Master Index of Archived Threads
Eight is More than Enough
Chad Ochoseis Apr 18 2017 02:59 PM |
Blevins. Salas. Gilmartin. Smoker. Robles. Edgin. Montero. Reed.
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Benjamin Grimm Apr 18 2017 03:10 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
I know how you feel. This is why I would like to see a 27-man roster, although I confess that it would probably lead to a 15-man pitching staff instead of a 6-man bench.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Apr 18 2017 03:11 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
I'm certain we will, but would guess the move comes in concert with Familia's return.
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Edgy MD Apr 18 2017 03:18 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
It's not crazy, it's stone-cold truth.
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Ceetar Apr 18 2017 03:26 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
Meh, you might be better off sending Thor up there to take a hack instead of like, Ty Kelly. The marginal rest and depth of the bullpen is probably worth more than the step up to Quad-A guy/Rene Rivera from Thor
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Edgy MD Apr 18 2017 03:28 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
Well, I don't consider Brandon Nimmo to be a "Quad-A" guy. And I think the desire for marginal rest has become a self-defeating unstoppable creep.
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Ceetar Apr 18 2017 03:32 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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I wouldn't say self-defeating. Nimmo's hurt anyway, but I wouldn't think the extra AB or two a week he'd get by being the 25th guy instead of another reliever is going to prove he's not a Quad-A singles hitter.
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Fman99 Apr 18 2017 03:47 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
Yes. Too many pitchers. Not enough hitters. We want hitters, not bedshitters, I've heard said.
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Edgy MD Apr 18 2017 04:59 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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I'm not sure how Brandon Nimmo has to "prove" he's not a "Quad-A singles hitter" but Sean Gilmartin and Rafael Montero and Paul Sewald are somehow necessary enough that they don't have to prove anything. Nor do I believe that a fifth outfielder or sixth infielder is limited to one to two at-bats per week, especially if they demonstrate their increasing capability.
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soupcan Apr 18 2017 05:10 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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'We want a batter, not a broken ladder' Apparently my childhood was more G-rated than FMan's.
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Edgy MD Apr 18 2017 05:23 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
I hope we can add a thirteenth swinger!
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Benjamin Grimm Apr 18 2017 05:25 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
I recall "We want a pitcher, not a belly-itcher."
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Ceetar Apr 18 2017 05:47 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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If you want to make a case for Nimmo being say the 20th guy on the roster rather than the 25th, that's fine. I'm talking about using the worst hitter left on the bench. They're not gonna promote Nimmo with nowhere to play anyway for the sake of pinch hitters, so it'd be garbage Eric Campbell types. Sewald and Gilmartin are riding the shuttle enough that they haven't proven anything either, besides that it's easier to find a guy to throw an inning or two here and there and get outs than it is to find another worthwhile pinch hitter. The Mets had 4 PH PA from pitchers last year. How many times did they actually need the last guy on the bench versus how many times they used the last reliever over a series to help mitigate rest and such?
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Edgy MD Apr 18 2017 05:59 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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The last pitcher takes innings from better pitchers. The last hitter takes at bats from worse hitters, and plays defense for worse fielders, if used effectively.
Too many. And the last reliever isn't mitigating rest ("mitigating rest?"), he's allowing the manager to remove good pitchers who should be pitching. The Mets average 5.48 innings per start among their starting pitchers, despite a 3.52 ERA. That should be a scandal. More weaker pitchers equals fewer innings by better pitchers.
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Ceetar Apr 18 2017 06:04 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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Quantitatively untrue. Third time through the order penalty is real. Wins are a dumb stat, baseball is moving away from 'the starter is the guy that throws most/all of the game' mentality. This is a GOOD sign, and they've been pushing their best relievers, perhaps too hard. Familia back will help that though, and if they could find one other guy to step up, then they're really spreading those innings around better and keeping everyone fresh and in the best position to win.
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Edgy MD Apr 18 2017 06:13 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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There's nothing I said that's untrue. If you'd somehow like to demonstrate—quantitatively or otherwise—what I've written that is untrue, please be my guest.
Then cite it.
Maybe you share that with somebody who argues otherwise. I haven't invoked the pitcher-wins stat at all.
I noticed. And they're not doing it effectively
You're going to have to demonstrate for me how more high-leverage Montero and less high-leverage Syndergaard has been a good thing. I'm not seeing it.
This isn't controversial.
Every team, everywhere, every year is looking for one more guy to step up. The teams with two effective relievers are desperately searching for a third. The team with five effective relievers are desperately searching for a sixth, or a seventh. And that's the unending creeping effect. And if there are 27-man rosters, it won't end, but perpetuate.
