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Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

Centerfield Jun 01 2016 02:52 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jun 01 2016 02:57 PM

Frayed Knot wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: We have some people here who I believe are vastly over-rating Dilson Herrera's value. Yes, it's far-fetched. Not I. It was just a thought as to why a seemingly logical player move was not being made. I guess I just don't see it as the slam-dunk logical move as other seem to - at least not unless a decision is made to put Wright on the DL and, even then, I don't think they're going to start shifting players around the infield just to give Dilson an everyday job. And if it's just for a bench role then they've already called up the guy (Kelly) who switch-hits and was hitting .400 in AAA rather than Herrera who's at .270 This appears to be directed at me. So I'll retort. Yes, I've been beating the drum for Dilson for a while. But understand that most of that was fueled by the guy I wanted him to replace. Eric Campbell fell 4 PA's short of 75, but had he qualified, his .492 OPS would have ranked him 303rd out of 306 qualifying players. So he was not literally the worst hitter in baseball, but he was pretty damn close. And this was a guy who was playing more or less every day, and batting as high as 6th! (not a condemnation of the batting order, a condemnation of the 25 man roster). Very seldom does the "anyone but him" argument work but in this case, I think it does. Herrera, Rivera. Anyone. Thankfully, Campbell is gone. Hooray! But we still have 3 injured regulars. At catcher, there's nothing we can do but play Plawecki. But for first and third, we have a number of options. 1. James Loney: Career .748 OPS. Respectable player, and even if you just look at his last 3 years, his OPS is still not bad at .730. The problem is the numbers are heading the wrong way. (.778, .716, .679). 32 years old. 2. Wilmer Flores: Career .667 OPS. 24 years old, nearly 900 AB's. Upward trending OPS. 3. Dilson Herrera: Career .690 OPS (149 AB's). Career .837 OPS in the minors. 4. Ty Kelly: Career .763 OPS in the minors. Just made his major league debut The Mets are going to go with Loney at 1st, Flores at 3rd, and Kelly batting off the bench. And so Herrera, the top hitting prospect in the organization, the one Keith Law pegged as possibly a future All-Star, the one with the highest upside, gets left out of the mix. This makes no sense to me. Why not go with the guy that might be great? Especially since we are going to need to know what we have in Herrera when Walker's contract expires? Because Neil Walker can't play a few games at 3rd? Because Herrera can't? Stunting his development is an argument for someone who is not ready. And Herrera is most definitely ready. Teams who are not in a pennant race can preserve their prospects for the future. A team that is in a tooth and nail battle for the division can't afford to give away at-bats and field an inferior team. Divisions are hard to win. You have to take every advantage you can get. The "fear of disrupting a player's rhythm" is what led to the idiotic IF lineup last year (Tejada 3rd, Flores SS, Murphy 2B). But once it was disrupted, everyone was fine. The team is 25th in the league in runs scored. They have to figure out how to get the best 8 bats in organization in the lineup every night.

Centerfield Jun 01 2016 02:55 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

But that being said, all of this may be moot, because the organization appears to have elected to give Wright a cortisone shot and hope that the guy with spinal stenosis can play through a herniated disk in his neck. Makes the Eric Campbell decision seem downright brilliant.

Vic Sage Jun 01 2016 09:51 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

CF is, as almost always, correct. Hererra has done nothing but hit at every level. A guy that has an average of .300/15hr-20hr/20-25sb/90-100r over the course of nearly 2200 minor league plate appearances (with even better numbers at AAA). Yeah, that's somebody for whom you say to that nice Walker fellow, signed only thru the end of this season, "hey Neil, would you please move over here to 3b for a while? I'm sure reminding everybody you can handle that position, the way you did a few years ago with the Pirates, will not only help the team but increase your market value when you become a FA this year." And Neil being the intelligent gentleman he is, would likely say, "of course, sir!" and skidaddle on over across the diamond. What i do know is that Loney ain't worth shit anymore, if he ever was, and giving him ABs is like flushing them down a port-o-potty.

