record than one or both of those teams. It also occurred to me that the NHOP numbers above may not be as accurate as they should be. There aren't 80 combined games remaining, because the Mets and Nationals will be playing each other six times in September. That means that the number of games is actually 74, and the numbers will have to be adjusted accordingly. Those six games are also the reason why we shouldn't get overly optimistic yet, because they give the Nationals a real opportunity to turn things around. That's what happened in 2007. The Mets had a four-game series in Philadelphia that started on August 27, and another three-game series at Shea against the Phillies that started on September 14. If the Mets had just won one of those seven games, things would have been very different, but of course, the Phillies won all seven. Fortunately, the two remaining series against Washington are three weeks apart, so if the Mets have a cold streak or the Nationals have a hot streak, it will hopefully encompass only one of those series, but make no mistake, danger is still lurking. The Mets will be in Washington on September 7, 8, and 9. We'll have a better sense of the challenges ahead once that series has ended.

Frayed Knot Aug 23 2015 09:07 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Benjamin Grimm wrote: It also occurred to me that the NHOP numbers above may not be as accurate as they should be. There aren't 80 combined games remaining, because the Mets and Nationals will be playing each other six times in September. That means that the number of games is actually 74, and the numbers will have to be adjusted accordingly. It's essentially like there are 80 games remaining -- 34 Nats game + 34 Mets games + 6 head-to-head match-ups, but those six games automatically count double so I don't think it'll change your odds. All it means is that there'll be six days which are guaranteed to wind up as either a 'Double-Happiness' or 'Double-Sadness' result with no possibility of splitting the baby.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 23 2015 06:01 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

Another good, but not great, day. The Mets win today over the Rockies drops the magic number to 35, with 39 games to play. Because of the Nationals win, the NHOP drops only slightly, from .450 to .449. As the number of remaining games continues to drop, we should start seeing more fluctuation in the NHOP, for better or worse. Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449

Benjamin Grimm Aug 25 2015 06:34 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Since the Nationals were idle, and unable to counter with a win of their own, yesterday's Mets win has a bigger impact on the NHOP, which drops from 0.449 to 0.442. The magic number is now 34. The Mets have 38 games remaining and the Nationals have 39. Baseball Prospectus hasn't updated their odds yet this morning to reflect yesterday's games. I'll have to check in again later. Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442

Benjamin Grimm Aug 25 2015 02:23 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

Baseball Prospectus odds update: Mets are now 88.2% to win the division, 0.2% to win one of the two wild card spots. Their chances of winning the World Series are at 9.2%. There are currently seven first-place teams (because of a tie in the AL East) and here are the World Series odds for all seven teams: Blue Jays 13.8% Dodgers 13.4% Astros 13.2% Cardinals 10.2% Royals 10.1% METS 9.2% Yankees 8.5%

Ceetar Aug 25 2015 09:09 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Baseball Prospectus odds update: Mets are now 88.2% to win the division, 0.2% to win one of the two wild card spots. Their chances of winning the World Series are at 9.2%. There are currently seven first-place teams (because of a tie in the AL East) and here are the World Series odds for all seven teams: Blue Jays 13.8% Dodgers 13.4% Astros 13.2% Cardinals 10.2% Royals 10.1% METS 9.2% Yankees 8.5% decent percent jump. A lot of that has to be Wright on the roster. #Captain.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 26 2015 08:41 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Yesterday the Mets won and the Nationals kept pace. The division lead remains at 5.5 games, one day closer to the end of the season. Magic number drops from 34 to 33. NHOP drops from .442 to .440. Baseball Prospectus increases the Mets division odds slightly, up to 88.8 per cent. Wild card odds remain at 0.2 per cent. World Championship odds drop from 9.2 per cent to 8.8 per cent. Mets ranking among first-place teams: Dodgers 14.8% Astros 14.5% Blue Jays 14.4% Cardinals 10.4% Royals 10.0% METS 8.8% Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440

Benjamin Grimm Aug 27 2015 06:16 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Yesterday was a very good day in the quest for the division title. Mets beat the Phillies, Nationals lose to the Padres. The magic number drops from 33 to 31, and the NHOP drops from .440 to .425. Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440 August 26 70-56 63-62 6.5 31 73 0.425

Benjamin Grimm Aug 27 2015 11:46 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Baseball Prospectus: Mets odds to win the division has jumped to 92.9%, wild card odds drop to 0.1%. Mets ranking among first-place teams, odds for winning World Series: Astros 15.5% Blue Jays 15.2% Dodgers 14.9% Cardinals 10.5% Royals 9.5% METS 9.2%

Benjamin Grimm Aug 27 2015 12:06 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

Oh, and the Mets are now guaranteed to wake up in first place on September 2. The goal, of course, is to push that to October 4.

Frayed Knot Aug 27 2015 12:15 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

NHOP deserves wider exposure.

dgwphotography Aug 27 2015 12:18 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

the return of NHOP makes me nervous...

batmagadanleadoff Aug 27 2015 12:33 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

I love this stat. I don't remember it from the first time around.

