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Q.O. for Walker

Of course!

15 votes

Of course ... [i:cg3w0290]NOT![/i:cg3w0290]

7 votes

Edgy MD Oct 14 2016 06:09 PM

Neil Walker: Looking at a qualifying offer of $17.2 million. Coming off a good year, but a year that ended on the DL. A year that ended with surgery.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 14 2016 06:16 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

My feeling isn't as strong as "of course not" but I voted no. Spend that $17 million elsewhere.

Edgy MD Oct 14 2016 06:20 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Well, the idea isn't so much to spend it on him, as to gain a free first-round draft choice when he passes that up for a longer-term contract with less annual value, a la Murphy 2016. If he accepts, they may opt to trade him, even if that means eating $2-4 million.

d'Kong76 Oct 14 2016 06:24 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Oct 14 2016 06:25 PM

Thanks for the contributions, but no. Depending on how things shake out $17 mil could approach 20% of the team's payroll. For Walker? No.

Ceetar Oct 14 2016 06:25 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

obviously. He won't accept, there are too many teams that need 2B and not enough 2B to go around, which is exactly why you offer him, because even if he takes it, there is one less chip on the market but the same amount of teams and now you have one of the chips. Right now what's the worst case? that they keep him and he stays/gets hurt again and is useless? Could happen to anyone. You could ease him in and use Reyes at second too. I suspect the Mets expect him back, though it might be a negotiated deal. I suspect letting Herrera go means they weren't super worried about needing to fill the position.

Ashie62 Oct 14 2016 06:33 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

No way is he back,

Edgy MD Oct 14 2016 07:08 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

If you believe that, then that's why you make the offer, no?

Frayed Knot Oct 14 2016 07:10 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Yeah, whether or not he ultimately returns and whether or not they extend the qualifying offer to him are separate questions, quite possibly with different answers. The reason guys Walker's age (turned 30 a month ago) turn down QOs (tempting as they may be) is that they don't want to delay, or possibly ruin with a bad year or an injury, what is often their first chance at hitting the FA market. Six months younger than last year's QO-offered 2nd sacker (so actually six months older at FA time since it's a year later) Walker is a switch-hitter, a better defensive player, and, prior to this past season anyway, had a slightly better offensive career going as compared to Muffy [113 OPS+ vs 109]. Would it wildly screw up their plans if he opts to accept rather than hit the FA market? Yeah probably as I think they view 2B as the spot with probably the most in-house options: (in no particular order) Flores, Reynolds, Cecchini, Reyes, TJ Rivera As mentioned they could trade him after the "signing" (the mere act of agreeing is the equivalent of signing) although it wouldn't be easy to get equal value if other teams know they have to deal him. So, yeah, I suspect they will do the offer and see how it plays.

TransMonk Oct 14 2016 07:16 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I make the offer.

Fman99 Oct 14 2016 07:29 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Don't offer it. He's damaged goods until he proves otherwise.

smg58 Oct 14 2016 07:40 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I make the offer. The worst case scenario is a one-year-deal for somebody who was pretty good for us before the injury. PS $17.4M is the lowest that Fangraphs has him worth over the last six seasons. Seeing that made the choice really easy.

seawolf17 Oct 14 2016 08:02 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I'm a no. Not coming off an injury. Settle for a two-year, $25M kind of deal? Maybe.

Edgy MD Oct 14 2016 08:25 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Well, if you want to bring him back, making a qualifying offer is generally something of a prelude to re-signing the guy, isn't it?

seawolf17 Oct 14 2016 08:26 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Not necessarily. Make the offer now. If he's not interested, wish him the best and send him on his way.

Centerfield Oct 14 2016 08:30 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

You people are crazy. Of course you make the offer. Free draft pick. He's a middle infielder in the middle of his prime who hits 20+ HR's. He's getting a multi-year deal for big money. And if he accepts it? You just got a power-hitting 2nd baseman in his prime on a one year commitment. Win win.

Centerfield Oct 14 2016 08:32 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

And by the way, if you buy the Mets philosophy, that they are not against spending money, but against long-term commitments, there is no way you don't make the QO. Not saying I necessarily buy this, but just something to keep in mind.

Edgy MD Oct 15 2016 07:37 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

seawolf17 wrote: Not necessarily. Make the offer now. If he's not interested, wish him the best and send him on his way. No, I mean to say that two-year offer is unlikely to happen if the QO isn't extended first.

Chad Ochoseis Oct 15 2016 11:15 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Seems to be straightforward. If there's a good chance that he'll recover from surgery, he's worth the QO. If not, not. From this article, it sounds like microdisectomies have a good recovery rate: [url]http://www.medicaldaily.com/pros-and-complications-microdiscectomy-and-why-tiger-woods-missing-masters-back-surgery-273900 So, QOing him is the easy part. The hard part is whether to actually try to keep him (3 years, 45M?) or let him walk and take a chance with Flores/Rivera/Reynolds/Reyes.

Nymr83 Oct 16 2016 12:37 AM Re: Q.O. for Walker

It seems obvious to me that you make the offer. As mentioned they could trade him after the "signing" (the mere act of agreeing is the equivalent of signing) although it wouldn't be easy to get equal value if other teams know they have to deal him. if you don't make the offer, you get NOTHING, not "equal value", in a trade, since there wouldn't be a trade. so the question to ask (assuming the Mets don't want him and would try to trade him if he accepts) is not about equal value - its about whether you would trade the dollars you are eating in the trade for the players you are getting back. If, for example, you think you'd need to eat 5 million to trade him to the Dodgers for Alex Wood the proper question is "would I trade 5 million for Alex Wood"? - because you never planned on keeping Walker anyway.

