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Playoff Odds

Frayed Knot Sep 27 2016 02:33 PM

As simple as I can make it, there are six different ways the Mets can play out the schedule [0-5, 1-4, 2-3, 3-2, 4-1, 5-0] and seven different ways each the Giants and Cardinals can play out theirs given that they have six games remaining rather than five. So 6 x 7 x 7 = 294 different combinations that things could still turn out (ignoring the Marlins for the moment). The way I figure it, 227 of those have us winning one or the other WC outright. Of the remaining there are 30 more scenarios where we'll need a play-in game because we either tied for the second slot or wind up in a three-way knot. And then there are 37 outcomes where we wind up on the outside looking in. Problem is, not all of those outcomes are equally possible. It's far more likely, for instance, that the Mets go 3-2 or 2-3 than it is 1-4 or 4-1, and even those outcomes are more likely still than 0-5, 5-0. Those same 'squishing towards the middle' odds apply also to SF & StL. The odds therefore of each team running the table for instance is not 1/294 (0.34%) but a rather ridiculous 0.00076% These odds are all generic, btw, and don't take into consideration the quality of opponent and pitchers, or the hot-ness or not-ness of each team, but it's the best we can do here. I assume that places like BP take all those factors in and so it's probably just best to follow their daily updates. At the moment they've got us at 83.3% in although 'IN' might still entail a 50/50 shot via a play-in game. Either way, with so few games remaining the odds have the ability to rise or drop fairly dramatically with each game played and the volume of possibilities will drop quickly. Bottom line: The odds are pretty good as things stand right now that Sunday will not be our final game of the season ... but stayed tuned for further updates as they become available.

Centerfield Sep 27 2016 04:21 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Great stuff FK. It sounds very encouraging. With St. Louis losing yesterday, it takes a lot of the pressure off.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 27 2016 04:30 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Magic Numbers: Mets over Cardinals: 5. Mets over Giants: 6. Tragic Numbers: Giants over Mets: 7. Cardinals over Mets: 8. Soonest that Mets can clinch a wild card: Thursday. The could potentially have three post-clinching games to setup their rotation and/or try to secure home field advantage for the October 5 playoff game. Soonest that Mets can be eliminated: Friday. Their MWOM (Minimum Window of Meaningfulness) now extends through Friday, September 30. At most, they'll play two meaningless games.

Frayed Knot Sep 27 2016 06:43 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Magic Numbers: Mets over Cardinals: 5. Mets over Giants: 6. And the good thing about those magic numbers is that we only need Either of them come through. It reminds me a bit of 1999. As we all recall (and if you don't you'll be banned) it was the Mets sweeping the Pirates AND the Reds stumbling twice against a bad Brewers team over the final weekend which forced that WC play-in game which in turn led to the Pratt win over Arizona which in turn led to the GS Single and the almost win over the Braves. 'We got lucky' and 'backed in' some claimed on account of the fact that we couldn't have earned it on our own and needed the unlikely result of the Cincy/Milw series. Except what is often NOT so well remembered is that Cincy started that final weekend locked in a dead heat with Houston for the NL Central crown which means we merely needed EITHER team to stumble in their final series whilst we were taking care of our sweep. The Astros wound up winning twice vs the Dodgers (lost the first but then came back in games two & three) but the mere presence of having two teams in the mix doubled our odds for that year's 'miracle' post-season spot. And now this year looks to play out in similar fashion: in running from the bear that is a post-season-less October, we don't have to out-run both SF & StL we just have to out-run one of them and let the bear eat the other. I mean, sure we'd prefer beating both, but the difference between finishing ahead of neither and finishing ahead of one is a whole lot larger than the difference between one and two.

Centerfield Sep 27 2016 06:52 PM Re: Playoff Odds

The cool part about that 1999 race was that if Cincy and Houston tied, we would have automatically gotten the Wild Card, no play in game. Cincy and Houston would have squared off for the Division title. That being a regular season game, the loser would have finished a half game behind the Mets. Definitely an odd quirk. And pretty unfair.

