Apr 03 2016 06:51 AM
Edited 3 time(s), most recently on Apr 03 2016 11:07 AM
Fangraphs projections don't like them. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA doesn't like them (again). The various data collators/processors/assessors tend attribute their success to "cluster luck" and "clutch" and various other theoretically-irreproducible assets.
To those folks, Royals fans (a colorful group including comedic types like Paul Rudd, Jason Sudeikis, and Eric Stonestreet of "Modern Family;" Cat-suit guys, and jiggly Superfan Jimmy Faseler) respond: Scoreboard. [Ed. note: (Sighs deeply for 17 minutes)]
I mean, aside from Ben Zobrist, Johnny Cueto, and a couple of 'pen-weapons/veteran broken toys, they're belly-rolling into this season with pretty much the same core (thanks to a likely-bargain re-inking of Alex Gordon), the same league-leading contact rates, and the same, literal-game-changing bullpen. Plus, they've got expensive high-powered BP-pitching machine Ian Kennedy (4/$72M), erstwhile Royal/Mexicutioner Joakim Soria, and a couple of rejuvenated, different broken toys (suddenly-95-mph-throwing Chien-Ming Wang, some face-merkined dude named after a letter).
They're due to regress, bullpen-performance-wise, granted. And the starting pitching, well... Edison Volquez is the beacon of stability. (That bears repeating: Edison Volquez is the anchor.) But they've got plenty. And between retreads, reclamation projects (including Kris Medlen, whom we'll miss), and fragile top prospect Kyle Zimmer (ETA: sometime this summer), they do have more starting-pitching depth, at least. They'll be a handful. A handful with a ring. [Ed. note: (Eats a sleeve of Do-Si-Dos; sleeps for days)
STARTING LINEUP (Sinister socialist-types get a *; Changeling warlocks get a **)
C: Salvador Perez (2015 stats: 553 PA, .260/.280/.426, 52 R, 21 HR, 70 RBI)
Good defender with a good smile, Benito-Santiago-y plate thing, and a good-value contract (just having re-upped for 5 years/$52M) at a tough position.
None of which will help him gain entry into a Jewish cemetery, when all's said and done.
1B: Eric Hosmer* (667 PA, .297/.363/.459, 98 R, 18 HR, 93 RBI)
Come for the pony hair and pro-wrestler-style training/practice outfits, stay for the opponent-maddening all-around goodness. He adjusted to the league's 2014 adjustments to his 2013 offensive breakout, and produced his finest season yet, to the tune of 3.5 WAR. Captain Haircut works a count, gets on base, takes virtually every extra base he can get, plays defense that makes Gold with alchemical efficiency... certain segments of Royal fandom seem obsessed with whether he'll ever develop consistent 20-HR power. Those segments are either dummies or ingrates-- they've got a poor-man's Olerud already.
SO poor, apparently, that he can't afford two sleeves.
2B: Omar Infante** (455 PA, .220/.234/.318, 39 R, 2 HR, 44 RBI)
Hey! Omar Infante's alive! Or is he just undead, as his batting line suggests? This should have been Christian Colon's spot, but, well... he would've been more productive at the plate if he'd just actually dropped trou/a Royal dung pile each time he came to bat, instead of just figuratively doing so (.137/.200/.157 in 55 PA). At least Infante brings a rock-solid glove to work, even if said glove has four split fingers, a webbing made of individual laces, and is signed by his former Braves teammate Billy Herman.
3B: Mike Moustakas* (614 PA, .284/.348/.470, 73 R, 22 HR, 82 RBI)
In a do-or-die year, this mook did nothing but do, putting up career-best numbers at the plate while continuing to play-- stop me if you've heard this one, before, person hearing things about Royals in your spare time-- stellar defense. And, yeah, I kinda wanted to punch him in his braying, scratchy-bearded face, too, until I found out he was doing it all while watching his mom wrestle with cancer for the last time.
He still looks like he's smelling something terrible whenever he smiles, frowns, concentrates, talks, or is.
"Oh, Christ, I can smell our starting pitching depth from here."
SS: Alcides Escobar (662 PA, .257/.293/.320, 76 R, 3 HR, 47 RBI, 17 SB/22 Attempts)
Oh, that playoff contact rate! Oh, those line drives! He's like a human rally towel! Swing, swing hard, swing even harder and-- BOOM-- instant runs, right?
His postseason raking aside, he's all wild swings at anything and prime defensiveness, really. Basically, he's Trump, only skinny, more likable, and less orange.
LF: Alex Gordon* (422 PA, .271/.377/.432, 40 R, 13 HR, 48 RBI, 2 SB/7 Attempts)
Pounds fastballs as if they were a heavy bag, and he were a... um... person who hits heavy bags. Hard. He runs well (despite the SB iffiness, fields very well, and is likely the best all-around Royal honkballer not named...
