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Prospect Season - 2016/17

Frayed Knot Nov 14 2016 04:03 PM

Baseball Prospectus is the first to chime in with their NYM list. The write-ups are all hidden behind the pay wall so we get nothing beyond the raw list plus a brief description that calls the system "middle of the pack" but also notes that there's some talent beyond just the top ten shows an improvement overall. A mixture of some familiar names and some less so. SS Amed Rosario RHP Robert Gsellman LHP Thomas Szapucki -- 5th round pick in 2015 out of a Florida HS. Split 2016 (9 starts total) between Kingsport & Brooklyn 1B Dominic Smith CF Desmond Lindsay -- 2nd round pick in 2015. 868 OPS in Brooklyn in 2016 RHP Justin Dunn -- the kid out of Freeport L.I. (by way of a prep school in Conn.) who was the 19th overall pick in 2016 SS Andres Gimenez -- a just turned 18 y/o Venezuelan who has yet to play in U.S. minor leagues OF Brandon Nimmo SS Gavin Cecchini RF Wuilmer Becerra

MFS62 Nov 14 2016 11:37 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Glad to see Wuilmer is still on the top 10. Those 5 tools he shows in practice (including the power tool that doesn't show up in games) must be spectacular. Later

Edgy MD Nov 15 2016 01:29 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

It was a pretty terrible year for the system, particularly in the upper levels, following the late-summer spending spree that cost them 19 (I think) prospects. Only one affiliate qualified for the post-season and was quickly eliminated. But early returns on the draft and the recent free agent signings at least have the system trending back toward their prior lofty status, if still a ways from restored. Gsellman and Lugo stepping forward, as well as Rosario's second big stride in two years, offered some redemption for a season largely defined by Molina's Tommy John surger and Wuilmer Becerra's power outage.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Nov 15 2016 02:13 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17 Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Dec 03 2016 06:39 PM

Szapucki, though... put up numbers (sub-1 WHIP, 14-plus K/9, 4-plus K/BB) that were so very szexy this year. He's gotten some MLB-wide talk, and may well be on some top-100 lists.

Centerfield Nov 15 2016 02:48 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Not on that list is Anthony Kay, the supplemental pick the Mets got for letting Murphy walk. I have been hoping that someday he wins a Cy Young so we call be like man, it's a good thing Murphy left even though he killed is in 2016, since we got Anthony Kay and Murphy suddenly lost it and hit .214 from 2017 onwards. Kay is a LHP from UConn, who had elbow concerns even before he was drafted. Just checked on him and found out he did, in fact, have Tommy John surgery. Out all of 2017. Maybe he just felt like he needed to get it out of the way.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 21 2016 05:02 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Not a top 10 ranking or anything, but rather a look around at the diamond at comers in the org. Nothing you probably didn;t know already... [url]http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20161121&content_id=208239558&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

Edgy MD Dec 01 2016 08:35 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Amazin' Avenue is rolling out their prospect lists five guys at a time, down from 25 21-25 25. Cameron Planck, rhp: High schoolio drafted in June, DNP in 2016. 24. Ricardo Cespedes, cf: teenage lefty hitter/thrower who put up a lofty average (but little in the way of extra-base power or plate discipline) in Kingsport. 23. Harol Gonzalez, rhp: Darn good all-around numbers in Brooklyn, needs to show he can repeat it in a full-season league. 22. Jeff McNiel, if: Buffed up in the offseason, and it paid off quickly in Binghamton, as he ended up missing almost the entire year with a hernia. 21. Chris Flexen, rhp: Anchor of the St. Lucie staff. Added to the roster and might well see some time in Flushing in 2017. 16-20 20. Andrew Church, rhp: Former second-rounder who was written off by many but found his stride, starting in Columbia and climbing all the way to (briefly) Las Vegas. 19. Merandy Gonzalez, rhp: Coney Island's other Gonzalez. Good, classic fastball/curveball repertoire with inconsistent control. 18. Ricky Knapp, rhp: Goes together with Chris Flexen like Gsellman and Lugo. Pitched at all of the top three levels in 2016. Dad is a big league pitching coach. 17. Phil Evans, if: Won the Eastern League batting title. Is a league-wide favorite to get snatched in the Rule 5. 16. Peter Alonso, 1b: Beefcake righthanded 21-year-old slugger was, at times, most of Brooklyn's offense. 11-15 15. Marcos Molina, rhp: Spent most of the season recovering from TJ surgery, but pitched effectively in the AFL. 14. Gabriel Ynoa, rhp: Like Gsellman, gets it done without strikeouts. Was the most consistent pitcher in the Las Vegas rotation this year. 13. Andres Giminez, ss: 17 years old a thousand miles from the big leagues, but he had as impressive a debut as you can hope for in a DSL player. 12. Luis Carpio, ss: a more seasoned DSL shortstop (19!), he hit everything they threw at him and played his way into the states with 34 games in the GCL and 12 more with Brooklyn. It's going to be tough to find an arrangement for all their shortstops at the bottom of the system to get starting time. 11. Ali Sanchez, c: defensive specialist had his offense curtailed by injuries and whatever in Brooklyn in 2016, but has hit some in previous seasons. Surprisingly high ranking.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Dec 01 2016 09:04 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Gabe Llanes getting no love.

