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A Consensus on Lucas Duda

A Boy Named Seo Jan 16 2017 07:11 PM

"its ok our kind are the founding fathers of a better tomorrow" This made me LOL a few good times. http://www.amazinavenue.com/2017/1/6/14 ... lucas-duda

Edgy MD Jan 16 2017 10:01 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

That's pretty dogged journalism right there.

Zvon Jan 17 2017 03:26 AM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

I'm not even done reading it yet but: "I asked dozens, maybe even hundreds of people their opinion of Lucas Duda as a baseball player....." ...maybe even? Can't he keep count of how many people he asked? He takes quite a leap there.

Zvon Jan 17 2017 03:30 AM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

Oh, so the piece is a big joke. I didn't find it funny. David Capobianco owns me five minutes of my time.

dinosaur jesus Jan 17 2017 06:13 AM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

I think it's funny.

A Boy Named Seo Jan 17 2017 03:29 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

Where is the absolute worst place you can go searching for an informed opinion? From anonymous internet commenters. "what is your opinion of lucas duda as a baseball player" "also can you put on a shirt" ... is funny.

Centerfield Jan 17 2017 05:45 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

This question requires you to put on a shirt.

A Boy Named Seo Jan 17 2017 05:59 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

Funny!

Zvon Jan 18 2017 03:34 AM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

Yea, I might be a little extra sensitive when it comes to The Dude. I really want him to have that season we all know he can have at full potential. I want 40 HRs in '17(last yr I probably demanded 30ish, maybe even 25) 120 RBI.-.280.BA.! A lot to ask but I know he can do it. [fimg=500:yykfv045]https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/NDI__qtnBMo931-GOHaqTm3dFcacUHpKPRb_aTbLjNe6O10sMNUWqVOIYGKs4Yv3mt_9I1nieDWilavObMO5shb_PJXVnRa4iJnDMjFMJDunk9Bx9kCgOE82ECN6WFb5Hp65p5zoyR9zxgzMmeCdvm9PIh5d-apxfz0DmuKSXtHMEZWlocwjtx8S9kU3rh_yUd9fyl52iqLN5dalotOzSP70UMImYiRHyzXAciHmc-C-SoxV58IX8JGP-PZzse-27L-6_7oTiQwiVtoUnO52_Iw40D6DrLvEv9ogYCvAnqJvkVZGyrguax1L0tfNrPgch_RuSERvXFzF8REQJjbt9TAO4yd1barkCseO_-9oXkdgaIZQqTLBVfl-WMGe2Xjsulbkkf7Ao6fD2Go6tanWrzq14gdl-Kakc_Sk4UE3JtdE4oqvA9DOysckQUoOpyJA_dQCNNaP8PFNh4BhkTVbpmWZRLzoDarF-WMUmIw-t5LRTfBw1LR9KaJhem9AlMUqLk_XCjXUP_6_Prt-YudOggZvGpSW19wrSikRYW_F1b1aV6Z2LKnRuR-d3_X8NaLW6zxbOalB9oQMYsfsZJVT7Y-kRLGQEvn7rsdduVVvaZnuPr8IkJWrwg=w2048-h1152-no[/fimg:yykfv045]

Ashie62 Jan 18 2017 03:51 AM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

I'm not one of the "all knows" but my hope is that he be healthy and perform somewhere in the middle of the pack of 1B's.

Ceetar Jan 18 2017 02:05 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

Ashie62 wrote: I'm not one of the "all knows" but my hope is that he be healthy and perform somewhere in the middle of the pack of 1B's. well in 2014-2016 he's 13th of 36 qualifying 1B in fWAR. I think 'middle of the pack' is probably his floor.

Centerfield Jan 18 2017 03:07 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

I think with that leg kick, he is always going to be a streaky hitter. I just hope that one day he can learn to be a bit more productive during his valleys. Like if he doesn't hit HR's but can put the ball in play, take a few walks. Not be a complete black hole.

dinosaur jesus Jan 18 2017 03:22 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

Lucas Duda is probably my favorite current Met. I love the guy. I can't say I believe in him, because I don't think he quite believes in himself, which is the problem. But he has the gift, if that's what it is, of being much better than people realize. I'm drawn to players like that. (Wayne Garrett. Olerud.) And I think he's got at least one terrific season in him. He's also hilarious. He's a big, goofy guy with a funny name who seems embarrassed about being a (relatively) famous athlete. Just the idea of Lucas Duda is funny somehow, which is the point of those Instagram photos that Granderson posts. And the writer of this piece is on to that too. He's not mocking him. It's really a kind of tribute, a way of saying that he gets Lucas Duda, and he hopes he's not the only one.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 18 2017 03:48 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

I'm with Dino all the way. I have to say though that the Duda is Good evangelists are risking being sorta smug about it