TransMonk Sep 27 2016 07:28 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Frayed Knot wrote: in running from the bear that is a post-season-less October, we don't have to out-run both SF & StL we just have to out-run one of them and let the bear eat the other. I like this analogy.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 27 2016 07:48 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Given that the Cubs are looming as the opponent for whoever wins next Wednesday's game, even the team that outlasts the other two will still have ursine concerns.

Centerfield Sep 28 2016 12:53 PM Re: Playoff Odds

BP has us up to 86.1% now. St. Louis down to 42.9. 86 seems high for being just 1up in the loss column but then I remember even odds here are 66%.

Frayed Knot Sep 28 2016 01:27 PM Re: Playoff Odds

BP has us up to 86.1% now. St. Louis down to 42.9. And Giants at 71% 86 seems high for being just 1up in the loss column but then I remember even odds here are 66%. Yeah, remember that these odds have to add up to 200% since two teams are guaranteed entry, and in this case (unlike in the AL) it's only split three ways with the Marlins going back down to 0.00% even though they still have a hail mary shot at forcing a play-in game. Mainly the best thing that happened to us yesterday even though all three contenders won (and all three scored exactly 12 runs!!) is the removal of a day off of the schedule. The total number of permutations for the three teams over the remaining week fell from the 294 prior to last night's action down to 180 [5 combos for us x 6 each for SF & StL] and only 20 of those 180 eliminate us. We get in clear via 140, and at least tie for a spot in the other 20. Now again, like yesterday, these are unweighted odds so it's not exact but both my figuring yesterday and again today pretty much mimic the BP stuff: 140/180 = 77% then throw in around half of the 20% play-in odds and you're right there in the mid/upper-80s just like BP Remember also that the Cards have to be at least two wins better than us and now have less time in which to do it (even with one extra game) and the Giants have to notch at least one more win - and if Either/or of those don't happen then we're in. So plainly put: - sweeping our four games obviously gets us in since we can't be caught - but three wins virtually guarantees it also. There are 36 combos of us going 3-1 and we're in free and clear on 34 of them and in some sort of tie via 2 [a two tie for #2 slot w/StL if both SF & StL run the table; a three-way tie if Cards go 5-0 and SF 4-1] - going 2-3 gives us 30 'IN', 4 'TIE', 2 'OUT' - a paltry 1-4 still yields 24 'IN', 6 'TIE', 6 'OUT' - and even 0-5 let's us sneak in almost half the time - 16 'IN', 8 'TIE', 12 'OUT'

Centerfield Sep 29 2016 11:10 AM Re: Playoff Odds

I'm going to guess that our odds are pretty good now.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 29 2016 12:34 PM Re: Playoff Odds

I'm now thinking more about clinching by Saturday than I am about clinching in general. I very much want the Mets to be in a position to start Ynoa or Montero on Sunday instead of Syndergaard.

Edgy MD Sep 29 2016 12:35 PM Re: Playoff Odds

NYM 85.9% SFG 69.4% STL 44.7%

Benjamin Grimm Sep 29 2016 12:45 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Magic number over the Giants is 3, over the Cardinals is 2.

Centerfield Sep 29 2016 12:59 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Edgy MD wrote: NYM 85.9% SFG 69.4% STL 44.7% I don't think the numbers are updated. They couldn't have gone down from yesterday.

Frayed Knot Sep 29 2016 01:05 PM Re: Playoff Odds

NYM 85.9% SFG 69.4% STL 44.7% Yeah, something's screwy there because those numbers are barely changed from the night before and Wednesday's results should have produced a huge shift with so few games remaining. FWIW via the process of just seeing how many combinations put us in or out, the math is pretty simple as there are now exactly 100 possibilities and we're in on 92, out in just two, and in some sort of tie in the other six. Following some intense calculations I estimated those odds at right around 92%, 2%, and 6% - With a sweep in Philly we're not only in but in via the #1 slot - With two wins in Philly it's the same deal because that would eliminate the Cards and we'd hold the tie-breaker w/the Giants even if they ran the table - We can now even go 1-2 in Philly and still be guaranteed of playing past Sunday. We'd be in via 23 combinations of Cardinal & Giant outcomes but forced into a tie in two others: 1) Cards win their final 4 while Giants go 3-1 which means three-way tie 2) Cards win 4 and Giants win 4 in which case we'd tie the Cards and play-in vs them for the right to play the Giants - If we take an oh-fer in Philly then we still get in free and clear via 19 of the 25 combos of SF/StL games. There are the only two scenarios where we're out: 1) Cards win four, Giants win three; 2) Cards win four, Giants win four and there are four combos which will throw us into a tie of one sort or another: 1) C = 3 Wins, G = 2 (3-Way T) 2) C = 4, G = 2 (Tie w/G for 2nd) 3) C = 3, G = 3 (Tie w/C for 2nd) 4) C = 3, G = 4 (Tie w/C for 2nd)

