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2015-16 Prospect Season

Frayed Knot Nov 02 2015 08:14 PM

BA chimes in with their list: 1. Steven Matz, lhp 2. Amed Rosario, ss 3. Dominic Smith, 1b 4. Gavin Cecchini, ss 5. Brandon Nimmo, of 6. Marcos Molina, rhp 7. Luis Carpio, ss/2b 8. Desmond Lindsay, of 9. Matt Reynolds, ss/2b 10. Wuilmer Becerra, of and a Q & A session to go along with it. http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/n ... ects-chat/

Benjamin Grimm Nov 02 2015 08:46 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Does Matz retain his rookie status? I know he's under the innings limit, but I don't know if his DL time counts as days of service.

Frayed Knot Nov 02 2015 08:51 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

DL time counts as service time as far as contract status and all of that. But I believe rookie status is determined by active roster time and the prospect ratings orgs usually follow that.

Centerfield Nov 02 2015 09:00 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

I guess it was inevitable considering the success we have enjoyed recently, but my takeaway from that list is that, other than Matz, no one else will be helping the big club in 2016.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 02 2015 09:02 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Reynolds maybe? Nimmo?

d'Kong76 Nov 02 2015 09:08 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Someone, MFS I think, posted the list yesterday in another thread. I looked at BA site and read some other page that said Matz stays on because of time lost or something like that. I thought it was odd that he would still be listed too. CF, didn't you want Reynolds to be the everyday shortstop early in the season? Have you soured on him that much already?

Ceetar Nov 02 2015 09:10 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Frayed Knot wrote: DL time counts as service time as far as contract status and all of that. But I believe rookie status is determined by active roster time and the prospect ratings orgs usually follow that. it's specifically an inning/PA count. Conforto was 60 over or so.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 02 2015 09:14 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Ceetar wrote: it's specifically an inning/PA count. No, it's more than that: Determining rookie status: A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list). I guess Matz probably didn't have 45 days on the active roster before September 1.

Centerfield Nov 02 2015 09:18 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

d'Kong76 wrote: Someone, MFS I think, posted the list yesterday in another thread. I looked at BA site and read some other page that said Matz stays on because of time lost or something like that. I thought it was odd that he would still be listed too. CF, didn't you want Reynolds to be the everyday shortstop early in the season? Have you soured on him that much already? He had great numbers last year over AA and AAA. Heard a report that he was the best defender in the Mets system. Then he dropped his OPS over 100 points this year while playing in Vegas. Looks more to be a 1 year fluke rather than actual progress.

Edgy MD Nov 02 2015 09:28 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

The Dodgers and Cubs couldn't get him out in the post-season.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 02 2015 09:42 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Fun to see a name I don't know anything about, Luis Carpio, make the list. I imagine a combination of Mike Carp and Jorge Julio

Frayed Knot Nov 02 2015 09:54 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

From the on-line Q&A session re: the future of the middle infield Q: In three years who do you think the 2B and SS are? A: I’m inclined to say Amed Rosario at shortstop and Wilmer Flores at second base. Obviously that means players like Dilson Herrera, Gavin Cecchini and Matt Reynolds could be utility players or trade fodder (though nothing ever plays out as planned in baseball, it seems). Flores showed me something this year by hitting 16 HR during the season, playing an adequate shortstop at a time when the club really needs him and getting better swings on RHPs as the season progressed. and then later in the session: Las Vegas SS Matt Reynolds has a lower ceiling than most prospects in the Mets top 20, but he’s much closer to his ceiling than anyone outside the top five overall.

Centerfield Nov 02 2015 10:10 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

In other words, he's nothing spectacular, but he's around. Kind of like the Monica Lewinsky of baseball.

Edgy MD Nov 02 2015 11:23 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Fun to see a name I don't know anything about, Luis Carpio, make the list. I imagine a combination of Mike Carp and Jorge Julio Handsome 18-year-old Venezuelan who jumped the GCL, going from the DSL to Kingsport, where you'll almost never see a top-ten prospect. But he got on base with a Dilsonian efficiency. He explodes out of a a squat stance like Ricky Henderson, but isn't a big stealer. They like how he moves on D but they aren't projecting a lot of growth in his game in the future.

bmfc1 Nov 02 2015 11:25 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

The AFL All-Star Game is on MLBN this Saturday at 8. You can see Dominick Smith. http://m.mlb.com/news/article/156166350 ... =153494546 [u:d37g0f0g] The AFL on MLBN (the Mets players are on Salt River):[/u:d37g0f0g] Friday, November 6, 2:30 PM: Peoria Javelinas at Surprise Saguaros (at Salt River Fields in Scottsdale, AZ) Saturday, November 7, 8:00 PM: Fall Stars Game from Salt River Fields in Scottsdale, AZ Wednesday, November 11, 9:00 PM: Peoria Javelinas at Salt River Rafters Saturday, November 14, 8:00 PM (Military Appreciation Day): Surprise Saguaros at Salt River Rafters Saturday, November 21, 3:00 PM: Arizona Fall League Championship Game from Scottsdale Stadium in Scottsdale, AZ

John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 06 2015 05:10 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Keith Law filed this from the Arizona Fall League: Mets first baseman Dom Smith is one of the top pure hitting prospects in the minors, and he showed it this week in the Valley with hard-hit ball after hard-hit ball and some outstanding at-bats (as well as a couple where he barked at the ump over some strike calls). I counted eight hard-hit balls in play, none more impressive than the enormous home run he hit to right-center off a slider away from a right-hander, although the broken-bat single he got off a 96 mph fastball in on his hands was almost as stunning given what it says about his hand and wrist strength. Smith's swing is so simple, and despite the lack of home runs in two full seasons in the minors -- both in bad power parks -- there is raw power in there and it's going to come as he moves up the ladder.