Vic Sage Jan 18 2017 05:15 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

But he has the gift, if that's what it is, of being much better than people realize. I'm drawn to players like that. (Wayne Garrett. Olerud.) i don't think its a gift. It's a skill called On-Base Percentage. Traditional metrics didn't value you it much, but modern metrics do, so those who understand the impact of OBP on productivity have greater respect for those players who may have seemed unexceptional otherwise. That being said, i find Duda so frustrating because of his intense streakiness. It's not like he has a good week and then a bad week. It's like he has a non-existent 2 months, followed by a torrid 6 weeks, and then disappears again. It's hard to count on a player like that.

batmagadanleadoff Jan 18 2017 05:23 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

dinosaur jesus wrote: Lucas Duda is probably my favorite current Met. I love the guy. I can't say I believe in him, because I don't think he quite believes in himself, which is the problem. But he has the gift, if that's what it is, of being much better than people realize. I'm drawn to players like that. (Wayne Garrett. Olerud.) And I think he's got at least one terrific season in him. He's also hilarious. He's a big, goofy guy with a funny name who seems embarrassed about being a (relatively) famous athlete. Just the idea of Lucas Duda is funny somehow, which is the point of those Instagram photos that Granderson posts. And the writer of this piece is on to that too. He's not mocking him. It's really a kind of tribute, a way of saying that he gets Lucas Duda, and he hopes he's not the only one. I can really relate to this post. I think I root for Duda to improve his game more so than for any other Met. Plus, he's so lovable. Also, Garrett and Olerud are two of my all-time favorite Mets, ranking much higher on my imaginary and somewhat vague list than their skills merit. Although Olerud was one of the best Mets ever, now that I think of it. With Garrett, it was definitely the OBP thing, which I figured out and was totally onto since I was in Junior High School some 40 years ago thanks to obsessively playing solitaire Strat-O-Matic.

HahnSolo Jan 18 2017 05:40 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

I'm a big fan of Duda. And my like for him is bolstered by the seemingly irrational hatred for the Dude on Mets/SNY social media. Then again those people seem to hate everything.

Centerfield Jan 18 2017 05:49 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

I like Duda a lot too. And loved Olerud during his time here. I'm also a big fan of Jacob deGrom and his "aw shucks" demeanor. All of these make sense. But I also love Cespedes who is as far from Duda as one can be. And Rickey Henderson is one of my all-time favorites. I think I like the humble guys, and the comically outlandish.

MFS62 Jan 19 2017 02:18 AM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

I like him and want him to do well. I also think that someone like Keith Hernandez (a proven veteran) should tap him on the shoulder and lure him over to the batting cage this Spring to show him how to go with the pitch against the shift. IMO it would do wonders toward flattening out those peaks and valleys. And the reason it should be a stealth kind of training is that if the reporters found out about it, they'd be all over him daily in Spring Training asking how he is progressing. And because of his personality, that would put pressure on him. Later

Edgy MD Jan 19 2017 03:02 AM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

I think that's part of how Duda is misunderstood and under appreciated. He goes the other way plenty.

MFS62 Jan 19 2017 02:11 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

Edgy MD wrote: I think that's part of how Duda is misunderstood and under appreciated. He goes the other way Funny how perception becomes reality. Didn't realize that. Thanks. Later

Benjamin Grimm Jan 19 2017 02:14 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

Edgy MD wrote: He goes the other way plenty. But not in the way that Mike Piazza does, right?

dinosaur jesus Jan 19 2017 02:38 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

Edgy MD wrote: I think that's part of how Duda is misunderstood and under appreciated. He goes the other way plenty. Yes, but look at what kinds of balls he hits the other way. His fly balls are pretty well distributed, but his ground balls are almost all to the right side, where the shift is. I think the perception is right on this one.

Centerfield Jan 19 2017 02:49 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

The link seems to go to Lucas Duda, in 2015, against lefties only. I can't seem to get it to switch to other years, and against all pitchers. Anyway, DJ is right. Lucas hits fly balls the other way, but all of his ground balls are hit to the right side. Which is why the shift is effective against him. If he learned to go the other way on the ground, consistently, there are a lot of holes on that side of the field to find base hits. And if you do that enough, they have to stop shifting.