Rockin' Doc Oct 16 2016 01:08 AM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I would make the offer. I don't expect him to accept it, so you want to at least get the draft pick when he signs elsewhere. If he surprises the Mets by accepting the QO, then you have a solid bat for the line up.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Oct 16 2016 01:08 AM Re: Q.O. for Walker

It is an ABSOLUTE no-brainer. You make the offer. Free draft pick OR one year challenge deal for a nice piece of a contending lineup OR a shortish multiyear, mutually-agreeable deal for the same. Seriously... how is this even a question for you nay-sayers?

d'Kong76 Oct 16 2016 01:12 AM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I like to nay-say and didn't quite grasp all the details?

Frayed Knot Oct 16 2016 01:31 AM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Nymr83 wrote: if you don't make the offer, you get NOTHING, not "equal value", in a trade, since there wouldn't be a trade. so the question to ask (assuming the Mets don't want him and would try to trade him if he accepts) is not about equal value - its about whether you would trade the dollars you are eating in the trade for the players you are getting back. If, for example, you think you'd need to eat 5 million to trade him to the Dodgers for Alex Wood the proper question is "would I trade 5 million for Alex Wood"? - because you never planned on keeping Walker anyway. Sure. I was just trying to dissuade anyone from getting the idea that if Walker unexpectedly accepts the QO that he could just then be easily flipped for an equivalent player. More likely the return on dealing him would be a lower level player or a high salary that the other team doesn't want. But, yeah, certainly better than no return at all.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 17 2016 04:22 AM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Do you think this decision is tied in to what the Mets think and expect of David Wright? If you think Walker's damaged goods, then based on what little I know, Wright appears to be damaged goods x10.

Edgy MD Oct 17 2016 01:19 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Possibly, but I think it comes down to whether Neil Walker is an asset at $17.2 million for one year, or something more like a liability.

Centerfield Oct 17 2016 01:20 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

The decision on Walker really should have nothing to do with Wright. Other than the fact that both injuries relate to the back, the two injuries could not be more different. One is a relatively common and quick procedure with a high chance of recovery, while the other is a degenerative career-ending condition. Neil Walker was the Mets' second best hitter this year. If you take his bat out of an already anemic offense, we are looking at some heavy listing for the rest of the off-season.

Frayed Knot Oct 17 2016 01:42 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

That they might consider Walker in their plans for 2017 based on how Wright's progress/lack of is supposedly going is certainly a possibility, but I think the decision of to QO or not to QO stands on its own. Just as with Murphy last year, you offer so as to secure a future draft pick even if resigning him isn't 'Plan A'. The only way you don't would be if it's decided that not only is Walker completely out of all 2017 plans but it also completely screws up everything should he unexpectedly accept. That Walker might accept the QO remains a possibility. Prior to a year or two ago no player ever accepted a QO, but I believe a couple did last year and then there were the cases of Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler, and Howie Kendrick all of whom rejected QOs only to find themselves going most of the winter without offers before agreeing to one-year contracts very late and for less than what they rejected because the market dried up when it turned out that teams were more hostile than expected towards FAs with draft picks attached to them. * Kendrick - got a one year, $10 mil deal which he didn't sign until early February and was forced to play a lot of OF as opposed to his usual 2B in order to get semi-regular ABs * Desmond - Rangers, one year, $7 mil deal which he didn't sign until Feb 29th. He also was forced to switch to the outfield, a move which turned out well for him although it'll probably prevent him from selling himself as a SS when he hits the market again this year * Fowler - and odd winter for him as he supposedly had a three-year offer w/Baltimore before suddenly showing up at Cubs spring training in late February on a one-year $9 mil deal

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 17 2016 01:50 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Not to suggest he was at all bad, but I think Walker in general looked better than he actually was, and saying he was the club's "second best hitter" is a bit misleading as he was miles behind the first-best and at best, inches in front of the next-best. He also disappeared at times, both on and off the DL, and had the kind of season that looks like a massive outlier given his track record, particularly as it came to his best offensive contribution, power vs. lefthanded pitching. Otherwise, he didn't walk enough, or hit enough for xtra bases when he wasn't parking them. The guy was a career .373 slugger vs LHP career but jacked that up to .610 this year! That doesn't look sustainable, especially given he'll be 31 and coming off back surgery. I'll also suggest he was the very definition of a guy swept up in the rising offensive seas leaguewide, and so his particular contribution could probably be replicated by a lot of guys with a decent stick and the same opportunity. So I'm highly suspicious of Walker going forward, and to the extent he'll cost $17M just to have back, more than willing to kiss him goodbye and take my chances with several cheaper in-house candidates or even a less costly import. And if he's back, well great. Every good team could use a switch-hitting veteran infield backup.

Centerfield Oct 17 2016 02:17 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Yeah, Walker performed about 50 points higher than his career OPS, almost all of that coming from his increased production from the right side. Can he replicate that? No clue, but I would be skeptical. And even in this, a strong year for him, he was almost Dudian in his streakiness. But his HR production has been 16, 23, 16, and 23 in his last four seasons (is he due for another 16?), so that's something. That being said, he was, unquestionably, one of the top hitters on this team. 2nd in OPS, 3rd in OWAR, even though he missed the last 6 weeks of the season. If you lose him, you will have to make up that lost production somewhere else (I don't believe TJ Rivera will sustain a .333 average, and talk about a guy who never walks!). If we retain Cespedes, I'd be fine with going cheap at 2B and try to use those resources to upgrade other areas. But if Cespedes walks, and Walker walks, and Cabrera regresses back toward career norms, you are looking at a 26th ranked offense that just lost their top three guys. And I do agree that losses of key players can be balanced out by incremental increases in other positions, but if you lose Ces and Walker, you are running out of positions to upgrade, just to break even.