Edgy MD Nov 06 2015 11:31 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

If Smith comes strong, bloody hell.

MFS62 Nov 08 2015 02:23 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 08 2015 07:25 PM

Smith won't be in the AFL All Star game because of an injury that will keep him out 1-2 weeks. I read this a few days ago, but can't find the link. The Mets will be the only team without an ASG representative because SS Gavin Cecchini will be playing for Team USA. OE: found it. It was Rubin: NEW YORK -- First baseman Dominic Smith’s torrid start in the Arizona Fall League is on hold. Smith, a top New York Mets prospect, suffered a strain and may be sidelined for the next week or two. The 11th overall pick in the 2013 draft, Smith had been selected for Saturday’s AFL Rising Stars Game, but no longer is expected to participate. He is hitting .385 with one homer, five RBIs and a .519 on-base percentage through 12 games with Salt River. Smith, 20, is expected to open next season with Double-A Binghamton. He was named the Florida State League player of the year while competing for Class A St. Lucie in 2015. Smith hit .305 with six homers and 79 RBIs in 456 at-bats and also displayed above-average defense. Later

Centerfield Nov 08 2015 02:58 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

I am really excited about Dom Smith. He sounds like he has the potential to be Keith Hernandez or John Olerud. If he ever develops power? Wow. Am really liking the idea of Smith-Conforto in the future.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Nov 12 2015 02:42 AM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Dom Smith conducting an in-game interview during tonight's AFL game, sounding bright and more than a little intense. Also, not playing (and out of action for the last week or so), because of a muscle strain, apparently?

Centerfield Nov 17 2015 01:38 AM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Reading up on this list now. Matz is already here, Rosario is years away and hasn't started hitting yet. Basically only Dom Smith and Cecchini look to be difference makers. The rest kinda sound like filler. Not a real power hitting prospect in the entire organization.

Edgy MD Nov 17 2015 02:28 AM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

The nature of the system and the game is that power doesn't typically start to outwardly reveal itself until around AA. Certainly was true of Conforto. Duda too. I think folks would certainly describe Becerra as a power prospect.

Centerfield Nov 17 2015 10:27 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

That's true. No one hits for power in St. Lucie. And you are correct about Becerra. It will be interesting to see how the farm system produces now that we are making the transition from Minaya-era draft picks (Matz is, I believe, the last one) to Alderson-era draft picks (Conforto and Plawecki I think are the first). Not on this list is Dilson Herrera, who I think can be a terrific player. It will be weird not debuting an ace this year. That's like kinda what we do.

Frayed Knot Nov 18 2015 09:59 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Anytime you debut the likes of Syndergaard, Matz, and Conforto in the same season your prospect list is going to take a serious hit.

Frayed Knot Nov 19 2015 02:20 AM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

BASEBALL PROSPECTUS is just starting up their 2016 prospect previews and they happened to kick it off with the Tigers. So just for fun, let's see how they look at what we gave up for two months of Yoenis #1 Michael Fulmer, RHP DOB: 03/15/1993 -- 6’ 3” 200 lbs. -- Bats/Throws: R/R Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 44th overall in the 2011 MLB Draft by the New York Mets; signed for $950,000; acquired in Yoenis Cespedes trade. Previous Ranking(s): NR 2015 Stats: 2.24 ERA, 124 IP, 104 H, 30 BB, 125 K at High-A St. Lucie, Double-A Binghamton, and Double-A Erie. Future Tools: 65 fastball, 60 slider, 50 change Role: 55—Above-average starting pitcher The last few years saw Fulmer show glimpses of what made him a top-50 draft prospect back in 2011, and he finally put it all together in 2015. More than one scout told me that Fulmer was not just the most improved pitcher in the Mets system, but in all of baseball. His fastball took a step up, going from 91-93 mph to consistently sitting in the mid-90s, touching 97. The slider is another plus pitch, an 86-88 offering with hard, downward tilt that he threw for strikes more consistently in 2015 than in previous seasons. He’ll also show an average curveball with some spin and 11-5 break, and a fringe-average change that is the weak link in his development. He’s always thrown strikes, as suggested by his 2.9 BB/9 career mark, but his command experienced a bump up, thanks to an improved ability to repeat his high three-quarters arm slot and delivery. The question marks going forward for Fulmer are whether he can show the same stuff and produce the same results at higher levels while handling a bigger workload (he hasn’t topped the 125-inning mark). If he can, he’s a potential no. 2 starter, with high-leverage reliever a more likely possibility if his health and consistency issues persist. As bad as the Tigers farm still is, Fulmer is a legit top-of-the-system option, and represents a strong return for an impending free agent in Cespedes. #10 Luis Cessa, RHP DOB: 04/25/1992 -- 6’3” 190 lbs. -- Bats/Throws: R/R Drafted/Acquired: Signed July 9, 2008 out of Mexico by the New York Mets; acquired in the Yoenis Cespedes trade. Previous Ranking(s): Unranked 2015 Stats: 4.52 ERA, 139.1 IP, 163 H, 36 BB, 119 K at Double-A Binghamton, Triple-A Las Vegas, and Triple-A Toledo Future Tools: 60 fastball, 50 change Role: 40—Back-end starter/middle-innings reliever The “other” arm acquired in the Cespedes deal, Cessa doesn’t offer the same kind of upside as Fulmer but does have a chance to pitch in a big-league rotation. The fastball is plus, generally sitting 92-94 with some downhill plane and sink, and could play up in shorter spurts because of his arm strength. The change is his best secondary pitch because of his arm speed and it features some late fade. His fringe-average slider will sometimes flatten, but it’s a pitch he throws for strikes with tilt when he finishes the delivery. It’s very much a back-end profile—and Detroit may be tempted to see if the stuff plays up in a bullpen role—but his ability to throw strikes does give him a chance to pitch every fifth day.