Ceetar Jan 19 2017 03:13 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

Centerfield wrote: The link seems to go to Lucas Duda, in 2015, against lefties only. I can't seem to get it to switch to other years, and against all pitchers. Anyway, DJ is right. Lucas hits fly balls the other way, but all of his ground balls are hit to the right side. Which is why the shift is effective against him. If he learned to go the other way on the ground, consistently, there are a lot of holes on that side of the field to find base hits. And if you do that enough, they have to stop shifting. [url]http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=2502&position=1B/OF&type=battedball&pid2=2502&ss1=2012&se1=2015&ss2=2012&se2=2015&cht1=hittype&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL In short, yes, but no. Lucas Duda is not trying to hit ground balls. he doesn't want to hit ground balls. All ground balls are essentially mistakes where he got on top of the ball, and as such, he's usually out in front and pulls them. This makes sense. Balls with more sink, movement, etc, that are slower than a fastball. These are the pitches you'd presumably want him to flick/bunt the other way, and these are sliders. You're not going to have a ton of success bunting a slider the other way. Lucas Duda DESTROYS fastballs. There is no sense wasting his power taking a pitch like that the other way. It's the curveballs and sliders that he loses value on, these are the ones he's missing for soft contact. And it's counter-intuitive to take a pitch that's slower than you're expecting and wait even longer and flick it the other way. You start waiting a tick longer for pitches and suddenly you're late on the fastballs and those are the ones we want him to destroy. What Duda needs to do to go from Very good to Great is lay off more of the curveballs and sliders, even strikes, so he doesn't make outs on them so he can see more pitches and find more fastballs.

Edgy MD Jan 19 2017 03:20 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

Yeah, if you use the menus and get him over a couple of years, against all pitchers, you see his distribution is pretty liberal across the field, even while his grounders tend to go to the right. But even most guys known as a spray hittters are going to favor their pull side somewhat. That's just how it goes.

Ceetar Jan 19 2017 03:23 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

From 2014-2016 of all 235 qualified batters, Duda is 61st on value per 100 four-seam fastballs. He's 8th in cutters. (There is undoubtedly a line in his scouting report that reads: "DO NOT THROW CUTTER") 42nd on 2-seam fastballs. 52nd on Splitters. 9th on Sinkers. 218th on Curveballs (he's actually gotten better with sliders. middle of the pack)

Centerfield Jan 19 2017 03:31 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

Edgy MD wrote: Yeah, if you use the menus and get him over a couple of years, against all pitchers, you see his distribution is pretty liberal across the field, even while his grounders tend to go to the right. But even most guys known as a spray hittters are going to favor their pull side somewhat. That's just how it goes. Sure. Somewhat. But Duda's ground ball distribution is drastic. Here is his spray chart against all pitchers: http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.as ... LL&vs2=ALL His groundball distribution grossly favors the right. Compare that to Daniel Murphy, an actual spray hitter: http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.as ... battedball Murphy's chart favors the right side as well, but he has a substantial number of ground balls going to the left side of the infield. Murphy is a spray hitter. Duda is not.

Ceetar Jan 19 2017 03:37 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

and Duda is the better hitter.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 19 2017 04:06 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

I think the way a guy like Doodoo beats the shift is smashing the ball into the Pepsi Porch and should be careful as to how much he adjusts his approach just for the sake of a few singles

themetfairy Jan 19 2017 04:35 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

I like Duda. I want him to do well. Fingers crossed!

Centerfield Jan 19 2017 04:36 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

Well that's the thing right? Does a spray hitting approach negatively impact his greatest strength (power). We'd all love for someone to hit for average and power. Easier said than done. But anyway, my point is to state that Duda is not a true spray hitter. So the perception is somewhat well-founded.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 19 2017 04:49 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

And my point is that the shift is probably most effective when it prevents home run hitters from trying to hit home runs

A Boy Named Seo Jan 19 2017 05:38 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

Another truly layman's observation, but guys today never (hardly ever?) cheat up a few inches the box. Most even have their back spike a few inches outside the batter's box. Those extra inches are probably necessary for the extra velocity nowadays, but cheating up a little can help catch 12-6 curves before they dip below the knees (or curves at the knees destined for the dirt), and hard sliders before break your bat on either side of the plate. I don't think moving up a little in the box in ST would mean he's trying to become Tony Gwynn or anything, and would may help him stay on top of some breaking stuff, a bit more realistic than hoping he never swings at one out of the zone. If he's getting burned by heat over and over, just scrap the whole thing. Signed, Genius on the Internet

Centerfield Jan 19 2017 06:54 PM Re: A Consensus on Lucas Duda

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: And my point is that the shift is probably most effective when it prevents home run hitters from trying to hit home runs Maybe. But maybe not. I don't think being a spray hitter and a HR hitter are mutually exclusive. Take a look at Carlos Gonzalez spray chart: http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.as ... battedball This looks like a guy with a .291 career average. The approach doesn't stop Carlos from hitting with power. Trying a different approach may or may not work. Certainly it's hard, which is why the elite hitters are elite. But I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that he try. Look what it did for Yoenis Cespedes over the last two years. In 2014, Cespedes hit .260 and hit 22 HR's. His spray chart: http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.as ... LL&vs2=ALL In 2015, he started to spray the ball a bit more, and got better results, both in BA and in power. By 2016, his spray chart looks a lot different: http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.as ... LL&vs2=ALL A lot more green on the second base side. Now, it may or may not work with Duda. But how would we know without him trying?