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Mid-Winter Temperature

I love it!

0 votes

I like it.

3 votes

I am neutral.

10 votes

I dislike it.

8 votes

I hate it!

2 votes

Centerfield Jan 05 2016 03:58 PM

We've done the individual transactions. What are your feelings about the off-season moves as a whole? This poll assumes no further significant moves are made. We can re-assess at the end of the winter, especially if they still have a big move in them.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 05 2016 04:12 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

I went with neutral. I wish they had done more, but it may turn out that what they've done is sufficient to win a championship. Time will tell. I don't think they'll be a raging hot as they were in August and into September, but if they're not as stone cold as they were in June and much of July, it could balance out. The Mets hit 177 homers in 2015. If they can get roughly the same number in 2016, but more evenly spread out over the six months of the season, and the starters stay (mostly) healthy, then things can turn out okay. I don't worry about what the Chicago Cubs have done. The Mets will only play them six or seven times in the regular season, and perhaps not at all in the postseason. And even if they do meet in the NLDS or NLCS, I still think the Mets can beat them in a best-of-five or best-of-seven series. It will depend on the pitching.

seawolf17 Jan 05 2016 04:17 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

I'm decidedly neutral. And waiting for more.

Nymr83 Jan 05 2016 04:18 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

neutral, but really need more info

dinosaur jesus Jan 05 2016 04:22 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

I'm bullish. This is probably a minority opinion here, but I really like the Staub-for-Lolich trade. As great as the Mets pitching has been, they've always missed that strong fourth starter. Lolich may be fat and old, but he was never exactly a track star. At worst, he fills that spot capably until the kids--Swan, Espinosa, and my guy Jackson Todd--get up to speed. Sure, I'll miss Rusty. But when you've got Dave Kingman, John Milner, Bruce Boisclair, Mike Vail, Del Unser, and Billy Baldwin manning your outfield, with Lee Mazzilli and Leo Foster knocking at the door, I think those big shoes will be filled and then some. It's an embarrassment of riches, really.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 05 2016 04:26 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

Is it really January 1976? I'm confused. If I'm twelve years old, why do I see grey hairs in my beard when I look in the mirror?

dinosaur jesus Jan 05 2016 04:31 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Is it really January 1976? I'm confused. If I'm twelve years old, why do I see grey hairs in my beard when I look in the mirror? Tell me about it. As long as there's baseball, though, I'll always be twelve years old at heart.

d'Kong76 Jan 05 2016 04:39 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

I took neutral but easily could have clicked dislike. I haven't shaved for a few days so put me in the grey camp too.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 05 2016 04:49 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

I'm giving it qualified approval: As LWFS said, the floor was raised and that ought not to be overlooked. Was hoping they'd trade Hovvey in a Blockbuster bringing back a young hitter at CF or SS; instead they Moneyballed the whole thing and I think if it works it's clever. Benefit of that is they leave open the possibility to deal Hovvey in a Super Blockbuster this summer. A little disappointed also that the ways they improved don;t appear to dramatically improve them where they needed to improve defensively. It may not be better at all in fact and so that's a worry. Still think they oughta convince Byrd to take a reserve OF/1B role. I'd really like that.

Centerfield Jan 05 2016 04:56 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

To no one's surprise, I went with dislike. Only the Walker trade and the fact that we have not signed any bad, crippling contracts keeps me from clicking "hate". If the Mets had done nothing but return the October team, I think we would be looking at a 100+ win juggernaut. Instead, we have a team that can win 90 games and the division, but with very little margin of error. But I get it. Doing that would have cost money. And the Wilpons don't have any. But even if they didn't have the capability to increase payroll, even the resources that we have could have been re-allocated to bring in more impact players. You just have to be able to sign multi-year deals. And some players are worth the risk. I'm trying to separate out the absolute venom I feel toward the owners. I'm trying to not let the fact that we likely won't operate as a big market team for years to come color my assessment of the off-season, but even that aside, I think this off-season is a major disappointment. The only saving grace is that it's only January 5. And there is still time to do something. However unlikely as it may be.