Ceetar Oct 17 2016 03:07 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Centerfield wrote: And I do agree that losses of key players can be balanced out by incremental increases in other positions, but if you lose Ces and Walker, you are running out of positions to upgrade, just to break even. hell, breaking even is never breaking even anyway since players don't play the same year to year. But just replacing Loney/Campbell's AB with Duda's, you've made up the difference between Cespedes and a decent LF. Likely beyond the difference between Cespedes and Conforto. And if you can add even 70 games worth of Wright's bat into the IF mix. The problem is mostly that you've got various options at a lot of places and it's a gambling game to see which ones are going to hit and which aren't and trying to spend money on bringing in guys that are going to replace the ones that aren't going to hit.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 17 2016 03:20 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I'm saying it right now: Cecchini + Flores + Reyes + Rivera > Walker 2017

Mets Guy in Michigan Oct 17 2016 04:12 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Silly question: We just have to make the offer to get the draft pick, right? If we offer, he can reject and become a free agent? If we don't offer, he'll become a free agent with no compensation headed our way? So, the question is whether he'd accept the qualifying offer should we extend it? If the worst-case scenario is that he accepts and we have a 20+ homer second baseman who plays decent D is is still around 30 years old for a salary that is rather high, but not ridiculous (only in the comparative world of baseball salaries), I don't mind that.

Centerfield Oct 17 2016 06:37 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'm saying it right now: Cecchini + Flores + Reyes + Rivera > Walker 2017 That may well happen. I suspect Walker will regress a bit in 2017. Also, if the Mets have Kelly Johnson to balance out from the left side, then the chances are even better. But if you are planning for next season, you can't count on that happening. It's reasonable for the Mets to expect less production from 2B if Walker leaves, and if that happens, it would be prudent for them to make improvements elsewhere. I just hope when we start spring training, we have legitimate reasons to be optimistic, and that the plan to improve on 87 wins isn't just "be healthier".

Centerfield Oct 17 2016 06:39 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Mets Guy in Michigan wrote: Silly question: We just have to make the offer to get the draft pick, right? If we offer, he can reject and become a free agent? If we don't offer, he'll become a free agent with no compensation headed our way? So, the question is whether he'd accept the qualifying offer should we extend it? If the worst-case scenario is that he accepts and we have a 20+ homer second baseman who plays decent D is is still around 30 years old for a salary that is rather high, but not ridiculous (only in the comparative world of baseball salaries), I don't mind that. Yes, yes, yes and agreed.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 17 2016 06:45 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Centerfield wrote: I'm saying it right now: Cecchini + Flores + Reyes + Rivera > Walker 2017 That may well happen. I suspect Walker will regress a bit in 2017. Also, if the Mets have Kelly Johnson to balance out from the left side, then the chances are even better. But if you are planning for next season, you can't count on that happening. Sure I can. I just did! I think Reyes is a better guy to have than Walker just on the face of it, especially given the $$. I'm less of a believer that TJR showed his true self last year, probably just his best self (decent RH pop, low OBP). Flores can hit. Cecchini in a very small sample looked like *he* could also hit, plus he's young, and he walks. I am counting on all of them.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 17 2016 06:56 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Centerfield wrote: The decision on Walker really should have nothing to do with Wright. Other than the fact that both injuries relate to the back, the two injuries could not be more different. I wasn't suggesting that this has anything to do with either the nature or the similarity of the injuries to Wright and Walker. If the Mets think that they can count on Wright to play 3/4 time, they might go with a platoon of Wright/Flores/Reyes to cover second and third, thinking that they won't need Walker. In this scenario, Wright's recovery is relevant to whether they QO Walker.

Centerfield Oct 17 2016 08:19 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Sorry, I misread your intent. I don't think the Mets, or anyone else, should count on anything from David Wright going forward.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 17 2016 08:45 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Yeah, that's sad but true.

Frayed Knot Oct 17 2016 09:59 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

QO Facks: - offers need to be made by five days after the end of the World Series at which point the player has seven days to accept or reject - this will be the fifth year of the QO system for determining FA compensation - 20 QOs were extended last winter, the most of any year so far - prior to last year no player had accepted the QO but then three did just that last November: Colby Rasmus - Astros; Matt Weiters - Baltimore; Brett Anderson - Dodgers. Also Marco Estrada of Toronto agreed to a two-year deal during the seven day window prior to accepting or rejecting. The 16 remaining players wound up as FAs And I also found this little nugget: If a player takes qualifying offer he cannot be traded (without his consent) until June 15 of the following season, and that even if a player grants such consent, only $50K in cash can be exchanged as part of the trade. So if they opt to extend the offer to Walker then they better be prepared for at least the possibility that he accepts it.

Edgy MD Oct 17 2016 10:25 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

That changes the reckoning significantly.

MFS62 Oct 18 2016 01:17 AM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I heard that the one year QO is around $14 million(or more). I don't think that's worth it for Walker. The money can be better used. As others have mentioned, the offer should be made. (some return VS no return) But I hope he rejects it. Later

Frayed Knot Oct 18 2016 02:03 AM Re: Q.O. for Walker

As mentioned at the top of this thread, the QO for this winter is $17.2 million. The QO is re-set each year by taking the average of the top 125 salaries in the game

Gwreck Oct 18 2016 04:44 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Centerfield wrote: You people are crazy. Of course you make the offer. Free draft pick. He's a middle infielder in the middle of his prime who hits 20+ HR's. He's getting a multi-year deal for big money. And if he accepts it? You just got a power-hitting 2nd baseman in his prime on a one year commitment. Win win. Exactly. This is exactly correct.