Centerfield Nov 19 2015 02:31 AM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Fullmer sounds pretty good. That was not fun at all.

Frayed Knot Nov 19 2015 02:45 AM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Centerfield wrote: Fullmer sounds pretty good. That was not fun at all. Eh, I'd still do the deal again in a second. And he's also not there yet. Don't skip over the usual caveats about how if he DOESN'T develop as hoped they predict a good career as a solid bullpen arm which, if we had kept him, could have led to the 20/20 hindsight lament about how we should have dealt him back in '15 during his one solid year when he peaked in AA. Well, in this case, we did! So, yeah, he'll be a top 50 prospect this winter (prolly even top 25 and top 10 among RHPs) and may go on to have a great career. But I also remember the year Homer Bailey and Phil Hughes were 1 & 1A among pitching prospects (and top 5-10 overall). And while both are in the midst of decent careers, neither are the type you build a franchise around. And if we were reluctant to deal away pitching this year, when could we ever?!?

Centerfield Nov 19 2015 03:56 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

I agree. Even knowing what we know now, that Cespedes is likely gone, you still have to make the deal. It's just that when the deal was made I was all like "Great! We didn't trade Syndergaard, Matz and Conforto! Who the fuck is Michael Fullmer? I don't care!" And now it just hurts a little more. Here's to hoping he's Kevin Mulvey. Also, Dilson Herrera dropped off the list this year as well. That's quite a haul for one year: Syndergaard, Matz, Conforto, Herrera.

Frayed Knot Nov 24 2015 01:47 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

The Sickels List Overall this system has thinned out mainly due to graduations. There remains a quite of bit of potential particularly at the lower levels and the Mets obviously put a great deal of focus on up-the-middle defense. I like the Latin American signings of Gimenez and Guerrero but the Mets have also done good work developing guys with lower bonuses and less press into useful assets. 1) Steven Matz, LHP, Grade A-/A: Age 24, 2.05 ERA with 107/34 K/BB in 105 innings in minors, 2.27 ERA with 34/10 K/BB in 36 innings in the majors plus work in the post-season. A great story, hometown boy who overcame injuries, major league ready. Only question really is durability but most recent injury was not arm-related. 2) Dominic Smith, 1B, Grade B: Age 20, hit .305/.354/.417 with 33 doubles, six homers, 35 walks, 75 strikeouts in 456 at-bats in High-A. Strong feel for hitting with good defensive reviews, main doubt remains power projection but has made some progress. Still draws James Loney comps. 3) Amed Rosario, SS, Grade B: Age 20, hit .253/.302/.329 with 23 walks, 78 strikeouts in 395 at-bats in High-A. Bat is not very good right now but he is quite young, glove looks very strong, will need to boost OBP skills and/or increase power but young enough for that to happen. 4) Gavin Cecchini, SS, Grade B-: Age 21, hit .317/.377/.442 in Double-A, bat is improving but defense has stagnated and there’s some talk now he may have to switch to second base. Interesting how his reputation has changed from good-field-no-hit to good-hit-?-field over the last two years. 5) Brandon Nimmo, OF, Grade B-: Age 22, hit .269/.362/.372 between Double-A and Triple-A. Power is not developing but he gets on base. Looking more and more like a platoon/role player but that can still have value. 6) Wuilmer Becerra, OF, Grade B-: Age 21, hit .290/.342/.423 with nine homers, 16 steals, 33/96 BB/K in 449 at-bats in Low-A. Solid right field tool set and growing into his power, I think he is a breakout candidate for 2016. 7) Desmond Lindsay, Of, Grade B-/C+: Projection pick, age 18, second round pick in 2015, hit .263/.364/.386 in 114 at-bats between rookie ball and New York-Penn League. High-ceiling player with raw power, speed, strong overall tools, another right field candidate who will need time to develop but could be a multi-category regular. 8) Marcos Molina, RHP, Grade C+/B-: Age 20, all the rage a year ago after 2014 domination of NY-P but missed much of 2015 with injuries, posted 4.57 ERA with 36/11 K/BB in 41 innings in High-A. Second-best pitching arm in the system behind Matz but questions about durability, long-term role preclude a higher grade at this time. 9) Milton Ramos, SS, Grade C+: Age 20, hit .317/.341/.415 in Appalachian League, third round pick in 2014, superior defensive ability at shortstop and hit for average this year, lacks distance power, part of Mets focus to stay strong up the middle with gloves. 10) Luis Carpio, SS, Grade C+: Age 18, hit .304/.372/.359 in Appy League, another defense-oriented player though likely to wind up at second base eventually. Another contact hitter lacking present power but young enough to get better. 11) Ali Sanchez, C, Grade C+: Age 18, Venezuelan catcher hit .278/.339/.315 in rookie ball, threw out almost 50% of runners with very low error and passed ball rates, glove draws raves and may hit eventually. 12) Chris Flexen, RHP, Grade C+: Age 21, Tommy John recovery guy easy to overlook, posted 1.87 ERA with 33/7 K/BB in 34 innings in Low-A after returning in August, looks fully recovered at this stage. A major sleeper before he got hurt and has regained that status with renewed health. 13) Eudor Garcia, 3B, Grade C+: Age 21, hit .296/.340/.442 with nine homers, 22 walks, 95 strikeouts in 398 at-bats in Low-A, third round pick in 2014 from El Paso Community College. Defensive projection, strike zone judgment are questions but one of the highest ceiling bats in the system. Could rank as high as nine. 14) Andres Gimenez, SS, Grade C+: Venezuelan shortstop signed for $1,200,000, hasn’t played yet, many experts rated him as the top Venezuelan talent available last year, has a chance to stay at shortstop and is expected to hit for average with a chance for moderate power. 15) Gregory Guerrero, SS, Grade C+: Dominican shortstop signed for $1,500,000, cousin of Vlad Guerrero Jr who signed with Blue Jays, Gregory doesn’t have the same kind of bat but is still expected to hit for average with decent power and more defensive versatility. Could slot at second for a high-ceiling DP combo with Gimenez. 16) Akeel Morris, RHP, Grade C+: Age 23, posted 2.05 ERA with 81/29 K/BB in 61 inning between High-A and Double-A, walked three in one major league innings. No question about velocity and K/IP isn’t lying about his stuff but walks obviously a big factor, could close eventually if he can solve the control issue. 17) Jeff McNeil, INF, Grade C+: Age 23, 12th round pick in 2013 from Long Beach State, hit .312/.373/.382 with 16 steals in High-A. Very good glove, versatile, scrappy type, hits from left side, career .305/.375/.389 hitter. Utility projection but not impossible he could exceed that. 18) Matt Reynolds, SS, Grade C+/C: Age 24, hit disappointing .267/.31/.402 in Triple-A after hitting .333/.385/.479 at the same level in 2014. Another utility projection with versatile glove you can play just about anywhere, bat not as good as it looked in ’14 but could probably hit .250 and hold a bench job. 19) Max Wotell, LHP, Grade C+/C: Age 19, third round pick from North Carolina high school this year, posted 2.53 ERA with 16/9 K/BB in 11 innings in rookie ball. Long way off, but projectable type that the Mets have had good luck with in the past. 20) Jhoan Urena, 3B, Grade C+/C: Age 21, hit disappointing .222/.274/.302 between High-A and rookie ball rehab, missed much of season with a wrist injury and hit very poorly after returning. Was much better when healthy in 2014 (.300/.356/.431 in NY-P). Could rebound. FK: Lots of lower-level potential-types particularly in middle of the diamond positions, the kinds who are still a ways off and could swing wildly in either direction over the next few years. Some of the discussion/comments at the end are worth reading for some more detail and as a reminder that opinions vary and none of this stuff is etched in stone.