Edgy MD Sep 29 2016 02:22 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Good work. Sorry to take the BP report at face value.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 29 2016 02:27 PM Re: Playoff Odds

I just checked to see if the odds at Baseball Prospectus had been refreshed, and got a white page with a one-line text message: Playoff Odds will return shortly - doing brief maintenance.

Frayed Knot Sep 29 2016 02:35 PM Re: Playoff Odds

We should be at around 95% at this point, and if BP is giving any kind of weight to the idea that the Mets are closing out vs the weak Phillies while the Giants and Cards have the relatively stronger Dodgers & Pirates (as opposed to my simpler method which essentially treats every outcome as a 50/50 proposition) then our odds will likely be a few clicks higher still. btw, both games of interest today are 6 PM local starts -- 7:15 EDT first pitch in StL; 9:10 EDT first pitch in SF -- so we've got a good chance of knowing the results prior to shut-eye tonight.

Lefty Specialist Sep 29 2016 03:00 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Plus, the Phils will probably be pitching a 'bullpen game' on Friday.

Frayed Knot Sep 29 2016 03:11 PM Re: Playoff Odds

OK, here's what I got: IN = 95.06% OUT = 1.95% 3-Way Tie = 1.76% 2-Way Tie for 2nd WC w/Giants = 0.29% 2-Way Tie for 2nd WC w/Cards = 0.94% That may not be the only answer, but it's my answer and I'm stickin' to it!!

Benjamin Grimm Sep 29 2016 03:18 PM Re: Playoff Odds

They're good numbers! Hopefully we'll get one or two happy outcomes in tonight's games. (If I had my choice of one or the other, I'd choose a loss by the Cardinals.) A Cardinals loss would eliminate the possibility of the Cardinals finishing ahead of the Mets.

Centerfield Sep 29 2016 03:22 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Lefty Specialist wrote: Plus, the Phils will probably be pitching a 'bullpen game' on Friday. Why do you say that? I thought they had that guy Asher lined up to pitch. He was pretty good in the early on against the Mets last week. I think it would be ideal if the Cards lost the next two games, allowing the Mets to clinch, then won the last two, while the Giants lose all four. Let's leave Madison Bumgarner at home. And I realize this is bad karma, and that I'm inviting Carlos Martinez to throw a 2 hit shutout, but I've thought about it, and I want no part of MadBum.

TransMonk Sep 29 2016 04:55 PM Re: Playoff Odds

538.com has the Mets' odds at 99%. I'm very comfortable saying it is likely that the Mets will get into the WC play-in game (99% scares the side of me that knows that anything is possible). Everything went right last night.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 29 2016 04:59 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Baseball Prospectus is back online. They have the Mets at 98.2% for a wild card, 48.2% to advance to the NLDS, and 2.0% to win the World Series. Cardinals are 33.2%/16.5%/0.7% and Giants are 68.5%/34.6%/1.7%

Frayed Knot Sep 29 2016 05:03 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Frayed Knot wrote: OK, here's what I got: OUT = 1.95% BP's updated numbers: Mets = 98.2 (aka: OUT = 1.8%) ... and my numbers were two hours earlier and on my first try. BP: Giants = 68.5% Cards = 33.2%

Edgy MD Sep 29 2016 05:06 PM Re: Playoff Odds

So, shorthand ... can the Mets clinch a Wild Card berth tonight?

