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Ranking Prospects

Frayed Knot
Feb 21 2006 01:56 PM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Feb 21 2006 02:47 PM

It's that time of year again and, quite conveniently seeing as how the topic of how prospects are judged came up in some thread the other day, there's a good piece in Baseball Prospectus on [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4781]what goes into prospect evaluation[/url] (at least from their viewpoint).


BP, btw, released their [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4774]top 50 list[/url] a few days ago:
10 - Alex Gordon; 3B Royals
9 - Prince Fielder; 1B Brewers
8 - Chris Young; OF D'Backs
7 - Andy Marte; 3B Braves ... I mean Red sox ... errr make that Indians
6 - Brandon Wood; SS Angels
5 - Howie Kendrick; 2B Angels
4 - Francisco Liriano; LHP Twins
3 - Ryan Zimmerman; 3B Nationals
2 - Jeremy Hermidia; OF Marlins
1 - Delmon Young; OF Devil Dogs


Met related: Milledge #13 (#19 on same list last year)
Yusmeiro Petit = #33
Justin Huber = #34
Mike Jacobs = #42


Pelfrey was the only other Met I thought had even a possiblity of sneaking onto their list if only as a token to his promise since obviously there's no prof track record to go by. But he's nowhere to be found even in their dozen or so honorable mentions although they do manage to sneak last year's #1 pick Justin Upton onto the list (#41) despite the fact that he is a high-schooler who didn't sign any earlier than Pelfrey. BP is traditionally very cautious with hyping pitching prospects which perhaps explains their thinking there.

Yancy Street Gang
Feb 21 2006 02:11 PM

How old is Prince Fielder? It seems like I've been hearing about him forever.

Frayed Knot
Feb 21 2006 02:17 PM

22 in May -- picked in the June '02 draft out of HS

He got more pub earlier in his minor league career than most because of his daddy. Also helps when writers remember you from the time you were hitting BP HRs out of Tiger stadium at age 13.

Elster88
Feb 21 2006 02:35 PM

Frayed Knot wrote:
hitting BP HRs out of Tiger stadium at age 13.


Damn.

Frayed Knot
Feb 23 2006 10:04 AM

Baseball America's list is out;
[url=http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/060222top100b.html]51-100[/url]
[url=http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/060223top100c.html]1-50[/url]
and Milledge gets some top-10 love:

#9 - Lastings Milledge, OF Mets (#11 last year)
"He's going to be an all-star caliber player. You hit home runs with a quick bat, which he's got, and down the road he could steal 35 to 40 bases." -- anonymous scout
ETA 2006


10 - Matt Cain, RHP Giants
9 - Milledge
8 - Justin Verlander, RHP Tigers
7 - Chad Billingsley, RHP Dodgers
6 - Francisco Liriano, LHP Twins
5 - Stephen Drew, SS D'Backs
4 - Jeremy Hemidia, OF Marlins
3 - Brandon Wood, SS Angels
2 - Justin Upton, SS D'Backs
1 - Delmon Young, OF D-Rays


Putting Upton - a high-schooler who signed late and has yet to play as a pro - reflects BA's penchant for believing in a player's "tools" even prior to performance.
Consequently they also rank Pelfrey
#36 -- "He's one of the few guys in the aluminum-bat era who gets people out with his fastball. Ben Sheets is another guy who could do that."
-- Former Mets scouting director Russ Bove

ETA: 2007

No other Mets crack the top-100
Y. Petit = #69
J. Huber = #84


There'll be a 2PM live on-line chat at their site for those with questions/complaints

Yancy Street Gang
Feb 23 2006 10:10 AM

Milledge is ETA for 2006, huh?

I think 2007 is more likely, unless he's traded, which I hope is unlikely.

I read that the Mets plan for Lastings is to have him replace Floyd in left in 2007. (That doesn't rule out a late-season 2006 callup, of course.) Floyd recently said that he and the Mets have decided to postpone negotiating an extension until after the season.

