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Predictions From Others

bmfc1 Feb 06 2017 11:39 AM Edited 21 time(s), most recently on Apr 01 2017 02:45 AM

The pre-season magazines are making their way to our newsstands and CVS's. Where does each one think that the Mets will finish in 2017? When you see one, whether or not you buy the magazine, put the prediction here. Sporting News Baseball Yearbook: 2nd place, no WC (too many injuries to overcome at one time) Rotoworld Fantasy Baseball Preview: 2nd place, WC Baseball Prospectus PECOTA: 1st place, 88 wins (WSH with 87) Fangraphs: 2nd place, 84 wins (6 GB) Jonah Keri: Vegas odds, 89.5--he says "under" http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/jonah ... oyals/amp/ Lindy's: 2nd place, WC Baseball Engine Fantasy (something like that): 2nd place, 86 wins (9 GB), no WC Baseball Weekly: 2d place, 89 wins (1 GB) Athlon: 2d place, no WC SI: 2d place, 90 wins, 1 GB, WC, win WC, lose to Cubs in NLDS Washington Post: 2d place SB Nation: 2d place Sports on Earth (Will Leitch): 2d place, 83 wins, no WC SI: https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/03/29/seaso ... twitter_si Tim Kurkjian: 2d place, no WC Hardball Talk: 3 WC picks: http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2017/03/30/our ... oney-back/ USA Today: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ml ... /99840328/ Newsday: https://twitter.com/joe_manniello/statu ... 88/photo/1 Mike Puma in the Post: 91-71, 1st place ESPN: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/page/Se ... redictions The Big Lead: http://thebiglead.com/2017/03/31/the-bi ... edictions/ 538: WC https://fivethirtyeight.com/sports/ The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/30/spor ... front&_r=0 The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/ ... icago-cubs

Frayed Knot Feb 06 2017 01:31 PM Re: Predictions From Others

I find it amusing when folks think themselves able to predict future injuries.

Centerfield Feb 06 2017 02:42 PM Re: Predictions From Others

I think all of these guys will come in at second place. I mean, it's the exact same and the race wasn't particularly close, so I think it's hard to come out anywhere else. Unless you believe in Atlanta or Miami.

Ceetar Feb 06 2017 03:13 PM Re: Predictions From Others

will you update the top with all of them so they're in one place? Fangraphs, as of this morning, as the Mets tied with the Cardinals for second wild card at 84-78. (6 games out) [url]http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings#NL-E

bmfc1 Feb 06 2017 03:17 PM Re: Predictions From Others

Good idea Ceetar. Fangraphs is a moving target but any others will be collected at the top.

Ceetar Feb 06 2017 03:20 PM Re: Predictions From Others

bmfc1 wrote: Good idea Ceetar. Fangraphs is a moving target but any others will be collected at the top. I think it's worth throwing in the projection systems, maybe not today's, but at the start of spring or the season. I mean, they're usually more well thought out than random columnist's.

Edgy MD Feb 07 2017 03:13 PM Re: Predictions From Others

And PECOTA projections, published this morning, like the Mets as 2017 National League East champs. I don't know what that's worth. Probably not much, but possibly more than Bill Pecota was worth in 1992.

Ceetar Feb 07 2017 03:32 PM Re: Predictions From Others

Edgy MD wrote: And PECOTA projections, published this morning, like the Mets as 2017 National League East champs. I don't know what that's worth. Probably not much, but possibly more than Bill Pecota was worth in 1992. PECOTA's about as solid as projections come these days. 88 wins for the Mets and 87 for the Nationals. If we're going to tabulate these things, PECOTA has to be included or I literally don't care.

bmfc1 Feb 16 2017 08:52 PM Re: Predictions From Others

"will you update the top with all of them so they're in one place?" I'm doing that by editing the 1st post but the thread stays buried unless I write something like this to bump it up.

bmfc1 Mar 21 2017 07:24 PM Re: Predictions From Others

I'm bumping this because it's been updated at the top and more predictions will be made as the season approaches.

metirish Mar 21 2017 07:35 PM Re: Predictions From Others

bmfc1 wrote: I'm bumping this because it's been updated at the top and more predictions will be made as the season approaches. Oh, you've been to CVS then?