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Ceetar Apr 18 2017 06:33 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
in 2016 for example, Mets starter 3rd time through the order allowed a .736 OPS. Mets relievers first time through the order allowed a .671 OPS
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Edgy MD Apr 18 2017 07:00 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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I don't know what rank either pitcher is. But if Syndergaard is anything like that good, I disagree that he should be averaging 6 1/3 innings every five games, with a 0.95 ERA. I wish this wasn't even controversial. And of course, limiting him to mostly the front half of games necessarily places him in fewer high-leverage situations.
And I'm arguing that he hasn't been generally mop-up, and this is the problem. Sixteen of 37 of the batters Montero has faced have been in high-leverage situations, and six have been in medium leverage situations.
Well sure. Again, this is uncontroversial, with me, anyhow, but when you pull your outstanding starters after six, and the other team is doing the same, you are tending to have multiple high-leverage spots, one after the other, eventually with increasingly less effective pitchers to do it in.
You're changing the argument here. I in no way disagree about the best pitcher being brought in earlier if the game is on the line. I think he should be kept in, too.
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Edgy MD Apr 18 2017 07:06 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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BillJamesOnline has Syndergaard at 16th, deGrom at 27th, Harvey at 123rd, Gsellman at 180th, and Wheeler not currently ranked.
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Edgy MD Apr 18 2017 07:10 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
Steven Matz, for what it's worth, is ranked 159th and Seth Lugo 185th (of 187 ranked starters).
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Ceetar Apr 18 2017 07:17 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
You're arguing the Mets should let their starters pitch to Trout in the 7th instead of say Reed. That there are multiple high leverage situations throughout the game is not changing based on pitcher use. And they're not necessarily worse pitchers down the line either, the idea here is that you need to have multiple good, maybe equally good, pitchers in the pen because of this. You can play matchups and platoon splits to maximize effectiveness too. This is all to say that sure, have more relievers, because that part of the game is way more crucial than a mildly more effective third pinch hitter.
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Edgy MD Apr 18 2017 07:25 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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Not particularly, no. But it's pretty telling that you decided to rewrite my argument.
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Ceetar Apr 18 2017 07:31 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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or it's telling about the coherency of your argument. In any event, put the DH in and we'll need even less pinch hitters and can settle on 8+ relievers.
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cooby Apr 18 2017 07:39 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
Can I break in here?
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batmagadanleadoff Apr 18 2017 07:51 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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I beg you, please do.
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batmagadanleadoff Apr 18 2017 07:58 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
[youtube:a9qmpqjg]NtBZXaHZv3o[/youtube:a9qmpqjg]
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Edgy MD Apr 18 2017 07:59 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
Cooby, break in any time.
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Edgy MD Apr 18 2017 08:01 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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I may be remarkably boring, but I'm not unclear. But if you don't understand anything, please ask for further clarification. Please don't make stuff up.
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Ceetar Apr 18 2017 08:11 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
You've claimed it's a scandal that the Mets aren't pitching their starters deep into games, but say you don't want them pitching to the best guy in the 7th. But you also don't want the Mets to stock their bullpen full at the expense of a bench guy, so you could see how it's unclear.
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Benjamin Grimm Apr 18 2017 08:25 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
If it's the seventh inning, and the Mets are up by 4, and Noah Syndergaard has thrown 95 pitches, and Bryce Harper is up with nobody on base, then yes, I'd let Syndergaard pitch to him.
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batmagadanleadoff Apr 18 2017 08:36 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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The Save Ruined Relief Pitching. The Goose Egg Can Fix It.
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Edgy MD Apr 18 2017 08:41 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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Yes I did.
No, I didn't.
Once you start making stuff up that I didn't write, yes, I see how the clarity fails. Please don't do that. It's better for you, for me, and society.
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Benjamin Grimm Apr 18 2017 08:42 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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This has been my beef for years now. If I'm ever a GM in position to hire a manager, one of the things I'll look for is a guy with the guts to challenge this orthodoxy.
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Edgy MD Apr 18 2017 08:45 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
Me three.
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Edgy MD Apr 19 2017 02:40 AM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
Rafael Montero, in a high-leverage situation.
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LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 19 2017 04:34 AM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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Maddon. Francona. Ausmus. God help me, Girardi. There are a few.
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Centerfield Apr 19 2017 01:44 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
Can I take a crack at summarizing the arguments?
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Ceetar Apr 19 2017 01:50 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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I'd rather burn out relievers who are often flighty year to year anyway and maintain health or energy for starters or whatever. Play matchups, certainly. Make exceptions for Thor, best pitchers. But bullpens need to be deeper in general. They're not a ranking of the best to worst pitchers, and relievers are no longer just rejected starters. They might not actually be worse than the starter and actually they're better on average, as per opposing OPS and such. Seasons are made on the bullpen. Championships are won. The extra pinch hitter? not so much.