Frayed Knot Aug 27 2015 06:11 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

A goofy thought about being 6.5 games up. With just six games remaining between the two teams, the Nats now officially need help to win the division. Even if they were to run the table for the remainder of the season -- which by definition would mean we lose six times -- they still would need us to lose at least once more. Of course the fact that that's happening as I type pretty much makes this sentiment moot (as if it wasn't already).

Edgy MD Aug 27 2015 07:42 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

No, it ain't moot until the last out, says d'Arnaud and Cespedes and Johnson.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 28 2015 05:39 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

The Mets and Nationals both won yesterday, which means that the NHOP has a more modest decline than it did the day before, dropping from .425 to .423. The magic number decreases from 31 to 30. The Mets can now be sure that they'll wake up on the morning of September 3 in first place. That date, by the way, is the next scheduled date when the Mets are off and the Nationals are not. Barring rainouts, of course, next Thursday the Nationals will be caught up with the Mets in the number of games played, but hopefully well behind them in the number of games won. It's at that point that the ".5" will disappear from the games behind column in the standings. Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440 August 26 70-56 63-62 6.5 31 73 0.425 August 27 71-56 64-62 6.5 30 71 0.423

batmagadanleadoff Aug 28 2015 11:25 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440 August 26 70-56 63-62 6.5 31 73 0.425 August 27 71-56 64-62 6.5 30 71 0.423 Here's another amazing thing about this Mets run -- over the past almost an entire month now --- there have been only three days (August 6, 8 and 19) when the Nats gained ground on the Mets (see chart, above -- "Mets Lead" column). The Nats haven't been able to gain as much as half a game on the Mets, now, in almost a week and a half.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 28 2015 03:02 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

Latest from Baseball Prospectus: Mets odds to win the NL East go from 92.9% to 93.1%. Odds for the wild card are 0.2%. Odds to win the World Series edge upwards a little, from 9.2% to 9.5% Odds to win World Series Astros 15.3% Dodgers 14.9% Blue Jays 14.6% Cardinals 10.7% Royals 9.8% METS 9.5%

Benjamin Grimm Aug 29 2015 04:05 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

The Mets lost yesterday, but still on balance a good day, because the Nationals lost too, which reduces the magic number from 30 to 29, and the NHOP from .423 to .420. The Mets will be in first place when the sun rises on Friday, September 4. Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440 August 26 70-56 63-62 6.5 31 73 0.425 August 27 71-56 64-62 6.5 30 71 0.423 August 28 71-57 64-63 6.5 29 69 0.420

Edgy MD Aug 29 2015 06:50 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

I appreciate a fine new metric, but this thread keeps making me want pancakes.

Frayed Knot Aug 29 2015 06:55 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Especially once President Trump kicks out all the immigrant workers and they're forced to re-name the place the [u:1zb2yxco]National[/u:1zb2yxco] House of Pancakes.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 29 2015 09:45 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

Today was our first bad day in a while. Mets lose, Nationals defeat that drooling simpleton Tom Koehler and the division lead drops back to 5.5 games. Magic number remains at 29, NHOP spikes from .420 to .433. A Mets win and a Washington loss on Sunday would undo today's setback. Let's make it happen! Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440 August 26 70-56 63-62 6.5 31 73 0.425 August 27 71-56 64-62 6.5 30 71 0.423 August 28 71-57 64-63 6.5 29 69 0.420 August 29 71-58 65-63 5.5 29 67 0.433

Edgy MD Aug 29 2015 10:18 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

It's the drooling. What drives me crazy about Koehler is the drooling. You grew up in New Rochelle, man, act like somebody who's been let out of the house on occasion.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 31 2015 04:24 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Sunday was a good day, in that the Mets won and dropped the magic number from 29 to 28, and the NHOP declined slightly from .433 to .431. Because the Nationals won, the Mets weren't able to reverse the setback of the previous day. But maybe they'll be able to do that tonight. The Mets will be hosting the Phillies and the Nationals will be in St. Louis to play the Cardinals. Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440 August 26 70-56 63-62 6.5 31 73 0.425 August 27 71-56 64-62 6.5 30 71 0.423 August 28 71-57 64-63 6.5 29 69 0.420 August 29 71-58 65-63 5.5 29 67 0.433 August 30 72-58 66-63 5.5 28 65 0.431

Benjamin Grimm Aug 31 2015 07:04 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Baseball Prospectus odds update: Mets at 90.5 per cent to win the division, 0.3 per cent for the Wild Card, 9.2 per cent for the World Championship. Tragic Numbers: Phillies 12. Marlins 12. Braves 15. Nationals 28.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 01 2015 06:19 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Yesterday was a very good day, with the Mets winning and Washington losing, effectively reversing the setback that occurred on Saturday. The magic number drops from 28 to 26, and the NHOP makes its steepest decline of the year so far, dropping from .431 to .413, a season low. Also, the Mets are now guaranteed to be in first place when they arrive in Washington on Labor Day. Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440 August 26 70-56 63-62 6.5 31 73 0.425 August 27 71-56 64-62 6.5 30 71 0.423 August 28 71-57 64-63 6.5 29 69 0.420 August 29 71-58 65-63 5.5 29 67 0.433 August 30 72-58 66-63 5.5 28 65 0.431 August 31 73-58 66-64 6.5 26 63 0.413

