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How can we be this bad?

Centerfield Jun 08 2016 02:03 PM

It seems impossible but the offense is as bad as it was in the first part of 2015 again. As of today, the Mets are 28th out of 30 teams in runs scored. Everything was fine in April (they were 10th) but since May they have scored fewer runs than Atlanta. I remember looking at the Mets numbers with RISP and thinking this can't possibly go on. And I was absolutely right. Eventually they stopped putting runners in scoring position. Sure, there are injuries, but even with that it seems like we should be better than 28th. Looking at the stats, Cespedes and Walker are actually having good years. Conforto, I know, has been slumping, but overall he's got an OPS of .778 and that's not terrible. Loney, in a short time, has been better than expected. The obvious culprit is the catcher position, 3 guys with sub .600 OPS. Cabrera, after starting hot, has cooled significantly and has a .689 OPS. And Curtis Granderson is hitting .204 in June. Lost more than 100 pts off of his 2015 OPS. The problem is you can't really upgrade the catcher, because you can't block d'Arnaud. You can't trade for a 3B, because we expect Wright to come back. And Lucas, you have to figure, will be close to 100% when healed. I don't know. I'm out of ideas. I campaigned for Dilson, but Flores is hitting well since he's gotten the starting role.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jun 08 2016 02:21 PM Re: How can we be this bad?

It's very much like last year. d'Arnaud & Wright cannot stay healthy, Plawecki gets a golden opportunity and can't run with it. In some ways it's even worse than last year because a mighty slugger in Doodoo is also out, Grandyman isn't reaching base nearly enough and the minor injuries/unavailability of Flores/Lagares/Cespy exacerbated a bad situation. And don't kid yourself on Conforto. He's been awful. That .689 is a combo of 1.118 in March/April and about half that in May/June. Neither he nor Grandy are hitting LHP even a little, highlighting the missing righties. It's probably still too early for radical fixes but Zimmo is having a pretty good year. Wouldn't be aggressively crazy to try and get Conforto going in Vegas for a few weeks, get Zim up and bat him leadoff, and drop Grandy to Conforto territory, 6th or 7th in the lineup. You might also better balance the L-R disparity by trading De Aza and finding a reserve pinch-hitting vs. lefties role for Travis Taijeron.

Edgy MD Jun 08 2016 02:28 PM Re: How can we be this bad?

Yeah, you're this bad for a stretch every year. The trick is the response. Do you grind it out, shake up the lineup, or shake up the roster? If the last one, do you do it from within and without. The bizarre reality that they are hitting more homers than ever before, but scoring fewer runs than they have since the Torre era, suggests this is at a large level foundational, and I think they need to approach this foundationally. The Mets need a couple of contact hitters.

Frayed Knot Jun 08 2016 02:35 PM Re: How can we be this bad?

Obviously the main culprits are the bats who aren't there (Wright, Duda, d'Arnaud) and the bats who currently aren't hitting (Cespedes, Conforto) which leaves us with ... not much. When you're getting a combined (approx) .205/.285/.330 from the catching & 1B position you're starting out in a deep hole. I do also think there's a bad luck factor involved that has to at least partially turn around at some point. As bad as their BA is (.230) is comically worse in run-scoring situations. It drops to .223 w/men on and then further to .215 when those runners are in scoring position, and a stunning [u:3qbplwh2].168[/u:3qbplwh2] w/2 out + RiSP. They hit .293 w/2 outs and the bases empty, but a ridiculous .189 with 2 outs and runners on base. It's almost like they sabotage things so as to make sure that the few hits they are getting go to waste. KC and I were briefly bitching about GiDPs in one of the IGTs. Now you'd figure that a team that Ks as much as this one (3rd highest in NL) and makes as little contact (BA 2nd lowest) would at least have the good fortune of avoiding DPs, but instead their total (41) is only slightly below the league average of 44, indicating a perverse talent for hitting balls hard right at people at the exact wrong moment. BABiP (BA on balls in play) is also absurdly low -- 2nd worst in NL, 21 points below lg avg. Some of this stuff has to get at least a little bit better, even if only by accident.

Vic Sage Jun 08 2016 02:43 PM Re: How can we be this bad?