Benjamin Grimm Sep 29 2016 05:07 PM Re: Playoff Odds

No, they can at best clinch a tie if the Cardinals lose. The earliest they can fully clinch a wild card is tomorrow.

Edgy MD Sep 29 2016 05:10 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Team's don't celebrate "At-Least-a-Tie Night," right? Only "Outright-Sole-Possession-Guaranteed Night," right? I just don't want to end up confused on the spot like Steve Zabriskie.

TransMonk Sep 29 2016 05:12 PM Re: Playoff Odds

I'm rooting for a Cardinal loss tonight and a Mets win against the Phillies' bullpen outing tomorrow. That would provide a clinch of playing a game on Wednesday. I'm pretty sure ties are not celebrated. We were discussing in some thread last week, but I'm of the opinion that champagne corks should only be popped with a win on Wednesday.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 29 2016 05:25 PM Re: Playoff Odds

That's the ideal outcome: A St. Louis loss tonight and a Mets win tomorrow, allowing the Mets to clinch the wild card at the conclusion of their Friday night game. But regardless of what the Giants and Cardinals do, if the Mets win the first two games in Philadelphia they'll have clinched the home field for next Wednesday's game. The two wins would guarantee they have a better record than the Cardinals and would mean that at best, the Giants could tie the Mets for the first slot. For home-field purposes, a tie between the Mets and Giants means a game a Citi Field.

Lefty Specialist Sep 29 2016 06:45 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Centerfield wrote: Lefty Specialist wrote: Plus, the Phils will probably be pitching a 'bullpen game' on Friday. Why do you say that? I thought they had that guy Asher lined up to pitch. He was pretty good in the early on against the Mets last week. GKR said that originally they were going to pitch Asher on Friday and have the 'bullpen game' on Saturday. But then they moved Saturday's game to Fox (because of the keen national interest in the Phillies). Pete Mackanin didn't want to be an embarrassment by throwing 9 innings of bullpen on a national broadcast, so he'll probably pitch Asher on Saturday and strike the match on his bullpen game on Friday instead.

Centerfield Sep 29 2016 06:53 PM Re: Playoff Odds

That is a terrific idea. Push back the capable starting pitcher and burn the bullpen in the first game of the series. Well played Philly.

Lefty Specialist Sep 29 2016 07:40 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Centerfield wrote: That is a terrific idea. Push back the capable starting pitcher and burn the bullpen in the first game of the series. Well played Philly. Well, they'll be resting from Monday on anyway.

Nymr83 Sep 30 2016 12:06 AM Re: Playoff Odds

Lefty Specialist wrote: Centerfield wrote: That is a terrific idea. Push back the capable starting pitcher and burn the bullpen in the first game of the series. Well played Philly. Well, they'll be resting from Monday on anyway. a "bullpen game" against a contender the last weekend of the season? that is an embarassment whether or not it is nationally broadcast.

Frayed Knot Sep 30 2016 12:39 AM Re: Playoff Odds

It was supposed to be rookie Jake Thompson's start but they've opted to shut him down for innings limits. They had previously DL'd several other of their young guns (Nola, Eflin), had just one day off over the last 13 days of the season, and so essentially find themselves with just two rested and ready starters to cover the final three days. Not an ideal situation, but hardly a big crime either.

Frayed Knot Sep 30 2016 01:07 PM Re: Playoff Odds

OK, so our odds took bit of a hit last night with the double out-of-town wins (why couldn't one of them have just Tied!! like the Cubs & Pirates?!?). The same eight scenarios still exist -- two outright misses plus six ties of some sort -- for us NOT clinching a free and clear WC spot this weekend, but seeing as how the overall number of possibilities have gone down and the ones that disappeared and are no longer possible (Cards and/or Giants losing 4 straight!) were all good ones for us, the chance of one of those eight non-clinching situations showing up got a little larger. There are now 64 combinations still possible (4 x 4 x 4) and 56 of them get us in (87.5%) although weighting the outcomes to reflect that 2-1 or 1-2 splits are more likely for all the teams than are 3-0 or 0-3 sweeps puts the odds at: Eliminated by Sunday = 0.78% -- (Mets get swept while Cards win 3 + Giants win 2, or Mets get swept while Cards win 3 + Giants win 3) 2-Way Tie w/StL = 2.93% 2-Way Tie w/SFG = 0.59% 3-Way Tie = 4.10% METS WIN!!! = 91.6% BP says 96.5% - which is probably where it should be if you figure 91.6% plus the odds of surviving any two or three way play-in tussles.

