Master Index of Archived Threads
Enjoying Beast Mode
Lefty Specialist Sep 08 2015 06:59 AM |
Cespedes.
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Edgy MD Sep 08 2015 07:11 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
As Gary put it though, what team adds six good or better big league hitters at once: three by trade, two by DL activation, and one by promotion? That's lengthening the lineup.
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 08 2015 07:22 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
He's been such a presence in the lineup. Even when he's three or four batters away, he's probably on the pitcher's mind.
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Edgy MD Sep 08 2015 07:33 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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I dunno. Sometimes the realization that a guy won't be affordable long-term is what turns him into a hot potato, even a few years out from his free agency. Lookie Mike Piazza. But beyond that, there are always teams looking to muscle up, and when that doesn't work, deal those same folks off just as quickly. Marlins. Red Sox. Tigers.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 08 2015 07:34 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
Have we even experienced what the addition of healthy Doodoo could mean? Yikes. I was gonna remark separately on d'Arnaud but this friggin guy has now amassed nearly 200 plate appearances now -- most since the August return from the DL and OPS+ing at 150. He's a star himself.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 08 2015 07:35 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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PWGTTTGT (players who get traded tend to get traded). I can't prove it but I know it.
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Farmer Ted Sep 08 2015 07:36 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
Sign them all to long term contracts Wilpon you cheap sombabitch!
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soupcan Sep 08 2015 07:59 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
I've been thinking about Yoenis and marveling about what he's done as well.
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Ceetar Sep 08 2015 08:04 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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I think that's just it. Price is going up and he's not young and he's not this good. It's a shame they can't reap any of the benefits* from this when he signs elsewhere for way too much money and years for an older guy that doesn't walk, but I'd probably bank on a .270/.320/.500 line from him next year as his high point and while that's good, it's not really break the bank numbers. *Obviously they'll reap the benefits of a long run this season.
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soupcan Sep 08 2015 08:07 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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That may be, but if true he's a master illusionist.
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Edgy MD Sep 08 2015 08:09 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
If he stays this good through the post-season, then few of use will have reason to quibble over whether he's really this good.
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MFS62 Sep 08 2015 08:20 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
It will be interesting to see the incremental attendance per game since he arrived. I'm guessing it was in the high 20's to low 30's before he arrived.
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Ceetar Sep 08 2015 08:21 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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Well, the last person to slug what he's slugging in a full season was Pujols in 2006, and just barely. Then a few guys in the early 2000s, a different offensive era. Only McGwire did in '98. From an objective and statistical standpoint, it seems pretty unwise to me to pay him for something you can't really expect him to do again, particularly over a long haul, particularly when you have to pay him based on what he _thinks_ he'll get in free agency. But he hits the ball freaking hard and is suddenly in a deep lineup and is in a pennant race and certainly is a hell of a lot of fun to watch.
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Edgy MD Sep 08 2015 08:23 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
I'm sure management will be better able than us to calculate what the most likely outcomes will look like. He certainly won't be the only free agent on the market.
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 08 2015 08:27 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
The fact that the Mets would have to make a preemptive offer is the main thing that makes resigning him more difficult.
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TransMonk Sep 08 2015 08:32 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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This is the reason I can't see the Mets pulling it off even if they want to make a legitimate offer. The Mets don't have the luxury of bidding with other teams and having a sense of what his real market value is to those teams. They essentially have to blow Cespedes away and make him think that no other team is going to offer as much as the Mets are wanting to give him. It's going to be hard (and expensive) to make Cespedes bite. Too expensive for my liking.
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d'Kong76 Sep 08 2015 10:14 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
Renting this shiny new toy with no expectation of keeping it is
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 08 2015 10:17 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
I don't care if they keep him or not. I say that primarily because he's going to go FA whether we like him or not. We have outfielders already under contract for next season and trust the braintrust will attempt to replicate his contribution in the aggregate if not with one superexpensive guy.
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Ceetar Sep 08 2015 10:18 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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Think of it like renting a Ferrari on vacation.
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 08 2015 10:32 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
In the abstract, I'd love to see him stay but I realize that practical considerations make that impractical.
