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How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

John Cougar Lunchbucket May 16 2016 03:01 PM

Neither guy had accomplished much yet but seems as though the Mets really miss Flores and d'Arnaud if only because they provided some credibility from the right side. I still think a power-hitting RH bench type (Byrd, Uribe, etc etc) would be a good idea for the future but not likely to be traded here today. We face a lefty (dickhead Gio Gonzalez) Wednesday. Roobs says Matt Reynolds is the likely recall if Gilmo or Verrett get sent back. Otherwise, Duda needs to make like Omar Minaya and call Doctor Joseph, or his son, Doctor Jeffrey, Dello Russo and get some lasik surgery. Other ideas?

TransMonk May 16 2016 03:17 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

Honestly, I think the day off will help. If nothing else, the guys will get some rest and can hopefully prepare mentally for what they will see this week.

d'Kong76 May 16 2016 03:27 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m. Edited 2 time(s), most recently on May 16 2016 03:36 PM

I wonder if they had a day-off day off or is there an 'optional' work out some time today. I miss that HVAC Guy at Shea so we could find out stuff like that. Party at Harv's place? Big blow out, show up a mess tomorrow! IV's at 4:00 sharp.

Ceetar May 16 2016 03:27 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

Duda will get right. Quick look at his discipline numbers are interesting. he's missing fewer pitches, and making more contact but his overall swing percentage is down. It's like he's choosing the wrong pitches to swing at, but he'll come around and be fine. I'd bet on his BB% going back up the 3% to normal, and his BABIP won't stay as low as .239, that's ridiculous. Never ever sit him for Eric Campbell for one. I think the day off will help more than anything really. Back at home, day off, heightened importance of division games. A lot of being 'better' is maximizing value, and you do that by beating the Nats. How do we best maximize David Wright during this stretch? You want him in there all 6 against the Nats, so does that mean he gets Friday AND Sunday off against the Marlins to try to keep him from playing 4 in a row? Or do you just bite the bullet and give him next Wednesday's day game against the Nats off? And Thor? He goes Tuesday and then on pace for Sunday against the Marlins. You gotta find a way to push him back to Monday against the Nats right? If it's me, I go Syndergaard, Harvey, deGrom, Colon, Verrett, spot starter, Syndergaard, Harvey, deGrom during this homestand. That raises the value of your pitching against your prime rival significantly, and it's little tweaks like this that Collins doesn't do that aggravate me more than anything else.

Edgy MD May 16 2016 03:35 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

Other ideas: Ty Kelly, T.J. Rivera, Brandon Nimmo, and a team-wide refresher course in protecting with two strikes. Stay in the at-bat, you Metly whiffers! Also, lay down a few bunts just to gum up the shift works. Bunting is beneath the dignity of nobody.

TransMonk May 16 2016 03:49 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

Ceetar wrote: How do we best maximize David Wright during this stretch? You want him in there all 6 against the Nats, so does that mean he gets Friday AND Sunday off against the Marlins to try to keep him from playing 4 in a row? Or do you just bite the bullet and give him next Wednesday's day game against the Nats off? And Thor? He goes Tuesday and then on pace for Sunday against the Marlins. You gotta find a way to push him back to Monday against the Nats right? If it's me, I go Syndergaard, Harvey, deGrom, Colon, Verrett, spot starter, Syndergaard, Harvey, deGrom during this homestand. That raises the value of your pitching against your prime rival significantly, and it's little tweaks like this that Collins doesn't do that aggravate me more than anything else. It's the Brewers instead of the Marlins over this weekend. Not to look past them, but I'm more comfortable resting guys up vs. Milwaukee than a division rival.

Ceetar May 16 2016 03:53 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

TransMonk wrote: Ceetar wrote: How do we best maximize David Wright during this stretch? You want him in there all 6 against the Nats, so does that mean he gets Friday AND Sunday off against the Marlins to try to keep him from playing 4 in a row? Or do you just bite the bullet and give him next Wednesday's day game against the Nats off? And Thor? He goes Tuesday and then on pace for Sunday against the Marlins. You gotta find a way to push him back to Monday against the Nats right? If it's me, I go Syndergaard, Harvey, deGrom, Colon, Verrett, spot starter, Syndergaard, Harvey, deGrom during this homestand. That raises the value of your pitching against your prime rival significantly, and it's little tweaks like this that Collins doesn't do that aggravate me more than anything else. It's the Brewers instead of the Marlins over this weekend. Not to look past them, but I'm more comfortable resting guys up vs. Milwaukee than a division rival. wow, I need more coffee. all I saw was the M on the thing. well yeah, same diff to me. Brewers are probably worse, so even easier to get away with it.