Frayed Knot Oct 01 2016 12:27 PM Re: Playoff Odds

So did we ever establish how the tie is broken if we tie the Cardinals for the two WC slots? There's one and only one combination in which that situation can come up (out of a possible 27): if we lose both remaining games, the Giants lose both of theirs, and the Cardinals win twice. Those outcomes would leave us and the Cards tied at 86 wins with Giants on the outside looking in with 85. There'd be no play-in game at that point but I'm not sure of the tie-breaking procedure to determine who's #1, who's #2 and therefore where Wednesday's game is to be played. So aside from that, like I said there are 27 remaining combinations of outcomes (3 x 3 x 3) - We wind up in the #1 WC slot in 22 of them, 20 of them free and clear of both teams plus two others where we're tied w/the Giants for slot #1 which is the same as winning outright since we hold the tie-breaker. ODDS = 89.07% - In two other cases we wind up with WC #2 all to ourselves: Mets lose twice + Giants win twice + Cards either lose once or lose twice. ODDS = 4.69% - There's the one case mentioned above where we tie with the Cards for WC #1 with SF out of it: ODDS = 1.56% So that's 25 of the 27 cases where we're assured of playing one game for the right to meet the Cubs. TOTAL ODDS = 95.32% That leaves the two we don't want to see where we'll be forced into a Monday play-in or maybe even a Monday/Tuesday play-in: - Mets lose both, Giants win both, Cards win both: This puts us in a play-in vs StL for WC #2. ODDS = 1.56% OR - Mets lose both, Giants win once, Cards win both: that outcome throws us all into a 3-way tie and multiple play-in games which I don't even know how they'd be set up. ODDS = 3.13%

Benjamin Grimm Oct 01 2016 12:43 PM Re: Playoff Odds

The Cardinals have the home field over the Mets because the next tiebreaker after head-to-head is record within the division. The Mets, so far, are 39-35 against N.L. East teams, and the Cardinals are 40-34 against the Central. If the Mets end up tied with the Cardinals, it would mean that the Mets ended up 39-37 and the Cardinals 42-34. So if the Mets have to play the Cardinals on Monday to break a two-team tie it will be in St. Louis.

Frayed Knot Oct 01 2016 12:53 PM Re: Playoff Odds Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Oct 01 2016 12:59 PM

OK, so that makes it: WC #1 = 89.07% WC #2 = 6.25% 2-Way Tie w/Cards = 1.56% 3-Way Tie = 3.13% BP puts us in at 98%, which, if you add my WC #1 odds to WC #2 odds then give us a 50/50 shot at prevailing in a 2-Way play-in and a 1/3 shot at surviving a 3-Way play-in 89.07 + 6.25 + 0.78 + 1.565 = 97.665 I suspect BP is checking their work against mine but I don't know that for sure.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 01 2016 12:53 PM Re: Playoff Odds

And then, for the three-team tie, there's this. I hope I'm interpreting everything correctly. • If Club 1 and 2 have identical records against one another, but each has a better record against Club 3, then Clubs 1 and 2 would follow the two-Club tiebreak rules to break their tie to pick the first designation. The Mets and Cardinals are both 4-3 against the Giants, and 3-3 against each other, so in this scenario the Giants are Club 3. Since the Cardinals win the tiebreaker against the Mets, they'd be Club 1. Three-Club Tie for Two Wild Card Spots: After Clubs have been assigned their A, B and C designations, Club A would host Club B. The winner of the game would be declared one Wild Card winner. Club C would then host the loser of the game between Club A and Club B to determine the second Wild Card Club. So the Cardinals are Club A, the Mets are Club B, and the Giants are Club C. The Mets would play the Cardinals on Monday in St. Louis. If they win, they get Tuesday off while the Giants and Cardinals play each other. If the Cardinals win, the Mets stay in St. Louis to play Wednesday's Wild Card game. If the Giants win, both teams fly to New York to play Wednesday's game at Citi Field. If the Mets lose Monday's game, they're not eliminated. They'd go to San Francisco* to play the Giants on Tuesday, and if they win they'd fly back to St. Louis to play Wednesday's Wild Card game. * I would have guessed that this game would be played in New York, but the rule does say that Club C would be the host.

