Forum Home

Master Index of Archived Threads


Can-Do Attitude

TransMonk
Aug 03 2016 02:46 PM

The optimists are up. Give me a reason (or three) why you think the Mets can make the playoffs this season.

I'll start: The average opponent's winning percentage in Mets games remaining: .474

18 games against last place teams (ARI, ATL, MIN, CIN)
13 games against below .500 but not last place teams (SDP and PHI)
15 games against above .500 but not first place teams (NYY, DET, MIA, STL)
10 games against first place teams (WAS and SF)

A few opportunities left to make head-to-head hay vs. WAS, MIA and STL...but also plenty of opportunities to beat up on the little guys.

Edgy MD
Aug 03 2016 02:50 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Young hitters are asserting themselves. The last two games anyhow.

Longer for young hitters named "Flores."

Mets Guy in Michigan
Aug 03 2016 02:54 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

We have great starting pitching. That goes far. And with slightly improved offense -- like more than one run -- that will go far.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Aug 03 2016 02:57 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Jay Bruce motivated by the potential to become the team's all-time run leader among guys who wear No. 19 (he needs 18).

Edgy MD
Aug 03 2016 03:03 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Ryan Church? Roger CedeƱo?

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Aug 03 2016 03:06 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Cedeno

Zvon
Aug 03 2016 03:27 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

The Mets could make a mad run, string a few winning streaks, end up 5 games up when the dust settles, because this is baseball.

Ceetar
Aug 03 2016 03:36 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Mets have been unlucky and the National have been lucky. d'Arnaud will round into form and make all the difference. The RISP numbers will round out and the Mets will start scoring in bunches again. They'll rattle off 8/11 and 15/21 somewhere along the way into that first Nats series in September.

Mets will close ground and pounce during the final 6 Nats games. That's where it's at.

TransMonk
Aug 03 2016 04:13 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

I'll admit, once Yo gets healthy, the Mets now have A LOT of offensive potential.

I hope 5 days of DHing gets him right.

d'Kong76
Aug 03 2016 04:13 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Aug 03 2016 04:53 PM

Ya don't gotta believe, but it helps if you do...
[fimg=550]https://b6c18f286245704fe3e9-05e2055f4cd9122af02914269431c9f6.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/5623760_ya-gotta-believe-again_t4b8c0604.jpg[/fimg]

Zvon
Aug 03 2016 04:32 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Walker could have another April and a half. Bruce could go on to drive in 120. Conforto could become Stan The Man for a few months. The lack of plating RISP could balance out as it should, which means we will be doing a shitload of that from here on out. This can all happen because it's baseball. So I always hope, until the fat lady gets right in my face.

Centerfield
Aug 03 2016 05:16 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Totally possible. Maybe not likely, but definitely possible.

We don't have the rotation we did last year, but if everyone gets healthy and starts hitting, this is not bad:

1. Reyes SS
2. Walker 2B
3. Bruce RF
4. Cespedes LF
5. Duda 1B
6. Conforto CF
7. Flores 3B
8. d'Arnaud C

Sprinkle in Loney and Cabrera (if he comes back), Johnson, Nimmo, de Aza. Still need a RH hitter off the bench, maybe waiver move?

Rotation is solid, if not dominant, and the bullpen is good enough. You can add waiver guys there too. Let's slug our way to the title.

TransMonk
Aug 03 2016 05:21 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Centerfield wrote:
Still need a RH hitter off the bench, maybe waiver move?


Maybe this guy?

[fimg=500]http://www3.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Colorado+Rockies+v+New+York+Mets+MMTS_f1y9Esl.jpg[/fimg]

d'Kong76
Aug 03 2016 05:24 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

They're only a game and half out of the wildcard (of course, the push should be
towards the division) and they have 7 games against the Fishsticks and 7 against
the Gnats. There's two months left, they can be in and out of it a half dozen times
in that stretch... just win tonight.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Aug 03 2016 05:35 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Duda is this year's d'Arnaud.

Cespedes is this year's Cespedes.

Centerfield
Aug 03 2016 05:54 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote:
Duda is this year's d'Arnaud.

Cespedes is this year's Cespedes.


Conforto is this year's Conforto.

TransMonk
Aug 03 2016 05:59 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

As long as Bruce isn't last year's Bruce...his 2015 Aug and Sept stats were stinky!

