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Mets will QO Murphy.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 21 2015 11:29 PM

Didn't see this posted here. Didn't notice this news at all till just now even though the article's dated 2:45PM yesterday (almost 12 hours ago). Didn't hear it discussed on the TV either. Murphy to get qualifying offer, but Mets future murky as ever By Joel Sherman CHICAGO — The Mets intend to make the qualifying offer of $15.8 million to Daniel Murphy. But that is mostly about guaranteeing a draft pick next June and remaining in play to sign the second baseman, even if the odds to keep him long-term remain — at best — iffy. What the Mets — and the industry — will have to decide is whether to believe in the track records not just of Murphy, but Yoenis Cespedes, or be swayed by the Cespedes hot streak that carried the Mets into the playoffs and the Murphy hot streak that has lifted the Mets in the postseason. Mets general manager Sandy Alderson and his front office pride themselves on trying to remove emotion from the decision-making process. They want to look at the full picture, not just moments when players are at their extremes (worst or best). Thus, the Mets are going to judge Cespedes and Murphy over a long haul when both have established an expected range of performance. For example, Cespedes hit between 22 and 26 homers in his first three seasons. Do you believe that or the 35 in Year 4, when he hit 18 homers as a Tiger in four months and then 17 in two months with the Mets? Does an organization that values the ability to get on base, perhaps, above all else ignore that among the 119 players who amassed at least 1,000 plate appearances between 2013 and 2014, Cespedes’ .298 on-base percentage was 10th-worst (it was .328 this year)? Murphy’s power surge deviates from his norm. But I have seen Murphy dismissed as just another Gene Tenace, Adam Kennedy, Cody Ross or David Freese — guys who had out-of-nowhere brilliance in the postseason. But Murphy has had an above-average offensive consistency those players didn’t leading into their October star turn. In the five seasons in which he qualified for the batting title, Murphy hit between 37 and 40 doubles in each of those years. He has had an OPS-plus between 103 and 113 in each of the past four seasons (100 is league average). That Murphy will be considerably less expensive than Cespedes in free agency makes him more likely to be retained by a Mets organization that — until proven otherwise — is still operating frugally for a big-market team. But there is another element at play here: I sense Mets officials believe Murphy has added power as part of his portfolio. While not as good a hitter as Wade Boggs, Murphy has similarities with Boggs — namely that both have thoughts on every element of hitting, are headstrong about approach and that approach has generally been to hit the ball the other way. Mets hitting coach Kevin Long went on a season-long quest to convince Murphy his exceptional hand-eye coordination combined with yet-untapped power could produce more. Modal Trigger Daniel Murphy talks to Kevin Long during spring training.Photo: Charles Wenzelberg Eventually, Long has gotten Murphy to buy into shortening his stride and becoming more pull-centric. Through Aug. 1, Murphy had six homers, one every 55 at-bats. From then to the end of the regular season, he had eight homers, one every 24.4 at-bats. Obviously, no one can keep up Murphy’s postseason power production, but there is a stronger belief he can now be a 20-plus-homer performer. Murphy’s offensive consistency up until now gets paid nicely, but if teams think the power is real, that opens larger financial possibilities. The expectation is Mets ownership will authorize an annual gradual rise in payroll, keeping in mind to budget for significant raises on the horizon for the elite starting pitching, Lucas Duda, Travis d’Arnaud and Jeurys Familia, as they become or continue on as arbitration-eligible players. If Murphy accepts the qualifying offer and the Mets, say, grow to a $115 million payroll, then $15. 8 million is 13.7 percent of the whole — perhaps too significant a chunk for the Mets to tolerate. But because there is less risk with a one-year deal — even at a high price — and because they think Murphy would reject the qualifying offer, the Mets have become more comfortable giving him one and assuring a pick between the first and second rounds next June if Murphy signs elsewhere. Agents and executives with whom I have spoken expect Murphy to fall into a range similar to what the Yankees gave Chase Headley — four years at $52 million. The predictions on Cespedes swung in a wider arc, with a few saying, despite the Met surge, they still expect him to fall closer to $100 million in a package and a larger group anticipating a deal in the six-year, $150 million area. The Mets could replace Murphy inexpensively at second with Wilmer Flores or Dilson Herrera. But if they really believe in this newfound power, Murphy’s chances of staying could increase. http://nypost.com/2015/10/21/murphy-to- ... ill-murky/

Zvon Oct 21 2015 11:37 PM Re: Mets will QO Murphy.