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TransMonk Sep 08 2015 11:19 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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While I agree with that scenario, a Laggy/Cuddyer reserve would be $15M sitting on the bench most games...so it seem unlikely to me that they will move forward with that strategy. I suppose a lot depends on if/when Laggy gets surgery to help his elbow.
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LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Sep 08 2015 11:27 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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Good player, but not super with off-field marketingstuff? Oh, yeah. Hell, for some, it becomes a selling point. "Hey, he's the kind of guy who you can plug into any situation and he's god to go."
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Lefty Specialist Sep 08 2015 11:46 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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I think this is the way to go, even if you're parking $15 mil on the bench. Dangling Harvey, you should be able to reel in a pretty good young outfielder.
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Edgy MD Sep 08 2015 11:49 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
(fman)Funny. I call mine Dangling Harvey also. What a coincidence.(/fman)
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dgwphotography Sep 08 2015 02:25 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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Um - this is good news:
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d'Kong76 Sep 08 2015 02:28 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
Cool, never occurred to me that the contract could be modified.
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Edgy MD Sep 08 2015 02:29 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
Wow.
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d'Kong76 Sep 08 2015 02:31 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
Billable hours make the world go round and round.
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Ceetar Sep 08 2015 02:32 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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Pretty much makes sense. All Sandy has to do is say 'Well, you know, we'd like you but we're not going to make you an over the top offer in the first few days just to keep you'. And if they believe that, there's really no downside to agreeing to continue to talk to the Mets after 5 days are up. I wonder if numbers were floated. "We believe you're worth this, and small sample size being what it is, nothing that happens here on out will alter it much" Perhaps the 'hand shake' agreement is that Cespedes gets to talk to the other clubs and the Mets won't then pull that initial offer away if no one beats it?
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TransMonk Sep 08 2015 02:34 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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Holy shit. Yeah, that seems hugely good.
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batmagadanleadoff Sep 08 2015 02:36 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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I dunno but if the Mets had to pay to amend Cespedes's contract (and my guess is that they did have to) that they did is probably a good sign.
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batmagadanleadoff Sep 08 2015 02:38 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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FAFIF's post is phrased to suggest that Cespedes voluntarily waived the clause for nothing in return.
Doesn't the press know to ask the right questions?
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G-Fafif Sep 08 2015 02:41 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
I have no idea how it went down, mind you. I'm just happy it went down.
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batmagadanleadoff Sep 08 2015 02:43 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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I'm kinda hoping that the Mets had to pay to waive the clause. Because if so, it's a good sign of the state of the Mets.
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G-Fafif Sep 08 2015 02:46 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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Good point.
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 08 2015 03:02 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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But if they're really like all of the other 29 clubs, doesn't that mean that the Mets have to make a Qualifying Offer in order to continue to negotiate after a certain date? And since Yoenis is a player that was acquired mid-season, even with a QO there's no draft pick compensation for the Mets, correct?
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Frayed Knot Sep 08 2015 03:08 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
IIRC the new rules dictate that you can't make a QO and receive future draft picks for players picked up in mid-season - so this was never a case with Cespedes with or without his now defunct 5-day clause.
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 08 2015 03:16 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
But they do have to make a QO to continue negotiating past a certain point, don't they?
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Frayed Knot Sep 08 2015 03:21 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
I think so, yes.
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Ceetar Sep 08 2015 03:35 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
no, the 'qualifying offer' is just a stand-in for 'good faith offer to keep player' It's the same mechanism as offering him 7 years, 150 million, which would also be a qualifying offer if it came within those first five days. You have to do that in the first 5 days of free agency (the team's exclusive negotiating window) in order to be eligible for compensation should that player sign elsewhere, but because there will never be compensation for Cespedes, there's no reason for them to offer the token ~15ish/1year deal.
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Ashie62 Sep 08 2015 04:02 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
Can the Mets just trade Harvey for Cespedes?
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RealityChuck Sep 08 2015 04:25 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
I figured this would happen. Cespedis loses nothing by waiving the clause.
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Edgy MD Sep 08 2015 04:43 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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I'm sure the Tigers would like that just fine.