Frayed Knot Jun 02 2016 02:34 AM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

Centerfield wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: We have some people here who I believe are vastly over-rating Dilson Herrera's value. Yes, it's far-fetched. This appears to be directed at me. So I'll retort. Actually it was directed at the idea being floated about that the reason Herrera was being kept down was as a way of manipulating his possible FA time-frame five or six years down the road. Teams obviously do that on occasion but almost exclusively with players right out of the box (when a simple two-week delay at the beginning of the season assures it) and on players who the team has reason to believe will be a major star. Herrera already has about 2/3 of a season under his belt and, while a decent prospect, probably would have rated no better than the back half of top-100 prospects lists this past winter had he still be eligible. He may turn out to be real good down the road, but right now he's a .211 ML hitter with strike-outs projecting to 130 or so over a full season. As for the rest of this stuff, I never saw this as a case of him vs Campbell. Campbell's role was that of the last man off the bench and if it wasn't him it was going to be someone similar (like Kelly whose resume is essentially identical to Soupy's) but they weren't going to put a promising 21 y/o in that job. That Campbell then started to get starts was obviously due to not just the injuries but the sequence of them. First it was as a sub for Duda when the jury was out on him being DL'd. By the time that became official Loney and Flores were on their way to help cover both 1st & 3rd. You may have decided that Dilson is already a better ML hitter than Wilmer but I don't know that the Mets agree. That leaves 5 IFs for four slots (only with Kelly now as Mr. 25th) except that now Wright is in DL limbo. So if it turns out that Wright needs DL'ing then I suspect Herrera's promotion becomes more likely. As to who gets more time at 2nd and who at 3rd, I don't think it makes a lot of difference.

cooby Jun 02 2016 01:41 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

Why not? Fifty other guys had their own thread earlier this spring

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jun 02 2016 02:02 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

Vic Sage wrote: What i do know is that Loney ain't worth shit anymore, if he ever was, and giving him ABs is like flushing them down a port-o-potty. To be fair, giving Campbell ABs is more like a port-o-potty flush. Giving them to, say, Kelly or Reynolds is like putting them in a sink with the drain partially closed. ABs in Loney's name are more like... oh, I don't know... putting them 70-30 hanging over a counter edge; it's not a terrible bet that things go okay, not great... but if things fall off, well, trash them and move on to the Herrera plan.

Fman99 Jun 02 2016 02:13 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

Vic Sage wrote: CF is, as almost always, correct. Hererra has done nothing but hit at every level. A guy that has an average of .300/15hr-20hr/20-25sb/90-100r over the course of nearly 2200 minor league plate appearances (with even better numbers at AAA). Yeah, that's somebody for whom you say to that nice Walker fellow, signed only thru the end of this season, "hey Neil, would you please move over here to 3b for a while? I'm sure reminding everybody you can handle that position, the way you did a few years ago with the Pirates, will not only help the team but increase your market value when you become a FA this year." And Neil being the intelligent gentleman he is, would likely say, "of course, sir!" and skidaddle on over across the diamond. What i do know is that Loney ain't worth shit anymore, if he ever was, and giving him ABs is like flushing them down a port-o-potty. He's got 2200 minor league plate appearances? Are we waiting for him to invent a new base or position or something? Get his ass in the lineup.

Centerfield Jun 02 2016 02:34 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

