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Standings in 2016
Edgy MD Apr 25 2016 04:42 PM |
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Congratulations, your Mets start the week as the first-place team in the Wild Card race, and the hottest team in the league.
NL Wild Card Race
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Centerfield Apr 25 2016 05:47 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
It's very early, but I wouldn't be surprised if the current top 6 end up being the eventual playoff contenders. Maybe Arizona and SF make some noise.
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TransMonk Apr 25 2016 06:07 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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I was thinking the exact same thing.
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Edgy MD Apr 25 2016 06:16 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
I wouldn't count the Giants out. It's an even year. They're due.
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Lefty Specialist Apr 25 2016 08:06 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Boy, the NL cleaves very easily into the haves and have-nots, doesn't it?
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soupcan Apr 25 2016 08:07 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
No one has any faith in Pittsburgh?
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Centerfield Apr 25 2016 08:07 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
I'm all for cleavage.
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Frayed Knot Apr 25 2016 08:11 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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They're part of the top 6
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soupcan Apr 25 2016 08:14 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
I stand corrected.
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Chad Ochoseis Apr 25 2016 08:17 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
The funny thing about Pittsburgh is that they're absolutely killing it in batting average and OBP, but middle of the pack in runs scored. Power matters, more than I ever thought.
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Edgy MD Apr 25 2016 08:36 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
A simple number based on an arbitrarily derived formula to measure the league's hotter and colder teams.
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Frayed Knot Apr 26 2016 08:07 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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Well there are a lot of .500-ish teams that could join one faction or the other as the year moves on. Although, not that I put a lot of stock in 'Power Rankings', the one over on BP certainly contributes to the split league theory. -- On their list for this week, five of the top six teams in baseball are NL clubs [Cubs, Nats, Dodgers, **White Sox**, Mets, Cards] while, at the same time, ALL of the bottom five are NLers also [Padres, Phils, Reds, Brewers, Braves]
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Centerfield Apr 28 2016 02:08 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Some interesting things going on so far in this early season:
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TransMonk Apr 28 2016 02:22 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
I think this weekend against SF will be good test for the Mets. The Giants are certainly the best team they have played since that wacky two-game series vs. KC to open the year.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Apr 28 2016 02:32 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Could be a good demonstration of the power of rotation depth, as we have Matz-deGrom-Syndergaard on tap, and hard not to predict we get 2 of 3 with those guys going against anybody.
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Benjamin Grimm Apr 28 2016 02:37 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
My feeling right now is that the division will be determined by the head-to-head between the Mets and the Nationals. (Strange that their first meeting won't be until May 17; all of the other divisional opponents have already met the Mets.)
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Edgy MD Apr 28 2016 02:40 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Most of the head-to-heading will be after the Wheeler Equinox.
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TransMonk Apr 28 2016 02:43 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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Agreed. Ronnie in the booth last night was going through Harvey's next batch of starts (as long as the Mets stick with a five-man rotation). Essentially he was saying he wanted to continue to see Matt make improvements vs. weaker teams like ATL, SD and COL, but that Harvey needs to have his shit fully together (paraphrasing, obviously) by the time that first Nationals series rolls around May 17-19.
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Frayed Knot Apr 28 2016 03:06 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Nats currently best in NL at run prevention at 2.6 RA/G, exactly 0.4 R/G better than the 3rd-best Mets (3.0)
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Edgy MD Apr 28 2016 03:34 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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I tend to think that pitching depth is a great way to build a great team, but not necessarily the best distribution of resources to get you through the post season. At least, that was my conclusion from watching the dynastic Braves coming up short year after year. I mean, eight or nine pitchers can carry you through a season. But you can get through the playoffs with seven. Ease up on the restrictions and ride the best ones a little harder. The World Series? You can pound through that with six guys, if they're the right six guys. If you're Tommy Lasorda, you don't give crap about anybody's future. The future is now! But if you've spent good money on building up far more pitching depth than you need for a short series, money that could have been spent on a slugging infielder, you may not end up being the World Series Champ you've looked like all season long. Regular season baseball and post-season baseball are two different ballgames. I'm not sure how to reconcile that.
