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Johnny Dickshot
Feb 12 2006 05:10 PM

Interesting peice on Soler in today's News.

] New York Daily News - http://www.nydailynews.com
Lots of heart & Soler
By CHRISTIAN RED
DAILY NEWS SPORTS WRITER
Sunday, February 12th, 2006

CARROLLTON, Va. - Sixty feet from Alay Soler's back doorstep - six inches shy of the distance from which he usually hurls his mid-90s fastball - the 26-year-old Cuban-born pitcher walks down a private wooden dock to his elevated 27-foot power boat. The James River ripples below Soler's feet, brushing against the sand and rocks surrounding his back yard. A brand new silver Chevrolet Avalanche pickup with black trim sits in the driveway. A white picket fence separates the front property line from winding Rainbow Road.

Inside Soler's brick two-story home, his wife Ana Laura sits in a comfy leather sofa and looks out at her husband tinkering on the boat in the chilly February afternoon. Marc Anthony is playing on a sleek audio system. The couple's 23-month-old son Alain is fast asleep upstairs.

The perfect American Dream in every sense.

But flash back to 12 days ago and things were not as peaceful or certain.

Alay had still never laid eyes on his son. He had not held his wife in two years.

Then Ana Laura arrived from Cuba at Newport News/Williamsburg (Va.) Airport.

"It was very early morning when I left my home. The baby was asleep in my arms," Ana Laura says in Spanish, as a sudden burst of emotion catches her by surprise. "I had talked to Alay before and he said to me, 'Don't ever look back. Only look forward.' It's a still a dream."

Little Alain knew his dad only from photos and videos, but immediately shouted, "Papa" and ran toward the 6-2 Soler at the airport terminal.

"Imagine it," Soler says in Spanish when asked to recount the scene. "Just imagine it."

The entire Soler story is hard to imagine sometimes. Since November 2003, when he defected from Cuba to the Dominican Republic in a harrowing boat ride, Soler has been extorted by a sports agent, was nearly stranded in the D.R. with a faulty passport and later signed a three-year, $2.8 million deal with the Mets during the summer of 2004. But last October, Soler was still living in Santo Domingo, wondering if he would ever get to touch U.S. soil.

"I didn't hear from him for 48 hours. I was very scared," Ana Laura says. "Till finally he called me when he was in the Dominican. But those two days were very scary."

As dangerous as the experience was, Soler is reluctant to discuss his defection. "I never focus on the past. Live for now," Soler says, while driving across the James River and glancing out at the vast expanse. "There's no other way."

It is 10:30 a.m. at Newport News' Babies "R" Us store and the burly, 250-pound Soler - a possible starter in the Mets' rotation this season - is comparing a Tumble Time Tigger to a "Shout" Elmo doll.

"Te gusta? Te gusta, Papi?" Soler asks, holding up both toys before his son who is chilling in a stroller. Soler eventually opts for the Elmo and tosses it into a massive shopping cart.

"He wants everything," Ana Laura says of Alain.

The Solers appear to buy almost everything, as the cash register rings up $450 in purchases - everything from infant shirts and pants to formula bottles, a rocking horse, a blanket and a battery-operated frog that speaks English and Spanish.

"No more Babies 'R' Us," Soler sighs as the couple loads up their truck.

"The guy has the biggest heart. Alay is like a brother to me," says Joe Rosario, Soler's agent. "There's just a lot of bad people in the world and unfortunately Alay got stuck with one of those people."

There is strong evidence that Soler's escape from his homeland was facilitated by Joe Cubas, a Cuban-American agent who has represented other defectors such as Orlando (El Duque) Hernandez. Cubas was Soler's agent when Soler arrived in the D.R., and later when Soler inked the Mets' deal. And that's when the partnership soured. Cubas asked for a 15% take - exorbitant by MLB standards since most agents get 5% - and then withheld Soler's passport when the righthander balked at the demand.

Soler reported Cubas to the MLB Players Association, who in turn barred Cubas from ever representing its members again. A union investigation also revealed that the Dominican passport Cubas had provided for Soler was faulty.