TransMonk Jan 05 2016 05:00 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

I'm in the dislike club, but only slightly away from neutral. I would be more neutral until I look at what the Cubs have done. THAT looks like a team playoff team which has made strides to put themselves over the top. I'm not saying the Cubs model will work (not saying the Mets model won't, either), but Chicago gets the "A" for effort.

batmagadanleadoff Jan 05 2016 05:01 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I don't worry about what the Chicago Cubs have done. The Mets will only play them six or seven times in the regular season, and perhaps not at all in the postseason. And even if they do meet in the NLDS or NLCS, I still think the Mets can beat them in a best-of-five or best-of-seven series. It will depend on the pitching. I strongly agree with this part. If the Mets can get into the post-season beyond that one and done game, I think they're as good a bet as any other team to go all the way given their unbelievable starting pitching depth. The issue, to me, is whether they can get into the playoffs to begin with. I'm somewhat disappointed by the Mets off-season but not even remotely surprised at the kinds of moves the Met did and didn't make. I totally expected it, as well as all the double talk and bullshitting that went with it ---a new Mets tradition--- like that they're ready to increase the payroll but, you know, they didn't because there's no one out there worth spending money on. I like how the front office and its defenders shitcanned Cespedes this off-season because he's not as good as, I dunno, peak Barry Bonds. And he might be older than he claims to be. All the while missing the irony that if Cespedes was certifiably younger, and as good as the front office implies he ought to be to be worth pursuing, he'd be even that much more unattainable and that much more beyond the Mets puny budget. And it'd be even less likely that the Mets'd re-sign him.

d'Kong76 Jan 05 2016 05:06 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

TransMonk wrote: I look at what the Cubs have done. THAT looks like a team playoff team which has made strides to put themselves over the top. I can't help but keep circling back to this point.

Ceetar Jan 05 2016 05:08 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

like. I think fans are under-selling the improvement inherent in the middle infield defense. they're minor upgrades offensively, though still upgrades, which is where the bigger holes were, but defense was iffy too and this is a valuable upgrade.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 05 2016 05:12 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

Thing is, I'm not sure how great an improvement there really was to the D. Let's be charitable and say it went from "Sucky" to "Less Sucky." I was hoping for "weakness" to "strength."

Ceetar Jan 05 2016 05:16 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Thing is, I'm not sure how great an improvement there really was to the D. Let's be charitable and say it went from "Sucky" to "Less Sucky." I was hoping for "weakness" to "strength." That applies to SS but Walker is better than Murphy and probably at least "okay" at second. Two marginal increases combine to be fairly significant, and couple that with the talented pitching staff that already minimizes balls in play and it becomes significant.

Frayed Knot Jan 05 2016 05:21 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

Centerfield wrote: If the Mets had done nothing but return the October team, I think we would be looking at a 100+ win juggernaut. Instead, we have a team that can win 90 games and the division, but with very little margin of error. Let's assume for the moment that Walker for Murph was essentially a neutral swap and take the pessimistic view that the additions of deAza + Cabrera add nothing that you wouldn't get from Kirk and/or Kelly Johnson; the only real loss from October '15 is Cespedes to whom you're assigning a 10+ win gap. That's not very likely under the best of circumstances.

Centerfield Jan 05 2016 06:00 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

Frayed Knot wrote: Centerfield wrote: If the Mets had done nothing but return the October team, I think we would be looking at a 100+ win juggernaut. Instead, we have a team that can win 90 games and the division, but with very little margin of error. Let's assume for the moment that Walker for Murph was essentially a neutral swap and take the pessimistic view that the additions of deAza + Cabrera add nothing that you wouldn't get from Kirk and/or Kelly Johnson; the only real loss from October '15 is Cespedes to whom you're assigning a 10+ win gap. That's not very likely under the best of circumstances. That does seem like a lot. For what it's worth, it's not Walker for Murph. The net there is Walker for Niese and Murph, essentially. We've also lost Clippard, though I guess Blevins offsets that a bit. But you're right, the net loss of Cespedes is probably not close to 10 games. Maybe it would have been 95 wins then. But I tell you, come September, we are going to want those 5 wins.

Ceetar Jan 05 2016 06:09 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

Centerfield wrote: But I tell you, come September, we are going to want those 5 wins. Cespedes, in by far his best year, produced 6.7 fWAR. he's projected for half that. Even if you split the difference to get your 5 wins, that's above replacement level, something that probably won't be what the Mets produce in the outfield. Hell De Aza's probably good for about 2 if you just gave him the whole season. Adding Cespedes to the current mix of outfielders definitely improves them, but it's nowhere near 5 wins.