Mets Guy in Michigan Oct 18 2016 07:45 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Gwreck wrote: Centerfield wrote: You people are crazy. Of course you make the offer. Free draft pick. He's a middle infielder in the middle of his prime who hits 20+ HR's. He's getting a multi-year deal for big money. And if he accepts it? You just got a power-hitting 2nd baseman in his prime on a one year commitment. Win win. Exactly. This is exactly correct. I think a fair question is whether he'd accept it. Does he think he'd have a shot at a multi-year deal worth more with another team? Not sure what the market is like for second basemen this year.

Ceetar Oct 18 2016 09:42 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Mets Guy in Michigan wrote: I think a fair question is whether he'd accept it. Does he think he'd have a shot at a multi-year deal worth more with another team? Not sure what the market is like for second basemen this year. Gordon Beckham (30) Emmanuel Burriss (32) Chris Coghlan (32) Daniel Descalso (30) Stephen Drew (34) Johnny Giavotella (29) Grant Green (29) Kelly Johnson (35) Tyler Ladendorf (29) Jimmy Paredes (28) Steve Pearce (34) Eric Sogard (31) Ruben Tejada (27) Chase Utley (38) Neil Walker (31)

Benjamin Grimm Oct 18 2016 10:38 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Tejada and Utley, huh? For some reason I think those names have been linked before.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 19 2016 12:10 AM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Here's something to think about: If the Mets were to QO Walker, then why? What do you think the Mets would prefer to get from that QO? A draft pick, or one year's worth of Walker?

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 19 2016 02:07 AM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I think they'd like $17M to give to Cespedes

Frayed Knot Oct 19 2016 03:11 AM Re: Q.O. for Walker

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Here's something to think about: If the Mets were to QO Walker, then why? The 'Why' has been discussed for two pages now. What do you think the Mets would prefer to get from that QO? A draft pick, or one year's worth of Walker? I think they'd prefer he turn the QO down. If he does it still wouldn't preclude them from negotiating with Walker on a different deal, they'd just have to do so in the face of open competition. But they'd also keep the possibility of going with a cheaper option at 2B on the table while using the $17 mil for someone/somewhere else AND have an extra draft pick next June.

Centerfield Oct 19 2016 01:39 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Mets Guy in Michigan wrote: Gwreck wrote: Centerfield wrote: You people are crazy. Of course you make the offer. Free draft pick. He's a middle infielder in the middle of his prime who hits 20+ HR's. He's getting a multi-year deal for big money. And if he accepts it? You just got a power-hitting 2nd baseman in his prime on a one year commitment. Win win. Exactly. This is exactly correct. I think a fair question is whether he'd accept it. Does he think he'd have a shot at a multi-year deal worth more with another team? Not sure what the market is like for second basemen this year. It's a fair question to ask. And the answer is there is virtually no chance he would accept it. Keep in mind, the timing of the QO makes it an idiotic decision if Walker decides to take it. Walker profiles much like Murphy did last off-season. And Murphy eventually got a 3 year, 37 million deal. With a much weaker free-agent class, and better defense in his pocket, Walker sets up well for this off-season. If Walker were to take the QO, he'd basically have to give up on any market for him before it ever has a chance to develop. Remember, it's not like he can take the QO and put it into his back pocket. He has to make his call within 7 days. Only a great fool would give up on a multi-year deal before it ever has a chance to develop. Neil Walker is not a great fool. So he can clearly not choose the wine in front of him.

Edgy MD Oct 19 2016 01:50 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Murphy, on the other hand, was reduced to shitting his pants, wondering if he was holding a one-way ticket to Desmondville, before signing a three-year deal at a disappointing rate that he admitted was the only offer he got, and the Nats admitted their braintrust was split about offering. Nobody knows where the market is going, and turning down money on the table with hopes of a better long-term offer from a team that also has to give up a first-round pick is never risk-free proposition, and certainly not from a guy whose season ended on the operating table. If a guy who carried his team through the post season, homering on nightly basis against baseball's very best pitchers, can't go forward with certainty, I imagine few can. Here's my guess: I say he rejects the qualifying offer if Hillary Clinton is elected, but grabs it anxiously and stuffs it in his pants if Donald Trump is elected.

Frayed Knot Oct 19 2016 02:16 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Yeah, Murph was the Nats' third choice after Zobrist rejected them and Brandon Phillips vetoed a trade. As mentioned already, there were three players (out of 20) who accepted QO's last year plus another who negotiated a two-year deal within the window so accepting isn't out of the question. There were also three others who wound up sweating it out even longer than Murphy, not signing until late February and then only one-year deals at rates sometimes half what the QO was and for the only teams that would have them with forced position changes mixed in. So while I suspect Walker will reject, I don't think it's a slam-dunk by any means.