Edgy MD Sep 01 2015 06:22 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Clinching Labor Day has its appeal, as does a .413.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 01 2015 02:52 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

According to Baseball Prospectus, the Mets odds to win the division are now at 93.5 per cent, and their wild card odds have increased to 0.4 per cent. Odds to win the World Series are at 9.3 per cent. Baseball Prospectus World Championship odds for current first-place teams: Dodgers 16.1% Blue Jays 15.6% Astros 14.8% Cardinals 11.0% Mets 9.3% Royals 9.3% In the race for home field advantage in the NLDS (if the matchups remain as they currently are) the Mets are a half game behind the Dodgers. (Mets are 73-58, Dodgers are 73-57.) NL East Tragic Numbers update: Phillies 10, Marlins 11, Braves 13, Nationals 26. (EDITED TO FIX PHILLIES TRAGIC NUMBER)

Ceetar Sep 01 2015 03:08 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

Benjamin Grimm wrote: NL East Tragic Numbers update: Phillies 9, Marlins 11, Braves 13, Nationals 26. Phillies are 10 for the Division, 9 for the WC I believe. Phillies are leading the race to be eliminated from Postseason play.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 01 2015 03:13 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

You're right. Phillies tragic number has been corrected. Thanks!

Benjamin Grimm Sep 02 2015 04:24 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Yesterday was a bad day for the Mets on the field, but a worse day for the Nationals, which, on balance, makes it a good day for the Mets. We're one day closer to the end of the season, and the Mets maintained their 6.5-game lead, reducing the magic number from 26 to 25, and the NHOP from .413 to .410. Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440 August 26 70-56 63-62 6.5 31 73 0.425 August 27 71-56 64-62 6.5 30 71 0.423 August 28 71-57 64-63 6.5 29 69 0.420 August 29 71-58 65-63 5.5 29 67 0.433 August 30 72-58 66-63 5.5 28 65 0.431 August 31 73-58 66-64 6.5 26 63 0.413 September 1 73-59 66-65 6.5 25 61 0.410

batmagadanleadoff Sep 02 2015 10:35 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

NHOP does a terrific job of tracking or correlating to Baseball Prospectus's playoffs odds. The correlation is extremely strong (I've been following this for the last week, week and a half). It's an inverse correlation, as it should be -- as NHOP goes down, the odds for the Mets to win their division increases. But while NHOP was reduced yesterday, given the Nats loss, BP lowered its Mets division odds from 93.5% to 92.6%. I'm not sure why -- intuitively, I'd assume that at this late stage in the season, the Mets division odds should increase on any day that the magic number is reduced. I suppose that BP factors in trends, perhaps giving some extra weight to the team's most recent performance -- here, the Mets lost three out of their last five. But on the other hand, the Nats haven't been able to gain a single half game standings-wise over that span. So go figure.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 02 2015 11:10 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Maybe because yesterday the Nationals lost a game that they had been expected to lose, but the Mets lost a game they had been expected to win? Just guessing here...

Ceetar Sep 02 2015 11:13 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Maybe because yesterday the Nationals lost a game that they had been expected to lose, but the Mets lost a game they had been expected to win? Just guessing here... yeah, that's probably it. lead didn't change but Nationals strength of schedule dropped and Mets got more difficult.

batmagadanleadoff Sep 02 2015 12:04 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Maybe because yesterday the Nationals lost a game that they had been expected to lose, but the Mets lost a game they had been expected to win? Just guessing here... It's as good a guess as anything I considered. Obviously, NHOP and magic number calculations are simple and straightforward, treating every game played equally, while BP's playoffs odds formula is a complex algorithm made up of many variables.

Frayed Knot Sep 02 2015 12:42 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

The part of BP's numbers that I'm not getting is their WS odds. Not bitching about it or anything, just wondering how they came up with them. The randomness of post-season outcomes, particularly before you even know the match-ups, seems to not lend itself to this kind of analysis and it's odd that the best teams in each league sit and 4th & 6th best chances in their view only somewhat better than half of the most likely winners.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 02 2015 12:46 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

That struck me as odd as well. I'm guessing that they don't think the Royals match up well against the Blue Jays, or the Cardinals against the Dodgers. Each team has very high odds (close to 100 per cent) of making the playoffs so their current division leads won't be a factor in how they'd perform in the postseason series.

Ceetar Sep 02 2015 12:53 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

They absolutely use player projection systems so the varied ranking of teams is at least partially on what THEY think are the best teams, not necessarily what the record is.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 03 2015 06:01 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Yesterday the Mets and Nationals both won. The magic number drops by one, to 24. The NHOP declines as well, from .410 to .407, a new season low. Today the Mets are idle while the Nationals play the Braves. The magic number may or may not change, but the NHOP will. When the Mets wake up in Washington on Wednesday, September 9, the day of the final game of the three-game series against the Nationals, they will be in first place. Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440 August 26 70-56 63-62 6.5 31 73 0.425 August 27 71-56 64-62 6.5 30 71 0.423 August 28 71-57 64-63 6.5 29 69 0.420 August 29 71-58 65-63 5.5 29 67 0.433 August 30 72-58 66-63 5.5 28 65 0.431 August 31 73-58 66-64 6.5 26 63 0.413 September 1 73-59 66-65 6.5 25 61 0.410 September 2 74-59 67-65 6.5 24 59 0.407