Frayed Knot Oct 01 2016 01:05 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Benjamin Grimm wrote: If the Mets lose Monday's game, they're not eliminated. They'd go to San Francisco* to play the Giants on Tuesday, and if they win they'd fly back to St. Louis to play Wednesday's Wild Card game. * I would have guessed that this game would be played in New York, but the rule does say that Club C would be the host. I guess that's based on the idea that the only club who doesn't get the chance to lose and still survive, SF in this case, should have that game at home and also not have to suffer the logistical nightmare of taking a last-minute (and possibly cross-country) flight only after the results of the first game are known for a game the next day. The loser of play-in game #1 at least knows where they're headed if/when they lose.

Gwreck Oct 01 2016 02:32 PM Re: Playoff Odds Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Oct 01 2016 02:52 PM

[crossout:27o17c0d]In the scenario where 3 teams tie for 2 wild card slots, "Club B" is the preferred designation, because you get two chances to make the wild card game. Yes, both are on the road, but it's far better to have two chances than one. I would expect the Cardinals to be "Club B" and for the Mets to be "Club A" if it came to a 3-team tiebreak. The Mets would host the Cardinals in a tie-breaker game on Monday. If the Mets win that game, they host the Wild-Card game on Wednesday.[/crossout:27o17c0d] Nevermind

Benjamin Grimm Oct 01 2016 02:40 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Don't both Club A and Club B get two chances? It's only Club C that's limited to one chance, because the loser of A vs. B will always go on to play C.

Gwreck Oct 01 2016 02:51 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Ah, I see now. Club C faces EITHER Club A or B. It is not a guarantee that they face Club B.

Chad Ochoseis Oct 01 2016 04:16 PM Re: Playoff Odds

So aside from that, like I said there are 27 remaining combinations of outcomes (3 x 3 x 3) - We wind up in the #1 WC slot in 22 of them, 20 of them free and clear of both teams plus two others where we're tied w/the Giants for slot #1 which is the same as winning outright since we hold the tie-breaker. ODDS = 89.07% - In two other cases we wind up with WC #2 all to ourselves: Mets lose twice + Giants win twice + Cards either lose once or lose twice. ODDS = 4.69% - There's the one case mentioned above where we tie with the Cards for WC #1 with SF out of it: ODDS = 1.56% So that's 25 of the 27 cases where we're assured of playing one game for the right to meet the Cubs. TOTAL ODDS = 95.32% That leaves the two we don't want to see where we'll be forced into a Monday play-in or maybe even a Monday/Tuesday play-in: - Mets lose both, Giants win both, Cards win both: This puts us in a play-in vs StL for WC #2. ODDS = 1.56% OR - Mets lose both, Giants win once, Cards win both: that outcome throws us all into a 3-way tie and multiple play-in games which I don't even know how they'd be set up. ODDS = 3.13% Subtle error here in the calc - assuming 50% probability of a win of any given game, each team has a 25% likelihood of winning 0 games, a 50% likelihood of winning 1, and a 25% likelihood of winning 2. The calc above doesn't take into account that a team is twice as likely to win exactly one game than zero or two. There are four possible outcomes for each team - win none (one outcome), win one (two outcomes), or win two (one outcome). So 4^3 = 64 outcomes in total. The only outcomes under which the Mets don't win the wild card are these: Cards win 2, Mets win 0, Giants win 1. 2 out of 64 ways that this can happen (1 way for the Cards to win 2 * 1 way for the Mets to win 0 * 2 ways for the Giants to win 1). If this happens, there's a 3-way tie [crossout]and the Mets still have only a 1/3 probability of not winning a wild card. So the probability of Mets losing the WC this way is (2/64)*(1/3) = 2/192[/crossout] OE - in a 3 way tie, the Mets have a 1/4 probability of not winning a WC, because of the way the tiebreaker works. So prob of Mets losing this way is (2/64)*(1/4) = 2/256 Cards win 2, Mets win 0, Giants win 2. Only one way that this can happen, and it leads to the Mets and Cards tying for WC2, so there's still only a 1/2 probability that the Mets lose the WC even if it were to happen. So the probability of the Mets losing the WC this way is (1/64)*(1/2) = 1/128. The outcomes are mutually exclusive, so you can add them. [crossout]2/192[/crossout] 2/256 + 1/128 = [crossout]7/384[/crossout] 1/64 probability that the Mets don't get the WC. So there's a [crossout]377/384 = 98.2%[/crossout] 63/64 = 98.4% probability that the Mets do get the WC. I'm not motivated enough to figure out the probabilities of WC1 and WC2. The real probability is much higher, of course, because of strength of opponents (also, the Dodgers still have something to play for, and the Pirates and Phillies don't).