Frayed Knot Nov 25 2015 07:41 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

More on Dom Smith. This from BA who had him on their top AFL prospects list. While Smith verges on earning the dreaded “bad body” label, he silenced any doubts about his hitting ability in the AFL with a strong .362/.483/.511 batting line. Scouts who observed the bulky lefthanded hitter earlier in his minor league career were pleased to see a more confident hitter capable of pulling the ball better and turning on pitches, and expect that Smith’s long-awaited power is about to emerge. He has a picturesque swing, with the power in his hands and wrists allowing him to make hard contact to all fields, and he showed solid plate discipline with 12 walks in 60 plate appearances. Smith grades as a plus defender at first base, with good hands and enough agility around the bag. He missed a couple of weeks with an oblique injury but made it back to the Salt River lineup for the last few games of the fall season.

Nymr83 Nov 26 2015 01:45 AM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Frayed Knot wrote: The Sickels List thats an awfully big block of quote there, why not provide the list but let Sickels get his click to read the comments?

Nymr83 Nov 26 2015 01:54 AM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Nice to see Beccera showing up in so many places, the Dickey Trade is the gift that keeps on giving

MFS62 Nov 26 2015 02:32 AM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Nymr83 wrote: Nice to see Beccera showing up in so many places, the Dickey Trade is the gift that keeps on giving Unfortunately, he has been left off the 40 man roster and exposed to the upcoming Rule V Draft. He may be giving his gifts to some other team next year. Later

Ashie62 Nov 26 2015 09:24 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Keith Law filed this from the Arizona Fall League: Mets first baseman Dom Smith is one of the top pure hitting prospects in the minors, and he showed it this week in the Valley with hard-hit ball after hard-hit ball and some outstanding at-bats (as well as a couple where he barked at the ump over some strike calls). I counted eight hard-hit balls in play, none more impressive than the enormous home run he hit to right-center off a slider away from a right-hander, although the broken-bat single he got off a 96 mph fastball in on his hands was almost as stunning given what it says about his hand and wrist strength. Smith's swing is so simple, and despite the lack of home runs in two full seasons in the minors -- both in bad power parks -- there is raw power in there and it's going to come as he moves up the ladder. He was so bad a year or two ago his ladder was cracking.

Frayed Knot Nov 27 2015 04:34 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Ashie62 wrote: He was so bad a year or two ago his ladder was cracking. 1) No he wasn't. 2) Even if he was, that's why you don't make final decisions on teenagers playing in the low minors. The questions around Smith have been about his lack of HR output. But, while he may be destined never to develop the kind of pop seen in top 1B-men, power is often the last thing to come around with a prospect. In the meantime, while playing in parks known to severely hamper left-handed power (Savannah & PSL), he's been getting hits (.290 career BA to date), getting his doubles (59 over two seasons), getting on base (.350+ OBAs), and playing good defense. I'll take that from a guy who won't turn 21 until the middle of next season playing in leagues where he's usually been ~2.5 years younger than the average position player.

Edgy MD Nov 27 2015 04:42 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

The greater question is Ashie's zeal to bail. First guy on a bandwagon when things are seemingly going well, and first guy off when they seemingly aren't. Be patient, man. Let things play out. It's the minors.