CF: Lorenzo Cain (609 PA, .307/.361/.477, 101 R, 16 HR, 72 RBI, 28 SB/34 Attempts)
I predict... Cain-related headaches.
Sleep number: .987
RF: Paulo Orlando (251 PA, .249/.269/.444, 31 R, 7 HR, 27 RBI)
With Jarrod Dyson spending the first month or so nursing his hamstrings, Orlando likely has the first crack at the right-field gig. Last year's pleasant hitter-y surprise, his Dawn-ing power-- with no precedent in his minor league track record-- is likely a fluke. He's speedy, and decent on the base paths, but-- unlike Dyson or Cain or Escobar-- doesn't steal. [Ed. note: This could be the rookie Fuentes on one or both days, depending on how Yosty manager Ned Yost is feeling.]
DH: Kendry Morales** (639 PA, .290/.362/.485, 81 R, 22 HR, 100 RBI)
Oh, dat stick... is wielded by someone who once hurt himself celebrating a walkoff grand slam, an injury that cost him big parts of two seasons. He was around for 158 games last year, but will turn 33 this year, and moves like a Cuban Fred Sanford. But dat stick, doe.
"ASK ME ABOUT BONIVA!"
BENCH
Keep in mind: This is with hat head
C: Drew Butera (2015 stats: .198/.226/.267): Glove-first second catcher. But, oh, the hair game. And he may be Ariana Grande's cousin!
IF Christian Colon (.290/.356/.336): Game-winning single in WS Game 5. Gets on base, does little else (.049 ISO so far).
OF Reymond Fuentes* (2015 AAA stats: .308/.360/.422): He actually IS Carlos Beltran's cousin! Has more than a puncher's chance at RF-of-the-future. Even if he's not... look at those wee legs go!
OF Terrance Gore (2015 AA stats: .284/.367/.311): Look at those even-wee-er legs go!
MATCHUPS
Sunday, 4/3: Sir Bladderclot vs.
RHP Edinson Volquez (33 GS, 200 1/3 IP, 3.55 ERA/1.31 WHIP, 13-9, 155 K/72 BB, 16 HR allowed)
It all comes down to throwing strikes with this guy. He's achieved career-lows in each of the last two years in walk-rate-- is this a newfound skill, or a lucky blip on the career radar? He misses fewer bats than he used to. Also, he misses more shirt buttons.
Fastball, 60; Control, 30-40; Manual Dexterity, As In That Used To Button Buttons, 10
Tuesday, 4/5: Kid Thunder vs. RHP Chris Young (34 G/18 GS, 123 1/3 IP, 3.06 ERA/1.09 WHIP, 11-6, 83 K/43 BB, 16 HR allowed)
Good glavin, is he squeezing every last drop out of this close-release-point-unnerves-hitters/pitch-to-contact spiel. He did pretty damn well in two appearances during the Series, including a scoreless, hitless 3 frames in Game 1's waxing moments. In limited AB agin'em, pretty much nobody on the Mets (Cespedes, 1-11 lifetime; Wright, 1-9) has squared him up, save young Master Conforto (1-1, with a HR). Flyball guy, in the extreme.
BULLPEN
RHP C-M Wang (AAA: 130 IP, 5.88 ERA/1.69 WHIP; 51 K/35 BB, 11 HR allowed): Walking Dead
RHP Dillon Gee (39 2/3 IP, 5.90 ERA/1.66 WHIP; 25 K/11 BB, 5 HR): Who?
LHP Danny Duffy (136 2/3 IP, 4.08 ERA/1.39 WHIP; 102 K/53 BB, 15 HR): Nice stuff; results haven't quite caught up
RHP Luke Hochevar (50 2/3 IP, 3.73 ERA/1.28 WHIP; 49 K/16 BB, 7 HR): Another year removed from elbow surgery
RHP Kelvin Herrera (69 2/3 IP, 2.71 ERA/1.12 WHIP; 64 K/26 BB, 8 HR): Hard-throwing righty, with no ligament problems yet/terrible beard game
On the plus side, his cheeks are almost-certainly lice-free.
RHP Joakim Soria (67 2/3 IP, 2.53 ERA/1.09 WHIP; 64 K/19 BB, 8 HR): Second-go-round with the Royals for this one
RHP Wade Davis: (67 1/3 IP, 0.94 ERA/0.79 WHIP; 78 K/20 BB, 3 HR): JESUS, THIS GUY
OURS WITH ROYAL BLOODLINES
None
THEIRS WHO HAVE MET
Messrs. Gee and Young
PREDICTION: Mets 1, Mrs. Brett's Gentlemen 1