Edgy MD Dec 01 2016 09:51 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

It's like Miss America contestants. When you count down from the also rans, the drama builds. You start to think, "Am I so ugly as to not even get an honorable mention—am I a monster?—or AM I THE MOST BEAUTIFUL OF ALL?!!"

Edgy MD Dec 03 2016 04:22 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

#10. Wuilmer Becerra, rf: Becerra did everything you can hope for in St. Lucie in 2016, except hit for power, which he didn't do at all. This is a major step backwards. It's at least partially due to a torn labrum, so the optimist can say he proved he can still be useful while playing hurt, which is no small thing. The pessimist will say this isn't really much of a prospect. #9: Tomás Nido, c: The previously unheralded Nido had a breakout season in St. Lucie, so obviously the trick is to do it again. But the fact that he cut his strikeout rate in half suggests that it wasn't all some BABiP illusion, so there's that. Also a strong defender. Guess who #8 will be NOW!!!!

John Cougar Lunchbucket Dec 04 2016 02:49 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Desmond Lindsay

Edgy MD Dec 05 2016 03:52 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

I don't know who AA is bringing at #8 yet, but Baseball America has a top ten out, and they sure are bullish on Justin Dunn. 1. Amed Rosario, ss 2. Dominic Smith, 1b 3. Justin Dunn, rhp 4. Desmond Lindsay, of 5. Brandon Nimmo, of 6. Gavin Cecchini, 2b/ss 7. Robert Gsellman, rhp 8. Thomas Szapucki, lhp 9. Gabriel Ynoa, rhp 10. Tomas Nido, c The also have a lot of good things to say about Paul DePodesta and the ongoing returns from the 2011 draft. http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/n ... elrc1EZ.99 Did you know Amed Rosario's father was a judge? I didn't!

Edgy MD Dec 05 2016 05:58 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Amazin' Avenue is a little more bearish on Dunn, ranking him at #8. They cite stamina and a fastball which they say finishes flat. On the other hand, there's not much scouting you can do in 30 innings. His stock could really crash or soar this year as he moves to full season ball.

Frayed Knot Dec 07 2016 01:02 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

BA's Q & A on the heels of their NYM Top-10 list.

Edgy MD Dec 07 2016 02:33 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

My takeaways. (1) The system looks closer to recovering from the 2015 purging than I realized, and some steps forward by some backenders like Woodmansee or Mazeika could go a long way. The depth seems back, if not the same volume of blue chippers. (2) Given a chance to choose between Rosario and Gleyber Torres, he hedged, and even seemed to lean toward Rosario, which is amazing, considering Torres just buzzed through the AFL like a boss and his stock couldn't be any higher. (3) There's this question ... Neil Diamond (Brooklyn): Hi Matt, wondering about Harol Gonzalez, is he a prospect worth watching off of his big year for my Cyclones. Matt Eddy: Yes, RHP Harol Gonzalez is a prospect of interest. He doesn’t have huge stuff, but he has fine command for his age and quality secondary pitches. It’s easy for pitchers of this ilk to dominate the lower minors, so if Gonzalez continues to excel at Double-A then we can start to get excited. Neil Diamond! (4) Also ... Death Of A Gsellman (Pasadena, CA): I have seen Gsellman rated as 70/60 from BP to a B- from Sickels to a 45 somewhere else. I watched a couple of Mets games recently on MLB.tv and he looked pretty dang good. Why such the range of views and what FV grade would you slap on him? Matt Eddy: OK, I will post this one because of the creative user handle. I can’t comment on rankings from other sources. Yes, Gsellman looked good during his September callup (see above comment for September evaluations). And he gritted through a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder, which speaks to his toughness. We put a future 50 grade on him: playoff-caliber No. 4 starter. Death of a Gsellman! Sign that guy up!

MFS62 Dec 07 2016 02:34 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

BA's Q & A on the heels of their NYM Top-10 list. About two of my adoptees: He gave Bucerra a mulligan because of injuries. He gave Montero a bogey because of, I guess, lack of coach-ability. Later

Edgy MD Dec 07 2016 03:52 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Also (5) the Mets may get really raided in the Rule 5 draft.

Edgy MD Dec 07 2016 04:38 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Amazin' Avenue's #7—Gavin Cecchini: I think a lot of rankers are finding it easy to put Rosario and Smith on top, but find #s 3–8 pretty interchangable. They like his consistent contact hitting a lot but are concerned that none of his secondary skills are standing out. He's got to see more time at second, but if Rivera doesn't make the big league roster, that job will mostly be his in AAA.

Edgy MD Dec 09 2016 03:39 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Amazin' Avenue's #6—Brandon nimmo: His strong year in Vegas seems to have convinced most watchers that he's a genuine big leaguer, but the issue is whether he's a full-timer or a part-timer. And it seems that he's getting more votes for the latter at this point.

Edgy MD Dec 09 2016 06:13 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Amazin' Avenue's #5—Dominic Smith: His contact ability and defensive abilities seem to draw universal faith. Even with his 14 homers this season, there's still concern over whether his power will emerge. Me and bmfc saw him on the same night and we were both more concerned with the bowling ball he carries around under his shirt. Amazin' Avenue's #4—Desmond Lindsay: Unlike Nimmo, his first two partial seasons in short-season ball have forced the issue a bit, suggesting a quicker climb is in order. Nagging hamstring injuries are the only thing tempering his reviews (and possibly tempering a more rapid advancement).