Frayed Knot Jan 29 2016 02:10 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Baseball Prospectus checks in with their Top 101 Prospect List Steven Matz = 9 Dom Smith = 86 Amed Rosario = 96 1) Corey Seager - SS, Dodgers 2) Byron Buxton - OF, Twins 3) Lucas Giolito - RHP, Nationals 4) J.P. Crawford - SS, Phillies 5) Nomar Mazara - OF, Rangers 6) Julio Urias - LHP, Dodgers 7) Yoan Moncada - 2B, Red Sox 8) Joey Gallo - 3B, Rangers 9) Matz 10) Alex Reyes - RHP, Cardinals

Centerfield Jan 29 2016 02:30 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Would have hoped Dom Smith would be higher. I guess we have to see if he develops into his power. Surprised to see Rosario on the list. I know the potential is there but he really hasn't proven a thing. Disappointed not to see Cecchini. I guess the rest of baseball isn't as high on him. Not surprised that Nimmo is not on the list. His stock has really fallen. I think the list looks pretty barren at first glance, but it would look a lot better with Conforto and Herrera mixed in. Basically the only reason they're not there is because they were too good not to be promoted.

MFS62 Jan 29 2016 02:35 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Here's another list: http://prospect361.com/prospects/2016-t ... prospects/ It has Matz lower, but includes Nimmo. Later

Edgy MD Jan 29 2016 04:10 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Cecchini is a little strange. A year and a half ago, his defense was treated as a sure thing but there were detractors with regard to his offense. Now his offense has come on strong, but folks are uncertain about his defense. It's fun (from an objective point of view, anyhow) to see a prospect that the analysts are split on, and the Mets have three, with folks watching Smith, Cecchini, and Rosario and sometimes seeing opposite things. I guess there's some splitting on Nimmo too, with some still faithful that extra base power will come, and others seeing him as over-patient, and getting stuck by making weak contact with two strikes.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 29 2016 07:20 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Frayed Knot wrote: 8) Joey Gallo - 3B, Rangers "Did I say Joey Gallo? I'm Joey Callow!"

Frayed Knot Jan 29 2016 07:52 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: 8) Joey Gallo - 3B, Rangers "Did I say Joey Gallo? I'm Joey Callow!" I heard he's crazy. [youtube]zCCOQpx5ux4[/youtube]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 30 2016 04:49 AM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Moncada, Urias, and a lot of the top 50 are projectables from the international signings of the last few years. So many disgruntled Metsies have been most disappointed (pre-Cespedes) in the Mets inability/unwillingness to supplement the pitching with major-league-level free-agent talent, ostensibly for budget reasons. Whereas my biggest "alas"es of late have come when I've seen international-prospect-signings flock again and again to other teams from other large markets; the Dodgers have gorged at that trough, to be sure, but there have been plenty of Moncadas and Eddy Julio Martinezes and such around for anyone willing to dangle a signing bonus that would snag, say, a solid middle reliever for a year.

Frayed Knot Jan 30 2016 02:03 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: So many disgruntled Metsies have been most disappointed (pre-Cespedes) in the Mets inability/unwillingness to supplement the pitching with major-league-level free-agent talent, ostensibly for budget reasons. Whereas my biggest "alas"es of late have come when I've seen international-prospect-signings flock again and again to other teams from other large markets; Very much so and I'm surprised this hasn't been a bigger target for the boo-birds than it has -- although, as is often the case with int'l talent, sometimes the emerging stars are those who were targets in the bidding wars as 16 y/o athletic lumps of clay (and/or older Cubans who are in a semi-separate category among Latin talent), but almost as often it seems these now highly-touted prospects were just run of the mill signings who happened to blossom. The Yanx, for instance, made a ridiculous dive into the int'l FA kiddie pool a couple of years ago -- smashing by several multiples the then newly imposed spending limits and incurring all kinds of lux-tax penalties and future restrictions in the process -- and the current view on that haul is that they're not getting much bang for their (zillions of) bucks.

Frayed Knot Jan 30 2016 02:06 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Tis the season for prospect ratings, fa la la la la ... MLB.com Matz - 15 Smith - 51 Rosario - 79 Cecchini - 87 and a very similar top 10 to BP's 1 - Corey Seager 2 - Byron Buxton 3 - Lucas Giolito 4 - Julio Urias 5 - JP Crawford 6 - Orlando Arcia (SS - Brewers) 7 - Yoan Moncata 8 - Dansby Swanson 9 - Joey Gallo 10 - Tyler Glasnow (RHP - Pirates)

