Jul 01 2016 09:18 AM
Re: Armando v. Jeurys (Split from 6/30 IGT)
I mean, except for one mistake you're not hitting these out. Familia to righties (via Mark Simon)
Master Index of Archived Threads
Armando v. Jeurys (Split from 6/30 IGT)
| soupcan Jun 30 2016 09:42 PM |
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In the classic Armando Benitez debates of the earlier part of this century I was a devoted follower of the arguments put forth by the respected Hall of Fame poster, Centerfield.
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| Frayed Knot Jun 30 2016 09:46 PM Re: IGT 06/30 CHC@NYM |
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-- responding to Soupcan --
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| soupcan Jun 30 2016 09:55 PM Re: IGT 06/30 CHC@NYM |
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Yeah but if Benitez didn't blow so many of those games I don't think people would've cared about the drama. Benitez -v- Familia in the World Series was more like an expectation of failure coming true as opposed to just being surprised that Jeurys couldn't handle it. If that makes sense.
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| Frayed Knot Jul 01 2016 06:55 AM IGT 06/30 CHC@NYM |
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Only problem with that statement is that it tosses out as a baseline, as if already established fact, that Benitez blew more games than Familia (or at least at a faster rate since JF hasn't been the 'Established Closer' for all that long yet). I'm not sure if that's actually true or merely an assumed 'truth'. One of the problems with judging closers is that fans come to expect perfection, that anything other than the 1-2-3 quick 'n easy wrap-up represents some sort of failure and/or character flaw in your team's guy and that shirley (and, yes, I just called you Shirley) other teams' closers don't put their fans through the emotional wringer that our guy puts us through. But, while by definition some teams have to employ below average closers, the "normal" rate of saves is lower than what I think most fans believe. I did a thing a couple years ago where I tracked, under a certain set of conditions, league-wide save attempts in attempt to establish norms for closers. Turned out that about 1 save attempt in every 7 are blown and that failure rate grows to more than 1 in 5 when talking about those with 1-run cushions (saves with 2-run leads were blown about 10% of the time, w/3-runs the failure rate fell to 3-4%). And the 1-2-3 innings that fans think should be routine are the exception rather than the rule, occurring barely 1/3 of the time. Maybe if I get some time I'll look back through the stats and do an Armando vs Jeurys comparison to see who looks better when viewed through these same conditions. I don't claim it to be a perfect measure of which guy is better, but it's a start. My initial reaction is to suspect that Familia probably comes out looking better than Armando in this comparison, but only slightly.
Again, it makes sense through the lens of preconceived assumptions and feelings.
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| soupcan Jul 01 2016 08:24 AM Re: IGT 06/30 CHC@NYM |
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THAT would be interesting. I'd be curious to know that.
Right, and that was the whole debate about Benitez - perception versus reality. With Jeurys I just get the feeling that he's got something Armando didnt have. Whether it can be measured or not. It seems like he gets himself in situations where the blow up is coming and then...he doesnt let it happen.
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| Ceetar Jul 01 2016 08:46 AM Re: Armando v. Jeurys (Split from 6/30 IGT) |
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Familia is a much better pitcher than Benitez, and that's really all there is to it. Familia throws a sinker, Benitez threw a straight fastball. One's prone to squaring up and knocking out of the park, one isn't so much.
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| d'Kong76 Jul 01 2016 09:12 AM Re: Armando v. Jeurys (Split from 6/30 IGT) |
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Who was the guy that used to send oldoriginaljb off muttering to
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| Edgy MD Jul 01 2016 09:13 AM Re: Armando v. Jeurys (Split from 6/30 IGT) |
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Benitez had a splitter and a sinker, although he didn't really feature them until he went on to the Marlins.
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| d'Kong76 Jul 01 2016 09:17 AM Re: Armando v. Jeurys (Split from 6/30 IGT) |
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Looper, right! I was thinking of oojb the other day when I was thinking of
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| Ceetar Jul 01 2016 09:18 AM Re: Armando v. Jeurys (Split from 6/30 IGT) |
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I mean, except for one mistake you're not hitting these out. Familia to righties (via Mark Simon)
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| Zvon Jul 01 2016 10:32 AM Re: Armando v. Jeurys (Split from 6/30 IGT) |
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I suffered symptoms of the Benitez Syndrome last night, thought a relapse was coming on. It passed.