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Lefty Specialist Sep 08 2015 05:19 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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And gains another potential suitor for a bidding war. No down side for Cespedes.
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Edgy MD Sep 08 2015 05:25 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
Well, it takes away the motivation for the team to make an aggressive pre-emptive offer.
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Lefty Specialist Sep 08 2015 06:13 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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Cespedes' new manservant- Danny Muno.
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Frayed Knot Sep 08 2015 07:05 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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That's what I'm thinking too as I doubt the Mets had to 'pay' much if anything at all to get him to give it up. And remember that the original purpose to this is the thing that several of the older Asian & Cuban pros have had inserted into their first ML deals, the ability to declare themselves as FAs prior to the six year wait that younger players have to go through. This clause was just a sort of round-about way of getting there, it forces his original team (not knowing he'd be on his fourth club before ever reaching that point) to either cough up a huge deal or essentially cede the right to sign him at all.
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LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Sep 08 2015 11:28 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
He's awesome and wonderful and I hope to think fondly on him forever and I worry very much about signing any guy after a huge-outlier career year who's on the wrong side of 30.
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seawolf17 Sep 09 2015 04:27 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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I totally agree. This has been a fantastic ride, but I'm not willing to give him a huge deal.
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 09 2015 04:40 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
If he could be signed for three or four years I'd say go for it. But he's probably going to get six, seven, or even eight and that's an entirely different story. If someone is going to be willing to pay him $30 million at the age of 37, it shouldn't be the Mets.
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Zvon Sep 09 2015 05:17 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
Whomever first called him a monster, I thank you. Come ONNNN! You know who you are.
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Frayed Knot Sep 09 2015 10:45 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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And to add to that caution, whatever Cespedes will be in the future it will most likely not be what we've seen over the last six weeks. His 'slash' stat NYM numbers currently sit at 38, 37, and 187 points above his pre-NYM career norms as his .269/.317/.473 over 2,019 ABs have morphed into .307/.354/.660 over the most recent 153 Another way to look at that: his 1014 OPS would be (slightly) behind only Bryce Harper, Joey Votto, and Miggy Cabrera if projected out for all of 2015. His 790 pre-Mets career would put him in about 57th place with the likes of DJ LeMahieu and Shin-Soo-Choo. Nice players but not worth selling the farm for.
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Edgy MD Sep 09 2015 11:25 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
An article in The Times has a story about the mustard in Cespedes' game, highlighting his uncanny ability to throw the ball underhanded with strength and accuracy. Some believe he started doing it as a tribute to his mother, who was a star pitcher for the Cuban softball team.
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 11 2015 02:06 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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For whatever it may be worth:
Just for the heck of it, what kind of contract might Cespedes get? I've been reading that he's looking to get between $120 and $150 million, but of course that's speculation. But over how many years? $150 million over six years? Five? I don't know if they'd be able to pull it off, but maybe they can do with him what the Marlins and the Blue Jays did with Reyes: sign him to a backloaded contract and trade him away before the later expensive years kick in. The problem is, you can't count on being able to deal a 34-year old player with a big contract.
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d'Kong76 Sep 11 2015 02:08 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
The years the years the years... and it wouldn't surprise me (when
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Edgy MD Sep 11 2015 02:36 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
It wouldn't surprise me — and I say this with love — that he's taken wheelbarrows full of nutritional supplements of dubious provenance, and this may be a greater concern over the long haul than it is over short.
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themetfairy Sep 11 2015 03:13 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
I'm loving the contract drive; I'm not committed to the big payout.
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TransMonk Sep 11 2015 04:03 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
Exactly, I'm just happy the Mets are at least indicating that there is interest (meaning the era of looking to acquire only cheap FAs may be ending).
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G-Fafif Sep 12 2015 06:41 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
I like how Cespedes offers protection to the rest of the lineup.
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Frayed Knot Sep 12 2015 07:01 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
Cespedes per 600 PAs as a NYM: .313/.360/.681 // 1041 OPS; 34 2Bs, 10 3Bs, 51 HRs. Or, if you want to get real geeky about it, 8.48 RC/27 (a projected all-Cespedes lineup would average about 8.5 runs per game)
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Ashie62 Sep 12 2015 09:19 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
I hope he is not a guy who gets the big contract and then kinda shuts it down.