Frayed Knot Feb 13 2016 01:37 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Both Baseball America and ESPN's Keith Law came out with their prospect lists on Friday Law was less bullish on Matz than others (citing durability issues) and ranked him 37th. BA went with 13 which was much closer to where other touts have him. On the flip side, Law was higher than any of the others on both Dom Smith ("one of the best pure bats") ranking him as the best overall NYM prospect at 29th, and Amed Rosario (42nd). BA slotted Smith 79th & Rosario 58th An overall mash-up of four separate lists (BA, BP, MLB, ESPN) shows a Top-15 of: 1 -- Corey Seager, SS, Dodgers 2 -- Byron Buxton, OF, Twins 3 -- Lucas Giolito, RHP, Nationals 4 -- J.P. Crawford, SS, Phillies 5 -- Julio Urias, LHP, Dodgers 6 -- Yoan Moncada, 2B, Red Sox 7 -- Orlando Aria, SS, Brewers 8 -- Alex Reyes, RHP, Cardinals 9 -- Joey Gallo, 3B, Rangers 10 -- Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pirates 11 -- Nomar Mazara, OF, Rangers 12 -- Blake Snell, LHP, Rays 13 -- Trea Turner, SS, Nationals 14 -- Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves 15 -- Steven Matz, LHP, Mets with Smith at 59th and Rosario 65th As for all those NL East players in the Top-15: - we'll almost definitely see Trea Turner to start the year, as a platoon player at minimum, as he got some time as a September call-up last season. Former #13 overall draft pick by SD in 2013 out of NC State, dealt to Washington in a multi player/team deal in Dec 2014. - and we'll see Lucas Giolito before the year is up although probably not to start as the Nats are likely to limit the workload on him and his already TJ-repaired, 21 y/o arm. Former 16th overall pick by the Nats in 2014 out of HS in California - J.P. Crawford is just 21 although already has a half-season of AA ball under his belt. Probably won't start the year w/Philly although may be up before the season is out. 16th overall pick in 2013 out of a California HS - although the #1 overall pick of the 2015 draft, the D'Backs dealt Dansby Swanson to the Braves just six months later in a five player deal involving (RHP) Shelby Miller. A college player for Vanderbilt although originally from nearby Marietta, Georgia (I think 70% of the Braves roster comes through Marietta), he has just a stint in short-season pro ball under his belt so, even with the Braves tradition of aggressive promotion, we're unlikely to see him in the big city in 2016

Edgy MD Feb 13 2016 02:01 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Law was also cuckoo about Rosario, his rank tempered by the reality that he hasn't caught up to his league yet, but he predicted that Amed could be top ten in a year. I've come to think it's pretty deceptive that a team's rank should fall based on players "graduating." The idea that one team should score high because of a 21-year-old shortstop in AA, while another should get bupkis because their 21-year-old shortstop prospect already has held his own for three months in the bigs does not feed a particularly accurate picture of the two teams' long-range outlook. I think it would be better to choose an age, and then rank all teams based on the players that they have that haven't reached their 25th birthday or such.

Frayed Knot Feb 13 2016 03:01 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Edgy MD wrote: Law was also cuckoo about Rosario, his rank tempered by the reality that he hasn't caught up to his league yet, but he predicted that Amed could be top ten in a year. It's all about the bat going forward for him. Already described as a potential "impact player" for defense and speed, merely a decent bat attached to all that on a 20 y/o SS will make one a good prospect. If his offense develops beyond that ... !! I've come to think it's pretty deceptive that a team's rank should fall based on players "graduating." The idea that one team should score high because of a 21-year-old shortstop in AA, while another should get bupkis because their 21-year-old shortstop prospect already has held his own for three months in the bigs does not feed a particularly accurate picture of the two team's long-range outlooks. I think it would be better to choose an age and rank all teams based on the players that they have that haven't reached their 25th birthday or such. BP does a list of exactly that for each team - although I'm not sure if they've ever ranked all the teams that way. They should get to their Mets prospect review in about two weeks.

MFS62 Feb 15 2016 01:08 AM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

There's another De Aza in the organization - a 19 year old infielder, Yeffry De Aza. http://www.baseball-reference.com/regis ... aza-000yef Who woulda' thunk it? Later

Frayed Knot Feb 25 2016 02:03 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Baseball Prospectus has their Mets prospect list out and there's a lot of good stuff there. First of all the individual player profiles are out from behind the pay-wall this year - such as this one for #2 Amed Rosario 2. Amed Rosario, SS DOB: 11/20/1995 Height/Weight: 6’2” 170 lbs. Bats/Throws: R/R Drafted/Acquired: Signed July 2012 out of the Dominican Republic by the New York Mets for $1.75 million. Previous Ranking(s): #4 (Org), #78 (overall) 2015 Stats: .253/.302/.329; 0 HR, 13 SB in 427 PA between High-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton Future Tools: 60 glove, 60 arm, 50 run, 50 hit Role: 55—Above-average regular at shortstop Amed Rosario is a good example of the folly of trying to project 16-year-old shortstops (and they are all 16-year-old shortstops). When the Mets signed Rosario for a bit under two million dollars in the summer of 2012, scouts raved about his offensive potential, but worried that he might grow off of shortstop. The name Wilmer Flores was invoked as a comp (who himself was famously compared to Miguel Cabrera shortly after he signed). Rosario was already merely an average runner in Kingsport in 2013 at 17, and looked very raw defensively (as you might expect for every 17-year-old shortstop, well, other than the one ranked right below him). Since then though, Rosario has improved by leaps and bounds in the field, and hasn't really filled out as expected. Rosario is still far from a finished project, but he now looks like a good bet to be an everyday shortstop, and potentially an above-average one. Rosario's bat hasn't seen the same gains as his glove so far as a professional. The Mets have given him a series of aggressive assignments over the past three seasons, but 2015 was by far his stiffest test. He was the youngest player in the Florida State League, and had only played a week or so of full-season ball prior to this past season. He was over-matched for much of the season. Rosario has tinkered with his swing mechanics since he first landed stateside. In rookie ball he had one of the oddest swing paths you'll see, tracing a full circle with his hands as he loaded the swing, and his complex mechanics often left his upper and lower halves out of sync. Since then he has added strength and simplified his load, relying on his strong, quick wrists to generate some gap power. He has some feel for contact, but has struggled with spin from the more advanced arms he has faced. As long as the glove continues to improve, the Mets may keep moving him up the organizational ladder, but it will continue to be tough to get a read on the ultimate offensive ceiling. It is unlikely he will grow into much more than fringe-average raw, and the approach and swing will likely limit how playable it is in games, but the defensive tools should be enough to carry Rosario to a major league role not that dissimilar from “good Alcides Escobar” seasons. Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Well, as you’ll see as you read through this list, it’s not the best system for fantasy value. Rosario was a candidate for the Dynasty 101 this year, but just hasn’t shown enough with the bat yet to get there. He can still reach that low-five-category contributor status that his tools hint at, but he just may not be as interesting in fantasy leagues at peak than we thought at this time last year. Major league ETA: 2018 The overall list itself skews quite young, something that's to be expected from an org that made a number of promotions recently and then thinned things out a bit further with to feed last season's stretch run. LHP Steven Matz SS Amed Rosario SS/2B Luis Carpio SS Gavin Cecchini 1B Dominic Smith OF Brandon Nimmo OF Desmond Lindsay RF Wuilmer Becerra RHP Robert Gsellman C Ali Sanchez But it also seems to reflect a preference here for tools over more immediate readiness, all of which results in a list that includes three players with (Gulp!) 1997 birthdays!!! Shit, I think there were some here who were discussing NYM baseball over the internet at that time. They also tack on five additional players who they dub as "interesting", give an 25-and-under Top-10 list (regardless of prospect status), plus give an overall review of the state of the system itself and of the front office.