Centerfield
Aug 03 2016 06:06 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

It's crazy that they are this close with all that has gone wrong this season:

1. Lost their first baseman
2. Lost their shortstop
3. Lost their thirdbaseman for the year
4. Lost their catcher (found him again, thankfully)
5. Lost their best defensive CF
6. Primary backup OF'er was terrible
7. Conforto played so bad he was demoted
8. Lost Harvey for the season
9. Employed the services of Eric Campbell!
10. Wheeler had a setback
11. Plenty of bone spurs to go around
12. Reached historic levels of futility with RISP

And meanwhile everything has come up roses for Washington.

All of that changes now. For the next three months, everything goes our way, and Washington comes to realize that 2016 is not their year. It's the year the Baseball Gods decided to fuck with them.

Frayed Knot
Aug 04 2016 12:44 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

TransMonk wrote:

18 games against last place teams (ARI, ATL, MIN, CIN)
13 games against below .500 but not last place teams (SDP and PHI).


All this optimism forgets one thing: We lose to bad teams!

Lefty Specialist
Aug 04 2016 02:52 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

St. Louis, Washington and Miami could be involved in a three-way plane crash.

Outside of that, eh, I got nothin'.

And meanwhile everything has come up roses for Washington.

And that explains why they're 8 1/2 up on the Mets and pulling away.

Ashie62
Aug 04 2016 11:38 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

I thought the SP and RP pitching would be better.

Edgy MD
Aug 05 2016 03:39 AM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Third best ERA in the league despite Harvey never being right, Wheeler never arriving, and Mejia getting banned for life. I don't see how we could have asked for more.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Aug 05 2016 07:14 AM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote:
Duda is this year's d'Arnaud.

Cespedes is this year's Cespedes.


Yeah, so...

Ashie62
Aug 05 2016 09:24 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Centerfield wrote:
It's crazy that they are this close with all that has gone wrong this season:

1. Lost their first baseman
2. Lost their shortstop
3. Lost their thirdbaseman for the year
4. Lost their catcher (found him again, thankfully)
5. Lost their best defensive CF
6. Primary backup OF'er was terrible
7. Conforto played so bad he was demoted
8. Lost Harvey for the season
9. Employed the services of Eric Campbell!
10. Wheeler had a setback
11. Plenty of bone spurs to go around
12. Reached historic levels of futility with RISP

Well done.

And meanwhile everything has come up roses for Washington.

All of that changes now. For the next three months, everything goes our way, and Washington comes to realize that 2016 is not their year. It's the year the Baseball Gods decided to fuck with them.

Centerfield
Aug 09 2016 05:51 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

We can still do this. Plenty of season left.

Turn around starts today.

Centerfield
Aug 10 2016 01:30 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Fuck it man. They fucking suck.

Benjamin Grimm
Aug 10 2016 02:00 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

I wish I had gone back to Peru.

d'Kong76
Aug 10 2016 02:02 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

The quest this week I guess is to stay above .500.

Rockin' Doc
Aug 13 2016 02:54 AM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Centerfield wrote:
We can still do this. Plenty of season left.

Turn around starts today.


I'd like whatever Centerfield is drinking.

Centerfield wrote:
Fuck it man. They fucking suck
.

Damn, that buzz didn't last long. Best make mine a double.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Aug 13 2016 06:46 AM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

I'm not saying we should lean into this slide. But maybe the last month of the year is for regrouping, seeing what we have in some youngsters, and if the draft position improves a bit, well, all the better.

TransMonk
Aug 13 2016 01:02 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote:
I'm not saying we should lean into this slide. But maybe the last month of the year is for regrouping, seeing what we have in some youngsters, and if the draft position improves a bit, well, all the better.

Yes, yes and yes.

Mets Guy in Michigan
Aug 13 2016 01:29 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

TransMonk wrote:
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote:
I'm not saying we should lean into this slide. But maybe the last month of the year is for regrouping, seeing what we have in some youngsters, and if the draft position improves a bit, well, all the better.

Yes, yes and yes.


Which youngsters?

Edgy MD
Aug 13 2016 02:27 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Draft-elbowing is not my cup of tea.

Play to win. Play to thrive. Play to inspire.

metirish
Aug 13 2016 02:37 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

I like those sentiments Edgy, the Mets this year never did seem to inspire , something felt not right all year.

d'Kong76
Aug 15 2016 09:27 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Make Your Playoff Ticket Plans Now!

Centerfield
Aug 17 2016 02:13 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

You know, they're really just at 3-4 game win streak away from putting themselves in contention. They have a chance to directly take down the two teams in the lead (SF and St.L) and that could really make things interesting.