I wonder what will happen if Floyd has a 2006 that's a lot like his 2005. Will the Mets be tempted to bring him back? (I'm sure he'd want at least a two-year deal, if not more.) And if that happens, does Milledge get into the right field mix?

Should be interesting. (Of course, if Floyd flops, the question will be moot. Or mute, if you prefer.)

Frayed Knot
Feb 23 2006 10:19 AM

"That doesn't rule out a late-season 2006 callup"

I think that's pretty much what they mean; that he'll make his first ML appearance at some point in 2006, not that he's destined to hold down a full-time job from opening day onward.

Frayed Knot
Feb 23 2006 04:42 PM

Not a whole lotta Met-related questions to Jim Callis in BA's Q&A (not surprising really).

- Was Anderson Hernandez close to making it?
[Callis] No, his sudden offensive outburst in 2005 likely a fluke and I see him as a utility player

- What are the chances of either Milledge or Pelfrey making the team out of ST?
Virtually none

- One guy asked about Mike Jacobs (who's not on the list)
Dont' like 25 y/o 1st basemen. More Kevin Maas than someone special

- Also one about Y. Petit
The usual answer about wondering if his lack of "stuff" will eventually allow batters to catch up to him


Btw, the big "winners" in this year's BA top-100:
Dodgers with 9 players!
Anaheim & Florida w/7 each
D'Backs also w/7 including 6 of the top 32 !!

cleonjones11
Feb 24 2006 10:05 PM
Wouldnt it be nice

If Milledge is the second coming of David Wright?

Edgy DC
Mar 16 2006 05:10 PM

I think we have a few prospect update threads floating around. I'll put this here. Baseball America Talks Development at Mets Camp.

Vic Sage
Mar 17 2006 12:03 PM

so does anybody know anything more about

Deolis Guerra -p
Jacobo Neguilis- p
Carlos Gomez- of
Fernando Martinez- of
Andy Wilson- c/1b
Junior contreras- 1b
Hector Pellot- ?

And how come, when player development guys talk about "fundamentals", they talk about bunting and basestealing (stuff that is relatively less important to run production) and they rarely talk about plate discipline (pitch recognition, pitch selection, and patience), which is the single most important and therefore FUNDAMENTAL set of skills to develop in a young hitter?

Edgy DC
Mar 17 2006 12:29 PM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Mar 17 2006 12:33 PM

Um, I don't know. Didn't come up?

Deolis Guerra --- a teenager whose signing occurred the same day as Fernando Martinez. He has yet to play a professional game, but has what they call a projectable body, and is already ranked in the mets top 20 by those who included guys who haven't played jet.

Jacobo Neguilis --- don't know him.

Carlos Gomez --- the number two prospect by some sources. Toolsy, but still a teenager. The wheels are there and the power may or may not be coming. Heading to St. Lucie this spring probably.

Fernando Martinez --- biggest signing bonus ever for a Dominican teenager, though a year before he could play. Many teams were after him, but this is one of those guys that Omar Minaya believes finds the Mets a more attractive team because of Pedro.

Andy Wilson --- Old for his level (he lost a few years in independent leagues), but hit a ton last year and the Mets are trying him at different positions to give him a route to progress. The Baseball Cube just lists him as "H" for "Hitter," but he''s an adequate catcher.

Junior contreras --- Dunno.

Hector Pellot --- A grouchy Belgian detective and a a Puerto Rican secondbaseman who was the fourth round pick in 2005 and the team is high on. He worked out with St. Lucie last year but didn't play because he signed a 2006 contract.

Edgy DC
Mar 17 2006 12:33 PM

The Mets low rated system may not be too much (don't read as "no") cause for worry, because so much of that is due to an aggressive offeseason of trading, but they've been just as aggressive in making international signings, and many of their top prospects didn't appear last year, and so aren't appearing on lists this spring (or are deliberately undervalued). The system could look very different (or not) by midseason.

The bigger worry is how those trades will pay off.

Vic Sage
Mar 17 2006 12:38 PM

]Um, I don't know. Didn't come up?


um, do you think?
I don't.
I think it didn't come up because its not something they focus on. If it was, it WOULD'VE come up. And it certainly SHOULD come up anytime these guys talk about "fundamentals".