d'Kong76 May 16 2016 03:56 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

Edgy MD wrote: Also, lay down a few bunts just to gum up the shift works. Bunting is beneath the dignity of nobody. Professional hitters should be able to slap an outside pitch the other way 2-3 times out of ten without laying down a bunt? I forget where I heard it, but bifl...

Ceetar May 16 2016 04:12 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

d'Kong76 wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Also, lay down a few bunts just to gum up the shift works. Bunting is beneath the dignity of nobody. Professional hitters should be able to slap an outside pitch the other way 2-3 times out of ten without laying down a bunt? I forget where I heard it, but bifl... That's what the opposition WANTS you to do. Look for the outside pitch to slap the other way rather than the inside pitch to drive over the wall. They even pitch him that way. The top 3 of 20 pitch zones on Brooks Baseball are just off the plate middle-away, and the two zones down from that. These are also the areas of the strikezone that are extended for lefties that aren't for righties so even though they're balls, they're sometimes called strikes. And they're off the plate, so it's not like you're driving it the other way, you're hitting a soft two-bouncers to the one guy playing over there who slings it to first and you're out. And bunts probably have a high-percentage chance of going foul, given that you have to reach for it.

d'Kong76 May 16 2016 04:18 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

Ceetar wrote: That's what the opposition WANTS you to do. Look for the outside pitch to slap the other way rather than the inside pitch to drive over the wall. And we should thank them by getting a hit and man on the base paths instead of grounding out to some shifted schlub playing on the grass resulting into a walk back to the dugout.

Frayed Knot May 16 2016 04:39 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m. Edited 2 time(s), most recently on May 16 2016 04:46 PM

I'm not sure there's anything in particular that's 'flawed' about this team aside from the recent two-week slump-a-thon. Our BA & OBA, which had been around league average until recently, are now both at the somewhat below avg level which is what happens to all averages during early season slumps. The OPS is still above average thanks to the slugging. Mainly what the 'O' could use is a turn-around in the men-on & RiSP numbers which all year have been bottom-of-the-barrel bad, well below even the currently depressed overall BA/OBA levels. But aside from appealing to the clutch fairy (or trading for Jeter) you have to figure that a regression to the mean in those situations is in order at some point. And on the pitching side there's nothing to complain about except for Harvey and if he's going to suck for the time being then we're just going to have to eat that until someone figures out what's wrong and he starts un-sucking again.

cooby classic May 16 2016 04:44 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

Home cookin'

Edgy MD May 16 2016 05:48 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

"Bunting Is for Losers" is shorthand for "Sacrifice Bunting Is for Losers." Bunting for hits is awesome and daring and honorable and keeps the defense honest. [fimg=400]http://stuffnobodycaresabout.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Mantle-Bunt-Spring-Reds-won-4-2-Elston-Howard-1963.jpg[/fimg] Rick Barry was convinced that any player in the NBA who was willing to work on the underhand free throw could hit at least 80%. Maybe that's self-serving. But when you got some rebounding masher hitting 40-50% of his free throws, it's a scandal that he doesn't at least try it. But nobody wants to look wishy-washy like Rick Barry. When the defense is handing you a hole, it's a damn shame that folks ignore it and keep trying to find a seam among five (out of seven) guys playing to one side of second base. But big beefy guys don't want to go against their apparent strength, no matter how much it has been compromised. But they should. That's how Colón became a folk hero.

metirish May 16 2016 05:51 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

I feel for Wright(not really) , I have zero faith in him , he looks done and has a for years maybe....

Benjamin Grimm May 16 2016 05:54 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

It seems to me that when the shift is on, the hitter is likely to be pitched inside. If he gets an outside pitch, he should definitely jump on it and send it the other way.