Cespedes will be back, the Walker baby will be here, if Bruce gets hot and Rivera keeps hitting...

I think there's no way around it. It's time to send Ben Grimm to Peru.

Edgy MD
Aug 17 2016 02:21 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

FK is right, though, T.J. has to stay on second.

My guess is, if everything goes right, that Cespedes appears about the time Walker goes to the paternity list. Walker and Cabrera's returns knock out Rivera and Kelly, and Ruggiano (did he really happen?) doesn't get re-activated until after the rosters expand.

Benjamin Grimm
Aug 17 2016 02:36 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Centerfield wrote:
I think there's no way around it. It's time to send Ben Grimm to Peru.


I'll call our CPF travel agents in Stockholm to see if they can make arrangements.

Lefty Specialist
Aug 17 2016 02:41 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

I think this explains a lot of things.

General Batting (Rank)
AVG: .237 (30)
Runs: 445 (29)
Hits: 939 (30)
Home Runs: 154 (8)
Stolen Bases: 28 (28)
OBP: .306 (27)
SLG: .403 (20)
Total Bases: 1596 (26)

Frayed Knot
Aug 17 2016 03:08 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Edgy MD wrote:
FK is right, though, T.J. has to stay on second.


Except that an inning or two after I typed that in last night's IGT, Gary related that Backman had recommended Rivera for 3rd rather than 2nd despite the nearly 2/1 ratio of minor league innings played the other way around.
So maybe it's just SSS applying here - although that small sample makes it look to me that TJ doesn't have the arm for that half of the infield.

Edgy MD
Aug 18 2016 01:40 AM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

I think Wally's opinion is colored by him having different options. He has a good hitting shortstop to play second. The Mets have Kelly Johnson and Wilmer Flores, both of whom have the arm for third, but not necessarily the nimbleness for the keystone.

Anyhow, it looks like Terry is thinking this way too, as Johnson and Rivera have switched assignments tonight.

d'Kong76
Aug 18 2016 01:49 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

I'm sorry, but losing 5-6 to the fucking Diamondbacks over the course of one
week is goddamn disgraceful. I don't care who is hurt or who has a bun coming
out of the oven or whatever silly excuse anyone can come up with. If ya can't
beat a team that was like twenty five games below .500 with the squad you have,
bring up some more guys from AAA or AA that will fight for playing time and at
least get some work in at the major league level. *spits* National League Champs
my Cal-Ripkin-eaten asshole, they should take the pennant down and be ashamed
of how they've followed up such a remarkable season. *spits again*

Centerfield
Aug 18 2016 03:01 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

d'Kong76 wrote:
I'm sorry, but losing 5-6 to the fucking Diamondbacks over the course of one
week is goddamn disgraceful. I don't care who is hurt or who has a bun coming
out of the oven or whatever silly excuse anyone can come up with. If ya can't
beat a team that was like twenty five games below .500 with the squad you have,
bring up some more guys from AAA or AA that will fight for playing time and at
least get some work in at the major league level. *spits* National League Champs
my Cal-Ripkin-eaten asshole, they should take the pennant down and be ashamed
of how they've followed up such a remarkable season. *spits again*


Yup.

MFS62
Aug 18 2016 03:46 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Benjamin Grimm wrote:
Centerfield wrote:
I think there's no way around it. It's time to send Ben Grimm to Peru.


I'll call our CPF travel agents in Stockholm to see if they can make arrangements.

Call Donald Trump. I'll bet he has some nifty ideas on how to send someone back there.

Later

Frayed Knot
Aug 22 2016 01:03 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Optimism reason # (whatever)
That other 2015 WS team looked even more dead than we did in early August -- 7 games below .500 on Aug 5th, dropped to 4th place, as many as 11 games back in the AL Central -- and for many of the same reasons: lots of injuries, pitching not as good as in the past, etc.
And while they're still a seemingly insurmountable 8 games back in the Central, their current 8-game winning streak* and 13 wins in their last 15 has them within 3.5 games of WC #2.

Now of course we're currently just 1/4 of the way into a theoretical 8-game winning streak and even further from a 13-of-15-like run, but we're also not starting from as far behind as the Royals did and are essentially in the same spot that they're just now getting to.
Grasping at straws? Sure, especially seeing as how they've shown no signs of being capable of anything like it recently, but it is a reminder of what a hot week or more can accomplish.