A Boy Named Seo Dec 09 2016 06:27 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Amazin' Avenue's #5—Dominic Smith: His contact ability and defensive abilities seem to draw universal faith. Even with his 14 homers this season, there's still concern over whether his power will emerge. Me and bmfc saw him on the same night and we were both more concerned with the bowling ball he carries around under his shirt. Amazin' Avenue's #4—Desmond Lindsay: Unlike Nimmo, his first two partial seasons in short-season ball have forced the issue a bit, suggesting a quicker climb is in order. Nagging hamstring injuries are the only thing tempering his reviews (and possibly tempering a more rapid advancement). I'm not entirely put-off by a better fielding version of Eric Hosmer, but I was shocked when I saw how much Dom Smith had ballooned up.

Edgy MD Dec 10 2016 04:37 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Amazin' Avenue's #3—Thomas Szapucki: If prospect fatigue can interfere with a fair ranking of Nimmo, I guess folks should be wary of prospect novelty with this guy, because he's sure got a lot of sudden helium after nine starts split between Kingspo' and Brooly'. I'm excited too, but everybody seems to be ga-ga over his spin rate, which is, like, a brand new thing, and its meaning is probably harder to glean than all that.

Ashie62 Dec 11 2016 04:34 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

This may be redundant but Baseball America's Mets Top 10 prospects 1. Amed Rosario 2.Brandon Nimmo 3. Desmond Lindsay 4. Dominic Smith 5. Gabriel Ynoa 6. Gavin Cecchini 7 Dustin Dunn 8. Tom Szapucko 9. Robert Gsellman 10. Thomas Nito Nito is catcher. It feels like Dominic Smith has been all over the prospect map for awhile now. I take it he is portly.

bmfc1 Dec 11 2016 05:03 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Amazin' Avenue's #5—Dominic Smith: His contact ability and defensive abilities seem to draw universal faith. Even with his 14 homers this season, there's still concern over whether his power will emerge. Me and bmfc saw him on the same night and we were both more concerned with the bowling ball he carries around under his shirt. Not a great picture but yes, he's definitely a big boy and also, "baby's got back" (not pictured).

themetfairy Dec 11 2016 05:10 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Here's a better picture. Yes, he's got back.

A Boy Named Seo Dec 11 2016 05:34 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

He was listed ~205 lbs when he was drafted in 2013, but now is listed at 250. Seems he's going for a "Prince Fielder with less power" thing.

Frayed Knot Dec 11 2016 06:11 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

... he's definitely a big boy and also, "baby's got back". To quote Kevin Mitchell, during a telecast in SD earlier this year when he joined Gary & Ron in the booth for an inning or two, while discussing Yeonis Cespedes: 'I always say about hitters, ya gotta have the gluteus' Smith never was one of those 'body beautiful' guys even as a teenager [BillBean]'We're not selling jeans here!'[/billybean] If he's totally blown up since then it certainly wouldn't be a good sign although I'd be leery of basing that off published weights alone.

Edgy MD Dec 12 2016 04:58 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Amazin' Avenue's #2—Robert Gsellman: These guys seem to be universally gsiddy over this guy, including one who calls him a top-20-overall prospect. What I hadn't realized is the angle that, rather than him being just more and better from 2015 to 2016, Gsellman completely changed his approach from one year to the next, which is particularly exciting when you consider that he was effective in both seasons. When you successfully change on the fly like that, it gives you a broad foundation to stand on, to mix metaphors a bit.

Lefty Specialist Dec 12 2016 09:32 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Egsiting.

Edgy MD Dec 14 2016 03:27 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

A shocking upset! Amazin' Avenue's #1—Amed Rosario: The only flag here seems to be an unusual swing trajectory that starts high. One guy says it looks like a potential hole but nobody's exploited it yet. Another guy says it could lead to more power. The bottom line in the comments seems to be that he's really close to done cooking: "By the end of 2017"; "I expect the future to begin in 2017"; "Don't be surprised, be ready."

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Dec 14 2016 09:10 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

I would lurve it if he stuck with 99.

Benjamin Grimm Dec 14 2016 09:16 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

I think the Mets will let Cabrera hold down shortstop for 2017, with Jose Reyes as the backup. Rosario won't come to the Mets until around May 1, 2018 to delay his free agency.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 12 2017 05:08 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

John Sickels list published today. High on Szapucki and Gsellman http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/1/1 ... s-for-2017

Frayed Knot Jan 12 2017 05:49 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17 Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jan 16 2017 03:13 AM

The requisite Amed Rosario porn: 1) Amed Rosario, SS, Grade A: Age 21, signed out of Dominican Republic in 2012; hit .324/.374/.459 with 24 doubles, 13 triples, 19 steals, 40 walks, 87 strikeouts in 479 at-bats between High-A and Double-A; superior defender with plus arm strength, range, instincts; bat is developing nicely with increasing gap power and improved feel for the strike zone; excellent bat speed could lead to double-digit home runs as he matures, and he should maintain batting average to go with it; shortstop of the future and ready soon with multi-category fantasy impact ability. ETA 2018. JS hands out very few 'A' grades. That he did here probably translates to a Top-10 player when the overall lists come out in February

MFS62 Jan 12 2017 11:05 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: John Sickels list published today. High on Szapucki and Gsellman http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/1/1 ... s-for-2017 Does he ever watch a major league game, or just minor league ones? He says ETA for both Gsellman and Rivera is 2017. Doesn't he know they already made their debuts in 2016 and were major contributors down the stretch? Crap like that damages the credibility of any writer. Later