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Frayed Knot Apr 28 2016 11:45 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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Just completed a sweep of the Nats, including back-to-back 3-0 shutouts. (3 runs allowed the whole series) Always nice to gain ground on an off day.
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Centerfield Apr 29 2016 02:48 AM Re: Standings in 2016 |
How great is it that it was the Phils beating Papelbon?
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Benjamin Grimm Apr 29 2016 09:55 AM Re: Standings in 2016 |
And I didn't even have to go to Peru to make it happen!
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Fman99 Apr 29 2016 12:08 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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Edgy MD Apr 30 2016 12:12 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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Bill James publishes a Heat Index too!
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Edgy MD May 02 2016 01:26 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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With the Mets' loss yesterday, the new hottest team in the National League is, shockingly, the Philadelphia Phillies.
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TransMonk May 02 2016 01:45 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... edictions/
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Frayed Knot May 02 2016 02:01 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
I'm thinking the Cardinals might be in a bit of trouble this year.
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Edgy MD May 02 2016 02:08 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Peralta is due back at the start of June. That's one thing.
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Frayed Knot May 02 2016 03:40 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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Sure but, when he does return, he'll likely represent a step back from his replacement.
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batmagadanleadoff May 08 2016 03:54 AM Re: Standings in 2016 |
This division sure doesn't read like it's supposed to be baseball's worst. Meanwhile, the Braves are on pace to break the '62 Mets record for ineptitude.
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Chad Ochoseis May 08 2016 02:39 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
While the NL standings are surprising nobody, the AL is upside down. The Astros, who were a lock to win the West, are in last place, 7 1/2 out. The Central was supposed to be a tossup between the Indians and Royals, currently in a virtual tie for second at a game over .500 and 5 1/2 games behind the White Sox. In the East, the Blue Jays (4th place) were a sure thing, and the first-place Orioles were supposed to be the worst team in the AL.
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Frayed Knot May 08 2016 07:38 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Other oddities in this season so far:
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Edgy MD May 08 2016 09:49 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Mets.
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Rockin' Doc May 09 2016 02:18 AM Re: Standings in 2016 |
The Mets move into 1st place in the NL East. What a great bonus for Mother's Day.
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themetfairy May 09 2016 02:47 AM Re: Standings in 2016 |
To all the mothers out there, Happy First Place Day!
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Frayed Knot May 09 2016 01:42 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
The Cardinals are probably the best example of the up/down nature of the NL so far.
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Edgy MD May 09 2016 01:43 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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It's always a dangerous point in the season when the leading team in the league is also the hottest team in the league. And that's what they Cubs are. And the ivy is green and Zobrist is starting to show his merits.
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Centerfield May 09 2016 02:03 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
NL East has 4 of the top 6 teams in the league.
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Centerfield May 09 2016 02:05 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
By the way, how insane is that Cubs record? They are almost '85 Gooden as a team.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket May 09 2016 02:23 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Cubs can eat my asshole.
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TransMonk May 14 2016 12:45 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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Edgy MD May 23 2016 02:16 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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As the Giants climb the beanstalk and the Reds fade to gray (slipping assuredly into Brave territory), the Mets find that they are no longer Baseball Prospectus' favorite to win the division, even as they continue sport a happy 89% likelihood of post-season play.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket May 23 2016 02:28 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Oh, chart foul. Very bad.
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Edgy MD May 23 2016 02:39 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Yeah, sorry. I've fixed two errors.
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Edgy MD May 31 2016 12:17 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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One thing that really worked out last year is that, while the Mets hung in second, 1-3 games behind Washington six weeks in the mid-summer, they never panicked. Not only did they have players scheduled to return from injury (which is hard to count on), and trading chips (also no guarantee), but all summer long, oddsmakers looked to a meaningfully weak schedule over the last two months. And the Mets went and ate that up.
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Edgy MD Jun 06 2016 10:31 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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Last year the Mets were able to ride out the injury storm, staying in striking distance, and murdering 'em down the stretch. But last year, the Mets had a soft schedule down the stretch, and Washington steadfastly refused to pull away.
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Benjamin Grimm Jul 05 2016 06:59 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
A comparison of the Mets ups and downs over the courses of this season and last.