Centerfield Sep 03 2015 07:22 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

I have to think our NHOP will rise today. Braves can't beat anyone.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 03 2015 02:35 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

From Baseball Prospectus: The Mets odds to win the division have declined a bit. It's currently 92.8% for the NL East and up to 0.5% for the wild card. World Series odds have increased to 9.4%, still the lowest of any division leader. Royals have gone up to 10.2%, Dodgers are way up at 17.2%. Tragic Number updates: Phillies 8, Marlins 10, Braves 10, Nationals 24.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 04 2015 04:35 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

The Mets were idle yesterday, and Washington beat Atlanta, so the NHOP rises. Had the Nationals lost, the NHOP would have dropped below .400 for the first time. Oh well. Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440 August 26 70-56 63-62 6.5 31 73 0.425 August 27 71-56 64-62 6.5 30 71 0.423 August 28 71-57 64-63 6.5 29 69 0.420 August 29 71-58 65-63 5.5 29 67 0.433 August 30 72-58 66-63 5.5 28 65 0.431 August 31 73-58 66-64 6.5 26 63 0.413 September 1 73-59 66-65 6.5 25 61 0.410 September 2 74-59 67-65 6.5 24 59 0.407 September 3 74-59 68-65 6 24 58 0.414

Edgy MD Sep 04 2015 05:55 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

That's OK, just... well... it's not a good day for Tom Koehler to end his funk.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 05 2015 05:28 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

A very bad day yesterday. There is no joy in updating this chart this morning. Mets lose a walkoff in Miami and the Nationals win a walkoff at home against the Braves. Magic number remains at 24, the division lead drops to 5 games, and the NHOP rises to .429. The Nationals have now won three in a row. With the Mets set to arrive in Washington the day after tomorrow, this could be a very dangerous time for the Nationals to be gaining momentum. Fasten your seatbelts! Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440 August 26 70-56 63-62 6.5 31 73 0.425 August 27 71-56 64-62 6.5 30 71 0.423 August 28 71-57 64-63 6.5 29 69 0.420 August 29 71-58 65-63 5.5 29 67 0.433 August 30 72-58 66-63 5.5 28 65 0.431 August 31 73-58 66-64 6.5 26 63 0.413 September 1 73-59 66-65 6.5 25 61 0.410 September 2 74-59 67-65 6.5 24 59 0.407 September 3 74-59 68-65 6 24 58 0.414 September 4 74-60 69-65 5 24 56 0.429

Benjamin Grimm Sep 06 2015 04:48 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Well, the Mets didn't immediately reverse Friday night's setback, but Saturday was a good day. Mets won, reducing the magic number to 23 and the NHOP to .426. The Mets can at least be assured of still being in first place when their upcoming three-game series in Washington has concluded. Let's see what today brings. The Mets will open their series in DC with a lead of either 4, 5, or 6 games. If it's 6, I can see being content with just winning one of three games. If it's 4, then taking two of three will be imperative. Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440 August 26 70-56 63-62 6.5 31 73 0.425 August 27 71-56 64-62 6.5 30 71 0.423 August 28 71-57 64-63 6.5 29 69 0.420 August 29 71-58 65-63 5.5 29 67 0.433 August 30 72-58 66-63 5.5 28 65 0.431 August 31 73-58 66-64 6.5 26 63 0.413 September 1 73-59 66-65 6.5 25 61 0.410 September 2 74-59 67-65 6.5 24 59 0.407 September 3 74-59 68-65 6 24 58 0.414 September 4 74-60 69-65 5 24 56 0.429 September 5 75-60 70-65 5 23 54 0.426

Benjamin Grimm Sep 07 2015 05:33 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Yesterday was another very bad day. The lead drops to 4 games and the NHOP rises to .442. After this three-game series with the Nationals ends, the Mets will still be in first place, but by how wide a margin? It will either be 1 game, 3 games, 5 games, or 7 games. In other words, the Mets will have to sweep the Nationals to get their lead back to (roughly) where it was five days ago. Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440 August 26 70-56 63-62 6.5 31 73 0.425 August 27 71-56 64-62 6.5 30 71 0.423 August 28 71-57 64-63 6.5 29 69 0.420 August 29 71-58 65-63 5.5 29 67 0.433 August 30 72-58 66-63 5.5 28 65 0.431 August 31 73-58 66-64 6.5 26 63 0.413 September 1 73-59 66-65 6.5 25 61 0.410 September 2 74-59 67-65 6.5 24 59 0.407 September 3 74-59 68-65 6 24 58 0.414 September 4 74-60 69-65 5 24 56 0.429 September 5 75-60 70-65 5 23 54 0.426 September 6 75-61 71-65 4 23 52 0.442

Benjamin Grimm Sep 08 2015 05:53 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