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Edgy MD Sep 12 2015 10:11 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
The truth is virtually everybody is that kind of guy.
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Ashie62 Sep 12 2015 12:46 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
That's pretty much what I meant.
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d'Kong76 Sep 12 2015 01:16 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
Lol, didn't you just say yesterday you weren't interested
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themetfairy Sep 12 2015 01:31 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
On Jason Fry and Shannon Shark's podcast, Paul Lukas discusses David Wright's orange undershirt and Cespedes' sleeve
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d'Kong76 Sep 12 2015 01:44 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
And there ya go!!
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Edgy MD Sep 12 2015 01:49 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 12 2015 01:50 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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I think the rules have changed, though. I remember Tsuyoshi Shinjo wanted to wear a bright red armband (which was his trademark in Japan) but had to go with orange instead.
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themetfairy Sep 12 2015 01:57 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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That was also discussed in the podcast.
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G-Fafif Sep 12 2015 04:53 PM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
Gary Cohen has compared Cespedes's hitting style to that of Mays. I can see it.
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G-Fafif Sep 15 2015 06:53 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
Tim Rohan on how the beast became a Met. My only objection is the inclusion of the COO as the tough-talking, signer-offer on the big deal. Would love to pretend a giddy dowager still owns the team.
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Frayed Knot Sep 15 2015 07:14 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
Somehow I get the feeling that Jeff's "Go for it" in this case won't become the stuff of legend in the same way that Doubleday's supposed pep talk (do we actually know what was said and to whom?) to go out and get Piazza has to some fans.
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Edgy MD Sep 15 2015 07:24 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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Just for the sake of discussion, is it really true that this has no parallel? Is it really true that his quarter-season of .309 / .356 / .691 // 1.048 is unprecedented? I mean, it's probably unprecedented as far as dovetailing perfectly and magically and out-of-the-blue with a Mets stretch run, but surely Piazza or Beltran or Duda or Strawberry or McReynolds or Segui or somebody has had a similar month and a half somewhere, right?
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Lefty Specialist Sep 15 2015 07:50 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
You know, the fact that he doesn't walk much is killing his OPS.
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MFS62 Sep 15 2015 07:53 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
When they hired him, I knew Sandy could do it.
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Frayed Knot Sep 15 2015 08:09 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
This just in: Cespedes has been named NL Player of the Week for next week.
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Ceetar Sep 15 2015 08:11 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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I can't find a play-index to answer that question. bah! Another time I wish I had my own DB.
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dgwphotography Sep 15 2015 08:12 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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I'm thinking, at least power-wise, of Kingman in 1976 before he tore up his thumb. didn't he have 30 homers at the all-star break?
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Edgy MD Sep 15 2015 08:15 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
Kingman 76 was certainly one I was thinking of.
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Centerfield Sep 15 2015 08:25 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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This is a fascinating article. We talk about having a plan and setting up your pieces etc., but it's amazing how arbitrary these things are. A few things of note: 1. If the Gomez deal happens, no way we get Cespedes. Gomez has an OPS around .660 for Houston. We likely do not make the playoffs. 2. Thank god the Padres were stubborn about Justin Upton. 3. Holy crap we could have ended up with Jay Fucking Bruce. We were that close to disaster. 4. I have to give credit to Jeff Wilpon if that is true. That brings the list of "Things I like about Jeff Wilpon" to 1. 5. It sounds like Sandy was determined to make a move all along. That is encouraging. 6. I didn't know Fulmer was that good of a prospect. I guess we may have some regrets coming to us later. I still say we make the move.
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themetfairy Sep 15 2015 08:49 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
Yes, Fulmer is a stud. But this was nonetheless a deal worth making.