Edgy MD Jan 12 2017 11:07 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Yes, I'm sure he does watch big league games, as he reports on their performance in them in that very article. And clearly he means their arrival from this point forward.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 12 2017 11:16 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

MFS62 wrote: John Sickels list published today. High on Szapucki and Gsellman http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/1/1 ... s-for-2017 Does he ever watch a major league game, or just minor league ones? He says ETA for both Gsellman and Rivera is 2017. Doesn't he know they already made their debuts in 2016 and were major contributors down the stretch? Crap like that damages the credibility of any writer. Later It's almost as though you need to have something to say so badly you'll take up the case of a writer's "credibility" rather than actually read the article. It's obvious had you read the article you wouldn't have missed this context and needn't have wasted anyone's time to explain it. What's crap here is your effort.

MFS62 Jan 13 2017 02:44 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

I did read the article, and since he DID mention their 2016 MLB service, I wondered why ETA wasn't something like "Already MLB" instead of 2017. Isn't a discrepancy like that something the editor should catch, or at least mention to him? Later

Ashie62 Jan 15 2017 12:30 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Always good to have some catching on the way up. 10) Tomas Nido, C, Grade C+/B-: Age 22, eighth round pick in 2012; hit .320/.357/.459 with 19 walks, 42 strikeouts in 344 at-bats in High-A; threw out 42% of runners with low passed ball rate; needs to cut down further on errors but defense is highly-regarded overall; cut whiff rate in half and added 70 points to batting average; more power than seven homers implies; Double-A pitching will challenge his aggressive approach but defense will keep him in the picture long enough for him to make necessary batting adjustments. ETA late 2018.

Edgy MD Jan 27 2017 03:35 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Keith Law (Key Flaw!) has just named Amed Rosario the #3 prospect. In all of baseball.

Frayed Knot Jan 28 2017 12:16 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Also Dom Smith at #60, Thomas Szapucki = #76, Justin Dunn = #84

Centerfield Jan 28 2017 12:26 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

That seems way high. The kid has hit for one season.

Frayed Knot Jan 28 2017 12:43 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

He hit in back to back seasons really (A+ & AA) and was at least decent in the one year before that (his first full one as a pro). Total up 2015 & '16 and you get over 1,000 ABs of ~.304/.360/.440 all while being several years younger than the league as a whole. Looked at another way, he lost none of his BA & OBA in 2016 plus he improved his power all while moving up a league. Not sure how aggressive the Mets intend to be with him this spring -- start him in LV or leave him in the AA oven for some more time there -- but either way he's likely be in AAA by the time he turns 22 in June. And we'll see how the other touts see him over the next few weeks but, good glove or not, 1st basemen are essentially rated on one thing, so the fact that he's this high means at least one (non-partisan) voice believes in the future of his bat.

MFS62 Jan 28 2017 12:57 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Centerfield wrote: That seems way high. The kid has hit for one season. Is he talking about Smith or Rosario? Later

Frayed Knot Jan 28 2017 01:35 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

MFS62 wrote: Centerfield wrote: That seems way high. The kid has hit for one season. Is he talking about Smith or Rosario? My answer was assuming that CF was referring to Smith ... but maybe not. As for Rosario, I suspect most or all of the usual ratings sites are going to have him top-15-ish or better this winter. 20 y/o SSs who can field and run and hit with already a half-season of AA ball under their belts are a valuable commodity.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 28 2017 01:54 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Plus, Flaw has been gay for Rosario for years now

TheOldMole Jan 28 2017 03:57 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

How can you hit for a lofty average without having plate discipline?

MFS62 Jan 28 2017 04:01 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

TheOldMole wrote: How can you hit for a lofty average without having plate discipline? You hit line drives off "bad" pitches that fall in for hits? Ask Ichiro. Later

Frayed Knot Jan 28 2017 04:49 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Plus, Flaw has been gay for Rosario for years now Law did have Rosario higher than anyone last year; he him at #42, BA at #58, while no one else (BP, Mayo @ MLB, or Sickels) put him top 60.

Nymr83 Jan 28 2017 06:35 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Law is always (justifiably in my opinion) higher on guys he thinks can play average or better defense in the big leagues at SS/CF because the bat doesn't need to develop as much for the player to make a positive impact

Lefty Specialist Jan 28 2017 12:12 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

MFS62 wrote: TheOldMole wrote: How can you hit for a lofty average without having plate discipline? You hit line drives off "bad" pitches that fall in for hits? Ask Ichiro. Later Aaah, fuck Ichiro.

Centerfield Jan 28 2017 02:27 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Sorry. I was talking about a Rosario. From what I remember, this was the first year he put up any offensive numbers.

Frayed Knot Jan 28 2017 03:00 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Yeah, but you have to balance that against the whole package: * Age -- he's been 3 to 4 years younger than his league avg at each step and will still play this entire coming season as a 21 y/o * his rapid development -- despite essentially skipping the low-A level (just 30 ABs at Savannah) as he jumped from short-season to high-A as a teenager, he got across the board better at A+ (BA, XBHs, walk rates) and then kept on improving after moving to AA * the positional value -- most descriptions of short-stop prospects carry the "if he can remain at SS" disclaimer with them, and most don't. Of Rosario, much like Reyes a decade or so back, there seems to be no doubt that he will. I suspect Law's #3 ranking will be higher than others (I mean, it can hardly be lower) but not by all that much and at some point you're just splitting hairs when deciding who's 3rd vs who's 8th or 11th, etc.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 28 2017 03:40 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Not to mention that the tools to be a productive offensive player-- quick wrists, wiry-strong frame, good hand-eye coordination-- have been in evidence since before his signing, even if the on-field production came in fits and starts. Which is to say, this sort of offensive progress has been anticipated, not simply hoped-for.