A very bad Sunday is followed up by a very good Monday, as the Mets draw first blood in their three-game series in DC. Getting swept would have been very very bad, and eliminating that possibility in the very first game was huge. The magic number drops from 23 to 21. The NHOP drops by 22 points, from .442 to .420. The Mets will still be in first place on the morning of Saturday, September 12. Before Monday's win, Baseball Prospectus had the Mets at 84.5% to win the division and 0.3% for the wild card. We'll see later today how much the win over the Nationals improved those odds. Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440 August 26 70-56 63-62 6.5 31 73 0.425 August 27 71-56 64-62 6.5 30 71 0.423 August 28 71-57 64-63 6.5 29 69 0.420 August 29 71-58 65-63 5.5 29 67 0.433 August 30 72-58 66-63 5.5 28 65 0.431 August 31 73-58 66-64 6.5 26 63 0.413 September 1 73-59 66-65 6.5 25 61 0.410 September 2 74-59 67-65 6.5 24 59 0.407 September 3 74-59 68-65 6 24 58 0.414 September 4 74-60 69-65 5 24 56 0.429 September 5 75-60 70-65 5 23 54 0.426 September 6 75-61 71-65 4 23 52 0.442 September 7 76-61 71-66 5 21 50 0.420

Edgy MD Sep 08 2015 06:54 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

A 22-point decline is a season high.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 08 2015 07:18 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

As the denominator (number of games remaining) continues to decline, the NHOP will have larger and larger fluctuations.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 08 2015 09:24 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

With today's update from Baseball Prospectus, the Mets odds for the NL East are now at 90.3%, and 0.1% for the wild card. They're at 9.4% to win the World Series. World Championship odds for current division leaders. The Mets have somehow moved ahead of both Missouri teams. Dodgers 18.5% Blue Jays 15.6% Astros 14.0% Mets 9.4% Cardinals 9.3% Royals 9.2% NL East Tragic Number update: Phillies 2, Braves 4, Marlins 6, Nationals 21.

Edgy MD Sep 08 2015 09:30 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

I don't get how the Cards have won five-10 games more than any of the other leaders, yet the oddsmakers are so bearish.

HahnSolo Sep 08 2015 09:40 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Maybe because they'd potentially get the next toughest NL team (by record) in the best-of-5 series?

Frayed Knot Sep 08 2015 10:44 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Benjamin Grimm wrote: With today's update from Baseball Prospectus, the Mets odds for the NL East are now at 90.3%, and 0.1% for the wild card. They're at 9.4% to win the World Series. I saw something from ESPN that had the NL East at more like 85%/15% ... but various mileage may vary in its variations.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 08 2015 11:04 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Upcoming schedule for Mets and Nationals: Mets Nationals September 8 At Washington Mets September 9 At Washington Mets September 10 At Atlanta September 11 At Atlanta At Miami September 12 At Atlanta At Miami September 13 At Atlanta At Miami September 14 Miami At Philadelphia September 15 Miami At Philadelphia September 16 Miami At Philadelphia September 17 Miami September 18 New York (AL) Miami September 19 New York (AL) Miami September 20 New York (AL) Miami September 21 Atlanta Baltimore September 22 Atlanta Baltimore September 23 Atlanta Baltimore September 24 At Cincinnati September 25 At Cincinnati Philadelphia September 26 At Cincinnati Philadelphia September 27 At Cincinnati Philadelphia September 28 Cincinnati September 29 At Philadelphia At Atlanta September 30 At Philadelphia At Atlanta October 1 At Philadelphia At Atlanta October 2 Washington At Mets October 3 Washington At Mets October 4 Washington At Mets

Frayed Knot Sep 08 2015 11:13 AM Re: Return of the NHOP Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Sep 08 2015 11:26 AM

Damn, I was so focused on this series I forgot about the last one with the Nats. I mean I knew that we HAD one more series with them, I had just somehow forgotten that it was the final three days. That it is the final weekend makes things both better and worse. Better in that it's easier to put the title out of reach before ever reaching that point, if for no other reason than they can't have a say in it beyond tomorrow. But if the race is within three games then it's essentially like having three extra post-season games tacked on.

Ceetar Sep 08 2015 11:15 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

the worst would be for them to hit that series 3up. So close yet technically still disastrous.

Frayed Knot Sep 08 2015 11:32 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Jose Fernandez expected to return to the Marlins rotation on Saturday, which means: A) the Nats get him as they'll be in Miami for the weekend B) we won't as our series with them follows right after C) they might get him AGAIN in his very next start (Sept 17) I think we've missed him every time this year (hell, he's only made 7 starts). In fact we've gotten lucky on a bunch of occasions this season in missing aces.

Edgy MD Sep 08 2015 11:38 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

That's another reason yesterday was so hewj. The Mets haven't been tested in fire as much as some other teams — much less been tested in fire and come out on top.