Frayed Knot wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: We have some people here who I believe are vastly over-rating Dilson Herrera's value. Yes, it's far-fetched. This appears to be directed at me. So I'll retort. Actually it was directed at the idea being floated about that the reason Herrera was being kept down was as a way of manipulating his possible FA time-frame five or six years down the road. Teams obviously do that on occasion but almost exclusively with players right out of the box (when a simple two-week delay at the beginning of the season assures it) and on players who the team has reason to believe will be a major star. Herrera already has about 2/3 of a season under his belt and, while a decent prospect, probably would have rated no better than the back half of top-100 prospects lists this past winter had he still be eligible. He may turn out to be real good down the road, but right now he's a .211 ML hitter with strike-outs projecting to 130 or so over a full season. As for the rest of this stuff, I never saw this as a case of him vs Campbell. Campbell's role was that of the last man off the bench and if it wasn't him it was going to be someone similar (like Kelly whose resume is essentially identical to Soupy's) but they weren't going to put a promising 21 y/o in that job. That Campbell then started to get starts was obviously due to not just the injuries but the sequence of them. First it was as a sub for Duda when the jury was out on him being DL'd. By the time that became official Loney and Flores were on their way to help cover both 1st & 3rd. You may have decided that Dilson is already a better ML hitter than Wilmer but I don't know that the Mets agree. That leaves 5 IFs for four slots (only with Kelly now as Mr. 25th) except that now Wright is in DL limbo. So if it turns out that Wright needs DL'ing then I suspect Herrera's promotion becomes more likely. As to who gets more time at 2nd and who at 3rd, I don't think it makes a lot of difference. Got it. I have no idea about the delaying FA angle. Largely because I don't really know how that works. I understand that Campbell was originally the 25th man, and that we had an everyday lineup set, with Flores ready as a supersub. So I was fine with Herrera not going north with the team. But during the course of the last few weeks it became evident that injuries were going to open up AB's for Campbell, and Reynolds, and Kelly. 100 PA's were lost to a guy with a .492 OPS and 2 guys who were even worse. All of this while we had a better option wasting time in LV. Such a waste. And what was the justification? First base defense. Because Campbell could play 1B. Was that worth it? Campbell is not Keith Hernandez. He's a journeyman utility guy who learned to play a serviceable 1B. How much better is he at 1B than Neil Walker? Would it have been a big dropoff? I don't know. Certainly doesn't seem like it would have been. Because on the offensive side, it's not close. Everyone knows about Dilson's upside. But even if Herrera made no progress from his prior performance, he would have surpassed Campbell's OPS by .200 points. And the continuing injuries mean more AB's will be available. It's mind-boggling why we wouldn't try the guy who might actually be good. We are in a fierce pennant race. We are struggling to score runs. This team doesn't have the luxury of going with back-end options. If you have a huge lead like the 2006 team, sure, do whatever. If you're going nowhere like all teams from earlier this decade, go ahead and baby your prospects. But on this team? Get me the best hitters now. If there is a guy in the organization that improves my chances to win by .00001%, I want him on the team. Seriously, how many times did Ty Kelly come up yesterday with a chance to do something? 1-1 game, a hit someplace might have turned that loss into a win. Is there anyone who would prefer Ty over Dilson in that spot? And what's the downside? Would sitting on the Mets bench hurt Dilson's development? I have no idea if irregular at-bats in the bigs is necessarily worse for his development than every-day at bats in LV. Do we know that for a fact? And even if it is, sorry Dilson. The team needs you now. Sack up and get ready. Look, I have no idea how good Herrera might be. He might be a bust. Who knows. But I have no idea why we wouldn't find out.

Frayed Knot Jun 02 2016 03:22 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

Centerfield wrote: I understand that Campbell was originally the 25th man, and that we had an everyday lineup set, with Flores ready as a supersub. So I was fine with Herrera not going north with the team. But during the course of the last few weeks it became evident that injuries were going to open up AB's for Campbell, and Reynolds, and Kelly. 100 PA's were lost to a guy with a .492 OPS and 2 guys who were even worse. All of this while we had a better option wasting time in LV. And I think they might have called up Herrera had the injuries not occurred in a sort of serial progression with first Duda and now Wright existing for several days in a kind of diagnosis limbo, not available but also not replaced, all while Flores was due back 'any day now'. Had they known at the beginning that this sort of 'one player short' status (is that you Ambler?) was going to exist for a two to three week stretch they might have pulled the trigger back when, but I think they were operating under the assumption that each move was to be only temporary and as a backup.

Centerfield Jun 02 2016 03:55 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

I tend to agree with that. But I think that this somewhat passive approach by the front office is not the correct one to have when you are in a fight-for-your-life pennant race. Duda is on the DL now, Wright is still not available. Loney is 1 for 9, and Wilmer is 1 for 10 since coming back. Ty Kelly went 0 for 5 yesterday and left 4 men on base. Even if it's just for a game, go get Herrera. I know the season seems like an eternity, but division races can completely turn on an AB or three. If Cespedes doesn't double off Storen in Game 2 of that Nats series last year, and Kelly Johnson doesn't HR off Strasburg, the Nats take 2 out of three and the Mets leave town up 3 games instead of 7. Those 2 AB's were huge. I think the FO needs to display a sense of urgency here.

Fman99 Jun 02 2016 04:26 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

I've had enough of "Do Or No Do There Is No" Ty Kelly, that's for sure.

