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2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

Nymr83 Jan 05 2016 03:49 AM

batmags wrote: You know, the Mets went into a terrible, terrible tailspin following their '73 pennant winning season. The drop wasn't immediate but the you can argue that the bad seeds were sown around that time. I'm not saying that '73 is a perfect comp for 2015... The off-season is long, and I'd like to thank the team wearing the puke-colored jerseys for making it a little longer with their nausea inducing performance in Buffalo this past Sunday. Thought the above quote might be a fun topic and this forum could use one. How similar is the 1973 team to the 2015 one? is the failure of the former to sustain any level of success at all indicative of what we might expect now? discuss!

Nymr83 Jan 05 2016 03:58 AM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

moderator - fuck. please move this to baseball forum.

MFS62 Jan 05 2016 04:23 AM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

Since nobody has posted but you, why don't you just copy the thread (or cut and paste it) into the baseball forum? Then, delete the thread from this forum. I won't mind if this post goes bye bye when you do it. Later

cooby classic Jan 07 2016 04:38 PM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

This looks like an interesting topic. Was it reopened?

Benjamin Grimm Jan 07 2016 04:39 PM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

It was never closed.

MFS62 Jan 07 2016 08:49 PM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

Just moved. Later

Vic Sage Jan 07 2016 09:16 PM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels? Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jan 07 2016 09:17 PM

As i recall, the `73 team was a bad team that got hot at the end of the season to push their record up to .500, snuck into the playoffs and then their great pitching carried them to a 7th game. The `15 team was a .500 team that got hot at the end of the season to push their record up to 90 wins and win the division going away. Their great pitching wasn't enough to get them to a game 7. The `73 team was the last gasp of the `69 Championship team. It fell apart, in part, because M.Donald Grant didn't hold with this uppity, new-fangled "free agency" thing erupting on his plantation, and so traded away his best players, rather than paying them. The `15 team is the first gasp of a great new core, but is being abandoned by the Wilpons, who are unwilling or unable to pay the money necessary to surround this core with the kind of talent necessary to take the next step.

Ceetar Jan 07 2016 09:17 PM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

False Parallel.

batmagadanleadoff Jan 07 2016 11:30 PM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

Since one of my posts was the inspiration for this thread, I thought I'd chime in and explain some things. It wasn't my intent to draw deep parallels between the '15 and '73 squads. I merely used the '73 team to illustrate that staying pat just because you won last year's pennant is a terrible strategy. I used the '73 Mets as a reference point, not only because they lost in the WS as did last year's Mets, but because the Mets, going from '73 to '74, may have been the most stand pattenest team in franchise history. No new Met debuted in 1974 until Jack Aker in June of '74, about 35% or 40% into the season. Aker was once a terrific reliever but in '74, was at the end of his line, and in fact, would not pitch in the Majors after his Met stint. Two Mets debuted in August, about a month after the all star game -- the undistinguished Jerry Cram and rookie Benny Ayala. By then, the Mets were effectively if not mathematically, done. And then came several rookie call-ups when the roster expanded in September.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 08 2016 12:46 AM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

73 team was like the 15ers in that they had injuries that prevented them from being as competitive as they ought have been midseason, and played better when their guys came back. But there are probably a lot of clubs like that too. I guess the other parallel was playing in a winnable division year with no dominant team. No creampuffs a la 15 Phillies in 73 though. Also both clubs' strength was pitching but that's not especially unique.

Nymr83 Jan 08 2016 02:33 AM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

the good pitching in a winnable division comparison is probably accurate, and the '15 phillies probably partial explanation to why the '15 mets won 90 games, but the 15 club's strength was younger pitching under control for longer though. and i think the 73 team had nothing like d'Arnaud/Conforto as far as talented young position players either. for this reason the '15 team is in a better position to contend going forward even if they don't make key additions this offseason, where the '73 team was doomed if they didnt get better right away.

d'Kong76 Jan 08 2016 02:56 AM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

The original parallel I think I brought up on Christmas Eve. Many fans my age rode that 1973 team for over a decade. I don't want to do that the next five years. I know the pennant is cool, but it ain't gonna mean that much to me next fall if the Mets aren't in the playoffs. And from what it looks like, their plan is... they don't care so long as they can raise that flag for now and cash in some early season ticket sales.

Zvon Jan 08 2016 03:10 AM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

A few more similarities: We just came off a season where we had Rookie Of The Year pitchers, Matlack in 1973, deGrom in 2014. Both teams had great Aprils. A lot of injuries plagued the '73 Mets. Grote, Cleon, Harrelson, Milner & more. All for 30 days or more. I don't know if that equates with losing Wright & d'Arnaud for as long as they were out but it's a fact that when Jerry Grote returned to the lineup in '73 the entire team stepped it up a bit. Some say d'Arnaud's return (the 2nd coming) had a similar effect in 2015. And it was similar the way I sat in front of the TV in 1973 and 2015 right before game one and said "Holy shit, we are really in the World Series!" OE: about mid-season during both years I remember thinking, wow, we have a powerful rotation, maybe tops in the NL.

