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The Edge of Seventeen: Steven Matz

Edgy MD Mar 09 2017 10:18 PM

For one month at time, I'm the best guy on this pitching staff, and that's saying something. Seriously, who was better than me in May? Nobody. Well, Clayton Kershaw was, but nobody on the Mets was. I'm that good. But if I'm not pitching 100%, I'm just another pitcher, and even when I'm not really hurting enough to go on the DL, I'm often not 100%. And that means, I'm often just another pitcher. But, then there's that two months out of the year. I can be Koosman on this team. I really can. But I can also be Rick Aguilera, the ace that got lost in the shuffle, the guy that never really turns the corner and puts together that full season of All-Star starting pitching. Which is it? [fimg=329:s046or85]http://fixingpitchers.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/steven-matz-follow-through.jpg[/fimg:s046or85] [fimg=391:s046or85]http://cdn.newsday.com/polopoly_fs/1.10588974.1435531373!/httpImage/image.JPG_gen/derivatives/landscape_1280/image.JPG[/fimg:s046or85] [fimg=339:s046or85]https://static01.nyt.com/images/2015/06/29/sports/29REDSjp1/29REDSjp1-master1050.jpg[/fimg:s046or85] [fimg=381:s046or85]http://images.performgroup.com/di/library/omnisport/29/16/matz-steven-062815-usnews-getty-ftr_k8z1a3olwaon1am5kwaly9f9s.jpg?t=1012380830[/fimg:s046or85]

MFS62 Mar 09 2017 11:19 PM Re: The Edge of Seventeen: Steven Matz

Best number 4 starter in the league, and better than many #3's. Stays healthy (one short DL scare). 15-7 2.94 31 starts. Later

batmagadanleadoff Mar 11 2017 08:47 PM Re: The Edge of Seventeen: Steven Matz

Here's Matz's write-up from Baseball Prospectus' 2016 Annual, published just before the start of the 2016 season: Matz started the year in Triple-A and ended it in the World Series; his six career regular season starts were the third fewest of all time for a World Series starter, behind Joe Black (two) in 1952 and Marty Bystrom (five) in 1980. Matz got there by tying up what few loose ends he still had. His fastball generated far more movement in the big leagues than scouts had seen in years past. He gained substantial velocity differential on his changeup against his fastball -- 7 to 8 mph in years past versus 11 mph after his promotion -- [Isn't it about time Warthen starts getting his due as a tremendous pitching coach?] just in time to make it a serviceable show pitch to big league righties. He experienced a Harvey-esque velocity explosion. Previously clocked in the low 90s, Matz's 94.6 average fastball velocity was behind only Chris Sale and David Price among left-handed starters. Best of all, before starting Game Four of the World Series, Matz slept at home on Long Island, in his own bed. Not a bad way to cap a year. And here's his write-up from this year's BP: Matz was hot out of the gate in 2016, an early contender for Rookie of the Year before Corey Seager decided that there were no plausible contenders. He reported an elbow problem after a start on May 9, which turned out to be a large bone spur that wasn't publicly revealed for another month and a half, as the Mets danced around the phrase "structural damage." Jon Heyman of FanRag reported around that time that the Mets convinced Matz to continue pitching through pain, and he did with decreasing effectiveness until his shoulder joined the chorus of barking in August. After another month of unsuccessfully trying to get him back on the mound, the Mets finally gave in and shut Matz down at the end of September. Surgery to remove the bone spur followed a few days later. You've probably noticed by now that a lot of these [Mets] comments follow the same formula. When healthy, such and such Met is good/great, but in 2016, that Met wasn't healthy much/at all and the Mets pushed the situation too far. Honestly, this isn't the first Annual in which that's been the case, and you might think at some point, the Mets would consider changes to their medical and training staff. Instead, trainer Ray Ramirez will get booed by the diehards at his umpteenth consecutive Opening Day.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 11 2017 10:39 PM Re: The Edge of Seventeen: Steven Matz

I'm on Team Ray Ramirez with this guy, at least until he can get through a season either unhurt or demonstrates the ability to get by when he's not perfect. 11-8, 3.33, 23 starts, 150 innings is my guess.

