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Positions by Confidence

Edgy MD Nov 01 2016 02:08 PM

Which positions do you have the most amount of confidence in for 2017? Which do you have the least? Feel free to rank them. [list]Catcher: Is d'Arnaud d'Arnothing? Is Plawecki really the polish word for banjo? Is Nido an illusion on the horizon? First Base: How big a step back has Duda taken? Is there anything to Terry's maniacally persistent confidence that Campbell is a few swings from finding himself? How soon do we see Smith? How much gut does he intend to play with? Does his power show up? Will one of the outfielders, perhaps Conforto, be forced to pick up a firstbaseman's mitt? Second Base: Does Walker get re-signed? Is this where you want Flores to land? Does Flores return freshly from his compounding injuries? Is Cecchini ticketed for the right side of the diamond? Is he ready to make the jump? Third Base: Does the big guy have anything left? Does he return, but without his full torque (and power) like fellow spinal fusion patient Nick Markakis? Is this where Flores lands? Does Flores ever land at all? Shortstop: Can Cabrera do it again? Can he do even a reasonable facsimile of it? Is Reynolds a major league backup? Who gets to the bigs first—Evans or Rosario? Does Evans slide to another position also? Left Field: Will Céspedes return? Will Céspedes return? And, oh yeah, will Céspedes return? Meanwhile, can Conforto regain his big league traction? And if Céspedes returns, at which position will he get a chance to regain it? Center Field: Which direction do we go here? Granderson is the incumbent, but that was a desperate team running out of options. Do they really pencil him in at the start of a season? Does a healthy-legged Céspedes (and, oh yeah, will he return?) get another look out there? Was Conforto's modest success in a short look something to take seriously? A healthy Laggy? Perhaps platooning with Nimmo? Perhaps platooning with Conforto? Lots of possibilities, but who knows the right one? Right Field: Should Céspedes return, do they finally shift him to where his skill set screams he belongs? Will Granderson get to continue the most significant tenure in right since Strawberry? Is this where they look to establish Nimmo as a potential top-of-the-order hitter? Will Taijeron remain buried in the Las Vegas sand forever?[/list:u] Lots of options! All over the diamond! But few obvious paths. At almost no position but shortstop is the opening day guy a lock. Duda's probably at first, but there's still a possibility (if only slight) that he's a non-tenderino. So, where, if anywhere, do you feel most secure? Where least?

Centerfield Nov 01 2016 02:19 PM Re: Positions by Confidence

Holly crap. This post just made me realize I'm not confident at any position.

smg58 Nov 01 2016 02:24 PM Re: Positions by Confidence

Well there's shortstop, and...

Benjamin Grimm Nov 01 2016 02:26 PM Re: Positions by Confidence

I'm most secure in the middle infield. I like Cabrera a lot, and although I don't know who's going to play second base, they have a lot of options and I'm optimistic that they'll find someone to give them good production from that position. I think Duda will be back. I don't think he'll be non-tendered, but I guess there's a chance that he'll be tendered and then traded, once he's properly tender. If he ends up hurt or non-productive, I'm not sure what the Mets will do. I assume Loney won't be around. There's been talk of moving Bruce or Conforto to first base, but I'd be surprised to see that. I don't expect Dom Smith to make much more than a token appearance in the big leagues in 2017. I'm not too worried about third base. Not sure what David Wright will provide, but even if it's nothing at all, one of the spillover options from second base can assume third base. Not ideal, but not my biggest concern. The outfield is the big mystery. I expect Granderson will be back, and will be a starter. He's in decline, and I worry that there may be a big drop next year. Hopefully not. I'd like to see the Mets resign Cespedes and sign a legitimate center fielder (like Dexter Fowler, perhaps). Unless we (they) think that Lagares can be a viable option. I know that adding Fowler and retaining Cespedes would make for a crowded outfield and I'm not sure of the best way to resolve that. I don't want to give up on Conforto. Would be willing to trade Bruce (if Cespedes returns). It's hard to say. As for catcher, I'm not ready to give up totally on d'Arnaud, but I'd like to see the Mets bring in a veteran catcher on a one- or two-year contract and have Travis be his backup. I don't have any names in mind.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Nov 01 2016 02:28 PM Re: Positions by Confidence

Everything seems workable, some more than others. But... confidence? Yeesh.

