Master Index of Archived Threads


Democratic Nomination Poll

>95%

6 votes

85% - 94%

6 votes

70% - 84%

2 votes

50% - 69%

3 votes

<50%

3 votes

Frayed Knot Aug 16 2015 07:06 PM

What are the odds that Hillary Clinton will be the eventual nominee of the Democratic Party for 2016? I've been thinking about putting up this poll for at least a month, back when the first cracks started to appear in a nomination that once looked more like a mere formality. But now there's scandal dogging her, there are contenders drawing away some of the attention (mostly Sanders), calls for others (Biden?, Gore?, Warren?) to join the race, and there are similar looking stumbles in the campaign that cost her the last time she was the presumptive winner. IOW, suddenly the inevitable doesn't seem as inevitable as it used to. So what are your odds -- and, again, what you THINK will happen not what you're rooting for -- that Hillary is the eventual Democratic choice for the 2016 general election?

d'Kong76 Aug 17 2015 10:26 AM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

>95%... you GO girl!

Ceetar Aug 17 2015 10:28 AM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

rooting for Bernie Sanders I guess, but it doesn't seem like he's getting the traction with the guys that decide these things.

dgwphotography Aug 17 2015 11:11 AM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

It all depends on the DNC. If the y feel she's still viable, this will go away quietly like every other scandal that involves a politician with a D next to their name. If the DNC feels she isn't viable, look for Biden to throw his hat in, and for the heat to be turned up on her.

Mets – Willets Point Aug 17 2015 12:55 PM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

http://www.theonion.com/article/hillary ... tion-51111

Lefty Specialist Aug 17 2015 06:14 PM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

85-94%. Sanders is performing a useful function by holding her feet to the fire on traditional Democratic principles. Otherwise she would already have moved to the right and basically dared liberals not to vote for her (the Onion piece, as usual, is spot-on). But Sanders isn't equipped to win any more than Howard Dean was at this point in 2003. Lotsa enthusiasm, but Hillary won't let the primary math get away from her this time. If she shows weakness, though, that's where Biden comes in. He's the 5-15% chance, not Sanders. In the end, though, I think Hillary wins out. They've been investigating her 'scandals' for nearly 25 years now. She is quite possibly the most intensely investigated person in this country ever, and by golly, if they can't find anything major by now, they never will. Not that I'm particularly excited by her, but the alternatives on the other side range from scary to comical to wholly-owned subsidiaries of major corporations.

Edgy MD Aug 17 2015 07:23 PM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

They've (we've) got plenty major. The country just hasn't got a big enough sheriff. Every partisan investigation of officials pretends to be credible. Every credible one gets derided as partisan. But there's still a difference. It's easy to assume it's all garbage. But they sure as hell take advantage of these assumptions. And get away with awful stuff because of it.

Mets Guy in Michigan Aug 17 2015 09:06 PM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

I disagree with the comments about the other side. The Republicans have a deep bench, especially among the governors and former governors. I don't think of any of them are comical, much less scary. I think Sec. Clinton has significant -- and growing -- challenges and I would not be surprised to see some additional candidates enter the race, even at this late date. I think her challenges add to the struggles the Democrats will face, including that it would not be surprising for people, after eight disappointing years, to look in another direction.

Frayed Knot Aug 17 2015 09:08 PM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

That the Dems got their collective ass kicked in the two recent mid-term elections is probably the best thing that could have happen for her as there's now a limited "farm system" to provide under 60 talent to the party (far fewer sens, reps, and guvs to mount a challenge). So while the complaints about her range from she's too old, and too insider, and too mainstream, it's not like the alternatives provide much of a contrast; Biden, Gore, McNally, Chaffee, etc. pretty much fall into the same category. And while Sanders is enjoying his moment in the sun, it's questionable how far a 70+ self-proclaimed socialist from a small state can take things. But 3 of 16 votes so far put the odds at under 50% and 5 of the 16 say the odds are under 69% That would have seemed absurd just a few months ago.

Edgy MD Aug 18 2015 06:14 AM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

Mets Guy in Michigan wrote: I disagree with the comments about the other side. The Republicans have a deep bench, especially among the governors and former governors. I don't think of any of them are comical, much less scary. I concur here. Mostly, anyhow. Mets Guy in Michigan wrote: I think Sec. Clinton has significant -- and growing -- challenges and I would not be surprised to see some additional candidates enter the race, even at this late date. Folks may enter late, but history suggests white horse candidates — high profile draftees brought in when front-runners have given a big sector of the power donors heebie-jeebies — have had a lot of trouble gaining traction. Fred Thompson, Wesley Clark, and, well, Rick Perry come to mind. The closest thing to a successful white horse candidate was Bobby Kennedy.

Ceetar Aug 18 2015 07:26 AM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

I've voting for Zoltan Istvan anyway.

Mets – Willets Point Aug 18 2015 09:55 AM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

Mets Guy in Michigan wrote: even at this late date. It seems only in this century maybe that 15 months before the election would reasonably considered a "late date." I miss the old days.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Aug 18 2015 10:16 AM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

I don't have a sense for who gets in or who stays or what, but it seems to me that Hilary's not going to be elected. Too many people will never change their minds on her, and she seems especially vulnerable to drawing a strong hate-vote.