Ceetar Oct 19 2016 02:48 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

there's some options here, but this is a much better crop for 2017-2018. Of course Walker wants to try to get his multi-year deal now rather than enter the market against a larger supply Dustin Ackley (30) Jose Altuve (28) — $6MM club option Alexi Amarista (29) Darwin Barney (32) Danny Espinosa (31) Ryan Flaherty (31) Logan Forsythe (31) — $8.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout Brett Lawrie (28) Jed Lowrie (34) — $6MM club option with a $1MM buyout Howie Kendrick (34) Ian Kinsler (36) — $10MM club option with a $5MM buyout Eduardo Nunez (31) Cliff Pennington (34) Brandon Phillips (37) Eric Sogard (32)

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 19 2016 03:04 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I'll say it again: I think everyone is overestimating how good Walker really is and acting as though $17M is the right salary. He's was a slightly above average 2Bman offensively who hit a career high HRs and went wildly off the charts in a subset of his game that he historically struggled at. I don't like to argue WAR because I'm suspicious of it generally and don;t really understand it, but if you do consider 2016 despite the career high in HRs was his "worst" WAR year offensively in his career. Consider that at the "bargain" price we got him for last season all it cost was an injured and declining Jon Niese. Consider he's coming off back surgery. I'm not trying to slog Walker but there's an argument he's already on the downhill yet looking at a 63% salary increase. If we offer the QO I think he takes it right away, compromises our flexibility wrt other players owed increases due to arbitration or re-signing, and unnecessarily creates a logjam at one of the few places where our depth could serve us more efficiently.

Edgy MD Oct 19 2016 03:23 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Also keep in mind, even Céspedes was in danger of being left at the altar last off-season. It was a bearish market. I'm not sure it's going to change. With the poor impulse control of George Steinbrenner out the picture, teams get more sophisticated about their offseason shopping every year.

Ceetar Oct 19 2016 03:32 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: If we offer the QO I think he takes it right away, compromises our flexibility wrt other players owed increases due to arbitration or re-signing, and unnecessarily creates a logjam at one of the few places where our depth could serve us more efficiently. It's extremely unlikely he takes it based on any history with it. I also don't think it hurts the flexibility too much. Also the Mets have a lot more information in regards to this, as they've talked with teams about trades and have to have a better idea of who wants a 2B and what not. Then again, maybe the idea that all they could get for Herrera was Bruce speaks to lack of demand for 2B? I think you're overstating the logjam more than we're overstating Walker's value though. 12/38 players with at least 300 PA at 2B in terms of wRC+. That's a little bit more than above average and it's asking a lot to ask any of the players we've got to manage that, plus he played good defense. Not to mention that some of the logjam might be used to backup/play third. Also there was a home run spike in baseball in general, so while yes he had a career high SLG (though not ISO), a lot of players did last year.

Frayed Knot Oct 19 2016 03:45 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I don't like to argue WAR because I'm suspicious of it generally and don;t really understand it, but if you do consider 2016 despite the career high in HRs was his "worst" WAR year offensively in his career. WAR is a cumulative stat so his "lowest" mark this year was entirely due to this season falling as much as 200 ABs short of his previous five seasons (458 this year vs 530 to 662), most of that obviously due to the late season injury. Now maybe you could argue that missing the ABs is a sign of aging but it's not one of his hitting falling off. A rate stat like Runs Created per/Game shows this to be his best season other than his first full one back in 2010. The oddity in his season was his dearth of doubles.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 19 2016 03:56 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Fair enuf, serves me right for talking out of my ass on WAR. What is it good for? I still think he's destined to wind up in Pittsburgh as a reserve.

Frayed Knot Oct 19 2016 05:04 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I also don't think that anyone is arguing that $17 mil is the 'Right' salary for him, merely the one you have to offer in order to snag a draft pick. And that even if he upsets the apple cart by accepting and then regresses to the point where that salary turns out to be twice as much as what he 'earns' in 2017, well hell then he's overpaid for one year but anyone can survive that. Either way, it's hard to see him falling-off enough to where he becomes backup material, at least not for another year or two yet, and his inconsistencies this past season weren't any worse than those of most other hitters. He had a rough month of June, no big deal. No worse certainly than Cespedes's September, most of Grandy's first half, or anything Conforto did starting the 1st of May.

Frayed Knot Nov 07 2016 01:47 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Today is QO day in MLB - so be sure to have your Qualifying Offers (or Quesadilla Orders) ready to go by the midnight EST deadline. Free Agents can then start signing, with their original team or with any other, as early as tomorrow. Now if this were the NFL it would mean that something like 80% of FA contracts would be in the books by around noon on the first day (never quite understood why that's the case), and if it were the NBA then all the big deals would already been agreed to and widely publicized weeks ahead of the start of their FA period. But for baseball this merely signals the beginning of a long and often slow process that could take some players until late February to latch on with a team.

Frayed Knot Nov 07 2016 08:38 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

QO info is rolling in but nothing from the Mets as of yet Of those either likely to get, or who might possibly receive, offers: PLAYER TEAM OFFERED DEXTER FOWLER CUBS YES KENLEY JANSEN DODGERS YES JUSTIN TURNER DODGERS YES MATT WIETERS ORIOLES NO YOENIS CESPEDES METS ??? NEIL WALKER METS ??? JEREMY HELLICKSON PHILLIES YES EDWIN ENCARNACION BLUE JAYS YES JOSE BAUTISTA BLUE JAYS YES IAN DESMOND RANGERS YES WILSON RAMOS NATIONALS ??? MARK TRUMBO ORIOLES ??? JASON CASTRO ASTROS ??? BARTOLO COLON METS ??? DOUG FISTER ASTROS ??? KENDRYS MORALES ROYALS ??? MICH MORELAND RANGERS ??? BRANDON MOSS CARDINAL ??? MIKE NAPOLI INDIANS NO MICHAEL SAUNDERS BLUE JAYS NO LUIS VALBUENA ASTROS ???

Benjamin Grimm Nov 07 2016 08:41 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

So the Orioles announced a decision on Wieters but not Trumbo?

Centerfield Nov 07 2016 08:49 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Napoli is a little surprising. 34 HR's, 800 OPS. You'd think he'd get a multiple year deal someplace. Maybe the Tribe can't take the risk that he would accept.