* Runs allowed during their run: 4, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 0, 1

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Aug 22 2016 01:33 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

We're going to have to bop our way back.

d'Kong76
Aug 22 2016 01:50 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Bop 'til you drop!
[youtube:1rtva1m5]Uia2EzrZMTE[/youtube:1rtva1m5]

Centerfield
Aug 22 2016 02:28 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Optimism reason # (whatever)
That other 2015 WS team looked even more dead than we did in early August -- 7 games below .500 on Aug 5th, dropped to 4th place, as many as 11 games back in the AL Central -- and for many of the same reasons: lots of injuries, pitching not as good as in the past, etc.
And while they're still a seemingly insurmountable 8 games back in the Central, their current 8-game winning streak* and 13 wins in their last 15 has them within 3.5 games of WC #2.

Now of course we're currently just 1/4 of the way into a theoretical 8-game winning streak and even further from a 13-of-15-like run, but we're also not starting from as far behind as the Royals did and are essentially in the same spot that they're just now getting to.
Grasping at straws? Sure, especially seeing as how they've shown no signs of being capable of anything like it recently, but it is a reminder of what a hot week or more can accomplish.





* Runs allowed during their run: 4, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 0, 1


We don't even need 8 (though it certainly would be nice). Three straight wins against St. Louis would make things really interesting with plenty of time left in the season.

Got Yo back. That helps. When is Jay Bruce due to arrive from Cincinnati? This is like the longest flight ever.

Vic Sage
Aug 22 2016 06:22 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

i think his plane went down in the Andes. He may have eaten himself by now.

Frayed Knot
Aug 23 2016 05:11 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Centerfield wrote:
We don't even need 8 (though it certainly would be nice). Three straight wins against St. Louis would make things really interesting with plenty of time left in the season.


Yeah we don't need a streak so much as they just have to win consistently.
As with the East division last year, this year's WC race is being left open by a bunch of teams none of which is likely to hit 90 wins. This is thanks both to the contenders knocking off each other and the NL (following a brief hot start at the beginning of the season) once again getting its collective butts kicked by the AL in inter-league play.

So with 38 games left it's possible that they could squeak in by going 25-13 or even a game or two worse. 25 wins would put them at 87 on the year, the WC-leading SFG are currently headed for 88.5

Centerfield
Aug 23 2016 06:33 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

25-13 seems like a tall order for this team. I guess we'll find out a lot over these next 3 games.

Lefty Specialist
Aug 23 2016 08:19 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

You can play with numbers all you want, but realistically they have to sweep the Cards. Just don't see it happening.

Ceetar
Aug 23 2016 08:28 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Lefty Specialist wrote:
You can play with numbers all you want, but realistically they have to sweep the Cards. Just don't see it happening.


three game samples are tiny. Crappy teams clobber juggernauts and vice versa, all the time.

Mets could sweep the Cards and then get swept by the Phillies while the Cardinals sweep the As and we're right back where we started.

Alternative, the Mets could drop 2/3 to the Cards, sweep the Phillies while the Cards get swept and end up better off.

seawolf17
Aug 23 2016 08:29 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Lefty Specialist wrote:
You can play with numbers all you want, but realistically they have to sweep the Cards. Just don't see it happening.

THAT IS NOT A CAN-DO ATTITUDE.

d'Kong76
Aug 23 2016 08:32 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Lefty Specialist wrote:
You can play with numbers all you want, but realistically they have to sweep the Cards. Just don't see it happening.

Once a year it has to be asked, and I choose now to ask!
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor??

Lefty Specialist
Aug 23 2016 08:58 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Yes.

d'Kong76
Aug 23 2016 09:07 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

[fimg=450:21w5o381]http://img12.deviantart.net/ea15/i/2009/113/d/9/is_eeyore_happy__by_talismentv3.jpg[/fimg:21w5o381]

seawolf17
Aug 23 2016 09:34 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

COME ON PEOPLE.

[bigpurple:uz8zcaju]YA.

GOTTA.

BELIEVE.[/bigpurple:uz8zcaju]

themetfairy
Aug 23 2016 11:45 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

I believe.

I believe.

It's silly, but I believe....

Frayed Knot
Aug 24 2016 03:40 AM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Lefty Specialist wrote:
You can play with numbers all you want, but realistically they have to sweep the Cards. Just don't see it happening.


Sure, but my point in starting this was to point out that 8 in a row (now 9) and 12 of 15 (now 13 of 16) wasn't easy to see for the Royals this year either.
They were even worse than the Mets until two weeks ago.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Aug 24 2016 06:48 AM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Great. And as great as they're playing, the Royals almost certainly won't make the playoffs this year, either.