TransMonk Aug 18 2015 10:31 AM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I don't have a sense for who gets in or who stays or what, but it seems to me that Hilary's not going to be elected. Too many people will never change their minds on her, and she seems especially vulnerable to drawing a strong hate-vote. I thought similar things on Obama 8 years ago (though, for slightly different reasons). It's WAY to early to pick one, even in this two-ish horse race. But at the end of the day, I would follow the money, which will most likely lead to Hilary.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 18 2015 10:46 AM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

I wouldn't count out Hillary yet. Presidential election years get a lot of younger voters, including females and Hispanics, who heavily tend to vote for Democrats. Things will be much clearer twelve months from now, and although Hillary is far from the sure thing that some thought she'd be, she's also not close to being down for the count.

Edgy MD Aug 18 2015 10:50 AM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

Eight years ago, President Obama had an a coalition of liberals, wealthy, and academics combined with just about 100% (and swelling) of the party's African American population. Sanders can grab the first half of that group but not the second so easily. Secretary Clinton has an easier fight, in many ways, even if she has more baggage. In the general election? I'm very hesitant to make a prediction when the race for the other party's nominee is so wide open.

Ashie62 Aug 23 2015 05:55 PM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

I'm going Biden/Warren. Hillary's emails,wealth and Libya will likely do her in.

Lefty Specialist Aug 24 2015 05:56 AM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

Mets Guy in Michigan wrote: I disagree with the comments about the other side. The Republicans have a deep bench, especially among the governors and former governors. I don't think of any of them are comical, much less scary. Well, I'll agree the bench is deep, but there are a lot of Danny Munos in there. Donald Trump- Comical. Full. Stop. Even more comical that he's leading the polls. Chris Christie- Once scary, now comical. Missed his chance. You got your stomach stapled for nothing, big guy. Rick Santorum- Scary. Real wrath of God stuff. Only candidate to voluntarily bring up masturbation on the campaign trail. Also a noun. Mike Huckabee- Scary in that he tries to look folksy and harmless while believing all the same stuff Santorum does. (Not sure about the masturbation part) Ted Cruz- Scary. Believes 'religious freedom' trumps the Constitution. Not the first smug asshole to run for president, but has raised it to an art form. Republicans actually hate him more than Democrats do. [crossout]George W.[/crossout] Jeb! Bush- Scary in that he gets his foreign policy advice from Dick Cheney. Loooooves Common Core which naturally endears him to the Republican base. Jim Gilmour. Who? Comical. Rick Perry- Comical. Oops. Scott Walker- Wholly-owned subsidiary of Koch Industries. Check him for trademark tattoos. No, seriously. Check him. Marco Rubio- Wholly owned and comical. What do you do with someone who plays up their immigrant heritage to bash immigrants? Why, you give him a bottle of water and watch what he does with it. Carly Fiorina- Comical for men, scary for women. When Mitt Romney ran as a businessman, at least he was successful at it. Lindsay Graham- not scary or comical, just boring. Would be scary if he got close to the Oval office because there isn't a war he wouldn't start. But he barely has a pulse in the polls, so we're safe. Bobby Jindal- Comical. Because running the US like he runs Louisiana would be so appealing. Doomed to guest appearances on the Muppet Show. George Pataki- Comical. Who talked him into this anyway? Rand Paul- Scary, kinda. The stopped clock that's right twice a day. You wouldn't want to live in a country he was running, since, well, things wouldn't work. All his scary stuff has been expropriated by The Donald, and the air seems to have gone out of his balloon. John Kasich- I put him in a different category than the others. Probably the best Republican candidate out there. Tried to bash unions but stopped when the people told him no. Conservative but not trying to out-Donald Donald. Took Obamacare money. Probably too rational to get through the primary season. Now, that's not to say that a 73-year-old socialist isn't kind of a comic concept on the Democratic side, but Republicans are a target-rich environment, simply because there are so many of them trying to out-do the others in competing for essentially the same sub-set of Republican primary voters.

MFS62 Aug 24 2015 07:02 AM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

I thought Bobby Jindal's other job was beat reporter covering the MFYs for WFAN. Oh, wait. You might say that's Sweeny Murti. But have you ever seen them together in the same room? Later

Edgy MD Aug 24 2015 07:22 AM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

I'm sure Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee don't believe the same things.

seawolf17 Aug 24 2015 07:31 AM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

Edgy MD wrote: I'm sure Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee don't believe the same things. I haven't done the research, but Santorum strikes me as similar to Huckabee, yet somehow dumber.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 24 2015 07:32 AM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

Edgy MD wrote: I'm sure Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee don't believe the same things. There's probably a significant overlap. Santorum's fear of gay people seems to come from a different place, though, from an inner truth he dare not acknowledge.

Mets – Willets Point Aug 24 2015 11:12 AM Re: Democratic Nomination Poll

Rick Santorum - scary and frothy.