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http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.c ... rformance/
It seems impossible to believe, but the Mets have replaced David Wright as the team’s everyday third baseman with a minor-league free agent, and that minor-league free agent is one of the team’s 10 greatest on-field performers in history*. Jose Reyes has come in and done almost exactly what the Mets advertised he would do: he’s been something of a catalyst at the top of a once-floundering Mets lineup. As a result, it’s probably time to sit down and talk about what he’s done this season, and what that means for the team’s future.
( * – He is. But we can talk more about that some other time.)
I was against Reyes’ acquisition from the jump and I’ve made no secret of my distaste for the team acquiring someone with heinous actions on their ledger. Despite my sincere wish that he wasn’t a part of this team, it would be remiss to note that–from a baseball perspective only–this front office has completely justified his acquisition. I wasn’t sure before that adding a player like Reyes and sticking him at third base would be a performance upgrade over a player like Wilmer Flores or Ty Kelly.
It turns out that Reyes has something left in the tank, and his performance has likely outpaced what the team could have gotten from an in-house option. (Non-T.J. Rivera division.)
Let’s start by talking about his overall offensive value. In 225 plate appearances, Reyes has hit for a .324 on-base percentage and .447 slugging percentage, numbers that fall roughly in line with his career totals. Those are pretty good numbers, and Baseball Prospectus’ True Average metric currently scores him at .293–well-above league-average that sits in the .260s. According to Baseball-Reference, MLB third basemen are currently reaching base at a .333 clip, and slugging .449. In essence, Reyes has provided approximately league-average offense for his position, and decidedly above-average offense overall.
Underneath the hood, it looks like there have been a few changes to the way Reyes has been successful. First off, it certainly appears that Reyes has been selling out for power. In each of his previous 13 seasons, Reyes has kept his strikeout rate between 7.0 and 13.5 percent, but in 2016 it has spiked to 19.6 percent. His peripherals also tell us that his bat speed may be changing, as he has seen his swinging strike rate jump from a career mark of about 14 percent to this season’s 21 percent; in essence, he’s swinging at pitches and missing approximately 50 percent more than he used to. At the same time, he’s making less contact overall (79 percent compared to his career 86 percent) despite a swing rate that’s not too far out of line with his career norms.
On the positive side, Reyes is hitting fewer balls on the ground and relying less on his aging legs to reach first base. Instead, he’s increased the number of balls in the air substantially–in previous seasons he never hit fewer than 41 percent of balls on the ground, and in 2016 only about 36 percent have been worm-killers. He already has seven homers with the Mets, and that makes his “secret skill” a bit more noticeable. For years, Reyes was seen as the speed guy with the Mets, reaching base on ground balls and grabbing extra bases, but he’s always been a bigger power threat than advertised. In his advanced age, he’s now posting the highest isolated power of his career (.180), and this has made up for some of his decline in bat speed and ability to reach base with regularity.
Though Reyes can still turn on the wheels and grind out a triple with the best of them, it’s probably time to fully recognize how different of an offensive player he is from his previous incarnation. Where he used to be worth almost a full win on the basepaths due to his outrageous speed and smart baserunning, in 2016 he’s only added 1.7 runs by BP’s BRR metric. That’s still better than average, but it gives truth to the fact that he’s aging and slowing down a bit. Honestly, he’s not a top-of-the-order bat, even in the Mets’ plodding lineup. Right now, he may be the best of a host of bad options. Weirdly, the team has a lot of hitters with very similar batting lines in Reyes, Kelly Johnson, Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores and Curtis Granderson. Of that bunch, why not hit Reyes leadoff … but he may not be the best option next season. Speed isn’t everything–OBP is!–and Reyes’s speed is starting to diminish, especially if he’s transforming into more of a power hitter.
On an aside, looking at Baseball Savant, we see that he’s making much better hard contact against left-handed pitchers these days.
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He’s faced many more righties than lefties this season (174 PA against RHP compared to 51 PA against LHP), but he’s tuned up those whom he has faced. Not only has he walked more than he’s struck out against southpaws, his .471 on-base percentage and .773 slugging percentage are wildly superior to his .282 and .358 marks against right-handers. The switch-hitter has always been superior against lefties, but even if we regress this small sample, there are signs he may be changing into more of a platoon hitter as well.
From a defensive standpoint … he’s been fine, I suppose. Playing third base mostly, he seems more or less comfortable at his new position. There have been six errors (two fielding, four throwing) at the position, while he’s earned zero at shortstop in about a third of the time. But while DRS has been unkind to him (-4 runs), UZR (-0.6 runs) and BP’s FRAA (-2.0 runs total, including time at shortstop) have been less harsh. Of course, small-samples in advanced defensive metrics can be misleading, and I trust my eye test less than perhaps I should. As a result, I turned to our site’s foremost talent evaluators for their thoughts on Reyes’s shift from six to five. Jarrett Seidler offered this up: “Good hands, decent instincts, fringe range, good arm strength, fringe arm accuracy. Plays way better overall at shortstop than third. Would consider him average or slightly above at third.” Jeff Paternostro echoed Jarrett’s sentiments, though he gave him an overall grade of “average” at the position.
Really, that’s not too bad for a player getting his first real time at the position, even if he is a converted shortstop and the expectations should be high for a conversion. I have to think that with a Spring Training and partial season under his belt, Reyes will be able to maintain his defensive adequacy into the next season or two; I’m not so naive to think he’ll improve as he ages, but if he can remain average defensively, that’s a big factor in him retaining surplus value for this franchise. A bad defensive third baseman really needs to hit if he can’t play defense–a shift down the defensive spectrum requires improved offense, and the Mets are unlikely to have open holes in the corner outfield or at first base anyway. An average defensive third baseman–with the occasional ability to back up in the middle of the infield–just has to hit like an average third baseman to be average. And average isn’t average for this Mets team, at Reyes’s cost. Average is good.
I’m still very uncomfortable with Reyes playing for this team, but the Mets can’t possibly care about that. This is a team that is more than willing to play a PR stunt or two if it means making a quick buck … even if there’s the possibility it disrupts the on-field product or alienates part of the fanbase / organization. Given who the Mets have in the organization, and all the question marks that come with names like Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker, and David Wright, it’s hard to imagine that the Mets wouldn’t want him back for next season. (Seriously, for a likely playoff team, there are a lot of uncertainties.) I’d like to see and hear more public contrition from Reyes. I’d really like to see the man use the playoff stage to discuss his mistakes and how people can be more proactive about preventing domestic violence. Maybe he’ll man up and do that, someday.
Until then, he’ll probably hit a little.
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