Frayed Knot Jan 29 2017 04:23 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Jonathan Mayo and the crew over at MLB.com place Rosario as their #5 overall prospect so that makes it a bit tougher to paint Kee Flaw as overly Amed-ophilic. Also Smith at #63 so that's right in line with Law too, although those were MLB.com's only two top-100 Mets.

Frayed Knot Jan 30 2017 01:37 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Not to mention that the tools to be a productive offensive player have been in evidence since before his signing ... And not just his offensive tools. In giving a breakdown of their just-released top-100 prospects, MLB.com listed Rosario in both the 'strongest arm' and 'best defender' categories in their prospect list. He wasn't named at the very top in either, but rather as "also in the running" (meaning one of the next five) and this wasn't just comparing him to other SS but to everyone on the list regardless of position. In the arm category he's there with a 3B, two catchers and two OFs - so essentially they're saying the best SS arm in the group. In 'best defender', only Philly SS prospect JP Crawford was also a middle IF among the top six (the others were two catchers, an OF, and a 1B/OF) despite there being 15 SS among the 100

Centerfield Jan 30 2017 04:15 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

That's pretty exciting. When was the last time we had a prospect ranked that high? I don't remember Conforto or Syndegaard reaching that sort of level.

Edgy MD Jan 30 2017 04:44 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Syndergaard made Top 10 on some lists. Never top 5, I don't think. Conforto peaked around 80, but he jumped through AAA to the majors in one season and almost certainly would have been top 25 hadn't the Mets tabbed him that quickly. José Reyes hit top 5 on some lists back in 2003-ish. I don't think anybody since him has. OE: 'Til now.

Edgy MD Jan 30 2017 04:51 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

BaseballAmerica had Blastings Thrilledge ranked #9 going into the 2006 season. Oops.

Frayed Knot Jan 30 2017 05:18 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Yeah, Reyes also peaked at #3 in Baseball America's pre-2003 poll (there were fewer outlets doing this sort of stuff then) when he, like Rosario now, was coming off a season split between High-A & AA although Jose was more than a year and a half younger then as compared to what Rosario is now.

Edgy MD Jan 30 2017 08:40 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

"I think Tim Tebow should stick to announcing and probably never play baseball again,'' Law said on an ESPN conference call. "He was the worst player I've ever seen in the 10 years I've been going to the Arizona Fall League" Ouch. Let's hoping he's right about Rosario but not so much about Tebow.

Frayed Knot Jan 30 2017 08:55 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Gee Keith, do you think that might have something to do with Tebow being essentially a beginner thrown into his first game action in a league which is often used as a showcase for teams to put their up and coming hopeful stars? Look, the odds of Tebow ever appearing in a ML game are a thousand to one if not longer. But I'm not sure who's worse, the football press who's pissed off at him for committing the sin of choosing to do something with his life other than football, or the baseball purists who act all offended by someone who doesn't come up through the normal channels even one willing to subject himself to the tough road of back fields and bus rides.

Edgy MD Jan 30 2017 09:25 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

I'm guessing it's more like 30-to-one against him ever appearing. But sure, you're looking at a guy who hasn't swum in 11 years thrown right into the ocean in some pretty rough seas. It's fine to have an opinion about how he looks out there, but it's silly to declare it to be somehow definitive.

Centerfield Jan 31 2017 03:48 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Frayed Knot wrote: Gee Keith, do you think that might have something to do with Tebow being essentially a beginner thrown into his first game action in a league which is often used as a showcase for teams to put their up and coming hopeful stars? Look, the odds of Tebow ever appearing in a ML game are a thousand to one if not longer. But I'm not sure who's worse, the football press who's pissed off at him for committing the sin of choosing to do something with his life other than football, or the baseball purists who act all offended by someone who doesn't come up through the normal channels even one willing to subject himself to the tough road of back fields and bus rides. I think what offends the baseball guys are the idea that a football player can fail at that sport, then just jump over and play baseball. I think they feel that this suggests that baseball is in some way easier or inferior to football. I think this is why they go out of their way to insult Tebow and say things like he's the worst guy in the universe, bla bla bla. I'm not a football guy. I really don't get the attention given to Tebow.

Frayed Knot Jan 31 2017 05:44 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Centerfield wrote: I think what offends the baseball guys are the idea that a football player can fail at that sport, then just jump over and play baseball. I think they feel that this suggests that baseball is in some way easier or inferior to football. Which is, of course, really stupid logic. Michael Jordan failing at baseball while being maybe the best ever at basketball proves nothing more than the fact that Jordan was less suited to (and less practiced at) baseball than he was at hoops. But it's not like the sport of baseball gained anything by his brief failure. The argument some of these baseball defenders get behind is that some poor baseball lifer is being denied a spot on a roster, an argument which actually fit Jordan better as he was promoted directly to AA where he held down a spot all year despite being a .200 hitting corner OF without power. Tebow hasn't even gotten to the point where that kind of decision has come up yet.