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dinosaur jesus Sep 15 2015 08:56 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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Not so much. He did have a 41-game stretch in 1976 (April 27-June 10) where he hit 15 home runs. His line was .244 / .275 / .549, with 25 runs scored and 33 rbi. But Strawberry had a stretch in 1990 that beats Cespedes. From June 8 to July 25 (41 games), his line was .336 / .421 / .718 // 1.139, with 17 home runs, 34 runs scored, and 42 rbi. The Mets went 30-11, and went from 9 1/2 games behind the Pirates to 1/2 game back. That doesn't have the neat storyline of what Cespedes has done, but it's pretty stunning.
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G-Fafif Sep 15 2015 09:02 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
It's as much a reflection the lineups of their day as it is to what Peerless Yo From (south of) Manzanillo is doing, but Cespedes's 17 HRs to date, all accumulated since early August, would have led a dozen different Met clubs in that category over a full season. A few more are within (for him) easy reach as well.
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TransMonk Sep 15 2015 09:04 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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Agreed. Also, I preferred giving up Fulmer to Wheeler. Fulmer may have a high ceiling, but Wheeler is a known quantity at the major league level (if he can fully recover from TJ, obviously).
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 15 2015 09:05 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
He may end up leading the 2015 club in homers.
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Ashie62 Sep 15 2015 09:06 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
I saw a comment by Rubin that Yo Yo will be looking at about 175 million in the off season.
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Edgy MD Sep 15 2015 09:08 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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This is excellent work by Dino J. Outstanding.
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 15 2015 09:09 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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Over how many years?
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Ashie62 Sep 15 2015 09:12 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
Rubin was replying in comments and did not say. I will look for the link todayum.
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Ceetar Sep 15 2015 09:14 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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Where'd you pull that from?
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dinosaur jesus Sep 15 2015 09:23 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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I looked at player game logs on Baseball Reference, and selected stretches of games where there seemed to be a lot of home runs. For Strawberry, I looked at his big years of 1987, 1988, and 1990, and 1984, since I know he got really hot after a slow start.
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 15 2015 09:39 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
If he's asking for that $175 million over six years, that's not unreasonable. I mean, it's not unreasonable for him to ask for that. Whether it's reasonable for him to get that is another story.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 15 2015 09:40 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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lololollol
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batmagadanleadoff Sep 15 2015 09:47 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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Straw's 1990 stretch landed him on the cover of SI.
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Centerfield Sep 15 2015 10:00 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
You know what's cool? If the Mets lose in the first round, Cespedes signs somewhere else, and then Fulmer ends up being a perennial ace, we can then blame Jeff Wilpon!
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 15 2015 10:05 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
If that happens, it's still a good trade.
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Centerfield Sep 15 2015 10:08 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
All kidding aside, yes. Agreed. A trade that had to be made.
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Frayed Knot Sep 15 2015 10:19 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
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Stole that one from old Ch 11 sportscaster Jerry Girard who used the line with Wayne Gretzsky a whole buncha years ago. Michael Fulmer is a promising pitcher -- as any 1S round pick should be (44th overall in 2011 out of HS in Oklahoma) who got off to good enough years in '11-'13 to land him on the back of BA's top-100 by 2013 (98th to be precise). But then he stumbled badly in 2014 and injuries limited to 20 starts and also a 5.31 ERA mostly at high-A PSL. 2015 was a significant bounce-back year for him as he went 10-3, 2.24 over 22 starts in AA with all his numbers going in the right direction. I expect he'll be on the prospect lists next year, probably even top-50, which is a nice place to be for a guy who won't turn 23 until next spring, but of course it's also that bounce-back which made him good enough bait to land Cespedes without touching anyone from the big club. But he's still just a prospect and hardly a guaranteed stud (and remember the saying about pitching prospects - TINSTAAPP) at a position where we're strongest - so I make this move ten times out of ten even without the guarantee of Cespedes beyond the rest-e-dis year. And if Fulmer beats the odds and becomes an ace in the next couple of years, well then we're just going to have to live with it.
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Lefty Specialist Sep 15 2015 10:47 AM Re: Enjoying Beast Mode |
Even if Fulmer becomes an ace, I still do the deal. Cespedes electrified this offense. Yes, he had help, but it all fell into place with his acquisition. And yes, even if he walks. They grabbed for the brass ring, and they didn't give up someone who figured into their short-range plans.
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