Centerfield Jan 05 2016 06:22 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Thing is, I'm not sure how great an improvement there really was to the D. Let's be charitable and say it went from "Sucky" to "Less Sucky." I was hoping for "weakness" to "strength." That's kind of where I am with the offense. I feel like we replaced out the Campbells and Mayberrys with guys who are less sucky. And that's ok I guess. But I was hoping for "awesome".

Centerfield Jan 05 2016 06:28 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

Ceetar wrote: Centerfield wrote: But I tell you, come September, we are going to want those 5 wins. Cespedes, in by far his best year, produced 6.7 fWAR. he's projected for half that. Even if you split the difference to get your 5 wins, that's above replacement level, something that probably won't be what the Mets produce in the outfield. Hell De Aza's probably good for about 2 if you just gave him the whole season. Adding Cespedes to the current mix of outfielders definitely improves them, but it's nowhere near 5 wins. That's a fair point. I'm not convinced that WAR (I don't know what fWAR is) translates win for win like that. I feel like impact players make more of a difference than what their WAR may indicate. (Familia had a WAR of 2.7. I don't believe we win 87.3 games without him). But I have no way of proving this. My post was based on the objective stat "gut feel". And dammit if that second half team didn't feel like it could win 120.

d'Kong76 Jan 05 2016 06:30 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

I appreciate everyone's knowledge and interest in all things stats wise but I really have problems with people thinking that using such measurements they can within a game or two predict what adding one player or subtracting another will produce win's wise. It's still a game, balls go through legs and stuff. If it wasn't, they can just run the season on a super-computer and why waste three hours every night watching the game?

Frayed Knot Jan 05 2016 07:19 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

WAR is an estimate. No one is claiming that it's an absolute predictor or a sub for the games themselves (and if someone does then please pick up the nearest blunt object and drop it on his head). As to the notion of winning 87.3 games without Familia, remember that you're not measuring (estimating really) the team suddenly minus Jeurys, it's estimating the gap between what he gives you over and above what you'd get from a run of the mill replacement for him. Said replacement likely gives up more runs and hits - and exactly when and how those runs show up (Kase's point) will of course matter, maybe most especially with a closer. But since you can't predict when and how (maybe the replacement gives up more runs but only when we're leading by even more and so he never blows a game) you take historical standards of how many extra runs scored/prevented relate to how many extra wins over the long haul. So while WAR doesn't prove anything, it can act as a pretty good counter to a fan's dream that adding Player X "would be worth 15 wins to us next year!!!!" Cuz even if Mr. X is Babe Ruth come back to life, that's probably more than a bit of wishful thinking. And, yeah, that second half did feel like a 120 win team. But that doesn't mean that simply assembling the same crew again would mean they'd win at the same rate.

Vic Sage Jan 05 2016 07:20 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

dislike. I think Cabrera is actually a step down offensively from Flores at this point based on their respective career trajectories, and Cabrera's defensive edge seems slight, based on Flores' second half defensive improvement. Sure, Walker is a defensive upgrade at 2b, but not a huge one, given his limited range. And offensively, they're practically a wash (Walker with more SLG and Murphy more OB). Then throw in the $6m for DeAza, $7.25m for Colon and $4m for Blevins and one has to wonder whether a significant chunk of the money we're spending for all these guys couldn't have been put to better use by acquiring an impact hitter, given our incredibly limited resources, and using younger and cheaper players to fill those backup positions. For example, i'd rather have gone into the season with Flores and Herrera up the middle (or Tejada/Flores), Niese as the 5th starter and Heyward in CF rather than what we've ended up with. In other words, the Mets have spent over $25m for next season (while dumping Niese's $10m contract), and we've picked up a situational LHRP, a 5th starter (until Wheeler comes back; then Colon is a long man), a 4th OFer (who'll get starter's minutes because Lagares sucks), and a mediocre DP combo that isn't significantly better than what we already had last year. And the only other move they are likely to move is to pick up a RH OFer/1bman for depth, like Pearce or Raburn. The only thing that is keeping me from "hate" is that there's still time to fix this... not that i expect them, too, but i can wait.