I think Bernazard etal don't focus on it for the same reasons Minaya and Randolph don't... because they're still locked into an outdated mode of how to look at baseball, untainted by the statistical analysis being done for the last 20 years.

Which concerns me more than the particular outcome of particular trades.

Edgy DC
Mar 17 2006 12:43 PM

They may well fail to focus on it. I wouldn't be too surprised. I certainly noticed it without you pointing it out.

I'm rather surprised that Baseball America didn't press the point.

Edgy DC
Mar 17 2006 12:50 PM

I mean look at it. When the word "fundamentals" was brought up, it was related to defense. Batting instruction didn't really come up. When they spoke about Milledge and Gomez as hitters, it was more in terms of assessment, not how they're being instructed.

You and I both notice the lack of reference to plate discipline, with the exception of praising a player's (Martinez's) ability to recognize a pitch on the outside of the plate and go the other way, but there's not much conclusive there. Martinez hasn't appeared in the US yet.

Vic Sage
Mar 17 2006 01:13 PM

i guess i'm making a broader point... my perception of a continuing resistance in baseball to the overriding importance of OB% by many baseball professionals who still would rather take potshots at Billy Beane then look at their own organizations and figure out how to adopt measures to adapt to the 21st century.

...and my fear that our team is amongst those on the wrong side of history.

Johnny Dickshot
Mar 20 2006 04:42 PM

Check this article out!

From BA:

]pring Training Dish: Mets Camp
by Chris Kline
March 16, 2006

Editor's note: Assistant editor Chris Kline is spending three weeks of spring training coverage in Florida's Grapefruit League. Today's stop: Mets camp. Coming Friday: Dodgertown in Vero Beach.


3/20: Spring Training Dish: Nationals Camp
3/17: Spring Training Dish: Dodgers Camp
3/16: Spring Training Dish: Mets Camp
3/15: Spring Training Dish: Marlins Camp
3/15: Q&A with Jim Fleming
PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla.--For as much excitement as there is over at the Mets major league camp for the upcoming season--and there were over 100 fans waiting for autographs waiting outside the big league clubhouse at Tradition Field on a day when the club was on the road--New York's player development system generates minimal buzz. BA ranked the Mets' system last in out talent rankings in the Prospect Handbook--though the rankings did not reflect the presence of righthander Mike Pelfrey, the club's first-round pick who signed in January.

However, a day in Mets camp revealed there are reasons for Mets fans to get excited about the farm system, and that extends well beyond No. 1 prospect Lastings Milledge, who will likely begin the year at Triple-A Norfolk.

Farm director Adam Wogan has only been on the job for a few months since coming over from the Nationals, but thanks to assistant to the GM Tony Bernazard, field coordinator Tony Tijerina and the rest of the field staff, Mets camp is running like a well-oiled machine. And that makes getting Wogan acclimated that much easier.

Both Wogan and Bernazard tend to shun the spotlight, instead directing praise on roving instructors Edgar Alfonzo (infield), Lamar Johnson (hitting), Rick Patterson (baserunning/bunting), Bob Natal (catching), Rick Waits (pitching), and their well-established field staff. That group also now includes Kevin Morgan, previously the farm director and now the coordinator of instruction.

BA sat down with Wogan and Bernazard to talk about the state of the system, how much developing players has changed since general manager Omar Minaya took over and a pair of outfielders that take a back seat to Milledge--for now.

Baseball America: What is the general philosophy for developing players in the system right now? And is there any emphasis on any particular aspect of the game organization-wide or is that more included in player's personal plans?

Tony Bernazard: As an organization, we want our players to play the game the right way--to have everyone fundamentally sound. A lot of people say that, but here we stress doing all the little things the right way. We want our players to focus and learn solid fundamentals and play smart baseball.

This is nothing fancy, nothing new. We want to build a championship-caliber team at the major league level, and it's our job to build players to contribute to that.