MFS62 Feb 25 2016 02:28 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Go to MetsMinor.net for an article regarding recent International signings. Signed and reported as/of 2/22/16: Shervyen Newton- Inf- Netherlands Pedro Nolasco- of- Dominican Republic Miguel Pinedo- P- Columbia Brian Campusano- P- Dominican Republic Miguel Ramirez- P-Dominican Republic Andres Regnault- C- Venezuela Edison Valdez- OF- Dominican Republic David Lozano- INF- Columbia Jorge Martinez-C- Columbia As with what FK noted about the Rosario signing, the opinions on these guys may change over time. Later

Edgy MD Feb 25 2016 03:02 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

MFS62 wrote: Go to MetsMinor.net for an article regarding recent International signings. Thanks, MetsMinor.net. But you guys might want to go to WorldAtlas.com for info on how to spell Colombia.

Vic Sage Feb 25 2016 03:21 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Feb 26 2016 07:42 PM

Based on all the lists i've seen to date, here's a list (by position) of 50 promising young players (under 25) in our system who are not an anticipated to have a significant role on this year's major league roster: C- A.Sanchez, Mazeika, Diehl, Brosher 1b - D.Smith, D.Winningham, Oberste 2b - Herrera, Reynolds, McNeil, SS - Rosario, Cecchini, Carpio, Ramos, Giminez, Guillorme, Guerrero 3b - E.Garcia, Urena, Thompson, K.Hernandez OF - Nimmo, Lindsay, Beccera, R.Ramirez, Kacmarski,J.Mora,V.Cruzado,R.Cespedes P - Montero, Morris, Molina, Gsellman, Ynoa, Flexen, Wotell(L), Bowman, Mateo, H.Gonzalez, Oswalt, Aceto, Gibbons, Szapucki(L), Crismatt, J.Simon(L), L.Taylor, Medina, Badamo Did i miss any? Who among these players are likely to have a significant major league career, if any?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 25 2016 04:13 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Feb 25 2016 04:17 PM

Define "significant." The closer they are, the more likely the impact, right? I'm thinking Herrera is a likely contributor for a few years, at least; health allowing, Nimmo and Montero seems like they've got better than a puncher's chance of the same. Rosario's glove seems to give him a similar floor. But significant careers? Hu noes, right?

Vic Sage Feb 25 2016 04:16 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Define "significant." Significant = at least 3 years as a full-time player (or at least 2000 major league plate appearances, or 500 IP) The closer they are, the more likely the impact, right? No, the closer they are, the more information we have in order to project. But there are guys further down the list whose ceilings are much higher than guys like Reynolds, who is close but looks to be utility fielder at best and is unlikely to have a "significant" career. I'm not asking who will make an impact SOONEST, but who'll make the GREATEST impact. I'm thinking Herrera is a likely contributor for a few years, at least; health allowing, Nimmo and Montero seems like they've got better than a puncher's chance of the same. I would agree, but since guys like Rosario and Dom Smith, and the OF Lindsay, and guys like that, are showing up high on our top prospects lists, so i think we also need to consider the guys who have not already gotten major league ABs or are otherwise right on the cusp.

Edgy MD Mar 07 2016 03:58 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Luis Carpio, already seemingly gravitating toward second, looks to be sidelined for an extended period of time following surgery on his throwing shoulder last week.