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Edgy MD Jul 07 2016 05:49 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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We head into this series facing a Nats team that, while not exactly a blacktop-melting menace, is effectively the hottest team in the league.
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Benjamin Grimm Jul 07 2016 05:55 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
No word yet from Sweden on the NHOP for this year.
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Edgy MD Jul 08 2016 05:31 AM Re: Standings in 2016 |
I've been trying to get that one for hours.
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Edgy MD Jul 26 2016 05:00 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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A brief return to the standings as the Mets return to Wild Card "leader" status, if only by percentage points.
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Edgy MD Aug 22 2016 01:21 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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Two of the three divisions seem to be pretty secure (but you NEVER know), while five teams scramble for two Wild Card spots. Colorado refuses to quit, and even team-in-revolt Cincinnati is showing some heart.
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Edgy MD Aug 28 2016 01:47 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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Standings update after only two days? Sounds like a lot of work, but the key number below is that the Mets their Wild Card likelihood by 7.8 points over that period, seemingly all of which has been taken off of Pittsburgh's plate. That's worth reporting.
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LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Aug 28 2016 02:50 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
The problem is, there's the teams that are division leaders, the teams we have to pass... and then, a whole lot of terrible teams. And weirdo Colorado.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Aug 28 2016 03:09 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Those W-L figures in your standings ain't accurate today, are they?
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Edgy MD Aug 28 2016 04:55 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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Well, if they aren't, then I'm wasting a lot of time. Somebody buy LWFS some ice cream.
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LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Aug 29 2016 06:47 AM Re: Standings in 2016 |
[Screams into pillow, as per nightly ritual]
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Aug 29 2016 11:21 AM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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nm, was looking at pyth
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Edgy MD Aug 30 2016 01:59 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Crane Pool Standings, Updated More Clearly
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Centerfield Aug 30 2016 02:16 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
That Pittsburgh loss last night was soul-crushing.
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Edgy MD Aug 31 2016 01:37 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
All you've got to do is look at the change in playoff odds in the Wild Card standings to glean what a reversal of fortune last night's win represented.
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TransMonk Aug 31 2016 02:39 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
[youtube:1l3iqozj]EhZba-P7R18[/youtube:1l3iqozj]
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Edgy MD Aug 31 2016 02:57 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Yeah, who knew it would be such a hopeful life to go into September seventh among 15 teams in the league? #betterthanthemean
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d'Kong76 Aug 31 2016 04:07 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
What is Heat in the Momentum section?
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d'Kong76 Aug 31 2016 06:39 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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TransMonk Aug 31 2016 07:09 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
From page one of this thread:
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d'Kong76 Aug 31 2016 07:22 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Thanks! For some reason I didn't notice HEAT in the brown tables.
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Edgy MD Aug 31 2016 07:25 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Brown tables suck.
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d'Kong76 Aug 31 2016 07:27 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Search sucks worse!
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Benjamin Grimm Aug 31 2016 08:13 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
I think you've both caught whatever batmagadanleadoff has. Did he sneeze on you or something?
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d'Kong76 Aug 31 2016 08:37 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Ewww haha... the tables aren't really brown but more a dried out
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Benjamin Grimm Aug 31 2016 08:53 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
We can change the brown. Maybe we can have a poll to pick the new table background colors.
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Edgy MD Aug 31 2016 09:00 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
It's more than the brown, though. I've been trying to figure out how we can allow the user to put some customizing code in there. Padding ... centering ... merging. I can't program any of that in there.
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d'Kong76 Aug 31 2016 09:29 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
I'm not complaining. I don't really use the table feature, I think the only time I've
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Edgy MD Sep 01 2016 01:20 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
I don't know what's going on, but Baseball Prosectus, who usually update their odds during the 4:00 AM hour, haven't done it yet for this morning. So ignore the odds columns for the time being. Suffice it to know that the Mets have done what only the bold and the crazy dare to attempt. They have stolen from Pirates.
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Edgy MD Sep 02 2016 12:03 AM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Coming in late with this morning's standings, but I think I finally got the playoff percentages right.