Edgy MD Nov 01 2016 02:46 PM Re: Positions by Confidence

The built-in redundancy at most positions gives me confidence, along with relative youth, along with (presumably) some money to spend as Walker, Céspedes, and Colón come off the books. That money, of course, may well be spent on Walker, Céspedes, and Colón, but I doubt all three return. What doesn't give me confidence necessarily is Terry's ability to sort through those options, and land on the best combinations.

seawolf17 Nov 01 2016 02:49 PM Re: Positions by Confidence

Edgy MD wrote: Colón come off the books NO. THIS CANNOT HAPPEN.

Centerfield Nov 01 2016 03:54 PM Re: Positions by Confidence

In the spirit of the rules of the thread: 1. Shortstop. The one position where we know our incumbent will be back. Cabrera had a nice year for us, but is older, hurt, and likely due for a regression to career norms. But still, there is the hope that he can sustain his second half production, and most likely, he will give us enough offense for the position. I also like our backups (Reyes, Cecchini, Reynolds) and there is a chance that Rosario might be ready in the second half. I wouldn't count on SS to be a big run producer like it was last year, and I'm not exactly confident, but I'm optimistic. 2. First Base. The question here isn't whether Duda's back (he will be). The question is Duda's back. Two years in a row he's had back issues. And most troubling is that we don't know what caused it, and nothing has been done to alleviate it. Unlike Walker who had corrective surgery, we are just left hoping that Duda's troubles won't recur. It also scares me that David Wright's back troubles started this same exact way. But if he's healthy, he's a proven run-producer, as streaky as he may be. Not confident here, but hopeful? Would love to see a Steve Pearce-type of right handed guy that can spell him against lefties. 3. Left Field. Between the possibility of Cespedes returning and Conforto bouncing back, I am holding out hope that we can get a run producer here. I am optimistic Conforto will eventually produce. 4. Second Base. Like left field, I am ranking this a bit higher because we might bring back Walker, but also because here we have a few guys that might be ok. Rivera, Flores, Cecchini, maybe we bring back Kelly Johnson in some sort of platoon. We have more options here than LF, but the upside is much smaller. 5. Right Field. I wonder if we go to spring training with both Granderson and Bruce. Both can mash still, but both are flawed players, better suited to hit lower in the lineup. 6. Catcher. I don't see Sandy significantly improving at catcher given the options available. Maybe he will, but as of now it would be a complete shock to me. If Travis can get his head straight, maybe he can go back to being the hitter we saw before. But I'm pretty pessimistic here. 7. Centerfield. Dexter Fowler would be a nice addition, especially since I have concerns about Reyes being able to lead off for an entire season (and there is no one else on the team suited to do so). I feel like this is a "Sandy-type" of target. But it's important to remember he's coming off of a big year too. 2015 Fowler is not nearly as good a fit as 2016 Fowler. And let's face it, we probably don't get him. Which leaves us Juan Lagares, who basically sucks. 8. Third Base. We're basically fucked at third base. I have no faith that David has anything left, though I hope against hope that he does. Reyes and Flores or maybe Kelly Johnson are his most likely subs, and it's not likely that any of them can give us enough production for a corner infielder. 23 third basemen qualified last year. The median was Anthony Rendon (.797 OPS, 20 HR's, 85 RBI). We are not getting that. Until Wright comes off the books or retires, I don't see the Mets upgrading here. We are just going to have to carry this position for the time being.

Edgy MD Nov 01 2016 03:57 PM Re: Positions by Confidence

Amazingly, I failed to list Reyes as part of the picture at any position. Depth!

smg58 Nov 01 2016 04:19 PM Re: Positions by Confidence

1B: It's still Duda's to lose, but he's gotta be healthy. (3) 2B: Lots of so-so options. I'd like to see a lefty to pair up with Flores, and who can also move around the infield in the (likely) event of an injury. Cecchini could then be the first call-up. Kelly Johnson could probably be brought back for a song, but I'd ask about players like Derek Dietrich of the Marlins or Brock Holt of the Red Sox. Flores reminds me of Ty Wigginton. Not a good enough glove to be an everyday middle infielder, and not a consistent enough bat against righties to man a corner full-time. But he can have a role on a good team. Reyes could find a role here too. (5) SS: Cabrera is safe to pencil in there. (1) 3B: It's Wright's for as many games as he's healthy, which is... (6) LF: Plan A is Cespedes (although I agree that RF is the ideal spot for him). I think plans B, C, and D are Cespedes as well. (4 for now, but could go up to 1 or down to 8 quickly depending on how things pan out.) CF: Better than it looks at face value if Lagares is good to go. Lagares was the 2014 defensive Lagares when he played, which makes him an asset even if he's not hitting all that well. There's reason for optimism with Lagares; walks and isolated power were up while strikeouts were down. He may have simply been unlucky in his limited ABs. I'm bullish on him if he's healthy. Granderson didn't embarrass himself in center, either. He also suffered from a terrible (.254) BABIP. I realize that the shift works against him, but it's not like people just started using it against him last year. I'm bullish on him as well. (2) RF: Take what you can get for Bruce. I have more confidence in Conforto or Nimmo stepping up. That doesn't mean it can't be improved on. (8) C: I'm not giving up on d'Arnaud just yet, but some insurance would be prudent. (7)