Adam Wogan: We definitely want our players to learn to be aggressive in games, but we also want them to all be smart players. Everything we do, we're stressing fundamentals. So if we're doing cut-offs and relays or picks to second base or third base and there's a mistake made, there's no problem. That's why we do those drills. You stop it right there and make sure guys end on a positive with that rep and then do it over again. If there's any one thing that's wrong we want to stop it, re-do it and get to a positive result. We want everything to be done to a level of quality. We're not looking to just check it off the list.

TB: You know, this game has become a different game in some ways. Some people are more into getting fancy on defense, some people fall in love with how hard a guy can throw, some people want to teach more pitches before a guy has true command of what he already has, some people want a guy to hit for power before he really knows how to hit. There's nothing new here, we're just trying to teach our players the right way. The game is simple and we want to keep it simple for them.

BA: OK, let's hit on some players now. We've heard Philip Humber is progressing in his rehab faster than anticipated. What's the update on Humber?

TB: He's ahead of schedule and we're constantly monitoring his progress. But even though he's ahead of schedule, there is absolutely no rush for him to get back. Time and his hard work rehabbing will heal his arm, and his arm is going to tell us where he is. He's a competitor and wants to get back out there, but we're being cautious and nothing will clear him until our medical team says he's ready to go.

BA: Obviously Lastings gets all the attention because he's so close to breaking in, but what about Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez?

AW: I've been around for these guys for just a few weeks, so some of it's based on my own eyes and a lot of it's based on reports we have on these guys, but Fernando hasn't even played in a professional game yet. Unless you want to count a major league spring training game; he's already got a hit over there--he's pretty impressive at 17.

He's just very mature, very strong physically. He's ahead of his years in terms of his ability to hit. I'm not talking about power, but his ability to use the whole field.

In terms of his strike zone, obviously I haven't seen him in minor league games yet, but he went with a pitch yesterday and hit it out the other way. He has speed and he has arm strength. He seems to be a guy who has everything you could want out of a center fielder.

With Gomez, there's speed and he's a very good bunter. From what I've seen and heard, everything about his game is very aggressive. You never would, but you'd have to tell him to slow down rather than speed up. He runs every ball out exactly you'd want a guy to. He's very aggressive on the basepaths, but we want him to be more aggressive this year, to improve his basestealing, but to take more chances. He stole 64 bases last year and we feel like he could have stolen quite a few more if he'd taken more opportunities to run. So it's understanding when the right time in the game is to do that, but at the same time there's only a few times in the minor leagues where you wouldn't want a guy to run in game situations.

He also has the ability to drive the ball--the ball comes off his bat well. He takes good routes defensively and has good range. My experience with these guys has been limited, but I've been incredibly impressed. They have a chance to be as talented as I imagine any young outfielders out there.

BA: Getting back to the mound for a second, righthander Deolis Guerra seems to have a lot of upside. He was the other high-dollar player the Mets signed on the international front last summer. What is there to like about Guerra?

AW: The changeup is the key, although the total package is phenomenal. Physically looking at him as a 17-year-old kid is impressive. And he has a chance to get bigger and stronger as his body fills out. But the changeup really is a plus pitch at this point. Obviously he still has a lot to learn in every phase, but another very mature guy.

BA: It seems like maturity is a running theme here among guys that were born the same year I graduated high school. What does 2005 fourth-rounder Hector Pellot bring to the organization?

AW: He's the guy who came into our Step Camp (a sort of mini-camp for prospects the organization holds every year) who comes in at 19 years old and you could just see his focus was there. Mistakes he makes he doesn't make twice. He's the guy translating, he's the guy bringing up issues to his teammates trying to help them out--English speakers and Spanish speakers. But his abilities are there too. It's just not a guy with great makeup who steps up to help his teammates whenever he can, the ability is there too.

BA: Henry Owens is an intriguing guy you took as a Rule 5 draft in the minor league phase who's been building on success since the Arizona Fall League. What has his velocity been like and how much has his breaking ball progressed since last season?