Tonight's win was nice. They're proving a little more resilient in stretches with a full, healthy lineup. But they can-do little beyond that, given how much water the good ship Starting Pitching is taking on. Let's go down with a fight, but also without illusions-- this is NOT happening.

REVERSE JINX!

Fman99
Aug 24 2016 12:05 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

I guarantee they win more games.

Edgy MD
Aug 24 2016 12:30 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Centerfield wrote:
25-13 seems like a tall order for this team.

I think 24-13 is much more within reach.

It could hardly have been a better night. Not only did the Mets win and the Cardinals (relatedly) lose, but Nats lost, the Marlins lost, and the Giants lost. The only ones who didn't cooperate were the Bucs, who beat up on the heartless Astros.

Frayed Knot
Aug 24 2016 01:13 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote:
Great. And as great as they're playing, the Royals almost certainly won't make the playoffs this year, either.


But, again, KC started so much further back, so far back that this 9-straight/13-of-16 run of theirs was needed just to bring them up to where we are now coming off a 6-8 stretch over the past two weeks.
Put another way, the Royals need to essentially duplicate what they've just done over the last few weeks to really jump into the thick of the race, we just need to do it once (and not shit the bed during the 'non-streak' games).

Tough, but possible.

Edgy MD
Aug 24 2016 01:42 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Yeah, put on your YGB shirt and SHUT UP!!11!

Ceetar
Aug 24 2016 01:49 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Edgy MD wrote:
Centerfield wrote:
25-13 seems like a tall order for this team.

I think 24-13 is much more within reach.

It could hardly have been a better night. Not only did the Mets win and the Cardinals (relatedly) lose, but Nats lost, the Marlins lost, and the Giants lost. The only ones who didn't cooperate were the Bucs, who beat up on the heartless Astros.


the Mets have made it tough, but it's worth keeping an eye on those Nats. plenty of baseball left, including 6 head to head.

31 other games in which the Mets need to be 4 games better than them if they sweep them. Can they go say 20-11 while the Nats go 16-15? It's not the most absurd thing.

Just keep winning.

Centerfield
Aug 24 2016 02:32 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Frayed Knot wrote:
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote:
Great. And as great as they're playing, the Royals almost certainly won't make the playoffs this year, either.


But, again, KC started so much further back, so far back that this 9-straight/13-of-16 run of theirs was needed just to bring them up to where we are now coming off a 6-8 stretch over the past two weeks.
Put another way, the Royals need to essentially duplicate what they've just done over the last few weeks to really jump into the thick of the race, we just need to do it once (and not shit the bed during the 'non-streak' games).

Tough, but possible.


Gotta at least split these last two. And if by chance somehow they sweep the Cards...

Centerfield
Aug 24 2016 02:36 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

(Btw, one need look no further than this thread to remember that the word "fan" derives from "fanatic". Wow, we are all fucking nuts.)

Zvon
Aug 24 2016 03:49 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

I was down on the Mets but U guyz picked me up. Now we pick them up. We gotta.



A few 2007 CPF avatars in that.

d'Kong76
Aug 25 2016 05:16 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Mets Depleted, Not Yet Defeated | Bob Nightengale, USA TODAY Sports

Centerfield
Aug 26 2016 11:29 AM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

3.5 games out. 3 games against the Phils coming up. Sure, there are still a few teams to leap over, but stranger things have happened.

More importantly, they've finally started hitting a bit. Probably get Bruce and Walker back tonight. If they call up Conforto, we can run this out there:

1. Reyes 3B
2. Walker 2B
3. Cespedes LF
4. Bruce RF
5. Conforto CF
6. Loney 1B
7. Cabrera SS
8. d'Arnaud C

That's good enough to get it done. You can also move Bruce to 1B and run a Ruggiano/de Aza platoon. Flores is your super-sub. KJohnson is your LH bat, TJ Rivera comes from the right side.

Let's win 20 in a row.

d'Kong76
Sep 01 2016 04:01 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

This series has gone as planned, but finishing off the Fish tonight with a four-
game sweep feels paramount to me. I wanna see Bill tonight!

