Master Index of Archived Threads


The Five Year Plan

Frayed Knot Oct 23 2016 10:09 PM

October 22, 2011 — the Chicago Cubs announced the hiring of 37 y/o Theo Epstein to be president of baseball operations. Five days later they hired Jed Hoyer away from San Diego to be Theo’s GM. Winter 2011-2012 Dealt RHP Andrew Cashner, their 1st round (19th overall) pick in 2008, to San Diego for 1B Anthony Rizzo. Oddly, Theo had originally drafted Rizzo while with the Red Sox, then dealt him away to Jed Hoyer and the Padres before getting both Hoyer and Rizzo back again where he’s a likely top-3 MVP this season and the ‘old man’ of the infield at age 26. Cashner has since moved on to Miami 2012 Using maybe the best, and certainly the last, good half-season out of pitcher Ryan Dempster, they dealt him at the trading deadline to Texas for two prospects, the less heralded of the two being control specialist Kyle Hendricks then at Myrtle Beach in the high-A Carolina League. Dempster is now retired and working on the MLB Network Signed OF Jorge Soler out of Cuba to a FA contract Selected reliever Hector Rondon in the 'Rule 5' draft 1st round pick (6th overall) = Alberto Almora: part-time OF in his 2016 rookie season 2013 Drafting 2nd overall following their 101-loss season, the Cubs select 3B Kris Bryant out of Univ San Diego Year 1 = ROY, Year 2 = likely MVP and his WAR to date exceeds the combined WAR of the remainder of that year’s 1st round picks. Pitchers Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray went before and after him. Again taking advantage of a good 1st half of pitching, they dealt RHP Scott Feldman and C/1B Steve Clevenger to the Orioles for reliever Pedro Strop and starter Jake Arrieta Arrieta’s ERA w/Balt over 4 seasons = 5.46, ERA w/Cubs since the deal = 2.52 including one CY award. Strop has pitched to a 2.68 and sub-1.00 WHIP out of the bullpen. Clevenger is now in Seattle where he hit .221 in part-time work this year, Feldman has pitched for three teams since the deal. Also at the trading deadline, dealt RHP Matt Garza to Texas for current relievers Justin Grimm and Carl Edwards. Garza spent 1/2 season w/the Rangers before moving on to the Brewers 2014 Signed RHP Jason Hammel as a FA in the winter then flipped him along with fellow RHP Jeff Samardzija to Oakland for minor league SS (11th overall pick in the 2012 draft) Addison Russell (plus others). Russell was an All-Star this year at age 22. Samardzija is on his third team since the deal. Hammell then returned to the Cubs that winter. Promoted previous (pre-Theo) 1st round draft pick (9th overall - 2011) Javier Baez to play 2B - or maybe SS, 3B, 1B, LF … wherever Maddon puts him 1st round pick (4th overall) = Kyle Schwarber, 16 HRs in part-time use in 2015, injured in 2016 although could possibly be activated and DH in the WS 2015 Signed manager Joe Maddon to a five-year deal when a change in the front office in Tampa triggered an out-clause in Maddon’s deal. Signed LHP Jon Lester to a mega-bucks FA deal. And while it’s possible they’ll get bit by that one before it’s over (2020 plus option for ‘21) he’s the front-runner in this year’s CY award. Traded IF Luis Valbuena to Houston for CF Dexter Fowler, then re-signed Fowler on a one-year deal after he inexplicably shunned first the QO, and then a three-year offer by Baltimore. Signed C David Ross to a FA contract 2016 Sign RHP John Lackey (38 y/o Today!!) as a FA to a two-year deal. 29 starts, 11-8, 3.35 ERA Signed the 35 y/o Ben Zobrist to a four-year FA contract. This also might bite them eventually, but it worked just fine for this year. Signed OF Jason Heyward to a mega-bucks FA contract Dealt several top prospects to the Yanquis for RP Aroldis Chapman Promoted C/OF/1B (a pre-Theo int’l signing) Willson Contreras in June: 27 XBH in 250 ABs October 22, 2016 — five years TO THE DAY!!!! after hiring Theo — the Cubs advance to the World Series for the first time in 71 years. Everyone from football coaches to the old Soviet Union apparatchiks play up the idea of the vaunted ‘Five Year Plan’ like they’re either wise enough to concoct one on their own or privy to some secret formula that’s going to turn the team, the economy, the neighborhood around. And while there’s always a degree of luck involved in success stories like this such — like when the lesser prospect in a deal becomes the better player, and sometimes even an All-Star or even a CY — at large chunk of it in this case shows shrewd talent evaluation, while more can be attributed to player development (Arrieta likely didn’t magically improve on his own), or to sucking enough to get the high draft picks (though you still have to hit on them … certainly not a given), or to getting the budget for major FA moves which (except to some degree with Heyward) have at least worked out so far (Lester, Zobrist), that’s an awesome string of roster moves no matter how you slice it which has (so far) resulted in 200 regular season wins in two seasons along with one division title, two NLCS appearances, and one WS appearance (and maybe more!!) Players left from the 2011 Cubs = None! - and I believe only Baez & Contreras were in the organization

Lefty Specialist Oct 24 2016 12:16 AM Re: The Five Year Plan

If Theo can get the Red Sox to break 86-year World Series drought, then get the Cubs to break a 108-year World Series drought, all by the age of 42, he'll be Hall of Fame material.