Nymr83 Jan 31 2017 06:00 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Centerfield wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: Gee Keith, do you think that might have something to do with Tebow being essentially a beginner thrown into his first game action in a league which is often used as a showcase for teams to put their up and coming hopeful stars? Look, the odds of Tebow ever appearing in a ML game are a thousand to one if not longer. But I'm not sure who's worse, the football press who's pissed off at him for committing the sin of choosing to do something with his life other than football, or the baseball purists who act all offended by someone who doesn't come up through the normal channels even one willing to subject himself to the tough road of back fields and bus rides. I think what offends the baseball guys are the idea that a football player can fail at that sport, then just jump over and play baseball. I think they feel that this suggests that baseball is in some way easier or inferior to football. I think this is why they go out of their way to insult Tebow and say things like he's the worst guy in the universe, bla bla bla. I'm not a football guy. I really don't get the attention given to Tebow. I suspect they also go out of their way to attack Tebow for his political leaning and/or high-profile Christianity. I'm sure Tebow isnt very good - but Law would never say that about another guy.

Centerfield Jan 31 2017 06:24 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

It's interesting to compare the Tebow experience to that of Rick Ankiel. Now, of course Ankiel was successful in that he made it back to the majors as a position player, but was never really good. When Ankiel started over again, he was painted as heroic. A story in perseverance. A feel good story that made you want to root for him. Tebow, is lambasted. Some, it seems, are actively rooting against him. Like I said, I don't know enough about Tebow to know if he is generally unlikeable, but to me he seems a decent enough guy, no scandals, no wife beating, no drugs. Why not give him a chance?

Centerfield Jan 31 2017 06:27 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Frayed Knot wrote: Centerfield wrote: I think what offends the baseball guys are the idea that a football player can fail at that sport, then just jump over and play baseball. I think they feel that this suggests that baseball is in some way easier or inferior to football. Which is, of course, really stupid logic. Michael Jordan failing at baseball while being maybe the best ever at basketball proves nothing more than the fact that Jordan was less suited to (and less practiced at) baseball than he was at hoops. But it's not like the sport of baseball gained anything by his brief failure. The argument some of these baseball defenders get behind is that some poor baseball lifer is being denied a spot on a roster, an argument which actually fit Jordan better as he was promoted directly to AA where he held down a spot all year despite being a .200 hitting corner OF without power. Tebow hasn't even gotten to the point where that kind of decision has come up yet. All fair. But I imagine there is some sort of "Who's *$#! is bigger" type of competition between guys who cover football and guys who cover baseball. Or any sport for that matter. And they would be mortified if an athlete failed at another sport, then came on and succeeded at their's. Again, all really stupid logic, but I imagine there is some of that out there.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 01 2017 02:30 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Nymr83 wrote: Centerfield wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: Gee Keith, do you think that might have something to do with Tebow being essentially a beginner thrown into his first game action in a league which is often used as a showcase for teams to put their up and coming hopeful stars? Look, the odds of Tebow ever appearing in a ML game are a thousand to one if not longer. But I'm not sure who's worse, the football press who's pissed off at him for committing the sin of choosing to do something with his life other than football, or the baseball purists who act all offended by someone who doesn't come up through the normal channels even one willing to subject himself to the tough road of back fields and bus rides. I think what offends the baseball guys are the idea that a football player can fail at that sport, then just jump over and play baseball. I think they feel that this suggests that baseball is in some way easier or inferior to football. I think this is why they go out of their way to insult Tebow and say things like he's the worst guy in the universe, bla bla bla. I'm not a football guy. I really don't get the attention given to Tebow. I suspect they also go out of their way to attack Tebow for his political leaning and/or high-profile Christianity. I'm sure Tebow isnt very good - but Law would never say that about another guy. Oh, FFS. It's not an antiChristian thing. If there's something people resent about him, it's the attention he gets relative to his actual talent (football OR baseball). He's famous for being That Good-Looking Christian Guy Who Is Not Good Enough For The Pros (But Somehow Manages To Stay In The Public Eye Anyway). He's a Wholesomeseeming Kardashian.

Frayed Knot Feb 11 2017 02:35 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Baseball America: Rosario = #8 Dom Smith = #71 Justin Dunn = #100

Frayed Knot Feb 13 2017 01:41 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Need a breakdown of Thomas Nido's leap forward offensively last season? Sure, go ahead and give it to me If he keeps this up in AA then none of us will be heartbroken.

Frayed Knot Feb 13 2017 04:19 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

BP whips out their 2017 list, slotting Rosario at #8 and LHP Thomas Szapucki at 69th while leaving off Smith entirely. But then they really buck the trend on the previously thought of as 'low-ceiling' Robert Gsellman by tabbing him as their #17 prospect. Specifically on Gsellman: "... the stuff has jumped this year. The fastball looks plus-plus now, a sinker with hard, late movement in the mid-90s, the slider is a potential plus pitch and the curve has tightened up as he's thrown the hard slider more. That's a 70 FB / 60 SL / 55 CU from a guy that is already in the majors. The proximity, floor, and still remaining upside if the command and change find another half grade makes him one of the best pitching prospects in baseball for us." Only 3 pitchers are higher on their list (#1 Alex Reyes of StL, #10 Tyler Glasnow w/Pitt, #14 Lucas Giolito now w/the ChiSox) all of whom also pitched in MLB for short stints during 2016 so it's not like Gsellman has an experience jump on any of them and none can compete with him on the hair.