They will give him an offer? That's good enough for me :) I hope you remain a Met Murph but I also hope you clean up in the payoff dept. 2 yrs, 25mill. I don't see the Mets going beyond this. And many will say that amount for 2 is crazy. I say if someone wants to pay him more, good for Murph.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 21 2015 11:42 PM Re: Mets will QO Murphy.

I'm almost certain that no free agent has ever accepted a QO. So are the Mets playing "chicken" here, believing -- or even hoping -- that Murph rejects the QO? OTOH, having Murph on a one year deal as opposed to the multiyear deal (at least four, I presume) that Murph wants, isn't such a bad thing. He's closer to 31 than to 30.

cooby Oct 22 2015 03:33 AM Re: Mets will QO Murphy.

Still they'd better do something just to thank him for what he's done the past week or so

Centerfield Oct 22 2015 07:51 AM Re: Mets will QO Murphy.

Mike Hampton was the NLCS MVP in 2000. He left via free agency after that year, and the Mets were awarded a draft pick. They selected David Wright. I'm just saying.

Ceetar Oct 22 2015 08:06 AM Re: Mets will QO Murphy.

Centerfield wrote: Mike Hampton was the NLCS MVP in 2000. He left via free agency after that year, and the Mets were awarded a draft pick. They selected David Wright. I'm just saying. Thanks Bing Devine!

cooby Oct 22 2015 03:56 PM Re: Mets will QO Murphy.

Centerfield wrote: Mike Hampton was the NLCS MVP in 2000. He left via free agency after that year, and the Mets were awarded a draft pick. They selected David Wright. I'm just saying. Yeah, but we didn't like him.

cooby Oct 22 2015 03:56 PM Re: Mets will QO Murphy.

Mike Hampton, I mean, obviously

dinosaur jesus Oct 22 2015 04:06 PM Re: Mets will QO Murphy.

It's not Hampton's fault the schools are better in Denver. A man has to look out for his family.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 22 2015 04:12 PM Re: Mets will QO Murphy.

Did we dislike Hampton when he was still a Met? It's possible, but I don't recall that. I seem to think we wanted him back, but were miffed at the way he left.

cooby Oct 22 2015 04:18 PM Re: Mets will QO Murphy.

I didn't like him...he looked creepy

Centerfield Oct 22 2015 04:39 PM Re: Mets will QO Murphy.

I think his nickname here was Dolphin Face.

themetfairy Oct 22 2015 05:06 PM Re: Mets will QO Murphy.

Centerfield wrote: I think his nickname here was Dolphin Face. You are correct.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 22 2015 05:09 PM Re: Mets will QO Murphy.

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Did we dislike Hampton when he was still a Met? It's possible, but I don't recall that. I seem to think we wanted him back, but were miffed at the way he left. Jeez. How far back does this forum go?

Benjamin Grimm Oct 22 2015 06:39 PM Re: Mets will QO Murphy.

By "we" I mean Mets fans. I wasn't part of any forum in 2000, but I think a lot of the posters here were. I found this group in 2002.

soupcan Oct 22 2015 07:01 PM Re: Mets will QO Murphy.

There was a forum that pre-dated this one that many of us posted on. I forget the name of it though.

Frayed Knot Oct 23 2015 06:02 AM Re: Mets will QO Murphy.

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Jeez. How far back does this forum go? Coming up on it's 14th birthday now that you mention it. While there's no official beginning to CPF (it existed as a kind of refuge forum for a time prior to it being a full-time one) it started kicking into gear during 2001's 9/11-delayed World Series so, for convenience sake, November 1st was retroactively assigned to be it's unofficially official launch date. Stuff like the Hampton nickname and similar pre-2001 stuff date back to a previous site the origin of which goes back to maybe '97-'98?

d'Kong76 Oct 23 2015 06:31 AM Re: Mets will QO Murphy.

I think I started posting at Mets Online (now universally referred to as mofo) in 1997 some time. Hard to believe it's been that long and how much the internet and how we get on it and use it has changed. That 9,600 baud modem used to fly!!