Lefty Specialist May 16 2016 06:05 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

Thing is, you don't need to do it all the time, just enough to put it in their heads. Lucas is locked into one swing mode, which generates power but also a lot of 4-3 ground balls to shallow right field. He needs to at least try to hit it the other way once in a while to keep them honest and open up that hole in right field. Not everybody gets shifted on. Just last night they were saying how teams don't shift on Cabrera. The Rockies did, and lo and behold he hit one through the vacated spot.

Benjamin Grimm May 16 2016 06:26 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

I've seen Duda hit the ball the other way. So he meets the "once in a while" criteria. Maybe he doesn't do it frequently enough to make the shift a bad idea, but he also probably doesn't get that many outside pitches either. As he's said, it's very hard to hit an inside pitch to the opposite field.

Ceetar May 16 2016 06:28 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

nobodies getting fooled by Lucas Duda or some other masher occasionally deciding this at-bat he's going to lunge over the plate to slap one the other way, or working hard on bunting well in order to drop one down the third base line. You'd have to do it so regularly for it to move the spray charts. Unless you mean show bunt the first pitch to try to get guys to take a few steps over or in. I don't want Duda looking to flick pitches on the outside corner to the left trying to avoid the one guy there. I want him focusing on driving the ball. Which he does to all fields. He's only an extreme pull guy in terms of grounders. And grounders aren't really where Duda's going to be successful. .his low BABIP is a factor of luck, not the shift.

Frayed Knot May 16 2016 06:32 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

metirish wrote: I feel for Wright(not really) , I have zero faith in him , he looks done and has a for years maybe.... Wright's hitting .264/.377/.425 with 8 HRs & 15 doubles over the near half-season's worth of ABs that he has since returning from his back issues last August. Not what we were used to from the early years of his career certainly, but assuming that a .377 OBA with somewhere around 16 HRs and 30 doubles over a full season is the 'new normal' for him, I think we could live with that. It wouldn't be commensurate with his salary level of course, but it's not toast either.

batmagadanleadoff May 16 2016 06:37 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

His walk rates are a lot higher -- something very often associated with a former star suddenly losing bat speed, and then adjusting. Willie Mays, perhaps the best example. But yeah, Wright's not the same player that he was. Jeez, he used to murder lefties better than anybody else. Nowadays, they can get him out with heat right down the middle of the plate.

batmagadanleadoff May 16 2016 06:39 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

batmagadanleadoff wrote: His walk rates are a lot higher -- something very often associated with a former star suddenly losing bat speed, and then adjusting. Willie Mays, perhaps the best example. But yeah, Wright's not the same player that he was. Jeez, he used to murder lefties better than anybody else. Nowadays, they can get him out with heat right down the middle of the plate. Jeez, he's had to deal with a lot of adversity ever since the Mets moved into Citi Field -- not coincidentally. Citi Field itself was a horror show to have to hit in in its first few seasons.

Edgy MD May 16 2016 06:40 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

Ceetar wrote: nobodies getting fooled by Lucas Duda or some other masher occasionally deciding this at-bat he's going to lunge over the plate to slap one the other way, or working hard on bunting well in order to drop one down the third base line. You'd have to do it so regularly for it to move the spray charts. Unless you mean show bunt the first pitch to try to get guys to take a few steps over or in. I don't want Duda looking to flick pitches on the outside corner to the left trying to avoid the one guy there. I want him focusing on driving the ball. Which he does to all fields. He's only an extreme pull guy in terms of grounders. And grounders aren't really where Duda's going to be successful. .his low BABIP is a factor of luck, not the shift. (1) You don't have to bunt well in order to beat an extreme shift. Adequate suffices (2) Yes, making them let up on the shift is an aim of the occasional bunt. Getting an easy hit now and then would be another aim. But successful bunts, unsuccessful bunts, foul bunts or just squaring can all affect the positioning. (3) It ain't just DooDoo.

Frayed Knot May 16 2016 06:52 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

My main concern with Wright is not just the number of Ks -- already 20+% more than last year's partial season in only 70-some% of the PAs -- but the seemingly large percentage of them that are looking. I'm not quite sure specifically what to make of that (becoming more of a guess hitter?) but it's noticeable. btw, anyone know of an easy way to find K's-looking vs K's-swinging?