Frayed Knot Feb 13 2017 09:28 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

In an effort to get a jump on next year's top prospects, BA identified potential 'Breakout' stars who, while not yet on this year's Top-100, could be the ones shooting up next year's lists. They name two players per position, one each from the upper minors (High-A, AA, AAA) and from the lower minors (Low-A + Rookie/Short-season/Summer). Two Mets included in that group. [u:2mvn2ndq]First base - lower minors: Pete Alonso (Mets)[/u:2mvn2ndq] The lower minors are thin on first base prospects because typically the future first basemen of the major leagues begin their careers at other positions. Injuries slowed Alonso in college, but the Mets’ second-round pick has the combination of power and hitting ability that should lead to success at higher levels. [u:2mvn2ndq]Shortstop - lower minors: Andres Gimenez (Mets)[/u:2mvn2ndq] Our top three prospects on the 2015 international market were Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), Gimenez and Leody Taveras (Rangers). Guerrero and Taveras are both top 50 prospects and rank No. 1 in their organizations. Gimenez hasn’t received the same attention because he’s yet to debut in the United States, but his talent is on par with his fellow elite 2015 signings. Gimenez had a terrific Dominican Summer League season and should shoot up prospect rankings next year with an exciting blend of tools and baseball skills.

Edgy MD Feb 13 2017 09:39 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

So how about that huge rating on Gsellman followed by a kick in the balls with Smith? Prospectus totally ignores the consensus of their peers. They stand alone and give not a shit.

Edgy MD Feb 13 2017 09:47 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Does Baseball America consider Gsellman graduated or just not good enough?

Frayed Knot Feb 13 2017 10:05 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Edgy MD wrote: Does Baseball America consider Gsellman graduated or just not good enough? Well pretty much all these ratings sites use the standard rookie classification as their cut-off and, if you flip back to page 1 of this here thread, you'll see that BA had Gsellman as their #7 among NYM prospects. They just don't have him making their overall Top-100, nor did Mayo at MLB.com, nor did Law/ESPN. John Sickels however did (list also out today) although, at #59, he was so not quite so bullish as BP despite adding in his comments section that he believed that "what we saw late in the year was not a fluke" and that this higher than most rating here "may prove too pessimistic."

Frayed Knot Feb 14 2017 02:04 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17 Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Feb 20 2017 08:59 PM

With all the big lists now out, here's this year's consensus top twenty via a combined mash-up of five of the major ones (MLB, ESPN, BP, BA, Sickels) #1 Andrew Benintendi - OF Boston - Highest Level Played thru 2016 = MLB Would have passed his rookie status last year if not for a late season knee injury #2 Dansby Swanson - SS Braves - MLB #3 Alex Reyes - RHP Cardinals - MLB #4 Yoan Moncada - 2B? - White Sox - MLB #5 - Amed Rosario - SS NYM - AA #6 - Gleyber Torres - SS NYY - High A Biggest prize from the Cubs in the late season Aroldis Chapman deal #7 - Austin Meadows - OF Pirates - AAA #8 - J.P. Crawford - SS Phillies - AAA #9 - Victor Robles - OF Nationals - High A #10 - Eloy Jimenez - OF Cubs - Low A #11 - Cody Bellinger - 1B Dodgers - AAA Son of short-term (1999-2002) MFY pitcher Clay #12 - Rafael Devers - 3B Red Sox - High A #13 - Lucas Giolito - RHP White Sox - MLB #14 - Tyler Glasnow - RHP Pirates - MLB #15 - Brendan Rodgers - SS Rockies - Low A #16 - Ozzie Albies - SS Braves - AAA Another Braves teenager (just turned 20) out of Curacao #17 - Nick Senzel - 3B Reds - Low A #18 - Michael Kopech - RHP White Sox - High A #19 - Willy Adames - SS Rays - AA Lotsa shortstops up high this year #20 - Anderson Espinoza - RHP Padres - Low A Gsellman = 57 Dom Smith = 70 Thomas Szapucky = 94

Edgy MD Feb 14 2017 02:23 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Frayed Knot wrote: #11 - Cody Bellinger - 1B Dodgers - AAA Son of short-term (1999-2002) MFY pitcher Clay Lance Niekro and Ike Davis have made me suspicious of slugging, first base-playin' sons of short-term Yankee pitchers, the sons of Dave LaRoche notwithstanding.

Frayed Knot Feb 14 2017 02:46 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

btw, check out the prospects originally signed and/or drafted by the BoSox - 5 of the top 20, 7 of the top 31 Andrew Benintendi - #1 7th overall pick - 2015, U Arkansas Yoan Moncada - #4 Cuban FA signing ($31.5 mil/3 yrs) - dealt to CWS in Chris Sale deal Raphael Devers - #12 Int’l signing from Dom Rep ($1.5 mil) Michael Kopech - #18 1st round (33rd overall) draft pick in 2014 out of HS - dealt to White Sox in Chris Sale deal Anderson Espinoza - #20 Int’l signing from Venz ($1.8 mil) - dealt to SDP for Drew Pomeranz Manual Margot - #21 Int’l signing from Dom Rep (800K) - dealt to SD for Craig Kimbrel Jason Groome - #31 1st round (12th overall) draft pick 2016 out of HS in NJ The best way to make trading top prospects not as painful is to have plenty of them in reserve.