Frayed Knot
Sep 01 2016 04:46 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

7-2 since I laid down the 25-13 mark as the needed mark for securing a probable WC#2.
So now it's more like a still tough but easier to swallow 18-11 goal. And we've only lost two major players to injury during that time which is, like, below average for this season.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Sep 01 2016 04:53 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Frayed Knot wrote:
7-2 since I laid down the 25-13 mark as the needed mark for securing a probable WC#2.
So now it's more like a still tough but easier to swallow 18-11 goal. And we've only lost two major players to injury during that time which is, like, below average for this season.


3-1 since I laid down the 21-12 Gauntlet, so I'm also at 18-11

Benjamin Grimm
Sep 01 2016 04:54 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

I'd be calculating the NHOP but it's a lot more complicated this year than last.

TransMonk
Sep 01 2016 04:59 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

*I was originally going to put this in the "Walker's Back" thread, but...

I've often remembered 2009 as being a year where I thought injuries really impacted the team's ability to compete. 2011 was a high injury year as well, but I'm not sure expectations were as high.

I know there are "official" team-by-team charts of time missed and payroll lost that actually gauges the impact of injuries to a team, but to my eyeballs, I have to believe that 2015 is becoming arguably the most injury impacted year in recent memory. I pulled these 2009 and 2011 stats of the interwebs, but the 2016 numbers are mine.

2009
Jose Reyes: Out 5/22-end of season
Carlos Delgado: Out 5/11-end of season
Carlos Beltran: Out 6/22-9/6
Angel Pagan: Out beginning of season-5/15, 6/1-7/9
Johan Santana: Out 8/21-end of season
Tim Redding: Out beginning of season to 5/17
John Maine: Out 6/7-9/12
Oliver Perez: Out 5/3-7/7, 8/24-end of season

2011
Jose Reyes: Out 7/3-7/18, 8/9-8/29
David Wright: Out 5/16-7/21
Angel Pagan: Out 4/22-5/26
Daniel Murphy: Out 8/8-end of season
Ike Davis: Out 5/12-end of season
Jason Bay: Out beginning of season-4/20
Johan Santana: Out entire season
Chris Young: Out 5/2-end of season
Jonathon Niese: Out 8/24-end of season

2016
Zach Wheeler: Out entire season
Josh Edgin: Out beginning of season-8/3
Travis d'Arnaud: Out 4/26-6/20
Lucas Duda: Out 5/21-end of season
David Wright: Out 5/28-end of season
Juan Lagares: Out 6/15-7/1, 7/29-end of season
Jim Henderson: Out 6/19-8/22
Matt Harvey: Out 7/4-end of season
Jonathon Niese: Out 8/23-end of season
Neil Walker: Out 8/28-end of season

Also in 2016: short DL stints for Flores, Reyes, Cabrera and Cespedes...Cabrera and Cespedes with lingering injuries for weeks (if not months).

Honestly, when you add in the steps back that Conforto took at a ML level and the decline of last year's offensive MVP Granderson, I'm pretty darn proud that the Mets still have a legitimate shot at the Wild Card.

Frayed Knot
Sep 19 2016 01:49 AM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Nice time to re-visit this thread. Pages 2 and 3 in particular are a hoot to go over as our alternating optimism & pessimism (sometimes both at the same time) is all over the place.

Anyway, they're now 18-7 since I called for them to close out the season 25-13, meaning that merely 7-6 from here on out could do the trick.
And although I'd hate to bank on 7-6 doing the trick, that mediocre record would still be enough to force the Giants to go 8-5 (remember also that they're the worst tam in the NL AND have six of their final 13 vs LAD) AND force the Cards to go 9-4, and those records would merely cause a tie for the two WC slots, a play-in for the play-in as it were.

An 8-5 run by the Mets would force SF to go at least 9-4 and the Cards 10-3;
9-4 forces 10-3 combined with 11-2, and so on. And to lose the WC outright tack an extra win onto each of the other teams' needed records.



Giants remaining:
@ LAD x 3
@ SDP x 4
vs COL x 3
vs LAD x 3

Cards remaining:
@ COL x 3
@ CHC x 3
vs CIN x 4
vs PIT x 3

Fman99
Sep 19 2016 02:18 AM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Fman99 wrote:
I guarantee they win more games.


I totally called this by the way. It's a gift.

Frayed Knot
Sep 19 2016 02:49 AM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

An 8-5 run by the Mets would force SF to go at least 9-4 and the Cards 10-3;
9-4 forces 10-3 combined with 11-2, and so on. And to lose the WC outright tack an extra win onto each of the other teams' needed records.