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| Edgy MD Jul 01 2016 11:21 AM Re: Armando v. Jeurys (Split from 6/30 IGT) |
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Not for nothing, but he had a 1.80 ERA in the World Series, and a 0.61 ERA in the post-season as a whole. Opponents had a .477 WHIP against him. You can hardly ask for anything more.
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| Frayed Knot Jul 01 2016 11:45 AM Re: IGT 06/30 CHC@NYM |
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I'll try to give it a go next week sometime although the biggest problem is going to be sample size so I'm not sure how telling a comparison is going to be. Familia has been 'The Closer' for just over one season now while Benitez manned the primary closing duties here for some four-plus seasons. In any case, I'm just we don't have some other pens working for us over the last few days. The Rangers lost to the Yanx yesterday on a walk-off passed-ball. And that's just one day after they coughed up one run in the 8th then six more in the 9th to lose (9-7) a game they had tucked in their pocket the whole day. Then there's the Rays who served up an 8 run 9th inning to the Tigers on Thursday to lose a game 10-7
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| Centerfield Jul 01 2016 02:54 PM Re: Armando v. Jeurys (Split from 6/30 IGT) |
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Familia seems like he is a lot better. In fact, better than anyone. I think he's the best we've ever had.
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| Frayed Knot Jul 01 2016 04:09 PM Re: Armando v. Jeurys (Split from 6/30 IGT) |
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Guile? Benitez had guile?
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| Frayed Knot Jul 31 2016 07:15 PM Re: IGT 06/30 CHC@NYM |
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OK so I semi-promised to get back to this topic at some point - and it only took me a month. A bit of background first: Since the original discussion here kind of centers on how Jeurys the closer compares to Armando the closer, it made the most sense to compare them during those times when each was the team’s main closer. In Benitez’s case that meant I took his data starting in mid-1999 when he took over that job from Franco through the 2002 season - and, yes, that means I skipped his final half season for the Mets in 2003. I did so because without question he sucked during that stretch and everyone knows it. And while that makes it seem like I’m putting my thumb on the scales in his favor (a he’d certainly look worse if that portion was included) a big part of this it to see how Benitez fared even during the time he was saving most of his games and yet still getting tons of abuse from the fans. Those with many years here know specifically what I’m talking about; it was never enough that he saved the game but how did he make you FEEEEEL while doing so. That’s a large part of what reignited the discussion. So this pits Armando when he was at his best for a nearly 3-1/2 year span vs what Familia is doing during his period as the team’s ‘Final Boss’, the beginning of 2015 through to the present. So what did I look at? Well first their overall stats for those spans with all the usual categories. The other thing I did was to break out just those appearances where they entered the game in what we now know of as standard closer usage: one-inning only, only with a 1, 2, or 3 runs lead, and only to start the inning fresh w/bases empty and none out. The reason I went there, aside from the idea that it tends to ‘standardize’ all closers stats, was that I had a baseline to compare it all to as back in 2013 & 2014 when I wanted to find out the overall success of closers (because I was curious and because I’m a nerd) I tracked how ML closers as a group did in those ‘standard’ save opps. Specifically I was tracking three things: - was it a one, two, or three run lead they were trying to protect? Obviously it’s easier to close out a game with a bigger lead than a smaller so you want to account for each. - did the closer protect the lead or blow the save by allowing the tying and/or go-ahead runs (how the game eventually turned out is irrelevant, only the success or not of the save mattered) - and was the save a ‘Perfect’ 1-2-3 inning, or was there some degree of drama involved? So between the overall stats for each plus the situational saves breakdown we can contrast Familia & Benitez to each other and