Frayed Knot Feb 19 2017 04:51 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Frayed Knot wrote: I suspect Law's #3 ranking [of Rosario] will be higher than others (I mean, it can hardly be lower) but not by all that much and at some point you're just splitting hairs when deciding who's 3rd vs who's 8th or 11th, etc. The final tally on Rosario from the four major ranking lists that I follow in addition to Law at ESPN were: 5th (MLB), 5th (Sickels), 8th (BA) & 8th (BP) So while we were wondering whether Law was overly rosy on our guy Rosy, the answer is slightly (if at all) and that if he's wrong on this guy then essentially everyone is wrong.

MFS62 Feb 23 2017 10:05 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Here's MLB.com's Mets top 30. http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=nym Click on the names and see the scouting reports. Later

Frayed Knot Mar 24 2017 02:57 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Frayed Knot wrote: the positional value [of Amed Rosario] -- most descriptions of short-stop prospects carry the "if he can remain at SS" disclaimer with them, and most don't. Of Rosario, much like Reyes a decade or so back, there seems to be no doubt that he will. Short BP article on how often top SS prospects remain at SS.

Edgy MD Mar 24 2017 03:20 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

I question the methodology there. By taking guys who are in the top 100, you lose players who've already been moved. You're limited to guys who've had a bit of time to cast their fate. Your starting pool should be guys signed as shortstops. You could perhaps then identify "top prospects" as guys taken in the first two rounds or foreign players signed with a bonus over X threshold. This would allow them to go back and include Wally Backman and Gregg Jeffries, and even professional imports like Kazuo Matsui. Heck, Mickey Mantle and Hank Aaron too, if they want to go back that far. The methodology also fails as it looks at total MLB games played at shortstop as a bottom line, rather than percentage of games played at shortstop. This misinterprets guys like Chin-lung Hu, who didn't fail to stick at shortstop, but failed to mature as a hitter.

Ashie62 Mar 24 2017 10:26 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

I HAVE FAITH IN BUCCERRA.

Frayed Knot Apr 12 2017 04:28 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Early returns on Amed Rosario's debut in AAA: 11 for 26 although all are singles and with no walks, leading to the rather interesting slash line of .423/.423/.423 Also 2 SBs in 3 attempts and only 2 strikeouts

MFS62 Apr 13 2017 12:31 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Frayed Knot wrote: Early returns on Amed Rosario's debut in AAA: 11 for 26 although all are singles and with no walks, leading to the rather interesting slash line of .423/.423/.423 Also 2 SBs in 3 attempts and only 2 strikeouts Keith Law has now named Amed as the #1 prospect in all of baseball. http://www.amazinavenue.com/2017/4/12/1 ... -keith-law Later

Benjamin Grimm Apr 13 2017 12:47 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Joel Sherman in the Post speculates that the Mets may give up on both Wright and Reyes, put Rosario at shortstop and move Cabrera to third.

Frayed Knot Apr 13 2017 01:24 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

A bit premature on that kind of projection. Even Miguel Cabrera has of 3 singles in 24 ABs (.125) so far this season so we need to stick a big SSS alert on Jose-Jose still. If Reyes is hitting one-something in June and Rosario still at .400-plus at the same time then maybe we'll talk, and even then it depends on what the story is with Wright, Flores, and Rivera.

Edgy MD Apr 30 2017 04:10 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Just tuned in to the Las Vegas game and one pitch later, Amed Rosario hit his first AAA homer.

Frayed Knot May 22 2017 01:44 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Frayed Knot wrote: Early returns on Amed Rosario's debut in AAA: 11 for 26 although all are singles and with no walks, leading to the rather interesting slash line of .423/.423/.423 Also 2 SBs in 3 attempts and only 2 strikeouts Nothing like an off-day Monday for an Amed Rosario update. The extra base hits are starting to kick as now 20 of his 63 hits have gone for XB: 13 doubles, 3 triples, 4 HR And given the singles-happy nature of the start he was off to (see above) that's really 20 XBH of his last 52 hits overall. Now slashing .360/.398/.537 Walks still a bit low though not absurdly so and are picking up. K's not too bad (26 in 191 PA), steals a decent 8 of 11. Could do without the nine errors but aren't too worried there.

Ashie62 May 23 2017 07:38 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

This came out today in SL and is a pretty complete update on many names in the system. I wasn't really aware how highly ranked SP Justin Dunn is. [url]http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2017/05/mets_prospect_watch_from_a_to_z.html

Frayed Knot Jun 30 2017 12:35 AM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

Catcher Tomas Nido and Amed Rosario will be your Mets representing the World squad in the 'Futures Game' during the ASB

Frayed Knot Jul 15 2017 05:09 PM Re: Prospect Season - 2016/17

The downside to prospects ... sometimes they don't turn out to be what you think they're going to. So after coming out with their mid-season Top-50 list, BP goes back in time and does their Top-50 All-Time Bust List from the 'draft era' of MLB They admit up front that such a list is far from complete and that those listed were necessarily the worst players as some -- Gregg Jefferies -- went on to have nice careers, but rather they're trying to identify the gap between the final payoff as compared to what the hype was at the time and maybe figure out where it all went wrong. There are four NYMs in there. Well five really, but one kind of has an asterisk attached. On the other hand, four of the top (meaning worst) five were MFY prospects. And to think, it was just yesterday when I was talking about the Michael Pineda/Jesus Montero deal.