Ceetar Jan 05 2016 07:27 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

d'Kong76 wrote: I appreciate everyone's knowledge and interest in all things stats wise but I really have problems with people thinking that using such measurements they can within a game or two predict what adding one player or subtracting another will produce win's wise. It's still a game, balls go through legs and stuff. If it wasn't, they can just run the season on a super-computer and why waste three hours every night watching the game? it's all probabilities and likely outcomes. I can run numbers and tell you that the odds of pulling three straight Jacks from a random draw from a deck is .02% but that doesn't mean it doesn't happen or that the time it actually happens isn't any less fun to watch. WAR (fWAR being Fangraphs specific implementation of the idea) is generally an estimate of how much value a player added more than a predictive tool. If you played out 2015 10,000 times Cespedes' contributions would be worth 6.7 wins. The variation comes from all the stuff he can't control. Who gets on in front of him, what pitchers he gets to face, etc. To go a little more granule with it, think about a Home Run. Great feat. great value. lots of fun. It can be worth 1-4 runs to the team due to factors pretty much entirely out of the actual batters control. If you add up every run scored ever and divide by every home run, you get something like 1.9 runs. So that's how much you get credit for in the WAR formula. Sometimes it's more, sometimes it's less. But that all depends on something outside the hitters control. You don't really know who's going to be on base when a hitter comes up, so you estimate the value of a home run and figure it all balances in the end. Some will be 1 runs, some 4, and over all it'll be roughly the 1.9.

d'Kong76 Jan 05 2016 07:44 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

Thanks, and really I understand more about all that than it might seem. I was reacting to something up there where you said Cespedes improves the the team, but then go on say but not by how many. There is a bit of voodoo to it all in addition to probability and three jacks at a sit down card game. Everyone who ran numbers and came up with win totals for the Nationals in 2015 and were within a win or two please report to Window 3 for your prize.

Ceetar Jan 05 2016 07:51 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

d'Kong76 wrote: I was reacting to something up there where you said Cespedes improves the the team, but then go on say but not by how many. There is a bit of voodoo to it all in addition to probability and three jacks at a sit down card game. . Well, it's complicated for all those reasons. For one, I think Cespedes comes down closer to a 4 win player next year. And who would he be replacing? Are we just handing him Center Field and rolling with it? Lagares was worth only 1 win last year, though it wasn't a full season for him. 435 PA, which is like..75%? so maybe he gets up to 1.5 wins and suddenly we're talking like 2.5 wins different. That's fine and all, but I'm not sure I want to pay $20+ million for that in Cespedes who's not really a center fielder, particularly long term, and that's betting on no improvement from Lagares or other replacement. It's difficult to predict and plan. The Mets may not have as many jacks in the deck, but at least they pulled out most of the jokers.

d'Kong76 Jan 05 2016 08:00 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

Ceetar wrote: I'm not sure I want to pay $20+ million for that in Cespedes who's not really a center fielder Well apparently no one does so far... and that might be a good thing.

Ceetar Jan 05 2016 08:07 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

d'Kong76 wrote: Ceetar wrote: I'm not sure I want to pay $20+ million for that in Cespedes who's not really a center fielder Well apparently no one does so far... and that might be a good thing. That's true, but some team could get crazy/desperate still. We've got 45 days or so left. Be interesting to see where he ends up, money wise.

Lefty Specialist Jan 05 2016 08:28 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

Neutral. I don't think they're done yet. They haven't done anything mindbogglingly stupid which, for an team that has Jeff Wilpon in its org chart, is a bonus.

Zvon Jan 05 2016 08:50 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

Dislike but leaning heavily to neutral. Because I believe Sandy is trying his hardest within his limits and the team could surprise me. Unfortunately, I'm not feeling it. Maybe when I see em play in spring I'll start feeling positive about what we have. Maybe these guys will jell. Personally I think this offseason (so far) leaves us a bit short as to what we really needed. How many games did we win because of Cespedes contributions in the short time he was here? What's the actual number? You might be surprised. And that's not some hokey pokey projection. Them's the facts.

Ceetar Jan 05 2016 08:53 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

Zvon wrote: Dislike but leaning heavily to neutral. Because I believe Sandy is trying his hardest within his limits and the team could surprise me. Unfortunately, I'm not feeling it. Maybe when I see em play in spring I'll start feeling positive about what we have. Maybe these guys will jell. Personally I think this offseason (so far) leaves us a bit short as to what we really needed. How many games did we win because of Cespedes contributions in the short time he was here? What's the actual number? You might be surprised. And that's not some hokey pokey projection. Them's the facts. Do you know that Uribe or Johnson or Lagares wouldn't have gotten a big hit on those spots if Cespedes didn't bat? We won the division by 7 games, we would've gotten there without him.

d'Kong76 Jan 05 2016 09:18 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

How do you know Poland isn't about to invade Spain? C'mon!!

