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The RiSP Watch

Frayed Knot Jul 30 2016 12:45 PM

Maybe somebody can actually invent a RiSP-Watch, it would strap around your arm and tally failures between 7 and 10 PM every night. When the fact of the Mets' comically (though not really all that funny) bad prowess at hitting with runners in scoring position started becoming an ongoing story, common sense told us that it was only a matter of time before 'regression to the mean' took over and those horrid numbers would begin to at least start creeping back toward average-ness, even if that average was nothing more than the overall sucky 2016 team BA. And yet somehow they've managed to defy all logic and things are now regressing from the mean by heading the other way. Over the last five games they're now a stunning 5 for 50 w/RiSP (with only 3 of those 5 actually knocking in a run). I mean sure that level of suckitude is just a small sample, but consider that even our 'normal' level of suck in those games would produce around 12 hits in those 50 ABs rather than five and it's pretty obvious to guess at what kind of a difference that would make over five games (four losses) that were all one-run games in the 8th inning or later. So while the league as a whole tends to hit w/RiSP at about the same rate as they do normally [Lg BA = .252, BA w/RiSP = .253] the Mets are currently hitting 36 points worse than their already league-worst average [BA = .238, BA w/RiSP = .202] and that's before you even bring up the more selective 2-outs w/RiSP number of One Freakin' Sixty Four!! The booth brought up another stat last night showing that the Mets are tied for last (with the Pirates) in the odd stat of having two or more hits in an inning this season without scoring a run - 58 times. The next bit of info I'm looking for is how often they've scored in an inning after getting the leadoff runner on. Digging through the interwebs I've found that overall averages for that stat traditionally hover around the 35-40% range. I'm sure it wouldn't surprise anyone if the 2016 Mets are far lower than that, and then lower still if Granderson solo HRs are removed from the equation.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jul 30 2016 01:38 PM Re: The RiSP Watch

I haven't looked this up but would bet you that Neil Walker has the lowest slugging percentage among guys with 16 homers, maybe ever. Only 7 xbhs that aren't HRs, and only 7 HRs since May.

d'Kong76 Jul 30 2016 01:39 PM Re: The RiSP Watch

I had a dream last night about starting this thread. Weird.

Frayed Knot Jul 30 2016 02:52 PM Re: The RiSP Watch

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I haven't looked this up but would bet you that Neil Walker has the lowest slugging percentage among guys with 16 homers, maybe ever. Only 7 xbhs that aren't HRs, and only 7 HRs since May. Not even the lowest among guys with 16 or more HRs currently, although he's pretty close to the bottom. Eugenio Suarez of Cincy (I had to look up which team he was with) has 17 HRs with a .413 Slugging Avg is just below Walker's .419 Slugging Avg. And some big name guys are surprisingly close, starting with McCutcheon [15 HRs, .414 SLG], a couple of Nationals: Bryce Harper [20, .449] & Danny Espinosa [17, .422]. Oh yeah, and some guy named Curtis Granderson [16, .436] After Walker hit his 9 HRs in April I remember thinking that there was a decent chance he wouldn't hit another 9 the rest of the year. He'll probably break that mark but not by a lot.

Frayed Knot Jul 30 2016 09:03 PM Re: The RiSP Watch

A few quick calculations here as I dive even further down this rabbit hole of an obsession concerning this team's pitiful hitting with runners on. If the 2016 Mets were to hit with RiSP just like the 2016 Mets hit otherwise -- not exactly a high bar to clear seeing as how they're DFL in the NL in BA at .238 -- their 148 hits w/RiSP would turn into 174. Taking that figure and using their present production of 1.486 Runs per RiSP-AB (220 runs produced by those 148 hits) the new figure would result in an extra 39 runs scored over the course of the season to this point. That alone creates about four extra wins on average, turning the current 53-49 record into more like 57-45; the 7.5 games back into 3.5; and the current 84-win pace for the full season into 90 And that's not even the worst of it, because not only do they hit less often with RiSP but they hit a larger pct of singles in those ABs than their usual (almost 70% instead of 63.1%) with far fewer 2Bs (16.2% instead of 19%) & HRs (12.8% instead of 16.4%). So if those extra hits were in the same proportion as what they produce normally then the runs scored increase would logically get even larger. Taking just their bases loaded situations as an example. Currently they're 15-for-73 (a .205 BA, actually a notch above other RiSP ABs) in bases-loaded w/RiSP situations, but 12 of those 15 are singles. So again, simply by applying their 2016 'normal' rates to those 73 bases-loaded ABs not only would they have an extra 2.4 hits but those hits would be distributed with 1 fewer single mixed in with between 2 & 3 more doubles and between 1 & 2 more HRs. That change alone could produce an extra 10 runs.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jul 30 2016 09:11 PM Re: The RiSP Watch

Yeah thats sort of what i was getting at with Walker. Hes basically a singles hitter who gets into one every so often. Hits 4th and 5th way too much, would be better suited 8 or 7

Frayed Knot Jul 30 2016 10:12 PM Re: The RiSP Watch

Well yeah, that he's hitting in the middle of the order says more about the absence of DooDoo & Dabid and the back-sliding of d'Arnaud & Conforto. But his singles & HRs dichotomy is sort of a separate problem. Walker is actually one of the few regulars whose RiSP numbers more or less resemble his overall 2016 stats [717 OPS vs 740] It's the rest of the team whose 717 overall OPS plunges to [u:3eyknf4r]597[/u:3eyknf4r] w/RiSP.

smg58 Jul 30 2016 10:58 PM Re: The RiSP Watch

We've discussed this before. It's plagued the team more than once in the past couple of seasons, and I just don't see an obvious explanation for it. I can't imagine that they are taking a different approach in these situations -- and if they are, they should immediately start doing the opposite of what they've been doing -- but part of it may be than a run of poor results leads to some overthinking at the plate which leads to even worse results. It's possible that the best remedy is to just relax, but the catch-22 is that relaxing will be much easier when they get some timely hits.

Frayed Knot Aug 02 2016 12:42 PM Re: The RiSP Watch

And coming on the heels of the 'clutch' 3 for 9 w/RiSP performance on Sunday, they reverted back to their standard 1-for-7 w/11 LOB last night - the only hit being Reynold's HR.