Centerfield Nov 01 2016 04:24 PM Re: Positions by Confidence

Edgy MD wrote: Amazingly, I failed to list Reyes as part of the picture at any position. Depth! You keep using that word...

Vic Sage Nov 02 2016 05:56 PM Re: Positions by Confidence Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 14 2016 08:41 PM

Which positions do you have the most amount of confidence in for 2017? Which do you have the least? Feel free to rank them. I guess my “confidence” has two perspectives: my confidence in knowing the identity of who is going to be our primary starter at each position, as well as my confidence about the amount of production we’ll get from each position. I think the situation is clearer about who is going to be playing, but my confidence in getting significant production from those players is fairly low. In fact, we do not have a known stud currently under contract at any position (assuming Cespedes is about to opt out). Catcher: d'Arnaud - We'll tender an offer, and I think he'll still be our starter. They've seen him produce when healthy and will probably roll the dice that he can at least return to that level next year. Anyway, there isn't an obvious FA upgrade. They do need a LH compliment for him, so they might sign a FA for that. And the only prospect we've got that produced last season is Nido, but he is still too far away to project. Plawecki? Pla-leez, stop. My confidence in production at Catcher: 30% First Base: Duda - They may non-tender him but that's unlikely, so he's our probable starter. However, his ongoing and mysterious back issues are an ongoing concern, even if Flores spells him over there against LHPs. Alternatives? In the minors, Dom Smith took a big step forward last year at AA, where he added power to his stroke. They'll need to see him do it again at AAA level, but if he has a hot start, and if Duda is unproductive and/or hurt, we may see Smith in Flushing at some point (at least after the deadline that stalls his arbitration clock). I don’t think they’re looking a FA 1Bmen, but it’s been suggested they could move either Conforto or Bruce to 1B. This depends, I think, on whether Cespedes re-signs, whether they keep Bruce, whether Conforto remembers how to hit ML pitching, whether they’re ok with Granderson in CF, and any number of other factors, including whether they want to take a chance teaching a new position to a player while playing games that matter. In any event, I’d hate to see them move Conforto, because I think he’s actually a decent OFer. Bruce would be the guy to move, if we keep him, and if Duda isn’t up to the job, because he’s not very good in the OF, and the move could improve our OF defense. His 1b defense? Unknowable, but there’s no reason it’d be any worse than Conforto’s (with neither of them having much experience there), so if we’re picking between those two, then Bruce. My confidence in production at 1b: 35% Second Base: Flores – I don’t think they’ll re-sign Walker. Hopefully they’ll tender him so we get a pick when he signs elsewhere, but I think the franchise is finally ready to see if Flores can handle full-time duty. With TJ Rivera, Reyes and Cabrera around, and Cecchini on the horizon, they have enough options here to stay with an in-house option and save their money for Cespedes. If Wright can’t handle 3b anymore, Flores, Rivera or Reyes will move over there. They’re going to want to see Cecchini play 2b at Vegas before they pull the trigger on that. My confidence in production at 2b: 65% Third Base: Wright – I think they’ll first see if Wright can play anymore. If not, some combination of Reyes, Rivera, Flores, and Cabrera will probably man the hot corner. We have no real 3B prospect on the horizon. My confidence in production at 3B: 25% Shortstop: Cabrera - He’s signed and coming off a career year, so he’s the starter. His production? Statistically likely to revert to his career averages, or less, given injuries and age. He’ll get rested by Reyes more frequently, but I think Flores only sees SS in an emergency. Reynolds is not a ML player, but we are deep in prospects at this position, including our best prospect, Rosario. I think they’ll move Cecchini to 2b at AAA to clear the decks for Rosario. My confidence in production at SS: 60% Left Field: Céspedes – I think they’ll overpay him and he’ll come back. I’d prefer him in RF, or even CF, because LF is a waste of his arm and he can cover enough ground to play those other positions. But they won’t do it; he probably won’t re-sign unless he gets some sort of commitment to keep him in LF, because he’s comfortable there. It will also be a little less strain on his body to stay in LF (rather than CF), so it could help him maintain his production. Conforto and/or Nimmo will be his primary LHed backups, either of whom could develop into decent – good ML players. If Cespedes doesn't come back, then Grandy in LF (with Bruce in RF and Nimmo/Conforto/Lagares in CF). They might go out to the FA market to replace Cespedes, with Bautista, or Trumbo, or somebody like that, but i hope not, and i doubt it. My confidence in production at LF: 75% Center Field: Granderson – It’s his last year of his contract, and his production is wildly inconsistent, but he’ll start in CF, at least for a while. Lagares will play against LHP (either in CF or RF) and if he (or Conforto, or Nimmo) hits well enough, he may take more ABs away from Grandy. My confidence in production at CF: 50% Right Field: Bruce – Given his hot finish, I think they’ll pick up his option ($13m for 30hr/90rbi bat is still a good deal). But if they keep Cespedes, I’m hoping they trade him (or at least move him to 1b), with Granderson taking over. I’d prefer Cespedes in RF, and Bruce at 1B or traded (with Grandy in LF, and Conforto & Lagares in CF), but that scenario is unlikely. Prospects: in addition to Conforto and Nimmo? Beccerra, but he’s hurt and still far away. My confidence in production at RF: 50%