also to my generated league-wide norms and at least get some idea of how the two compare. OK, so with that overly-long intro out of the way, what did I find out? Mainly I found that both guys are/were pretty darn good … and are/were pretty darn comparable. FAMILIA: All appearances 2015-present 127 Games, 4-5; 2.33 ERA; 126.2 IP; 103 H; 33 ER; 6 HR; 41 BB; 135 K; 1.13 WHIP BENITEZ: mid-1999 thru end of 2002 247 Games; 15-9; 2.81 ERA; 255.2 IP; 167 H; 80 ER; 31 HR; 123 BB; 339 K; 1.13 WHIP The coincidence that JF has made right about half as many appearances as AB did makes comparison a bit easier. Familia has a large edge in HRs allowed and also walks. But this shows that he also misses fewer bats as his strike-out rate is lower (despite pitching in a K-happy era) and his hit rate higher. Their WHiP rates are near identical (the hits on the one side balancing out the walks on the other) but advantage Jeurys in ERA with his nearly 1/2 R/G edge ... or maybe not so much of an advantage since, although it’s only been 15 years between the two careers, the ’99-’02 era Armando pitched in was the biggest offensive era since at least the 1930s and maybe ever. As a result, Benitez’s WHiP was about 20% lower than his era while Familia’s more like 15% better than his. A small difference but we’re pretty much talking about small differences here. Same with ERA as Familia is putting up an ERA that is not quite 1/2 run better (0.48) than Benitez but is doing so in an era where overall ERA is better by almost that same amount -- ERA for 2016-16 = ~4.05; ERA for 2000-2002 = 4.48 (0.43 difference) -- which effectively wipes out that gap almost entirely. As for those specific save situations as detailed above, here’s what I found back in 2013-14 for league-wide norms of all standard 1-inning saves: Overall save success = 86.9% Saves with a 1 run lead = 78.8% successful 2 run saves = 89.8% successful 3 run saves = 96.4% successful The Shorthand version of all those numbers: ML closers blow a lead they’ve been given about one time out of every seven chances. Broken down further: slightly more than 1 in 5 one-run leads are blown, about 1 in every 10 two-run leads, and very very few (approx 1 in 28) three-run leads. And, no matter what the size of the lead, the ‘Perfect’ 1-2-3 inning occurs a bit more than 1/3 of the time (36.3%) - a rate which I’ve long suspected is below where most fans think it is (or think it should be). As for how our boys compare to those norms and each other (and, again, these aren't ALL save attempts but are rather just those saves which fit the standard one-inning save definition): FAMILIA: Overall Save % = 93.0% (66 of 71) 1-run games = 85.7% (24 of 28) 2-run games = 100% (27 of 27) 3-run games = 93.8% (15 of 16) ... remember the 'Justin Upton' game? ‘PERFECT’ = 43.7% BENITEZ: Overall Save % = 91.5% (119 of 130) 1-run saves = 87.9% (51 of 58) 2-run saves = 97.4% (36 of 37) 3-run saves = 91.4% (32 of 35) ‘PERFECT’ = 36.2% Slight advantage Familia overall and a somewhat larger edge in spinning those drama-free 1-2-3 saves. But Armando was a shade better in those saves where there was no margin for error and also had a larger percentage of his save opps (44% to 40%) that were of the one-run variety. Both guys topped the league norms in overall save conversion and in each of the individual categories with the exception of Benitez and three-run blown saves where he was high, and in ‘Perfect’ saves where he was right around average. So, final conclusion? This winds up right about how I thought it might, maybe an edge to Familia but a small one and one he’ll have to keep up for another two full seasons in order to ‘match’ what Armando did during his time here. Comments, rebuttals, complaints, corrections, and just about everything else short of overly-ripe fruit is, as always, welcome.
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| Nymr83 Aug 01 2016 02:01 PM Re: Armando v. Jeurys (Split from 6/30 IGT) |
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I hold the 2 homers a week apart in September 2001 against him more than any postseason failings.
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| Edgy MD Aug 01 2016 02:37 PM Re: Armando v. Jeurys (Split from 6/30 IGT) |
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And he did as much as anybody to put them in the position for those games to matter. Pitching and pitching and pitching, carrying his team as best as he could, day in and day out.
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