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Benjamin Grimm Apr 19 2017 01:55 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
The way I look at it, if you use five pitchers in a game instead of two, you have three more guys who might potentially be having a bad day. And that one bad inning that you get from that pitcher could cost you the game. If a pitcher is doing well, and hasn't thrown too many pitches, keep him in. Ride him as long as you can.
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Centerfield Apr 19 2017 01:57 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
Yes, but going to the same relievers every night, relatively early, leads to them getting gassed. And then it has immediate effects.
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seawolf17 Apr 19 2017 02:01 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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Ah, the good old days, when we had both.
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Edgy MD Apr 19 2017 02:14 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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I don't think it's particularly taxing to have a starter pitch into the seventh if he's doing well. The eighth? It's been known to happen. Does it increase the risk of injury. Sure. It's generally a marginal, but it's a real one and pitches accumulate. But eventually you have to accept that prevention that causes you to regularly lose winnable games is not worth it. And in the end, having good relievers pitch four or five days a week instead of two or three is also taxing and increases injury risk too. Maybe moreso. Less recovery time and whatnot. And lesser pitchers end up in high-leverage situations. They just do. Over and over. Last night and the night before and the night before that.
It seems a simple principle. If you lift someone who is succeeding, you continually place another priority ahead of succeeding. Eventually, and with increasingly regularity, you will fail.
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Ceetar Apr 19 2017 02:16 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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oh, definitely, the gassing is a concern, but it strengthens my point I think. You need MORE relievers you can trust. And maybe after a long game is when you push the starter more, though granted it's early and April and maybe not as wise as doing that in June. Maybe it's not that as one-sided as I think, but you gotta have quality platoon guys for that and it's rare too. But our lineup is lefty-heavy perhaps. we've got one of each on the bench for the OF and a righty (or switch if it's Reyes on the bench) IFer. Plus Rene Rivera I guess. I don't think we're losing the matchup battle that much. I mean, we're mostly talking about TJ Rivera here, and he's a rightly and so is Lagares and Flores so it's not like that'd be resolved if he was here instead of the worst Sewall/Gilmartin/Montero.
Maybe, but there's really no good way to know if the 'next' inning from the pitcher you keep in is going to be the bad one over a fresh one from a reliever. And the data suggests a reliever first time through the order is better than a starter the third time through. (and relievers a second time are terrible) Sure, it's a balancing act.
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Frayed Knot Apr 19 2017 02:43 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
When Duda got on as the winning run in bottom 9 last night w/one out there was essentially no one to PR for him -- Lagares & Granderson had already been used, leaving just Wilmer and R. Rivera.
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Ceetar Apr 19 2017 02:50 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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Modern rosters rarely have room for a speed guy. Duda's not _that_ slow either, but you could always use deGrom. I don't think I'd try to steal with just 1 out, but sure, it's another small tick in favor of 5 men on the bench. A very small tick though, because you've just removed probably your second best hitter in favor of a Quad-A type guy if they _don't_ score there.
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Frayed Knot Apr 19 2017 03:02 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
The point is that options are removed when benches get smaller, options which go beyond just platoon-type issues of whether X should pinch-hit for Y
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seawolf17 Apr 19 2017 04:01 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
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I get your point, but when deGrom pulls a hammy sliding into second, Terry Collins gets run out of town on a rail. To FK's point, it definitely feels like there's pressure there to carry extra bullpen specialists, when the way the game is played - I think - should dictate a slightly different balance. Not that you're going to put Thor in to strike out a guy in a key spot on his throw day, but I suppose technically, you could. There have been managers who have tried to buck the trend. Grady Little and the Red Sox tried it in 2003: http://www.espn.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1489225 They had ten different pitchers earn a save that season, lead by Byung-Hyun Kim, who they acquired two months into the season and he saved 16 games. They also won 95 games that year, but a lot of that was their offense, which was incredible.
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Edgy MD Apr 19 2017 04:08 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
I agree. Let's focus on building an incredible offense.
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Ceetar Apr 19 2017 04:29 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
The crux of it all though, if you can't muster someone better than Montero has pitched, might as well be TJ Rivera.
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Ashie62 Apr 19 2017 04:34 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
The paradigm of pitch counts and strict role specialization in the bullpen is likely here to stay.
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Edgy MD Apr 19 2017 04:38 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
Oh, I don't think anything is here to stay, especially if it's shown to be demonstrably counterproductive.
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Edgy MD Apr 20 2017 07:52 PM Re: Eight is More than Enough |
If Duda is truly unavailable, and there's no transaction by gametime, the Mets go to town tonight with a ridiculously short bench of d'Arnaud, Flores, and Lagares. Go class of 13! right?
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