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Shifty Gears

John Cougar Lunchbucket May 05 2016 07:37 PM

Ken Rosenthal wrote: ALDERSON ON SHIFTS: A PRACTICAL APPROACH The Mets' limited use of defensive shifts qualifies as something of a surprise, considering that Mets GM Sandy Alderson was one of the first executives to employ modern analytics. But only two teams have employed fewer shifts than the Mets, according to Fangraphs -- the Red Sox and Marlins. "It's not philosophical," Alderson said. "We try to be very practical in our approach to the game. "First of all, you have to define what a shift is. I'm assuming that you define a shift as an extra player on one side of the bag or another. We don't have as many of those profound shifts. But we do position pretty aggressively, based on the data we have, even when we're not doing a shift by definition." And yet, the Mets do not simply go by the numbers. "We don't position strictly on the basis of the analytics," Alderson said. "We also do so on the basis of who's pitching, what the game plan might be. And secondly, we give our infielders a certain amount of discretion as well. "It's not a matter of, 'Well, our pitchers don't like it.' Pitchers are not necessarily that involved in the decision-making, but at the same time, it's not an all-analytics proposition for us. It's also about velocities, how somebody is being pitched, what has happened during the course of the game. "I know that would be anathema to a typical analyst where you can't dilute the data. But we do take that into consideration as well. It's something we constantly look at. From our standpoint, we're doing a lot of shifting. It's just not as radical as you see with some clubs."

Frayed Knot May 05 2016 07:58 PM Re: Shifty Gears

There have been several articles recently -- ones that I've skimmed but have yet to really dissect -- that are trying to get to the heart of exactly how effective (or not) the rather short history of these shifts have been. The bottom line seems to be that the data is still pretty sparse to draw any conclusions. BABiP hasn't really changed according to one report and you'd think that's the eventual litmus test. But it's also not quite that simple; you need to filter out the TTO ABs since obviously those aren't affected by shifts; anything other than grounders are pretty much noise as well, and so on until the size of the database just isn't that large just yet.

Edgy MD May 05 2016 08:00 PM Re: Shifty Gears

I'm more concerned about Metly commitment to beating the shift than Metly commitment to applying it.

John Cougar Lunchbucket May 05 2016 08:03 PM Re: Shifty Gears

I heard an interview with Cashman who insisted the MFYs one of the shiftiest if not the shiftiest club out there are totally convinced of its efficacy. I think the Mets do have a plan to beat the shift: A lineup where every player is capable of 15+ HRs a year.

Edgy MD May 05 2016 08:04 PM Re: Shifty Gears

Check out this crazy alignment the Dodgers used against the Padres back in August of 2014.

Ceetar May 05 2016 08:16 PM Re: Shifty Gears

Alderson's comments read like "We have more information than you, and are applying it in different ways that best fit our team and keep everyone happy and I'm not giving you anything more."

Frayed Knot May 05 2016 10:09 PM Re: Shifty Gears

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I heard an interview with Cashman who insisted the MFYs one of the shiftiest if not the shiftiest club out there are totally convinced of its efficacy. In some newspaper piece a couple days ago Cashman was whining about how the set-up of YSIII conspires against them in this 'Age of Shift' because shifts done in that small RF serves both to cut-off singles via grounders through the infield at the same time it crowds the OF so much that even liners and loopers don't fall in either. IOW, after decades of bragging about how the various version of YS were a big strength to the club smart enough to build a team with the park in mind, suddenly it isn't working anymore so we're using it as an excuse for our suckiness this year while our manager complains he wants all shifts outlawed.

cooby classic May 06 2016 12:04 PM Re: Shifty Gears

Edgy MD wrote: Check out this crazy alignment the Dodgers used against the Padres back in August of 2014. That is so weird looking! But under the circumstances it made sense. Not much the batter could do wxcept either try to hit to opposite field or just stand there and hope to draw a walk

Edgy MD May 06 2016 01:59 PM Re: Shifty Gears

It amazingly worked. The batter hit it hard right into the shift and the runner on third held. The next batter faced a traditional configuration, and he hit a game-winning single through the hole between first and second that had just re-opened. I would have positioned two of those infielders deeper, but congratulations to Mattingly for such a non-traditional deployment. Two outfielders, five infielders, four of them between first and second, and all of them at the lip of the grass.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr May 06 2016 02:15 PM Re: Shifty Gears

Frayed Knot wrote: BABiP hasn't really changed according to one report and you'd think that's the eventual litmus test. But it's also not quite that simple; you need to filter out the TTO ABs since obviously those aren't affected by shifts; anything other than grounders are pretty much noise as well, and so on until the size of the database just isn't that large just yet. Point in fact: BABIP filters out TTO ABs for you, by definition. It does seem, anecdotally, like teams that do this aggressively tend to squeeze the most out of their pitchers. But then, a lot of those teams-- TB or Houston, eg-- tend to be at the vanguard of proprietary defensive metrics/signing underrated defenders, so...