Fman99 Oct 24 2016 12:27 AM Re: The Five Year Plan

Heyward signing is still powerfully stupid money for what he's giving you.

metirish Oct 24 2016 12:46 AM Re: The Five Year Plan

Excellent recap , Heyward is awful , booth plays up his defense a lot , although Smoltz has been straight up with his offense.

Zvon Oct 24 2016 01:07 AM Re: The Five Year Plan

Great bunch of info. Thank you. I hope Schwarber gets to bat at least once. DH in Cleveland? As long as he isn't playing the field. I'm not in the mood for comedy.

Frayed Knot Oct 24 2016 02:10 AM Re: The Five Year Plan

Fman99 wrote: Heyward signing is still powerfully stupid money for what he's giving you. Yeah, you can't hit on every move you make -- they also got shit from the Yanx when they dealt away Starlin Castro last winter (Adam Warren pitched one start and 30 shitty relief innings for the Cubs then wound up back in the Bronx as part of the Chapman deal three months later) -- and Heyward is almost certain to be overpaid at best throughout this contract and maybe even a total bust where they have have to eat the money and cut him loose in a few years. But it's not like they were counting on him to carry the load by himself so at least there was the defense to fall back on. It all probably forced Zobrist into the OF more than was initially planned, but the fact that Baez improved so quickly at his age (his 39% K-rate prior to this season plummeted to 24% in 2016) essentially means Zobrist is no longer the incumbent 2B-man anyway. You know what else helps you win 103 games? ... having most of your guys stay on the field. They had 7 guys with 450 or more PAs, and their season opening five starters all had between 29 and 32 starts. Shit, just 10 starts all year went to someone other than their big five (as opposed to 36 for the Mets) and a couple of those were due to guys on short-term bereavement lists. 5th starter Jason Hammell went on the DL on the last day of the season right as a 5th starter is no longer needed. Of the main position players, only Fowler (28 games) and part-time OF Jorge Soler (51) missed a stretch longer than two weeks. Like I said, there's always a bit of luck involved.

bmfc1 Oct 24 2016 11:46 AM Re: The Five Year Plan Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Oct 24 2016 02:33 PM

Heyward's WAR was positive but a big drop off from the previous two years. Still, Epstein would remind us they had him and the Cardinals didn't. And his fielding was still very good. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... osition=OF

Centerfield Oct 24 2016 02:17 PM Re: The Five Year Plan

I've had some dumb ideas while posting on this board. Advocating for Heyward over Cespedes last winter may have been my dumbest. Imagine the boos he would have gotten at Citi this year? Wow.

metsmarathon Oct 24 2016 02:22 PM Re: The Five Year Plan

yeah... i was also wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong about heyward. wow.

Frayed Knot Oct 24 2016 02:50 PM Re: The Five Year Plan

In fairness to those advocating for Heyward last winter (for the Mets or for any other team) it's nearly impossible to expect a 26 y/o to fall off the cliff like the way he did this year - OPS dropped off 166 points from 2015 and more than 150 points off his career norm - OPS+ fell from 117 to 70! I'm not sure there was another guy getting 500+ ABs in the majors this year with a 70 OPS+, and certainly not a corner outfielder. - RC/G was cut practically in half: from 5.9 to 3.4 - his power became almost non-existent as shown by his IsoP going from a career mark of .163 down to .093. Shit, Rey Ordonez had a .089 isolated power mark one season (2001)! The good news for the Cubs is that he just turned 27 and that this season looks like such an outlier compared to others that there's almost sure to be some kind of bounce back going forward. Plus he still brings the defense. The bad news is that if he doesn't find his way back then you're on the hook for major bucks straight through to the 2023 season! And to think, Hayward's agent made sure to front-load the deal and also put in opt-outs following the 2018 & 2019 seasons. Just in case he was, y'know, out-playing his contract.

Gwreck Oct 24 2016 06:13 PM Re: The Five Year Plan

Centerfield wrote: I've had some dumb ideas while posting on this board. Advocating for Heyward over Cespedes last winter may have been my dumbest. Imagine the boos he would have gotten at Citi this year? Wow. I was also in favor of signing Heyward. Heyward 2016 WAR: 1.5 Cespedes 2016 WAR: 2.9 Also Heyward is four years younger. Too early to call that the "dumbest" idea ever.

Centerfield Oct 24 2016 06:19 PM Re: The Five Year Plan

Frayed Knot wrote: - his power became almost non-existent as shown by his IsoP going from a career mark of .163 down to .093. Shit, Rey Ordonez had a .089 isolated power mark one season (2001)! What is shocking is that this happened while moving all of his home games to Wrigley Field.

Vic Sage Oct 26 2016 05:13 PM Re: The Five Year Plan

yeah, you bozos really screwed the pooch on that one, that's for sure! Heyward, HA! what a piece of... (we hear off stage whispers) What? (more whispers) I did? (more whispers) Oh. (to the audience) never mind. (exits, whistling.)