And one more thing ... if the Giants should suddenly and stunningly reverse their second half trend and go on a streak which would force the Mets to play keep-up and catch-up, then that run is almost certainly going to come at the partial expense of the Dodgers* who sit only 4 games ahead of the Mets at this point. IOW, we're guaranteed at least six losses combined from the teams directly ahead and behind us.


Dodger sked:
vs SFG x 3
vs COL x 4
@ SDP x 3
@ SFG x 3




* Dodgers lost a wild one today, down 6-0 early and 7-1 after 5, they stormed back to go Up 9-7 before the DBacks scored 2 in the 8th to tie it then won it in the 12th

Lefty Specialist
Sep 19 2016 12:29 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

I must admit I was pessimistic. Losing 5 of 6 to the D-Backs made me throw in the towel. But now I see the ref wasn't looking so I surreptitiously grabbed the towel back.

Their 1-game lead over the Giants is essentially a 2-game lead as the Mets have the tiebreaker. I'm torn because I don't want to see them face [u:38ojoz62]either[/u:38ojoz62] the Cards or the Giants in a one-game winner-take-all.

Frayed Knot
Sep 19 2016 01:19 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Lefty Specialist wrote:
Their 1-game lead over the Giants is essentially a 2-game lead as the Mets have the tiebreaker.


For positioning purposes among WC #1 and WC #2, yes. But those tie-breakers won't help when determining who's in or out so we'd really like to finish at least a game clear of either SF or StL (and preferably both) because the only thing worse than having to survive a play-in game is having to survive two play-in games.
Imagine being told at the beginning of the year that, yes, this pitching-rich Mets team would make it at least as far as the first full round of the playoffs but that they'd open that round with Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman as their Game 1 & 2 starters. That's a very likely scenario of the Mets surviving a double play-in situation and using Thor & Bart to get through them.





I'm torn because I don't want to see them face either the Cards or the Giants in a one-game winner-take-all.


Well then as long as we're being optimistic these days, only 8 games behind Washington with 13 to play. What's that Lottery slogan? 'Hey, you never know'.

Centerfield
Sep 19 2016 01:36 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Slightly more realistic is the possibility that the Mets could win the first slot, then the Cards and Giants could tie for the second. Which would mean they would have to play a play in game to get to the play in game.

And it would be great if that game was a 24 inning injury-riddled bean brawl with both teams burning their 1 and 2 pitchers.

d'Kong76
Sep 20 2016 01:29 AM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Would be just like the Braves to come in and take 2-3 or sweep and
ruin this several-week high we've been on.

Frayed Knot
Sep 20 2016 01:36 AM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

They just took 2 of 3 from the Nats over the weekend so it wouldn't be unprecedented.

d'Kong76
Sep 20 2016 01:39 AM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

I know, just being gloomy!

Zvon
Sep 20 2016 01:45 AM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

d'Kong76 wrote:
I know, just being gloomy!


I think this is going to be a few weeks of mood swings for us all. May the last swing be up.

Lefty Specialist
Sep 20 2016 01:36 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

I hate living and dying with every win and loss.

However, it's better than NOT living and dying with every win and loss.

d'Kong76
Sep 21 2016 02:03 AM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Lefty Specialist wrote:
I hate living and dying with every win and loss.
However, it's better than NOT living and dying with every win and loss.

I wish someone besides a Wilpon coined the phrase I'm not even going to say.
But yes, I agree with the NOT notion.

d'Kong76
Sep 22 2016 02:31 AM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

d'Kong76 wrote:
Would be just like the Braves to come in and take 2-3 or sweep and
ruin this several-week high we've been on.

Fuck you d'Kong and your dumb pic is gone tomorrow.

Centerfield
Sep 22 2016 02:43 AM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

The Dodgers are up 4-1 on the Giants and still threatening.

And thank god we don't have to face the Braves anymore.

Frayed Knot
Sep 26 2016 06:37 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Time for our weekly re-visit of this thread.

21-11 since we laid down the mark of needing 25-13 to close out the season - and it's looking like that 87 win projection will be right about on the nose even though, at the time, I was likely thinking of that as good enough for the second WC mark rather than the first because we were in no position to be that greedy back then.