"It turns out that the passport in question was not up to snuff anyway, but that's not the issue here," union chief operating officer Gene Orza told The Daily News last August. "The issue is you have an agent withholding a passport from a player and that is unacceptable."

Rosario learned of Soler's dilemma and rushed to his aid. By October, Soler had a valid passport, a work visa to enter the United States with and was allowed to bring his family into the U.S., as well. In late October, Soler went to New York for a physical and Rosario accompanied his client. The pair made sure to squeeze in a visit to Shea.

"He stood on the mound and looked all around," says Rosario. "Then he said it was too damn cold and that we should go."

Soler may be back in chilly Flushing before long. The righty, who has an uncanny resemblance to his "idol" Roger Clemens, tore up the recent Puerto Rican winter league when he pitched for Ponce. He was 3-2 with a 2.37 ERA and 25 strikeouts through eight games. He was 2-1 in the postseason. He will be at the Mets' spring training camp this week to compete for a rotation spot.

"It would be amazing if he didn't make the team," Rosario says.

Soler has three types of sliders, a sinker, changeup and of course the "reta," or fastball. A visitor offers to catch one of the fastballs with a regular glove and Rosario laughs. "You kidding? Ninety-six, bro. That thing will break your hand."

The visitor settles for a catch and even Ana Laura joins in. Alay compliments his wife's arm and the two laugh when one throw nearly ends up in the James River. Ana Laura then runs inside to check on the baby, who has been asleep for nearly two hours.

"I want to build a pool here," Soler says, stretching his hand across the backyard. "And a batting cage over there. A gymnasium near the driveway. It's peaceful here. Very peaceful."

Zvon
Feb 12 2006 06:55 PM

wow.
great article JD.
Cuzza the snow i didnt get the papers today.

Very interesting.
I hope the kid gets his chance.

metirish
Feb 12 2006 07:30 PM

Makes me hope this guy makes it big, good luck to him.

sharpie
Feb 13 2006 09:14 AM

Give us some of that Soler Power.

Yancy Street Gang
Feb 13 2006 09:23 AM

The Mets are due for a Rookie of the Year. It would be great if Soler was at least a legitimate candidate this year.

So what's the deal on the three-year contract he signed in 2003? Is the clock just starting, or is it about to run out? I don't think I've seen anything about that.

Elster88
Feb 13 2006 09:24 AM

]Soler Power


I like it.

Edgy DC
Feb 13 2006 09:31 AM

I think the original deal was voided and he signed a new one when he finally got his visa sorted out.

Rotblatt
Feb 13 2006 09:37 AM

I'm glad it worked out for him--what a nightmare . . .

I hope he really does throw 96 mph, although I had heard low nineties . . . And three different types of sliders should be fun too.

IMO, best-case scenario would be Soler winning a spot and Zambrano going to the pen as our long man.

Yancy Street Gang
Feb 13 2006 09:42 AM

Why is that better than Zambrano pitching great and Soler as the long man? Is it because we're all predisposed to dislike Zambrano?

seawolf17
Feb 13 2006 09:47 AM

Am I the only person who actually likes Zambrano?

MFS62
Feb 13 2006 09:56 AM

seawolf17 wrote:
Am I the only person who actually likes Zambrano?

Probably.
And that includes members of his immediate family.
Not his fault. Sadly, its not because of who/ what he is, but because of who/ what he isn't.

Later

Yancy Street Gang
Feb 13 2006 09:57 AM

I'd love to see Zambrano win a couple of Cy Youngs for the Mets. I think he's been unfairly hated for his part in a trade that he didn't make. The best-case scenario is him becoming as good as the Mets hoped he'd be.

Nymr83
Feb 13 2006 10:30 AM

the thing is that Zambrano has already shown that he can't be more thana league average pitcher, and he's usually less than that. i'd rather see if Soler can be better and give him a crack at the rotation.

Edgy DC
Feb 13 2006 10:35 AM

Though I certainly want more from him, I disagree that he's usually less than a league average pitcher,

Yancy Street Gang
Feb 13 2006 10:35 AM

I'm all for giving the best guy the spot in the rotation. It would be great if both Soler and Zambrano thrived; we'll very likely need replacements for Glavine and Trachsel for 2007.