Lefty Specialist Sep 08 2015 11:49 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Frayed Knot wrote: Jose Fernandez expected to return to the Marlins rotation on Saturday, which means: A) the Nats get him as they'll be in Miami for the weekend B) we won't as our series with them follows right after C) they might get him AGAIN in his very next start (Sept 17) I think we've missed him every time this year (hell, he's only made 7 starts). In fact we've gotten lucky on a bunch of occasions this season in missing aces. That's a big deal. When he's pitched, he's been lights out. And if the Marlins can cuff the Mets around, the least they can do is cuff around the Nats a bit, too.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 08 2015 08:33 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

Hell, I'm not going to wait until tomorrow morning to post this! In the second game of the series in Washington the Mets roar back from a 7-1 deficit to win 8-7. This Nationals loss has to be categorized as a "cock punch". Magic number drops from 21 to 19, the NHOP drops to its lowest point of the season, going from .420 to .396. At worst, the Mets will leave Washington with a 5-game lead, and that's pretty damn good. And they have a chance to make that a 7-game lead with tomorrow's game, which would be a season high. This series, which could have spelled disaster, now most definitely won't. Go to your calendar and draw a big happy face on September 8, 2015. Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440 August 26 70-56 63-62 6.5 31 73 0.425 August 27 71-56 64-62 6.5 30 71 0.423 August 28 71-57 64-63 6.5 29 69 0.420 August 29 71-58 65-63 5.5 29 67 0.433 August 30 72-58 66-63 5.5 28 65 0.431 August 31 73-58 66-64 6.5 26 63 0.413 September 1 73-59 66-65 6.5 25 61 0.410 September 2 74-59 67-65 6.5 24 59 0.407 September 3 74-59 68-65 6 24 58 0.414 September 4 74-60 69-65 5 24 56 0.429 September 5 75-60 70-65 5 23 54 0.426 September 6 75-61 71-65 4 23 52 0.442 September 7 76-61 71-66 5 21 50 0.420 September 8 77-61 71-67 6 19 48 0.396

Benjamin Grimm Sep 09 2015 02:35 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

From Baseball Prospectus: Mets NL East odds go from 90.3% to 94.7% with yesterday's win over the Nationals. Wild card odds remain at 0.1%. World Championship odds for division leaders: [list:rsjeccpl]Dodgers 18.7% Blue Jays 17.0% Astros 12.9% Mets 9.9% Royals 9.3% Cardinals 8.8%[/list:u:rsjeccpl] NL East Tragic Numbers: Phillies 1, Braves 2, Marlins 5, Nationals 19.

Ceetar Sep 09 2015 02:36 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

Benjamin Grimm wrote: NL East Tragic Numbers: Phillies 1, Braves 2, Marlins 5, Nationals 19. Phillies win over Braves and Mets win, we get a two-fer on the elimination front.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 09 2015 07:58 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

Things were starting to look a little dicey a few days ago. The Mets had lost two of three in Miami as the Braves were sweeping a four games series against Atlanta. As this series in DC was about to start, the Mets were 4 games ahead of the Nationals and, by today, could have had their lead shrunk to a single game. But that didn't happen. At all! With the conclusion of this invigorating sweep of the Nationals on their turf, the lead has grown to a season-high 7 games, the magic number has dropped to 17, and the NHOP, which was at .442 at the conclusion of Sunday's action, has quickly plummeted to .370. Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440 August 26 70-56 63-62 6.5 31 73 0.425 August 27 71-56 64-62 6.5 30 71 0.423 August 28 71-57 64-63 6.5 29 69 0.420 August 29 71-58 65-63 5.5 29 67 0.433 August 30 72-58 66-63 5.5 28 65 0.431 August 31 73-58 66-64 6.5 26 63 0.413 September 1 73-59 66-65 6.5 25 61 0.410 September 2 74-59 67-65 6.5 24 59 0.407 September 3 74-59 68-65 6 24 58 0.414 September 4 74-60 69-65 5 24 56 0.429 September 5 75-60 70-65 5 23 54 0.426 September 6 75-61 71-65 4 23 52 0.442 September 7 76-61 71-66 5 21 50 0.420 September 8 77-61 71-67 6 19 48 0.396 September 9 78-61 71-68 7 17 46 0.370

Frayed Knot Sep 09 2015 08:01 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

10-13 would force the Nats to go 17-6 just to force a tie. And if we go 10-13 vs the sked we've got in front of us then we deserve to get our asses scared of needing to win a play-in game.

Ceetar Sep 09 2015 08:09 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

Phillies are done.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 10 2015 07:01 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

For the past couple of weeks I've been looking ahead to the morning of September 10, using this date as a touchstone that would allow us to contemplate the task ahead once the three-game series in Washington was behind us. The verdict: things look awfully good right now. My unofficial (and fairly modest) goal for the Mets is to get the magic number reduced to 13 or less by the end of Sunday's action. Baseball Prospectus update: The Mets odds to win the National League East are now at 97.6%. Odds for the wild card are 0.0%, but the Mets overall playoff odds, which is usually the sum of the two, is at 97.7%. (This is, I'm sure, due to rounding.) World Championship odds for division leaders: Dodgers 18.5% Blue Jays 16.2% Astros 14.4% Mets 10.3% Royals 9.4% Cardinals 8.8% NL East Tragic Numbers: [crossout]Phillies[/crossout], Braves 1, Marlins 4, Nationals 17. The Mets, by the way, are guaranteed to wake up in first place on Thursday, September 17. Upcoming schedule for Mets and Nationals: Mets Nationals September 10 At Atlanta September 11 At Atlanta At Miami September 12 At Atlanta At Miami September 13 At Atlanta At Miami September 14 Miami At Philadelphia September 15 Miami At Philadelphia September 16 Miami At Philadelphia September 17 Miami September 18 New York (AL) Miami September 19 New York (AL) Miami September 20 New York (AL) Miami September 21 Atlanta Baltimore September 22 Atlanta Baltimore September 23 Atlanta Baltimore September 24 At Cincinnati September 25 At Cincinnati Philadelphia September 26 At Cincinnati Philadelphia September 27 At Cincinnati Philadelphia September 28 Cincinnati September 29 At Philadelphia At Atlanta September 30 At Philadelphia At Atlanta October 1 At Philadelphia At Atlanta October 2 Washington At Mets October 3 Washington At Mets October 4 Washington At Mets