Lefty Specialist Nov 07 2016 08:53 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

He's coming off back surgery. I'd be afraid he'd take the offer, given that teams might be leery of signing him. They have in-house options. The 'free draft pick' has to be weighed against 'what if he accepts?'

Centerfield Nov 07 2016 08:54 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Lefty Specialist wrote: He's coming off back surgery. I'd be afraid he'd take the offer, given that teams might be leery of signing him. They have in-house options. The 'free draft pick' has to be weighed against 'what if he accepts?' That I didn't know. I also just looked him up and realized he's 35 years old. Somehow Mike Napoli has played his whole career without me noticing him until like 3 years ago.

Lefty Specialist Nov 07 2016 08:58 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Sorry, jumped into the thread late- I was talking about Walker, not Napoli.

Chad Ochoseis Nov 07 2016 09:03 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Centerfield wrote: Napoli is a little surprising. 34 HR's, 800 OPS. You'd think he'd get a multiple year deal someplace. Maybe the Tribe can't take the risk that he would accept. Not all that good in a small ballpark. Park-adjusted, the OPS+ was only 104, which is weak for an iffy-fielding 1B on the downside of his career. And the Indians have Carlos Santana, who has a 2017 team option for $12M and is basically a switch-hitting version of Napoli in his prime. And, small sample size, but Napoli was awful in the post-season. I don't see anyone taking on Napoli for more than the QO. Indians also letting Rajai Davis go, which is less of a surprise.

seawolf17 Nov 07 2016 09:21 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Wieters?!? Wow. Tough to be a former catching wunderkind.

Frayed Knot Nov 07 2016 09:29 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

seawolf17 wrote: Wieters?!? Wow. Tough to be a former catching wunderkind. Weiters was one of the three guys who accepted QOs last year rather than go directly to FA-gency, betting on himself in a way, but then didn't have a particularly good year: .243/.302/.409 which, when park adjusted, comes out to a OPS+ of 87 even if his 117 games played was more than the previous two seasons combined. But, yeah, he'll be 31 in the spring and is certainly past that whole 'Piazza with the bat and Mauer with the glove' label that got put on him back in his prospect days. Not sure what his defense is like these days but I don't know that history is all that kind to the aging of large catchers (6' 5" / 230)

John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 07 2016 10:16 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Mets extend QO for both guys. Rooting against Walker accepting.

Centerfield Nov 07 2016 10:51 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Mets extend QO for both guys. Rooting against Walker accepting. I'm torn on this. Like you, I kinda feel like Walker will regress a bit next year. But I'm also scared that none of our options would produce. Also creeping me out is that I was rooting for Murphy to decline last year, and now, I wish for all the world he had accepted. Incidentally, I bet he wishes he did too. Imagine the payday he'd get this year.

seawolf17 Nov 07 2016 11:44 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Centerfield wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Mets extend QO for both guys. Rooting against Walker accepting. I'm torn on this. Like you, I kinda feel like Walker will regress a bit next year. But I'm also scared that none of our options would produce. Also creeping me out is that I was rooting for Murphy to decline last year, and now, I wish for all the world he had accepted. Incidentally, I bet he wishes he did too. Imagine the payday he'd get this year. Considering he'd be coming off a world championship if he'd accepted? BIG bucks.

Frayed Knot Nov 08 2016 01:16 AM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I feel 2B is the easiest spot to cover with our existing personnel (Flores, TJ Rivera, Reynolds, Cecchini, etc.) so that the fall-off shouldn't be too bad and it'll be covered for about $16 million less than if he accepts which hopefully then will be put to good use elsewhere.

Frayed Knot Nov 08 2016 01:22 AM Re: Q.O. for Walker

PLAYER TEAM OFFERED DEXTER FOWLER CUBS YES KENLEY JANSEN DODGERS YES JUSTIN TURNER DODGERS YES MATT WIETERS ORIOLES NO YOENIS CESPEDES METS YES NEIL WALKER METS YES JEREMY HELLICKSON PHILLIES YES EDWIN ENCARNACION BLUE JAYS YES JOSE BAUTISTA BLUE JAYS YES IAN DESMOND RANGERS YES WILSON RAMOS NATIONALS NO MARK TRUMBO ORIOLES YES JASON CASTRO ASTROS ??? BARTOLO COLON METS ??? DOUG FISTER ASTROS ??? KENDRYS MORALES ROYALS ??? MItCH MORELAND RANGERS ??? BRANDON MOSS CARDINAL ??? MIKE NAPOLI INDIANS NO MICHAEL SAUNDERS BLUE JAYS NO LUIS VALBUENA ASTROS ??? EDINSON VOLQUEZ ROYALS NO

Frayed Knot Nov 08 2016 05:23 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

There will be TEN players this winter with Qualifying Offers attached to their Free Agency, down from a record 20 last year. DEXTER FOWLER KENSLEY JANSEN JUSTIN TURNER YOENIS CESPEDES NEIL WALKER JEREMY HELLICKSON EDWIN ENCARNACION JOSE BAUTISTA IAN DESMOND MARK TRUMBO

Edgy MD Nov 08 2016 05:48 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Poor Ian Desmond. He can't escape.

Centerfield Nov 08 2016 06:43 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

He's about to become Rich Ian Desmond.