Frayed Knot Jun 02 2016 10:19 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

... I think that this somewhat passive approach by the front office is not the correct one to have when you are in a fight-for-your-life pennant race. Duda is on the DL now, Wright is still not available. Loney is 1 for 9, and Wilmer is 1 for 10 since coming back. Ty Kelly went 0 for 5 yesterday and left 4 men on base. Even if it's just for a game, go get Herrera. OK fine, but if we're going to cite small sample sizes, then Kelly & Loney were both hitting much better than Herrera in AAA [.391 & .342 vs .280] while both Loney & Flores have more and better ML experience on their resumes. So while Dilson is certainly the better long-term solution as compared to Kelly or Loney, and maybe even Flores (jury still out on that one), it's not like promoting him w/his .211 career ML BA was going to be any more of a sure-fire/short-term remedy to the offensive woes of the last few days. Hell, Conforto hit a buck-sixty during the month of May and it's not like any of us want to send him down in favor of [find random hot minor league OF] in order to solve our scoring drought. I have no idea about the delaying FA angle. Largely because I don't really know how that works. Basically a player needs six full seasons of service time before he is eligible for FA status. A full season, for accounting purposes, is 182 days long although one does get credit for a full year with I believe it's 170 days or more on the big league roster. Dilson, through his several stints across 2014-15, has accumulated 119 days to date or about 2/3 of a full year. So the Mets would have to limit him to less than 1/3 of a season this year (and make sure they count the days right to get it exact) in order to make sure that they'd retain control of him for six years beyond this one instead of just five. In this case that means mid-late August call-up at the earliest. But even all that assumes that once up he's up for good, and that he's destined to be the type of player where that extra year (or not) is going to be of crucial importance, or that he's even going to be a Met five or six years down the road. For the Kris Bryants of the world -- guys from a major college program who come via the very top of the draft (#2 overall) and arrive as essentially fully-formed players -- this makes sense, by delaying his call up last season just until mid-April the Cubs assured themselves that he'd be just short of a full season at the end of last year and therefore just short again six years later. They'll still pay through the nose for that seventh year they gain, but at least they know he can't leave on them. Bottom line: Dilson, barely out of his teens at his ML debut, simply isn't that type of prospect and wasn't about to have that same out of the chute start to his career to where manipulating his playing time by two or three months this year makes any sense for a possible hypothetical situation early next decade.

Centerfield Jun 15 2016 04:25 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

Hey guys. Just checking in. Ya know, just keeping it real over here in the big LV. Couldn't help but notice that your second baseman is now hurt. Been hurt for a couple of days. Probably not in the lineup tonight. Just wondering if we're still sticking to that "Position changes are very hard" line of thinking. Also read that David might opt for neck surgery which might end his season. Was also wondering if that might change your thinking on what to do with Walker after he gets back. Anyway, I'll just be here. Hitting .372 over my last 10. OPS-ing 1.036 in June. I'm sure you guys are fine offensively, but you know, if you need something, I'm just a short phone call away.

d'Kong76 Jun 15 2016 04:41 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

Looks like he's toothache-free too!

Centerfield Jun 15 2016 04:50 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

Hey Dilson, .372 over your last ten? How adorable. Try .459 bitches! And my OPS in June? 1.350. If anyone should be getting the call, it's me!

Centerfield Jun 15 2016 04:56 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

Five HR's? For the year? Dilson hit 8 HR's in just the month of May alone. What loser hits 5 HR's for the year?

Centerfield Jun 15 2016 04:56 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

Um. 2/3 of the Mets lineup yesterday combined for 5 HR's on the year.

Centerfield Jun 15 2016 04:57 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

lololololololololololololololololol

themetfairy Jun 15 2016 04:59 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

Why not both?

Centerfield Jun 17 2016 01:51 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

Enjoy Vegas boys! I'm out! Suckers!

soupcan Jun 17 2016 02:06 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

Centerfield wrote: Even if they dont play him, they should call Nimmo up just to give him access to the MLBPA dental plan.

Edgy MD Jun 17 2016 02:13 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

You're on the 40, you're paying union dues and getting union bennies.

soupcan Jun 17 2016 02:27 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

Edgy MD wrote: You're on the 40, you're paying union dues and getting union bennies. So that smile is a choice for him? Oof.

cooby Jun 17 2016 11:22 PM Re: Seriously? You're giving Dilson Herrera his own thread?

soupcan wrote: Centerfield wrote: Even if they dont play him, they should call Nimmo up just to give him access to the MLBPA dental plan. lol