Edgy MD Nov 02 2016 06:07 PM Re: Positions by Confidence

I also inexplicably left Rivera out of the summaries. I won't, however, say anything about depth of options. No, sir, not me.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 02 2016 06:23 PM Re: Positions by Confidence

You also overlooked Teddy Martinez.

Lefty Specialist Nov 02 2016 06:29 PM Re: Positions by Confidence

This team could win anywhere from 60 to 100 games next year. I want a better catcher than d'Arnaud. I want a better first baseman than Duda. I'm not happy with revolving doors at third, second, and center. Those are my positions of least confidence. Cespedes or Conforto in left. Bruce or Granderson in right. Oh my. Shortstop is a guy with a knee hanging by a thread. Yes, there's depth, but it's dumb depth. We don't need two left-handed right fielders. Don't need 2 right-handed second basemen, 3 if you sign Walker. And that doesn't even get to the pitching staff, 60% of which couldn't finish the season and 20% of which is a free agent. Oh, and a closer who's going to start the season in Rob Manfred's penalty box. Now this could all play out great. But it's scary how uncertain practically everything is with this team.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 02 2016 06:36 PM Re: Positions by Confidence

I don't think it's all that uncommon for there to be uncertainty on November 2. The picture will become more clear (and hopefully brighter too, but we'll see about that) in the next few months. For me, Mets Hot Stove is required viewing in November and December. I'm eager for news of off-season developments.

Edgy MD Nov 02 2016 06:56 PM Re: Positions by Confidence

Lefty Specialist wrote: Yes, there's depth, but it's dumb depth. We don't need two left-handed right fielders. Don't need 2 right-handed second basemen, 3 if you sign Walker. We needed three last year. Four, really.

seawolf17 Nov 02 2016 08:56 PM Re: Positions by Confidence

Benjamin Grimm wrote: You also overlooked Teddy Martinez. I remember that! That was in the 1971 offseason "positions by confidence" thread. Man, the Pool was so different back then. Can't even find that thread in the archives.

MFS62 Nov 03 2016 01:16 AM Re: Positions by Confidence

Catcher: 30% with TDA, less with Plawecki First base: 25% with Duda Second base: Sandy was quoted last week (SNY?) as saying "JP Rivera is my second baseman". If so, 80% Third: Wright 20%, if Flores, 65-70% Short: 80% as others believe. If Reyes, the drop-off isn't much. Other middle infield reserves: 50-65% Left: Cespedes: 85%, if Conforto 75% Center: Juan? 70%, Granderson 50%(I feel he's due for a decline) Right: HOOTHEHECK knows? If Bruce, maybe 55%. Outfield reserves: 60% SP: somebody's gotta' come back strong: 85-90% MR: Sandy finds those guys: 75% RP: with Famiia - 90%, without him 80% and a cringe. Of course, everything is subject to change. Let's check back in March. Later