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d'Kong76 Sep 02 2016 02:38 AM Re: Standings in 2016 |
So in four days it went from 3½ to 2... guess we have to be happy with
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Edgy MD Sep 04 2016 02:54 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
If you can't be the hottest team in the league, it's nice to be the next-hottest, with the heat crown instead going to the team at the bottom of the standings. Bless you, Braves. And an extra helping of oatmeal for the Reds, too.
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Frayed Knot Sep 04 2016 03:05 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
They put up a graphic in the middle of sat night's game showing how all the NL WC contestants have below .500 records since some date in early/mid August - about 20 or so games.
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Nymr83 Sep 05 2016 02:45 AM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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that explains how a team that felt dead and still feels like it is treading water has actually closed the gap, nobody wants to make the playoffs!
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Frayed Knot Sep 05 2016 02:49 AM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Today's loss for the Pirates, for instance, was their [u:28pqpbqg]sixth straight[/u:28pqpbqg]!!, including three to the lowly Brew Crew.
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Edgy MD Sep 05 2016 12:14 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
My computer is in the shop (meaning, in the care of a friend of a friend who clearly smokes a LOT of weed), so there'll be no new standings posted today. Suffice to know that he Mets' likelihood of winning the division increased yesterday and last night from 0.2% to 0.3% according to Baseball Prospectus, and their likelihood of winning a wild card increased yesterday and last night from 42.9% to 49.9%, according to the same source.
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Edgy MD Sep 06 2016 12:32 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
The Mets are now a better-than-even-money bet to see the post-season.
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 09 2016 12:41 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
The Mets have a magic number! And it's... 23!
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Edgy MD Sep 09 2016 05:18 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Sorry. I'm on vacation without my laptop.
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 10 2016 12:18 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
The Mets are 4-3 against the Giants this year, so I assume that if they finished in a tie for the first Wild Card spot, the do-or-die game would be played at Citi Field.
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Edgy MD Sep 10 2016 12:39 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
The morning odds report at Baseball Prospectus give the Mets &3.3% chance at post-season money., including a 73% shot a wild card, and a 0.3% chance at NL East title.
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Frayed Knot Sep 10 2016 12:58 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
One thing that's helping the Mets WC odds -- aside from things like 5 more vs ATL, Minn x 3, Phil x 7, etc -- is that, starting this coming Thursday, the Cards go to SF for a four-game series (Sept 15-18)
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 10 2016 01:37 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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Well, that's interesting! My first instinct was that we should root for a spit of that series, but perhaps a four-game sweep by one team or the other would be better. It benefits the Mets more if one of those two teams is dealt a fatal blow.
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Chad Ochoseis Sep 10 2016 01:44 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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This also implies that the Braves were mathematically eliminated last night, even though the standings still have their elimination number as 1. Either the Cardinals or the Giants are guaranteed to win at least two more games. OE: WRONG! It's still mathematically possible for 75 wins to get a wild card. So, Braves fans - all six of you - don't lose hope yet!
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 10 2016 02:30 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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Ashie62 Sep 11 2016 09:29 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Bobbing like a great horse race.
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Centerfield Sep 13 2016 01:23 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Status quo never felt so good.
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 13 2016 01:32 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
The team that had the worst day yesterday was the Giants. The Mets and Cardinals, at least, crossed one game against a first-place team off their schedule without losing any ground. The Giants lost one of the "soft" games that they should have won.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 14 2016 11:43 AM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Geez went to bed figuring we'd just hold serve but good morning: San Diego scored 5 times in the 9th to beat the Giants last night.
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Frayed Knot Sep 14 2016 12:26 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Unbelievable how many 9th inning leads the Giants have blown this year, and particularly lately.
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Edgy MD Sep 14 2016 12:28 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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Just giving up on the idea that a team needs a closer can really get a manager a whole lot of freedom.
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Frayed Knot Sep 14 2016 12:46 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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Yeah, but it hasn't helped Bochy lately. In September alone they're 5-7 and lost 4 of those games on account of giving up late runs (including 3 in the 9th to lose by 1, and now 5 in the 9th to lose by 2). They even pulled out a couple of wins despite giving up late runs. In all it's pretty much been an across the board disaster for their pen even after Castilla had his closer's card taken away from him. Team is now 20-34 since the All-Star Break. Put another way, pre-ASB they were 57-33 and on pace for 103 wins. Since then they've been playing at the rate of a team destined for 102 losses over a full season. That's just a stunning reversal.