TB: A very good arm who's come along exceptionally well. His fastball is mid-90s plus and he's really worked hard on his breaking ball. His slider has been sharp and a lot more consistent than it was late last year. But that's the main reason he was sent to the Fall League and then to winter ball--to work on his slider. And it started getting better back in instructs.

BA: Tony, I know the organization has worked very hard to set up a development system that not only builds players on the field, but people as well. What do players gain from having access to programs like cooking classes, finance classes, nutrition classes, etc.?

TB: Well, we care about what these kids are going to do while they're playing baseball and when they're done playing baseball from ownership all the way through the organization. It's very important to us that if and when they should leave the organization that they have the life skills to be able to move on from there and become the best person they can be.

METAMORPHOSES

• Outfielder Carlos Gomez made his presence known in an intrasquad game on Tuesday, putting down two bunt singles--after which he turned on the afterburners with a 3.8 time (both times) to first from the right side of the plate. Gomez, who signed as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican, also hit an inside-the-park home run in the game.

• Andy Wilson is trying to improve his versatility this spring. Wilson, a nondrafted free agent out of Stetson in 2003, went to the Fall League to get some work in behind the plate and has been working with high Class A St. Lucie manager Gary Carter early in camp. But he was splitting time yesterday, taking ground balls at first and then catching bullpens. "We're looking at (him as) primarily catcher for us right now," Wogan said. "We know he can hit; people who have been with him really rave about his offensive ability. We know that he can catch, but we feel like spending more time behind the plate can only improve his versatility and eventually establish one position for him if he can do what we've seen him do back there." Wilson hit .284/.370/.532 with 28 home runs last season at high Class A St. Lucie, then went 0-for-7 at Triple-A Norfolk.

• Keep an eye on: Righthander Jacobo Neguilis and first baseman Junior Contreras. Neguilis is out for a few days after oral surgery, but has a power arm with good command and should make his debut in the States this season after spending three years in the Dominican Summer League. The 21-year-old went 0-1, 1.94 in 42 innings in the DSL last season.

Contreras, 20, is especially intriguing--a first baseman with plus raw power, he also has especially soft hands at his position and moves well for a 6-foot-6, 250-pounder. He hit .291/.401/.500 with eight homers in 148 at-bats in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League last season and will likely begin the year at low Class A Hagerstown.

• It seems like the Mets have a system for everything in every camp. They have made nutrition a priority among their players, recently adding a full-service cafeteria to the minor league complex at Tradition Field. The menu on Wednesday was lasagna, steamed vegetables and bread over the hour break at lunch. And for players, uniform assignments are split up by position players, pitchers and catchers. "Pitchers wear all white, catchers wear their road grays, rehab guys wear orange shirts and everybody else? Those guys are the position players," veteran righthander David Manning said.

• Speaking of systems, the Mets have rules that have little to do with baseball as well. Here are a few of the Mets' official rules for minor league players during spring training: "One chain is allowed on the field, but it cannot be visible," . . . "No paraphernalia (hats, jerseys, etc.) from other clubs is to be worn at any time," . . . "No Oakleys or other sunglasses are permitted to be worn on top of baseball caps at any time," . . . "No alcohol is allowed in the hotel room. The hotel bar is off limits," . . . "No tobacco is to be used in or around the hotel."

Edgy DC
Mar 20 2006 04:49 PM

Johnny Dickshot
Mar 20 2006 04:52 PM

I more into stealing these days than following links. Sorry. Saved for posterity.

REally interesting article anywhoo.

Edgy DC
Mar 20 2006 04:59 PM

Yup. And now we'll know what we were talking about a year from now. Posterity served and I don't feel guilty.

What's interesting (and exciting, if you're optimistic) is how many guys --- late signers, foreign free agents, and Dominican Academy graduates --- didn't make a lot of rankings this offseason, giving the Mets a very low-rated system after the gutting deals, but are being seemingly looked to with hopes of providing a quick impact. They're trying to change on the fly.

Johnny Dickshot
Mar 20 2006 05:01 PM

I enjoyed learning we had a 6-6, 250-pounder called "Junior."