Centerfield Sep 10 2015 09:04 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

I like that we will likely personally eliminate Atlanta this weekend. Also, depending on how things break, we may be able to follow that up by personally eliminating the Marlins right afterwards.

Edgy MD Sep 10 2015 09:24 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

I had some gastric pain last weekend where it seemed like I was trying to personally eliminate Atlanta. Don't ask.

Ceetar Sep 10 2015 09:34 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Edgy MD wrote: I had some gastric pain last weekend where it seemed like I was trying to personally eliminate Atlanta. Don't ask. sounds awfully brave of you.

Fman99 Sep 10 2015 10:19 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Centerfield wrote: I like that we will likely personally eliminate Atlanta this weekend. Also, depending on how things break, we may be able to follow that up by personally eliminating the Marlins right afterwards. So, what you're saying is, kill KILL KILL?

Benjamin Grimm Sep 11 2015 04:35 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

The Nationals had the day off yesterday and the Mets won in Atlanta. The magic number drops to 16, and the NHOP continues to plummet, going from .370 to .356, a new season low. The Mets lead the National League East by 7.5 games, with 22 games remaining on the schedule. Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440 August 26 70-56 63-62 6.5 31 73 0.425 August 27 71-56 64-62 6.5 30 71 0.423 August 28 71-57 64-63 6.5 29 69 0.420 August 29 71-58 65-63 5.5 29 67 0.433 August 30 72-58 66-63 5.5 28 65 0.431 August 31 73-58 66-64 6.5 26 63 0.413 September 1 73-59 66-65 6.5 25 61 0.410 September 2 74-59 67-65 6.5 24 59 0.407 September 3 74-59 68-65 6 24 58 0.414 September 4 74-60 69-65 5 24 56 0.429 September 5 75-60 70-65 5 23 54 0.426 September 6 75-61 71-65 4 23 52 0.442 September 7 76-61 71-66 5 21 50 0.420 September 8 77-61 71-67 6 19 48 0.396 September 9 78-61 71-68 7 17 46 0.370 September 10 79-61 71-68 7.5 16 45 0.356

Lefty Specialist Sep 11 2015 06:20 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Edgy MD wrote: I had some gastric pain last weekend where it seemed like I was trying to personally eliminate Atlanta. Don't ask. Probably should have taken some Mylanta.

Edgy MD Sep 11 2015 06:32 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

That's pretty good.

Lefty Specialist Sep 11 2015 06:41 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

It was a hanging slider. Had to swing.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 11 2015 07:19 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Baseball Prospectus update: The Mets odds for winning the NL East are now at 98.8%. They're at 0.0% for the wild card. (The Nationals and Giants each have less than 1 per cent chance at the wild card. The only teams with significant wild card odds are in the NL Central: Cardinals 13.4%, Pirates 88.7%, and the Cubs, 97.1%. Interesting that the Cubs, who are 2.5 games behind Pittsburgh and 7 games behind St. Louis, have the best wild card odds. Of course, the thing that reduces the Cardinals' odds of winning a wild card berth is their likelihood of winning the division title. Their odds for the NL Central title are currently at 86.6%.) World Championship odds for current division leaders. Mets have reached a new high, of 11.1%. Their most likely first-round opponent, the Dodgers, have the best odds of all. Dodgers 18.7% Blue Jays 16.2% Astros 14.8% Mets 11.1% Royals 9.0% Cardinals 8.4% NL East Tragic Numbers: [crossout:3afptlu9]Phillies[/crossout:3afptlu9], [crossout:3afptlu9]Braves[/crossout:3afptlu9], Marlins 3, Nationals 16.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 11 2015 09:16 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

What's there to say? Mets win in Atlanta. Nationals lose in Miami. The division lead grows to 8.5 games. The magic number drops from 16 to 14. The NHOP takes another dive as well, from .356 to .326, a new season low. Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440 August 26 70-56 63-62 6.5 31 73 0.425 August 27 71-56 64-62 6.5 30 71 0.423 August 28 71-57 64-63 6.5 29 69 0.420 August 29 71-58 65-63 5.5 29 67 0.433 August 30 72-58 66-63 5.5 28 65 0.431 August 31 73-58 66-64 6.5 26 63 0.413 September 1 73-59 66-65 6.5 25 61 0.410 September 2 74-59 67-65 6.5 24 59 0.407 September 3 74-59 68-65 6 24 58 0.414 September 4 74-60 69-65 5 24 56 0.429 September 5 75-60 70-65 5 23 54 0.426 September 6 75-61 71-65 4 23 52 0.442 September 7 76-61 71-66 5 21 50 0.420 September 8 77-61 71-67 6 19 48 0.396 September 9 78-61 71-68 7 17 46 0.370 September 10 79-61 71-68 7.5 16 45 0.356 September 11 80-61 71-69 8.5 14 43 0.326

Lefty Specialist Sep 11 2015 09:23 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

Only 8 in the loss column, though. :) Tonight was the first time I allowed myself to say out loud in front of witnesses, "Yeah, they've got this."