Frayed Knot Mar 21 2017 08:06 PM Re: Predictions From Others

From Sports Illustrated They suggest taking the Mets for 'Over' CHICAGO CUBS 96.5 CLEVELAND 93.5 LOS ANGELES NL 92.5 BOSTON 91.5 NEW YORK METS 90.5 WASHINGTON 90.5 ST LOUIS 88.5 HOUSTON 87.5 SAN FRANCISCO 87.5 PITTSBURGH 85.5 SEATTLE 85.5 TEXAS 85.5 TORONTO 85.5 BALTIMORE 84.5 DETROIT 84.5 NEW YORK AL 83.5 KANSAS CITY 81.5 COLORADO 80.5 LOS ANGELES AL 76.5 MIAMI 76.5 TAMPA BAY 75.5 CINCINNATI 73.5 PHILADELPHIA 72.5 ARIZONA 71.5 CHICAGO WS 71.5 MILWAUKEE 71.5 MINNESOTA 70.5 OAKLAND 66.5 SAN DIEGO 64.5

bmfc1 Mar 29 2017 09:10 PM Re: Predictions From Others

bump

John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 30 2017 12:00 PM Re: Predictions From Others

A sim on Out of the Park baseball gives the Mets 92 wins but 6 back from WAS. But who knows. They also have the Braves losing 101 and the Orioles 100. http://valueoverreplacementgrit.com/201 ... 17-season/

Edgy MD Mar 30 2017 12:18 PM Re: Predictions From Others

The pitching just isn't there for the Orioles. And while it's there for the Braves, it's a million years old and liable to cave in at any time. But that's just one possible way it plays out. the better use of sims is to play them out a thousand times and publish the averages. The averages are boring, because folks cluster around the mean, but probably more predictive. Anyhow, the Mets need a healthy on-base guy, or two even. They need a Trout or a Votto but I'll accept a Nimmo and Conforto if they can make the jump. Too many solo homers makes for a big offense but not necessarily a championship one, winning 9-5 games but losing 3-1 ones.

Benjamin Grimm Mar 30 2017 01:09 PM Re: Predictions From Others

"America's Line" (not sure who they are, other than that they supply the odds that appear in the Daily News) has the following: The odds of the Mets winning the World Series is 15-1. Teams ranked ahead of the Mets are Cubs (4-1), Red Sox (5-1), Indians (8-1), Dodgers (10-1), Nationals and Giants (12-1). The Astros are also at 15-1. Yankees are 25-1. The teams with the worst odds are the Reds and Brewers at 200-1. The over/under for Mets wins is 87.5, tied with the Giants. (I'd take the over for the Mets.) Teams ranked ahead of them are Cubs (96.5), Dodgers and Red Sox (93.5), Indians (92.5), Nationals (91.5), and Astros (90.5). Yankees are 83.5. Marlins are 78.5, Braves are 75.5, and Phillies are 74.5. The Padres have the lowest number, 66.5. The favorite to win the MVP is Kris Bryant at 2-1. The only Met listed is Yoenis Cespedes at 25-1. Between Bryant and Cespedes are, in order, Bryce Harper, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rizzo, Corey Seager, Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, and Buster Posey. Giancarlo Stanton is a 5-1 favorite to lead the majors in homers. Cespedes is 20-1.

Edgy MD Mar 30 2017 01:32 PM Re: Predictions From Others

2-1 on Bryant is kind of krazy. I'd take the field every time.

Benjamin Grimm Mar 30 2017 02:20 PM Re: Predictions From Others

I agree. I don't know if that's an option, though.

bmfc1 Mar 31 2017 03:45 PM Re: Predictions From Others

I predict that I won't start this thread in 2018. The excitement of getting the Sporting News Yearbook in late January has changed to "aw crap, here's another one."

Ceetar Mar 31 2017 03:58 PM Re: Predictions From Others

Ted Berg at For The Win predicts the Mets win the division, lose the NLDS.

G-Fafif Mar 31 2017 05:16 PM Re: Predictions From Others

bmfc1 wrote: I predict that I won't start this thread in 2018. The excitement of getting the Sporting News Yearbook in late January has changed to "aw crap, here's another one." This belongs in the 2018 Predictions thread.

DocTee Mar 31 2017 09:16 PM Re: Predictions From Others

2-1 on Bryant is kind of krazy. I'd take the field every time. There's nobody between Bryant (2-1) and Cespedes (25-1)?

Ashie62 Mar 31 2017 09:55 PM Re: Predictions From Others

The MLB simulation "The Show" has the Mets winning it all. [url]http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mets-will-win-2017-world-series-because-our-mlb-the-show-simulation-says-so/

Benjamin Grimm Mar 31 2017 11:15 PM Re: Predictions From Others

DocTee wrote: 2-1 on Bryant is kind of krazy. I'd take the field every time. There's nobody between Bryant (2-1) and Cespedes (25-1)? There were a bunch. I didn't feel like typing them all.