Ceetar May 16 2016 07:04 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

Edgy MD wrote: (1) You don't have to bunt well in order to beat an extreme shift. Adequate suffices (2) Yes, making them let up on the shift is an aim of the occasional bunt. Getting an easy hit now and then would be another aim. But successful bunts, unsuccessful bunts, foul bunts or just squaring can all affect the positioning. (3) It ain't just DooDoo. I don't know that we have data on how good Duda is as a bunter, but I bet it's not even adequate at this point. Is honing his bunting the best use of his time? 2. I doubt unsuccessful bunts are affecting the positioning. When the teams pull spray charts and see next to nothing in terms of hits on the ground to the left side, they're not going to move a guy over there based on a few times he squared or fouled out from the advance scouting reports. Every pitch he's thinking about the outside corner and squaring is one where he's not looking for a pitch to drive. You're literally giving up home runs for a few easy singles. I'm not sure what the numbers look like for 2-strikes, but I'm not convinced it's worth taking that approach even there. 3. Duda's the classic example, but yes, they shift everyone because it works. What's the max certainty you can get on getting a hit to the left side like that via bunting or what not? 80%? That's probably high. This suggests it's like 50% and probably lower for guys like Duda and other extreme shifters. Duda reaches base safely 34.3% of the time. Bottom 9, down by a run, bases empty, I want Duda swinging no matter how much they're shifting. There could be no one there but the first baseman and the pitcher and it's probably still more likely the Mets score by him swinging.

Ceetar May 16 2016 07:08 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

Frayed Knot wrote: My main concern with Wright is not just the number of Ks -- already 20+% more than last year's partial season in only 70-some% of the PAs -- but the seemingly large percentage of them that are looking. I'm not quite sure specifically what to make of that (becoming more of a guess hitter?) but it's noticeable. btw, anyone know of an easy way to find K's-looking vs K's-swinging? 17 looking, 27 swinging. I went to his play log on Fangraphs and ctrl-f for 'struck out looking'. I don't know if there is a better way. 37 and 74 in 2014.

Edgy MD May 16 2016 07:10 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

Yes, shifting works. That's why I advocate for a plan to combat it. Filtering this through a bottom-of-the-ninth scenario kind of queers the argument beyond recognition.

Ceetar May 16 2016 07:53 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

Edgy MD wrote: Yes, shifting works. That's why I advocate for a plan to combat it. Filtering this through a bottom-of-the-ninth scenario kind of queers the argument beyond recognition. Well it DEFINITELY doesn't work in the aggregate, but I was addressing the idea that if you desperately needed one hit, in one situation, if you should drop down the bunt and the answer does seem to be. No.

Edgy MD May 16 2016 07:56 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

Well, yes, your position is clear. But it wasn't and isn't an accurate reflection of the argument being made.

Frayed Knot May 16 2016 08:03 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

So 41% looking-K's so far this year as opposed to 33% in his last full(-ish) season. Might be a stat that bears watching as the season goes on. Also, not sure what the overall pct on called-v-swinging 3rd strikes is but 41% called does seem high.

Lefty Specialist May 16 2016 08:32 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

Yes, I can understand Wright getting beat by a 95 MPH fastball. But looking, I wonder if he's choosing his spots to swing more carefully due to the back, which leads to watching pitches that maybe the 2008 DW swings at. As for Duda's low BABIP it's not a matter of luck, it's a matter of the shift. That's not going to improve unless he hits it to different places. I can't tell him how to do it, but he can't make it as Ike Davis II. The shift is here, you have to adjust to it. Same goes for the Grandy Man. And if you're playing the Nats hit it to Murph, because there's always a chance for the 'Oh Murph' play.

Ceetar May 16 2016 08:35 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

Frayed Knot wrote: So 41% looking-K's so far this year as opposed to 33% in his last full(-ish) season. Might be a stat that bears watching as the season goes on. Also, not sure what the overall pct on called-v-swinging 3rd strikes is but 41% called does seem high. 81/317 for the Mets as a team. 25.5% 24.8% last year. 33% for Wright in 2007. So is a bit high right now but it'd only take 6 in a row swinging to get him to 34%. So still relatively small sample. Lefty Specialist wrote: As for Duda's low BABIP it's not a matter of luck, it's a matter of the shift. That's not going to improve unless he hits it to different places. This is demonstrably false.

d'Kong76 May 16 2016 08:45 PM Re: How to get better before Tuesday at 7 p.m.

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