Rotblatt
Feb 13 2006 01:13 PM

Well, ERA+-wise, Zambrano's pretty much the definition of an average pitcher--ERA+ of 101 over 5 seasons and almost 700 innings. And his other peripherals, at least aside from HR/9, are average at best as well. He did post a much better BB/9 last year, but his K/9 decreased, and for someone with great stuff, he was pretty hittable--people batted .264 off of him. Maybe that's a fluke--I certainly remember a lot of seeing-eye singles off Zambrano--but it kind of seems to me like he's toned down his stuff to harnass his control, and as a result, he's become more hittable.

At any rate, I think he's pretty much just average--neither below nor above. Which is fairly useful to have, really--they make okay #4 & good #5 guys. It's just that, like Nymr, I'd rather take a shot with an unknown with upside, especially if he pitches well in ST.

Plus, Zambrano was very successful as a reliever in 2001 & in his 5 innings last year. Of course, in 2002, he was terrible as a reliever, but I'm a glass-half-full type . . .

Edgy DC
Feb 13 2006 01:25 PM

Well, 101 is certainly not "usually below average." But, more importantly, pitching at a league average ERA should not get somebody tagged as even average. I think we misread ERA+ to concude that, because that figure is arrived at by a vastly disporporttionate number of innings going to the best pitchers, making a pitcher with a league-average ERA over 166 innings, not an average pitcher, but a rarer and dearer thing, if not terribly remarkable.

Rotblatt
Feb 13 2006 02:51 PM

I think it probably makes sense to call someone pitching at league average, "average." Of course, if that someone also has a WHIP, BB rate & HR rate significantly below average and a K rate significantly above average, I'd argue that he's much better than average, just really, really unlucky. In this specific case, though, Zambrano doesn't really have any mitigating circumstances.

I suppose we could start a grassroots movement to get people to refer to players as being above or below the median, thus elevating the term "average," but that sounds like kind of an uphill battle . . .

Of course, VORP is already widely used and it more or less does measure people against the median. In a pitcher's case, they figure a replacement pitcher would allow 1 additional run per every nine innings from the average player, making Zambrano's contribution worth 18.5 runs--13th best on our team overall and 7th best among our pitchers.

As you say, Edgy, unremarkable, but certainly useful.

Nymr83
Feb 13 2006 06:01 PM

the problem with VORP in evaluating players is that it tells you their contribution in the time they played, not in the time they SHOULD play based on their talent. for pitchers i'd like to see a park-adjusted OPS allowed, but i can't find it anywhere, ERA+ is a useful enough tool in comparing guys even if you want to fight over where average is.

Johnny Dickshot
Feb 13 2006 06:59 PM

]he problem with VORP in evaluating players is that it tells you their contribution in the time they played, not in the time they SHOULD play based on their talent.


That's interesting. But isn't getting into that gooey area called "talent" stand to be to Zambrano's great advantage?

His results may be average or slightly above ... but just about everyone except the first seven batters in that Brewers game last August would respect his "talent" -- his combo of pitches, speed, movement... his "stuff" if you will. I'm sure Omar & Willie would tell you they're more motivated by Zambrano's talent than his ERA+ or VORP. Not saying that's a good idea.

Edgy DC
Feb 13 2006 07:34 PM

Mlb.com, and I imagine other sources, can give you everybody's OBP yielded and Slugging yielded, and therefore their OPS yielded. You can take that and factor in the batters' park factor from baseball-reference.com.

Nymr83
Feb 13 2006 10:27 PM

Johnny Dickshot wrote:
]he problem with VORP in evaluating players is that it tells you their contribution in the time they played, not in the time they SHOULD play based on their talent.


That's interesting. But isn't getting into that gooey area called "talent" stand to be to Zambrano's great advantage?

His results may be average or slightly above ... but just about everyone except the first seven batters in that Brewers game last August would respect his "talent" -- his combo of pitches, speed, movement... his "stuff" if you will. I'm sure Omar & Willie would tell you they're more motivated by Zambrano's talent than his ERA+ or VORP. Not saying that's a good idea.



ok i definetaly put that wrong, what i meant was their results independent of the playing time that some manager did or did not give to them.