Frayed Knot Nov 08 2016 07:04 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Centerfield wrote: He's about to become Rich Ian Desmond. That's what he thought last year too.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 09 2016 09:54 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Kevin Davidoff, in the Post, thinks that Walker may return to the Mets: I’m wondering whether his situation might be resolved by next Monday, the deadline to accept the qualifying offer. Remember, last offseason featured massive movement of second basemen. Most competing clubs have second base resolved. How many teams will be willing to sacrifice a draft pick to sign Walker, who will be coming off back surgery? I’m betting not many. I think Walker and the Mets, who really enjoyed each other, might be able to knock out a multi-year deal by Monday to save him what would be a high-risk free agency.

Ashie62 Nov 09 2016 10:23 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Saw that Walker may take the QO or better. What I don't quite get is he could have played through his injury during the critical final month for the Mets. He chose to have surgery right away as if to project his brand as an FA rather than helping the team.

Zvon Nov 09 2016 10:55 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Ashie62 wrote: What I don't quite get is he could have played through his injury during the critical final month for the Mets. He chose to have surgery right away as if to project his brand as an FA rather than helping the team. I agree with this. Which is to say I didn't get it. Is he one of the players who's wife had a child during the season?

Centerfield Nov 10 2016 01:08 AM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I think the doctors told him if he played it could get worse. Worsening a back injury going into your walk year would be a no-brainer for me.

Ashie62 Nov 10 2016 01:13 AM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I guess walk year surgery over pennant race pain would be done by just about every player nowadays. I didn't know it could have gotten worse quickly. I need to give Neil a pass.

Frayed Knot Nov 14 2016 01:36 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Today at 5PM (EST) is QO deadline time; players who have been offered the $17.2 mil QO have until that time to accept or reject. It doesn't appear that the Mets & Walker have had any substantive contract discussions concerning a longer deal so, for right now anyway, Walker has a substantial all or nothing choice to make.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 14 2016 02:06 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I'm really not sure which way I'm rooting. Sure, I'd be glad to have him back for one more year, but I really don't have a sense of how much that $17 million commitment would affect other potential moves.

Centerfield Nov 14 2016 02:17 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Same here. I wonder which way the Mets are rooting. I am trying to read into the fact that there have been no real substantive talks. I guess the simple read is that they don't want him back at all. But if you really didn't want him back, I wonder if you leak a bullshit offer (2 years, 24 million) and spur others to come in and move quickly, making it less likely that that he takes the QO. I kinda got the feeling that the Mets would only seriously consider bringing back Neil if they lost Cespedes.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 14 2016 02:24 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I guess if he accepts and they don't in fact want him, he can be traded. Or is there some clause that prevents that until June, or something like that?

Frayed Knot Nov 14 2016 02:32 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

From back on Page two of this thread: If a player takes qualifying offer he cannot be traded (without his consent) until June 15 of the following season, and that even if a player grants such consent, only $50K in cash can be exchanged as part of the trade.

Edgy MD Nov 14 2016 02:39 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

The Mets have a lot of options at second, but if he takes the offer, some of those options become trading chips. But yeah, it's hard to move those players around in a way that makes up for the fact that your budget is suddenly $17 million lighter. A team probably shouldn't make the offer unless they're prepared to go either way.

Centerfield Nov 14 2016 03:36 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I guess another interpretation could be that they really want him to take the QO. And they would undermine it by offering a multi-year deal. I don't know. I don't really see him taking it. But if last week told us anything, it's that we have no fucking idea what will happen. Ever.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 14 2016 08:38 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

The decision is due in less than 90 minutes. I wonder if we'll know by 5, or if it will take a bit longer for word to leak out.

Centerfield Nov 14 2016 08:41 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I wonder if going down to the wire makes it likely or less likely. The big guys have already declined.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 14 2016 08:49 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

He had said a few days ago that he was going to wait until the very end.

Centerfield Nov 14 2016 09:03 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

He had said a few days ago that he was going to wait until the very end. Sure. But like the last 59 minutes very end? Does he think a multi-year deal will come in before 5? What if he loses service! What if the Mets put him on hold? I picture a desperate Neil Walker around 4:53... "Your call is very important to us. To continue in English, press 1..." Meanwhile, Hellickson accepts.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 14 2016 09:13 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Word just coming out now that Cespedes has officially rejected. It was such a foregone conclusion that I overlooked that it hadn't actually happened yet.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 14 2016 09:41 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Twenty minutes and still no news! Such drama!

Centerfield Nov 14 2016 09:53 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

8 minutes! It's crazy that I feel this much anticipation when I'm not sure which way I want it to go.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 14 2016 09:53 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I know! I feel the same way! I don't know which way I'm rooting, but I want to know the answer!

John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 14 2016 09:56 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

TURN IT DOWN NEIL! YOU'RE WORTH WAY MORE THAN THIS! 17 BILLION MAYBE!!

Frayed Knot Nov 14 2016 09:57 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Jon Heyman is reportedly (unofficial) word on each of the QO players ... EXCEPT FOR Walker DEXTER FOWLER - Rejected KENSLEY JANSEN - Rejected JUSTIN TURNER - Rejected YOENIS CESPEDES - Rejected NEIL WALKER - ??? =#0000FF]JEREMY HELLICKSON -- Accepted EDWIN ENCARNACION - Rejected JOSE BAUTISTA - Rejected IAN DESMOND - Rejected MARK TRUMBO - Rejected

Centerfield Nov 14 2016 10:05 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Accepted per Rubin on Twitter. Shocked. I wonder if this means his back is fucked. Or wait, if his back were fucked, then he'd look for the multi-year deal now. I don't know. Anyway, really surprised he thought there was no market for him.

Vic Sage Nov 14 2016 10:09 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

i think they're definitely going to try and move Bruce's contract now.