batmagadanleadoff Jan 08 2016 03:15 AM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

Nymr83 wrote: but the 15 club's strength was younger pitching under control for longer though. Under control? In '73, the reserve clause was still in effect, (albeit on its last legs). And there was, naturally, no free agency. Everybody was under control in '73. Forever. Baseball players in '73 had about as much freedom as slaves.

batmagadanleadoff Jan 08 2016 03:20 AM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

Zvon wrote: OE: about mid-season during both years I remember thinking, wow, we have a powerful rotation, maybe tops in the NL. Yeah. There were three outstanding starting pitching rotations in '73. The Dodgers had one of them. The WS champ A's had another one of them. And the Mets, who I thought, and still do, had the best rotation in all of baseball that year. Their bats may not have scared their opponents, but those Mets had the pitching equivalent of Bench, Rose and Morgan.

Nymr83 Jan 08 2016 03:21 AM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

you're right about the control as it looked then, I was thinking of when they all ultimately left

Zvon Jan 08 2016 03:24 AM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

batmagadanleadoff wrote: OE: about mid-season during both years I remember thinking, wow, we have a powerful rotation, maybe tops in the NL. Yeah. There were three outstanding starting pitching rotations in '73. The Dodgers had one of them. The WS champ A's had another one of them. And the Mets, who I thought, and still do, had the best rotation in all of baseball that year. Their bats may not have scared their opponents, but those Mets had the pitching equivalent of Bench, Rose and Morgan. And Perez if you want to count Stoney. Ya gotta count Stoney.

batmagadanleadoff Jan 08 2016 03:24 AM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

Nymr83 wrote: you're right about the control as it looked then, I was thinking of when they all ultimately left Well, the big three (Seaver, Kooz and Matlack) were all eventually traded. It'll probably happen to the majority of the current starting pitchers, too.

batmagadanleadoff Jan 08 2016 03:26 AM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

Zvon wrote: Zvon wrote: OE: about mid-season during both years I remember thinking, wow, we have a powerful rotation, maybe tops in the NL. Yeah. There were three outstanding starting pitching rotations in '73. The Dodgers had one of them. The WS champ A's had another one of them. And the Mets, who I thought, and still do, had the best rotation in all of baseball that year. Their bats may not have scared their opponents, but those Mets had the pitching equivalent of Bench, Rose and Morgan. And Perez if you want to count Stoney. Ya gotta count Stoney. I was counting Stoney. He was terrific and no doubt a big reason why the Mets staff was the best in '73. But I forgot about Perez and that's a good one. So yeah ... Bench, Rose, Morgan and Perez.

Nymr83 Jan 08 2016 06:16 AM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Nymr83 wrote: you're right about the control as it looked then, I was thinking of when they all ultimately left Well, the big three (Seaver, Kooz and Matlack) were all eventually traded. It'll probably happen to the majority of the current starting pitchers, too. Harvey probably gets dealt because of who his agent is, i don't fault the Mets for that, i'd deal any player who didn't want to sign before testing the market (a Boras staple). i suspect we keep deGrom and Syndergaard through their next big contract and then Wheeler &/or Matz depending on who get hurt and how they pitch.

batmagadanleadoff Jan 08 2016 12:43 PM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

Nymr83 wrote: Nymr83 wrote: you're right about the control as it looked then, I was thinking of when they all ultimately left Well, the big three (Seaver, Kooz and Matlack) were all eventually traded. It'll probably happen to the majority of the current starting pitchers, too. Harvey probably gets dealt because of who his agent is, i don't fault the Mets for that, i'd deal any player who didn't want to sign before testing the market (a Boras staple). i suspect we keep deGrom and Syndergaard through their next big contract and then Wheeler &/or Matz depending on who get hurt and how they pitch. That's gonna take a lot of money if these pitchers pan out.

RealityChuck Jan 08 2016 02:46 PM Re: 2015 & 1973 - Warning Signs or False Parallels?

The 73 team won on the fact that Wayne Garrett had a 1.015 OPS in September (lifetime .691). Rusty Staub and Cleon Jones also had great months. Given their pitching, that was all they needed. There was no way Garrett was going to repeat that in 1974 and Jones was on a downhill slide. Willie Mays was at the end of his career and would have retired if the team hadn't made him an offer he couldn't refuse, and as bad as Mays was, Don Hahn was even worse. Last year's team was far better offensively. Conforto will probably be a replacement of Cespedes and I would expect Lagares to bounce back after playing injured. Wright is on a downhill slide, but still better than Garrett in any month other than September 1973. So offensively things are better. Pitching wise, the starting pitching is comparable. There's no Seaver, but the rotation matches up well. Bullpens are hard to compare, since they're used differently (Tug McGraw had only 25 saves; he's comparable to Familia). We're probably a big weaker on infield defense (Harrelson and Millan). One interesting fact that in games where the big four starters pitched this year, the team was on a pace to win 92 games -- even before the late season trades. The offense took a hit, but even with Eric Campbell and John Mayberry, Jr., the team played well enough with the big four to compete. The offense now is better than it was on opening day, so the wins will come.