Benjamin Grimm Sep 12 2015 08:21 AM Re: Return of the NHOP

Baseball Prospectus update: The Mets playoff odds have risen to a point where they can no longer get significantly higher. Odds to win the NL East are now at 99.3%. Nationals are at 0.7% for the division, 0.1% for the wild card. World Championship odds for current division leaders: [list:2n3if46r]Blue Jays 17.9% Dodgers 17.6% Astros 13.8% Mets 10.9% Royals 9.0% Cardinals 8.7%[/list:u:2n3if46r] Looking at that list, a seemingly random list of American and National League teams, kind of reminds me of a list of team names in a local Little League. NL East Tragic Numbers: [crossout:2n3if46r]Phillies[/crossout:2n3if46r], [crossout:2n3if46r]Braves[/crossout:2n3if46r], Marlins 2, Nationals 14. In the race for home-field advantage in the NLDS, the Mets (80-61) are only a half game behind the Dodgers (80-60).

Benjamin Grimm Sep 12 2015 08:37 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

This thread is quickly becoming rather pointless, but I'll see it through to the end anyway. Once again, the Mets win and the Nationals lose. The division lead is up to 9.5 games, the magic number drops to 12, and the NHOP takes yet another steep dive, from .326 to .293. The NHOP is, for the first time this year, lower than at any point in the ill-fated 2007 season. The last time the Mets had an NHOP lower than .293 was in 2006 when they succeeded in getting it all the way down to zero. Date Mets Record Nationals Record Mets Lead Magic Number Games Remaining NHOP August 3 56-50 54-50 1 57 114 0.500 August 4 57-50 55-50 1 56 112 0.500 August 5 58-50 55-51 2 54 110 0.491 August 6 58-50 56-51 1.5 54 109 0.495 August 7 59-50 56-52 2.5 52 107 0.486 August 8 59-51 57-52 1.5 52 105 0.495 August 9 59-52 57-53 1.5 51 103 0.495 August 10 60-52 58-53 1.5 50 101 0.495 August 11 61-52 58-54 2.5 48 99 0.485 August 12 62-52 58-55 3.5 46 97 0.474 August 13 63-52 58-56 4.5 44 95 0.463 August 14 63-53 58-57 4.5 43 93 0.462 August 15 63-54 58-58 4.5 42 91 0.462 August 16 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 17 63-55 58-59 4.5 41 89 0.461 August 18 64-55 59-59 4.5 40 87 0.460 August 19 64-56 60-59 3.5 40 85 0.471 August 20 64-56 60-60 4 39 84 0.464 August 21 65-56 60-61 5 37 82 0.451 August 22 66-56 61-61 5 36 80 0.450 August 23 67-56 62-61 5 35 78 0.449 August 24 68-56 62-61 5.5 34 77 0.442 August 25 69-56 63-61 5.5 33 75 0.440 August 26 70-56 63-62 6.5 31 73 0.425 August 27 71-56 64-62 6.5 30 71 0.423 August 28 71-57 64-63 6.5 29 69 0.420 August 29 71-58 65-63 5.5 29 67 0.433 August 30 72-58 66-63 5.5 28 65 0.431 August 31 73-58 66-64 6.5 26 63 0.413 September 1 73-59 66-65 6.5 25 61 0.410 September 2 74-59 67-65 6.5 24 59 0.407 September 3 74-59 68-65 6 24 58 0.414 September 4 74-60 69-65 5 24 56 0.429 September 5 75-60 70-65 5 23 54 0.426 September 6 75-61 71-65 4 23 52 0.442 September 7 76-61 71-66 5 21 50 0.420 September 8 77-61 71-67 6 19 48 0.396 September 9 78-61 71-68 7 17 46 0.370 September 10 79-61 71-68 7.5 16 45 0.356 September 11 80-61 71-69 8.5 14 43 0.326 September 12 81-61 71-70 9.5 12 41 0.293

Centerfield Sep 12 2015 09:19 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

It's fun to monitor anyway. The only drama left for me is hoping that the lead will stretch enough that the Mets clinch at home before leaving on the last road trip of the season.

Frayed Knot Sep 12 2015 09:22 PM Re: Return of the NHOP

It's never pointless until it's pointless. Follow it through. The difference between this year and 2007 (well, one of several actually) is that the infamous 7 game lead was followed by an off-day (in which the Phils won) and then a three-game series with the Phils where we got swept, so the 7 game lead was cut in half in less than 4 days (and was dropped to 1.5 two days later). This year is not only already bigger but it grows by the day and with no head to head until the final series it has so much less of a chance to follow the same pattern. 9.5 w/20 to go. And, btw, happy non-losing season for the first time in seven years as tonight was our 81st win.