Centerfield Nov 14 2016 10:10 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I'm trying to think of the ramifications of this. Probably doesn't affect the Cespedes, money, but if he walks probably makes someone like Fowler less likely. I think we can kiss goodbye any thought of an elite closer.

seawolf17 Nov 14 2016 10:12 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Well, that was our Bartolo savings. NO WORRIES, FRIENDS. Walker's going to go 20/20 this year.

Lefty Specialist Nov 14 2016 10:25 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

This tells you that Walker wasn't confident enough to test himself on the open market. And that's worrisome.

d'Kong76 Nov 14 2016 10:39 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Lotta question marks on both sides, hard to walk away from $17mil+ guaranteed and it's gonna be hard to pay it if he's not worth (and he won't be) that salary slot.

seawolf17 Nov 14 2016 10:42 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

YA... GOTTA... BELIEVE, PEOPLE.

A Boy Named Seo Nov 14 2016 10:44 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

It could also be similar to why Hellickson re-signed w/ the Phils. Teams told his agents they were interested, but didn't want to lose the draft pick. I think it's better for both parties that he signed. Mets on the hook for one kinda expensive year, but don't get hamstrung for multiple, and a (hopefully) healthy Walker gets to play again for a contract.

Frayed Knot Nov 14 2016 11:19 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Like I always say with these contracts, it's never the money that worries me it's the length and the length here is one year. If Walker suxx and/or is injured for the upcoming season then they have to eat it but if they thought this was going to screw up all the rest of their plans then they wouldn't have offered it in the first place. And if nothing else then he and/or Wilmer become Wright insurance.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 14 2016 11:31 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

I'd be just fine had he turned us down, maybe better than fine. I wonder now if they'd dare play Cecchini at 3rd base. Prolly not the power they'd like to pencil in there anyway. This was a guy who a year ago was deemed equal value for Jon Niese.

MFS62 Nov 14 2016 11:35 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

seawolf17 wrote: Walker's going to go 20/20 this year. Is that errors and RBI? Later

seawolf17 Nov 14 2016 11:37 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

MFS62 wrote: seawolf17 wrote: Walker's going to go 20/20 this year. Is that errors and RBI? Later Maybe AB and Defensive Innings Played; but trust me, dude's going 20/20.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Nov 14 2016 11:44 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

No big. No long-term commitment, AND if you can get 2-3 fWAR out of the guy (3.7 or so this year), he's also just about worth the cash, nominally. John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'd be just fine had he turned us down, maybe better than fine. I wonder now if they'd dare play Cecchini at 3rd base. Prolly not the power they'd like to pencil in there anyway. This was a guy who a year ago was deemed equal value for Jon Niese. Yeah, but that's more about a wrong valuation of Hawky, innit?

Centerfield Nov 15 2016 02:26 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Saw a tidbit in this article: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseb ... -1.2873050 It says the Mets feel comfortable slotting him in at first and third as well as second. I wonder when the Mets' philosophy on this changed. Part of the reason I was so frustrated last season was having to sit through the Eric Campbell/Ty Kelly at-bats while Dilson sat at AAA. Aggravating. In any event, I think I am good on the Walker deal. I didn't think Murphy's success could be sustained and was proven wrong. Maybe right-handed Walker is this year's Murphy. I think if Neil had left, I might have tried to use that money to pursue a top shelf reliever like Jansen. But I can't see Sandy Alderson giving a multi-year deal to a relief pitcher, and more likely would have spread this around on a pu-pu platter of hit or miss bullpen/bench guys. So if that's the case, I'd rather try Walker. We get our power-hitting second baseman back on a short term commitment. I'm cool with that.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 15 2016 02:32 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Yeah, I think I am too. I'm also glad to have a little less uncertainty about the composition of the 2017 Mets. And Sandy has targeted the end of the winter meetings to have the Cespedes thing resolved, one way or the other. I think that means December 8, which is just over three weeks from now.

smg58 Nov 15 2016 02:41 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

So we have Duda, Walker, Cabrera, Wright, Reyes, and Flores, with Cecchini and Rivera as call-ups. That looks pretty set to me.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 15 2016 02:46 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Not much first-base experience though, beyond Duda.

seawolf17 Nov 15 2016 03:12 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

smg58 wrote: So we have Duda, Walker, Cabrera, Wright, Reyes, and Flores, with Cecchini and Rivera as call-ups. That looks pretty set to me. And considering we have no idea what we're getting from Wright, you're really looking at Duda/Walker/Cabrera/Reyes with Cecchini/Rivera on the bench. That's legit.

Centerfield Nov 15 2016 03:14 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

And then in July we get Kelly Johnson back right?

Edgy MD Nov 15 2016 03:27 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Three words: L. J. Mazzilli.

Nymr83 Nov 16 2016 05:54 AM Re: Q.O. for Walker

glad he is back and glad its only for a year. the Free Agent list this year has a few prominent relievers and not much else. Walker was a top 10 position player out there if he had become free, and that is scary for a team that wants to improve. available guys who aren't stuck in a corner outfield spot or 1B: Dexter Fowler (CF), Justin Turner (3B) and then probably Walker.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Aug 13 2017 03:51 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

Bump! John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'm saying it right now: Cecchini + Flores + Reyes + Rivera > Walker 2017 John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: If we offer the QO I think he takes it right away, compromises our flexibility wrt other players owed increases due to arbitration or re-signing, and unnecessarily creates a logjam at one of the few places where our depth could serve us more efficiently.

Edgy MD Aug 13 2017 06:18 PM Re: Q.O. for Walker

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I still think he's destined to wind up in Pittsburgh as a reserve. Other than spelling "Milwaukee" wrong, you slaughtered it in this thread.