Lefty Specialist Mar 11 2017 11:30 PM Re: The Edge of Seventeen: Steven Matz

It's always something with Matz. Until he actually does it, I'll never predict him for a full season. 8-5, 3.25, 18 starts. Good when he's on the field but he won't be on it enough. Prove me wrong, Steven.

seawolf17 Mar 13 2017 10:35 PM Re: The Edge of Seventeen: Steven Matz

15-9 in 33 starts, 3.88 ERA. Gets whacked around a little bit over the summer, but muscles through it.

d'Kong76 Mar 15 2017 03:32 PM Re: The Edge of Seventeen: Steven Matz

Struggles to be 100% all season but eeks out 9 wins or so...

Ceetar Mar 15 2017 03:43 PM Re: The Edge of Seventeen: Steven Matz

That's a sloppy BP write-up. Hits dog-whistle LolMets stuff. But yeah, Matz has had trouble staying healthy, and I don't have faith that he will. BUT he improved in 2016 over 2015 (though was much luckier in 2015) and if he can stay out there, good times ahead. 150IP, 8.88 K/9, 2.02 BB/9. 3.11 ERA, 3.9 fWAR. I think he'll have a great April and May before fading a little into a DL stint and when he comes back he'll still be pretty good. Will be the Mets best pitcher in the playoffs, edging Thor ever so slightly.

Ashie62 Mar 15 2017 09:05 PM Re: The Edge of Seventeen: Steven Matz

Matz is nursed to 150 innings and wins 11.

batmagadanleadoff Mar 16 2017 04:27 AM Re: The Edge of Seventeen: Steven Matz

Ceetar wrote: That's a sloppy BP write-up. Hits dog-whistle LolMets stuff. You're just annoyed that I snuck in a plug for Dan Warthen.

Ceetar Mar 16 2017 01:27 PM Re: The Edge of Seventeen: Steven Matz

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Ceetar wrote: That's a sloppy BP write-up. Hits dog-whistle LolMets stuff. You're just annoyed that I snuck in a plug for Dan Warthen. Nah i'm okay with that though I'd like to see the data on it and feel like Warthen gets plenty of credit and it's VIOLA that needs to get a little more. It's the hahaha look they let him pitch injured even though it did no more damage and when it was too much they shut him down and he's fine now like every other team.

Edgy MD Mar 16 2017 01:35 PM Re: The Edge of Seventeen: Steven Matz

I've got no problem with folks complaining about a team handling injuries if there can be some science to it. Can you demonstrate that X team is missing more games-per-man than the mean? Can you show that the same injury takes longer to diagnose with one team or another? Is this really something that falls under Ramirez's responsibility or is it guys in lab coats? Did Ramirez hire the guys in the lab coats? Is this an issue of bad development, bad preparation, bad usage, reckless play, bad diagnoses, un-necessary procedures, questionable rehab? Because I agree that Mets get hurt/fire Ramirez/lolMets sounds like terrible analysis.

Centerfield Mar 16 2017 02:00 PM Re: The Edge of Seventeen: Steven Matz

Lefty Specialist wrote: It's always something with Matz. Until he actually does it, I'll never predict him for a full season. 8-5, 3.25, 18 starts. Good when he's on the field but he won't be on it enough. Prove me wrong, Steven. This sounds right.

Benjamin Grimm Mar 17 2017 05:13 PM Re: The Edge of Seventeen: Steven Matz

28-2, 0.73 ERA. Finishes second in the Cy Young behind Syndergaard. Okay, maybe that's unrealistic. He's shown that he can be really really good when he's healthy, but I expect that even if he were to have a season in which he stayed healthy he'd still have periods of struggle. I'd be quite happy to get 22 regular season starts out of him. (And four or five more in the postseason.)