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: It's very much like last year. d'Arnaud & Wright cannot stay healthy, Plawecki gets a golden opportunity and can't run with it. In some ways it's even worse than last year because a mighty slugger in Doodoo is also out, Grandyman isn't reaching base nearly enough and the minor injuries/unavailability of Flores/Lagares/Cespy exacerbated a bad situation. And don't kid yourself on Conforto. He's been awful. That .689 is a combo of 1.118 in March/April and about half that in May/June. Neither he nor Grandy are hitting LHP even a little, highlighting the missing righties. It's probably still too early for radical fixes but Zimmo is having a pretty good year. Wouldn't be aggressively crazy to try and get Conforto going in Vegas for a few weeks, get Zim up and bat him leadoff, and drop Grandy to Conforto territory, 6th or 7th in the lineup. You might also better balance the L-R disparity by trading De Aza and finding a reserve pinch-hitting vs. lefties role for Travis Taijeron. That's weird. I had all the exact same thoughts on the train in this morning. Send Conforto down til he gets his stroke back (ditto Plawecki); bring Baron Zemo up for his OB skills at the top of the order and Monell to platoon with Rivera; dump deAza (or at least send down Robles or Henderson) and bring up Taijeron, who i've liked since he hit the cover off the ball in ST and has continued to do in AAA; and PLEASE send down Kelly and lets get Hererra up here. Nimmo/Lagares (LF/CF) Herrera (2b) Walker (1b or 3b) Cespedes (CF/LF) Granderson /Taijeron (RF) Flores (3b or 1b) Monell /Rivera (C) Cabrera (SS)

Centerfield Jun 08 2016 02:44 PM Re: How can we be this bad?

Certainly seems like the Mets have been unlucky. But even if you adjust for luck, where would they fall? 25? 24? That's still not good. And we are in June so this is not a small sample size. I keep wondering about this BABIP. We keep saying it has to get better and that we are unlucky. But we also have 2 hitters (Granderson and Conforto) that are completely incapable of doing anything but pull the ball. So if all of the infielders are on one side, and the hitter keeps hitting to that side, then we should expect the BABIP to remain low, no? (At least for those 2 guys anyway)

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jun 08 2016 02:47 PM Re: How can we be this bad?

Vic Sage wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: It's very much like last year. d'Arnaud & Wright cannot stay healthy, Plawecki gets a golden opportunity and can't run with it. In some ways it's even worse than last year because a mighty slugger in Doodoo is also out, Grandyman isn't reaching base nearly enough and the minor injuries/unavailability of Flores/Lagares/Cespy exacerbated a bad situation. And don't kid yourself on Conforto. He's been awful. That .689 is a combo of 1.118 in March/April and about half that in May/June. Neither he nor Grandy are hitting LHP even a little, highlighting the missing righties. It's probably still too early for radical fixes but Zimmo is having a pretty good year. Wouldn't be aggressively crazy to try and get Conforto going in Vegas for a few weeks, get Zim up and bat him leadoff, and drop Grandy to Conforto territory, 6th or 7th in the lineup. You might also better balance the L-R disparity by trading De Aza and finding a reserve pinch-hitting vs. lefties role for Travis Taijeron. That's weird. I had all the exact same thoughts on the train in this morning. Send Conforto down til he gets his stroke back (ditto Plawecki); bring Baron Zemo up for his OB skills at the top of the order and Monell to platoon with Rivera; dump deAza (or at least send down Robles or Henderson) and bring up Taijeron, who i've liked since he hit the cover off the ball in ST and has continued to do in AAA; and PLEASE send down Kelly and lets get Hererra up here. Nimmo/Lagares (LF/CF) Herrera (2b) Walker (1b or 3b) Cespedes (CF/LF) Granderson /Taijeron (RF) Flores (3b or 1b) Monell /Rivera (C) Cabrera (SS) As you always say, JCL is, as almost always, right.

Frayed Knot Jun 08 2016 03:03 PM Re: How can we be this bad?

Centerfield wrote: Certainly seems like the Mets have been unlucky. But even if you adjust for luck, where would they fall? 25? 24? That's still not good. And we are in June so this is not a small sample size. Our BA/OBA aren't good overall so, no, with better luck we'd still be a HR-reliant squad. But the ridiculous gap between being the HR hitting-est team in NYM history and yet the lowest scoring one since the Ford administration would be shrunken somewhat if even only slightly more fortunate. I keep wondering about this BABIP. We keep saying it has to get better and that we are unlucky. But we also have 2 hitters (Granderson and Conforto) that are completely incapable of doing anything but pull the ball. So if all of the infielders are on one side, and the hitter keeps hitting to that side, then we should expect the BABIP to remain low, no? (At least for those 2 guys anyway) Shifts are everywhere man, and while we might be more shift-venerable than some squads, I don't know that we particularly unique in this area and in this era.