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Centerfield Sep 14 2016 02:35 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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I'm going to put out there that the team with the worst day was, again, the Giants. I would love for the Giants to go away and to take Madison Bumgarner with them. For our lefty-laden lineup, he might be the toughest matchup not named "Kershaw".
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Edgy MD Sep 14 2016 02:45 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Kershaw in New York today, by the way, making his first ever start at the Mausoleum. It's only his second start since going on the DL in late July (the other being three innings against Miami on Friday night), so big playoff implications beyond just the two teams and their places in the standings.
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 15 2016 12:49 AM Re: Standings in 2016 |
If the Cardinals beat the Giants tomorrow both teams and the Mets will be in a three-way tie.
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Centerfield Sep 15 2016 03:56 AM Re: Standings in 2016 |
It occurs to me that I have no idea who to root for in that game. Or for the whole series for that matter. I guess at the end of it all, the Mets just have to beat the Twins.
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 15 2016 10:11 AM Re: Standings in 2016 |
I don't know who to root for today either, but I hope today's winner goes on to sweep the series.
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themetfairy Sep 15 2016 11:42 AM Re: Standings in 2016 |
I'm rooting for all of the Cardinals/Giants games to go 15 innings, minimum!
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Lefty Specialist Sep 15 2016 11:53 AM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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Good point, as it would probably doom the loser (provided the Mets take care of their business).
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Frayed Knot Sep 15 2016 12:47 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Gary put it well yesterday.
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TransMonk Sep 15 2016 03:25 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
538.com is now giving the Mets an 85% chance of making the playoffs. San Fran is at 64%, St. Louis at 48% and the Marlins hanging around at 3%.
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 15 2016 03:37 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
By "making the playoffs" do they mean getting to that one-game Wild Card playoff, or do they mean advancing to the NLDS? (I'm assuming it's the former.)
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TransMonk Sep 15 2016 03:42 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
It means making it to the Wild Card play-in game.
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Centerfield Sep 15 2016 04:49 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
For me, if the Mets are pouring champagne on each other even once in a season, it's a pretty good season.
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 15 2016 04:52 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
That's right, 1988 was the Mets shortest postseason, with seven games. (The second-shortest was 1969, eight games, but I'd categorize that one as pretty successful.)
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Centerfield Sep 15 2016 05:14 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Also, I was thinking, how sweet would it be to beat Washington this year. You have to be at least a little nervous if you're a Washington fan right?
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 15 2016 05:15 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Duda is especially interesting. If in fact he does come back, will he have enough time to show that he merits a spot on a postseason roster?
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Centerfield Sep 16 2016 01:17 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
As of today, our lead for the second wild card is no longer a fraction.
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TransMonk Sep 16 2016 01:18 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Now that the Giants took the first game, I'm rooting for them for the rest of the weekend against the Cards (with the Mets taking care of business against the Twinkies being the primary objective, of course).
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Centerfield Sep 16 2016 01:22 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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Yup. This is exactly how we should be thinking. Still, there is not one bone in my body that feels right rooting for the Giants.
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Benjamin Grimm Sep 16 2016 01:36 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Half of my bones want to root for the Cardinals and half want to root for the Giants. (All in the interests of the Mets, of course.) I'm hoping that my skeleton gets fully synchronized within the next couple of days.
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TransMonk Sep 16 2016 01:41 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Some of the half games will return next week with the Cards playing next Thursday while the Mets are off and the Mets playing on Monday the 26th while the Giants are off.
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Frayed Knot Sep 16 2016 02:43 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
Also not insignificant is that the Dodgers lost last night to Arizona.
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Centerfield Sep 16 2016 02:53 PM Re: Standings in 2016 |
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At the very least, it makes them motivated to go all out for the 6 games remaining with the Giants. Kershaw in a 1 game playoff scares the hell out of me. I guess Bumgarner is not much better.
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