Edgy MD Mar 10 2016 03:21 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

FanGraphs has gotten into the act. The good news is that they go deep and have some names you won't see anywhere else. The perhaps weird news is that, however they crunch their numbers, it's really different. They have a strange ranking system that really bumps lower-level guys with little (or no) professional experience up high, and John Gant, who was widely looked at as a second- or third-tier prospect by most other rankers, was ranked as the Braves' second-best prospect by FanGraphs, and they openly state he would've been the second-best with the Mets too. Maybe they're doing this right and everybody else is wrong. Hope not, at least with regards to Gant. Interesting how Marcos Molina remains in the top ten despite being out of the year. And man, it's raining shortstops down on the farm. Click the link for some pretty thorough analysis all down the line. 1. Steven Matz, LHP Current Level/Age: MLB/24.8, 6’2/200, R/L Acquired: Drafted 72nd overall (2nd round) in 2009 out of New York HS by NYM for $895,000 bonus Previous Rank: 7 2. Desmond Lindsay, OF Current Level/Age: Low-A/19.2, 6’0/200, R/R Acquired: Drafted 53rd overall (2nd round) in 2015 out of Florida HS by NYM for $1.1427 million bonus Previous Rank: NA 3. Amed Rosario, SS Current Level/Age: Double-A/20.4, 6’2/170, R/R Acquired: Signed in 2012 out of Dominican Republic by NYM for $1.75 million bonus Previous Rank: 3 4. Gregory Guerrero, SS, N/A 5. Dominic Smith, 1B, Double-A 6. Gavin Cecchini, SS, Double-A 7. Marcos Molina, RHP, Triple-A 8. Wuilmer Becerra, OF, Single-A 9. Luis Guillorme, SS, Single-A 10. Luis Carpio, SS, Rookie 11. Milton Ramos, SS, Rookie 12. Seth Lugo, RHP, Double-A 13. Andres Gimenez, SS, Rookie 14. Jhoan Urena, 3B, Rookie 15. Brandon Nimmo, OF, Triple-A 16. Eudor Garcia, 3B, Single-A 17. Ali Sanchez, C, Rookie 18. Matt Reynolds, SS, MLB 19. Max Wotell, LHP, Rookie 20. Josh Smoker, LHP, Triple-A 21. Akeel Morris, RHP, MLB 22. Dario Alvarez, LHP, MLB 23. Chris Flexen, RHP, Triple-A 24. Gabriel Ynoa, RHP, Double-A 25. Robert Gsellman, RHP, Double-A 26. LJ Mazzilli, 2B, Double-A 27. Kevin Kaczmarski, OF, Rookie 28. Mickey Jannis, RHP, Double-A Honorable Mention: Jonathan Johnson, 2B/3B, Class-A (Interesting profile here) Quick Hits [list]Upper level hitters: [*]3B/UTIL Jeff McNeil[/*:m] [*]3B David Thompson[/*:m] [*]CF Raphael Ramirez[/*:m] [*]OF Ricardo Cespedes[/*:m] [*]C Patrick Mazeika[/*:m] [*]OF John Mora Lower level pitchers:[/*:m] [*]LHP Thomas Szapucki[/*:m][/list:u]

Vic Sage Mar 10 2016 03:41 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

8 shortstops out of the top 18 prospects. You figure we'll get SOMEBODY to develop at some point.

Benjamin Grimm Mar 10 2016 04:02 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

You'd think so. Hopefully they keep and commit to the right one!

Edgy MD Mar 10 2016 04:23 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Apart from the one, there may be a future second-baseman, third-baseman, or center fielder among them.

Frayed Knot Mar 30 2016 12:49 AM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Frayed Knot wrote: Centerfield wrote: Fullmer sounds pretty good. That was not fun at all. Eh, I'd still do the deal again in a second. And he's also not there yet. Don't skip over the usual caveats about how if he DOESN'T develop as hoped they predict a good career as a solid bullpen arm ... So, yeah, he'll be a top 50 prospect this winter (prolly even top 25 and top 10 among RHPs) and may go on to have a great career. Turns out I over-exaggerated the feeling on Fulmer. Averaging out a mash-up from five off-season lists (ESPN, BA, BP, MLB, John Sickels) Fulmer winds up as the 59th best prospect and 15th among RHPs and doesn't look like he'll be on Detroit's OD roster. In fact, he's not even the best Fulmer on the prospect lists. The un-related Carson Fulmer, a RHP for the ChiSox, is a couple of notches higher. It's actually the other pitcher we sent away in that deal, Luis Cessa who the Tigers wound up trading over the winter, who may wind up making the Yanx bullpen to begin the season.

Frayed Knot Apr 08 2016 11:42 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Finally someone focuses on what's truly important: listing the Top-100 prospects based on coolest names This is a list so cool that even former NYM draft pick Damien Magnifico doesn't even crack the top half!!

Frayed Knot Jul 03 2016 06:45 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

Amed Rosario porn

Edgy MD Jul 03 2016 07:33 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

As for his first name, Amed, as he told The News Press in Fort Myers, Fla., in May, Rosario said his father gave him that name because it came from an Iranian soap-opera character his father enjoyed watching. That was going to be my second guess.

Frayed Knot Jul 08 2016 04:44 PM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

As the team's one true "hot" prospect, this is quickly becoming the all-Amed Rosario thread. I was going to wait until he notched 100 ABs at Bingo before touting the fact that he's currently hitting .424 with a 1062 OPS since his June promotion to AA (59 ABs) which followed his .309/.359/.442 start at St Lucie. But between my own impatience and then seeing that BP just named him #15 on their mid-season Top-50 prospect rankings (taking out all those who graduated since the pre-season lists - BA named him #18 on their similar mid-season update) well, I didn't wait. From BP: #15 - Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets Why He’ll Succeed: Rosario keeps getting better, every season. His ability to put on good weight without sacrificing athleticism enables him to stick at the six and rake at the plate, making him a threat on both sides of the ball. Why He Might Fail: Still a work in progress, the approach and an unusual hand path could falter against better arms and better spin. If the bat doesn’t develop as anticipated, it is still a major-league package, but not an impact one. Unmentioned there is that he won't turn 21 until November.

Frayed Knot Jul 20 2016 03:47 AM Re: 2015-16 Prospect Season

John Sickels' Mid-Season Prospect Report Keep in mind that, as always, this is not a new or re-ordered list but merely last winter's list with updates on the half-season since. As expected the most glowing review is of Rosario: 3) Amed Rosario, SS, Grade B: Breakout; hitting combined .330/.377/.472 between High-A and Double-A, 14 steals, still just 20 years old; good defense, too; Mets version of Xander Bogaerts? Grade A- prospect at this point and maybe more.