So a 4-2 finish from here probably does the trick and would mean that:
- the Giants could go 4-2 AND the Cards 5-2 and we'd be in the #1 WC slot with those two fighting it out for who gets to come to CitiField
- if the Cards cooperate by losing at least two then the Giants could even go 5-1 and we'd still be WC #1 by virtue of the tie-breaker
- as long as EITHER of SF/StL loses at least 2 more games then we'll clinch one of the WC slots even if the other runs the table

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Sep 26 2016 07:01 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Yeah 4-2 does it. Also would meet the RUSH finish of 21-12 in last 33.

d'Kong76
Sep 26 2016 07:08 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

I'm not shaving my armpits this week, time to man up!

Benjamin Grimm
Sep 26 2016 07:22 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

The Mets have a magic number of 6 over the Cardinals and 6 over the Giants.

If all goes well the next few days, the Mets can clinch one of the two Wild Card positions by the end of Wednesday's action. (That's the day after tomorrow!)

On the more pessimistic side, the Mets have guaranteed that their games will have meaning at least through Friday. Their tragic number against the Giants is 8 and it's 9 for the Cardinals. If everything goes wrong, meaning 17 unhappy outcomes in 17 games over the next five days, the Mets will be eliminated at the end of Friday's action. That seems pretty unlikely, but it means that, as of the moment, the extent of their "Minimum Window of Meaningfulness" (that's the MWOM) is Friday, September 30. Let's see if, and how quickly, the Mets can push the MWOM to October 2 and then to October 5.

Mets Guy in Michigan
Sep 26 2016 07:25 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote:
Yeah 4-2 does it. Also would meet the RUSH finish of 21-12 in last 33.



Nice! If Thor, Cespedes and Bartolo could pose in Rush kimonos, that would be cool.

Rush did come out for the encores wearing Islander jerseys on the first time I saw them -- the night before the team won its first Cup.

Frayed Knot
Sep 26 2016 08:07 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

I figured they'd be Maple Leaf fans (I know Geddy is a big Blue Jays guy) but I guess they know how to suck up to local audiences.




BP's playoff odds put the Mets at 83.7% (a bit better than 5 of 6), the Cards at 60.6%, the Giants at 55.6%
Neither of the other non-eliminated teams, Miami & Pitt, have any odds at all (or too small to put a number on).

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Sep 26 2016 08:56 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Our best-case is an outright win and them 2 finishing in a tie, then playing a 30-inning play-in game.

Frayed Knot
Oct 02 2016 12:19 AM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Frayed Knot wrote:
Centerfield wrote:
We don't even need 8 (though it certainly would be nice). Three straight wins against St. Louis would make things really interesting with plenty of time left in the season.


Yeah we don't need a streak so much as they just have to win consistently.
As with the East division last year, this year's WC race is being left open by a bunch of teams none of which is likely to hit 90 wins.

So with 38 games left it's possible that they could squeak in by going 25-13 or even a game or two worse. 25 wins would put them at 87 on the year, the WC-leading SFG are currently headed for 88.5



That was from this thread on August 23rd when they had just climbed back to .500 (62-62) after taking two straight from ... the Giants!!
Record since then is 25-12
Wins = 87 (with a shot at 88).
And, yeah, they pretty much squeaked in.

Centerfield
Oct 03 2016 01:58 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Great work. In fact, it's hard to be any more right than you were then.

Centerfield
Oct 03 2016 02:04 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

I love how we all flip flop back and forth between ("We can do this!") to ("Fuck man, let's play the kids.") in the beginning of this thread.

In the end, both schools of thought were correct.

Centerfield
Oct 03 2016 02:17 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

And you know what the crazy thing is? If they can get by Bumgarner and then the Cubs (tall orders, I get it), then the LCS and WS are wide open.

They are capable of beating both Washington and the Dodgers, and not one AL team scares me.

WE CAN FUCKING DO THIS.

Frayed Knot
Oct 03 2016 02:26 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

Centerfield wrote:
Great work. In fact, it's hard to be any more right than you were then.


And just to be clear here, I wasn't right in that I thought they were going to finish that way, only that those numbers were right around where they'd need to finish in order to be in the WC mix.
But I was subject to blowing hot & cold on this squad as much as anyone.

The cool part is that their run began just two days before we started throwing the numbers around (games 3 & 4 of the Giants series) and how, even though it was right on the heels of that stretch of five losses in six games to the DBacks, from that day forward the team stayed almost perfectly on that pace with the mid-Sept Braves series being the only real stumbling block along the way.

Benjamin Grimm
Oct 03 2016 02:52 PM
Re: Can-Do Attitude

The ups and downs for 2016 are somewhat similar to 2015. Notable differences are that the brief dip below .500 came later in 2016, and the surge at the end of the season was much more dramatic in 2015.