Frayed Knot Oct 01 2016 05:25 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Chad Ochoseis wrote: Subtle error here in the calc - assuming 50% probability of a win of any given game, each team has a 25% likelihood of winning 0 games, a 50% likelihood of winning 1, and a 25% likelihood of winning 2. The calc above doesn't take into account that a team is twice as likely to win exactly one game than zero or two. There are four possible outcomes for each team - win none (one outcome), win one (two outcomes), or win two (one outcome). So 4^3 = 64 outcomes in total. I took those into consideration in my calculations. Rather than treating a 1-1 finish as two different outcomes I counted it as one but with twice the likelihood of happening as compared to either 2-0 or 0-2. And, yes, the 3-way playoff outcome is more complicated that I stated. I actually should have given the Mets a 2 of 3 shot at coming out of it since 2 of the 3 teams will survive but, like you said, it's not that simple either.

Ashie62 Oct 01 2016 06:16 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Alot of sliderules are breaking. I think the Mets are guaranteed a game Monday. Thats all I got. I'm stumped.

Frayed Knot Oct 01 2016 08:14 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Odds are 100% of a game a CitiField on Wednesday.

Chad Ochoseis Oct 01 2016 08:21 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Frayed Knot wrote: Odds are 100% of a game a CitiField on Wednesday. One minute ahead of me! This has been a fun thread for those of us who know more about math than baseball.

Frayed Knot Oct 01 2016 08:34 PM Re: Playoff Odds

Eight possibilities left and half of them will disappear within the next three hours or so. If Cardinals [u:6kwfayzu]Lose[/u:6kwfayzu] on Sunday AND ... - Giants Win Saturday + Win Sunday -- SF is WC #2 - Giants Win Saturday + Lose Sunday -- SF is WC #2 - Giants Lose Saturday + Win Sunday -- SF is WC #2 - Giants lose both days = Tie for WC #2 If Cardinals [u:6kwfayzu]Win[/u:6kwfayzu] on Sunday AND ... - Giants Win Saturday + Win Sunday -- SF is WC #2 - Giants Win Saturday + Lose Sunday -- Tie for WC #2 - Giants Lose Saturday + Win Sunday -- Tie for WC #2 - Giants Lose both days -- StL is WC #2 Giants as WC = 50.0 % Cards as WC = 12.5 % Tie for WC = 37.5 % C'MON TIE!!!!

Frayed Knot Oct 01 2016 11:39 PM Re: Playoff Odds

And then there were four ... and only one causes a tie. Giants Win + Cards Win = Giants as #2 WC Giants Win + Cards Lose = Giants as #2 WC Giants Lose + Cards Lose = Giants as #2 WC Giants Lose + Cards Win = Monday Play-in Game for #2 WC So it's around an 87.5% shot that we get the Giants and 12.5% that we get a Wednesday visit from the Cardinals - unless you have reason to suspect that one team has a notable advantage over another in either of tomorrow's two games or in a potential Monday play-in.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 01 2016 11:56 PM Re: Playoff Odds

And the Cardinals would be the home team if there's a Monday game, because of their 4-3 record against the Giants.