Ceetar Jan 05 2016 09:19 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

d'Kong76 wrote: How do you know Poland isn't about to invade Spain? C'mon!! German government just banned Milk Stout so there are troubles closer to home.

Zvon Jan 05 2016 10:41 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

Ceetar wrote: Zvon wrote: Dislike but leaning heavily to neutral. Because I believe Sandy is trying his hardest within his limits and the team could surprise me. Unfortunately, I'm not feeling it. Maybe when I see em play in spring I'll start feeling positive about what we have. Maybe these guys will jell. Personally I think this offseason (so far) leaves us a bit short as to what we really needed. How many games did we win because of Cespedes contributions in the short time he was here? What's the actual number? You might be surprised. And that's not some hokey pokey projection. Them's the facts. Do you know that Uribe or Johnson or Lagares wouldn't have gotten a big hit on those spots if Cespedes didn't bat? We won the division by 7 games, we would've gotten there without him. I'd rather just stick to what happened. And I'm not knocking Uribe, Johnson, or Laggy. They actually did spray a few big hits in crucial situations.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 06 2016 05:20 AM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

Mild dislike. The resource allocation hasn't been flawed in conception, if not exactly what I'd have done with that shopping money. That they've spent on the targets on whom they settled-- Cabrera and de Aza, mostly- has been problematic. As it stands now, the floor is better than early last season... but it's not where it was late last season, and the ceiling is lower. It leaves one feeling cramped and tense, and waiting for more renovation. If these are the strengths we're making, then, cool, mini-splash the pot some more, and buy the hell out of some platoon bench depth/underrated relief options, and let's go Rays. I don't think they're done, but I worry they won't go beyond half-measures.

themetfairy Jan 06 2016 01:52 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

I chose neutral. We haven't even hit the Baseball Equinox yet (as calculated by G-Fafif, that will occur on January 17th this year). I'm reserving judgment for the moment.

dgwphotography Jan 06 2016 02:28 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

Hate. I'll be shocked if this isn't the team that goes to spring training.

Centerfield Jan 06 2016 02:33 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

themetfairy wrote: I chose neutral. We haven't even hit the Baseball Equinox yet (as calculated by G-Fafif, that will occur on January 17th this year). I'm reserving judgment for the moment. You know, I would have sworn we were past the halfway point. I think metfairy is saying I'm guilty of premature evaluation. I hate when that happens.* *In my defense, this type of thing happens to 50% of men over 40. So the woman in the football jersey says.

Ceetar Jan 06 2016 02:37 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

Centerfield wrote: themetfairy wrote: I chose neutral. We haven't even hit the Baseball Equinox yet (as calculated by G-Fafif, that will occur on January 17th this year). I'm reserving judgment for the moment. You know, I would have sworn we were past the halfway point. I think metfairy is saying I'm guilty of premature evaluation. I hate when that happens.* *In my defense, this type of thing happens to 50% of men over 40. So the woman in the football jersey says. That's because we typically are by this point, but the offseason is roughly 30 days shorter this year.

themetfairy Jan 06 2016 02:47 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

Ceetar wrote: Centerfield wrote: themetfairy wrote: I chose neutral. We haven't even hit the Baseball Equinox yet (as calculated by G-Fafif, that will occur on January 17th this year). I'm reserving judgment for the moment. You know, I would have sworn we were past the halfway point. I think metfairy is saying I'm guilty of premature evaluation. I hate when that happens.* *In my defense, this type of thing happens to 50% of men over 40. So the woman in the football jersey says. That's because we typically are by this point, but the offseason is roughly 30 days shorter this year. Yes. It's like the High Holidays. In our household, you know they're early when Rosh Hashana is near my daughter's birthday and they're late when Yom Kippor is near mine. As for the Baseball Equinox, it's early when it comes near G-Fafif's birthday, and it's late when it's near D-Dad's. With the season ending for us on November 1st, this is the latest Baseball Equinox that we have ever had.

Ceetar Jan 06 2016 03:03 PM Re: Mid-Winter Temperature

themetfairy wrote: With the season ending for us on November 1st, this is the latest Baseball Equinox that we have ever had. It's actually closer than I thought. 154 days of offseason this year. was 159days 2000-2001 and 162days 1999-2000