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Going Conforward

Edgy MD Apr 29 2017 10:54 PM

It was about this time last year that Michael Conforto peaked. Having gotten off to a hot start in April, he moved up in a few weeks from the sixth slot in the batting order to the the third. He maintained a hot pace until the end of April, and then started rolling down the back end of the hill—and the lineup—come May. Ideally, when the Mets get their players back, he still looks like a potential #3 hitter in a good lineup, and Céspedes hitting fourth between him and Bruce is an appealing thought. Do you try and ease him back into that slot in the lineup, or do you just thank goodness that he's found himself and leave him right where he is?

Ashie62 Apr 29 2017 11:06 PM Re: Going Conforward

Your point is interesting. At the seeming beginning of an era where your leadoff guy can rake and not just run, I would let Conforto continue as our first hitter. It can always be adjusted. Heck, by the time Ces gets back we will have a decent sample size on Mikey. LGM!

Frayed Knot Apr 29 2017 11:54 PM Re: Going Conforward

On April 30th last year, Conforto, hitting out of the 3rd slot, had racked up a .365/.442/.676 slash line [1118 OPS] and I pronounced him to be not just good but 'special' The next day he faced Madison Bumgarner, struck out three times, and went into a tail spin resulting in a demotion to AAA and a .161/.234/.313 line [547] from May thru the end of August (214 PA), a funk that he only sort of started to come out of by September and even then only as a part-timer. His K-rate spiked from some 17% in April to nearly double that. That's not rolling down hill, that's falling off a cliff. But, as the financial people all tell you, past performance is no guarantee of future results so at this point the only way he should come out of the starting lineup is if someone or some thing forces him out and he has it totally in his power to make sure that doesn't happen. As for where he hits in the lineup, my only answer is 'often' and don't particularly care which exact slot. With no one else remotely suited to the leadoff spot at the moment, Reyes's mini-surge notwithstanding, I'd just as soon leave him there for now. Granderson is the obvious choice to start seeing more bench time once Duda and Cespedes come back.

Edgy MD May 04 2017 02:39 AM Re: Going Conforward

Now that Reyes is hitting consistently, do you still keep Conforto stapled in that leadoff spot?

John Cougar Lunchbucket May 04 2017 02:42 AM Re: Going Conforward

I move Neil Walker to 8th and solve more problems than interfering with hot guys would

Frayed Knot May 04 2017 02:46 AM Re: Going Conforward

Edgy MD wrote: Now that Reyes is hitting consistently, do you still keep Conforto stapled in that leadoff spot? As I said before, I'm not all that wrapped up with where Conforto hits as long as he gets to do so every day unless and until he completely falls on his face. But given a choice, I think Reyes's sudden streak here is still probably a bit too short to go mucking things around and even 'hot' his OBP will probably fall short of Conforto's anyway.

Edgy MD May 04 2017 03:05 AM Re: Going Conforward

Yes, you've made yourself clear.

Centerfield May 04 2017 01:20 PM Re: Going Conforward

Michael Conforto in May 2016 BA: .169 OBP: .242 SLG: .349 OPS: 591 2017 BA: .500 OBP: .563 SLG.857 OPS: 1.420

Edgy MD May 14 2017 07:34 PM Re: Going Conforward

I think we may have a new #3 hitter.

Frayed Knot May 14 2017 07:52 PM Re: Going Conforward

Conforto: 10 HRs in 119 PAs Aaron Judge: 14 in 132 Both totals include a HR from today's in-progress games. But one is the toast of baseball with talk about challenging records while the other is going virtually unmentioned ... Just sayin'

Centerfield May 14 2017 08:21 PM Re: Going Conforward

One of them plays in a stadium built for full grown adults.

batmagadanleadoff May 14 2017 09:15 PM Re: Going Conforward

Frayed Knot wrote: Conforto: 10 HRs in 119 PAs Aaron Judge: 14 in 132 Both totals include a HR from today's in-progress games. But one is the toast of baseball with talk about challenging records while the other is going virtually unmentioned ... Just sayin' I know what you mean. As of a couple of weeks ago, Conforto's been appearing on the batting leaderboards, without any accompanying national attention. He's been one of the league's best hitters this season.

Edgy MD May 14 2017 09:38 PM Re: Going Conforward

Tenth in batting average, 11th in OBP, fifth in slugging, 12th in homers, 18th in RBI. Fifth in OPS. Only 20th, however, in WAR.

batmagadanleadoff May 14 2017 09:45 PM Re: Going Conforward

Edgy MD wrote: Tenth in batting average, 11th in OBP, fifth in slugging, 12th in homers, 18th in RBI. Fifth in OPS. Only 20th, however, in WAR. Yeah, rate-wise, he's hitting like an all-star. But he hasn't been playing as regularly as the true everyday players. So his counting stats aren't among the very best.

Nymr83 May 15 2017 02:50 AM Re: Going Conforward

Frayed Knot wrote: Conforto: 10 HRs in 119 PAs Aaron Judge: 14 in 132 Both totals include a HR from today's in-progress games. But one is the toast of baseball with talk about challenging records while the other is going virtually unmentioned ... Just sayin' One plays for a team that is hurdling towards being sellers at the deadline and the other plays for a team with the best run differential in baseball. it also doesn't help that the Mets have so many other stories - injuries, suspensions - to write and the papers will almost always choose to go negative when given the choice.

Chad Ochoseis May 15 2017 03:00 AM Re: Going Conforward

12 AB against lefties all season. Not his fault; the Mets just haven't seen many lefties lately. But I'm holding off on making Conforto my next mancrush until he demonstrates that he will no longer wilt against good left-handed pitching.

Frayed Knot May 15 2017 03:04 AM Re: Going Conforward

One plays for a team that is hurdling towards being sellers at the deadline and the other plays for a team with the best run differential in baseball. it also doesn't help that the Mets have so many other stories - injuries, suspensions - to write and the papers will almost always choose to go negative when given the choice. Sure, that's part of it - although four days ago the Mets were a .500 team on a winning streak (so don't start your fire sale quite yet) And part of the Judge-mania was from earlier when his HR-rate was higher than it is now, he hadn't HR'd in 11 days prior to this afternoon. But also there's an element of Yanqui-stroking to this all -- is he the next Jeter?!!?!?!! -- combined with the ridiculous notion of 'projecting' season HR totals two weeks into the season ... he's on pace to hit 126, do ya think he'll do it !?!?!?!! And then there's the fascination these highlight geeks have with their new video game toys of "exit velocity" and distance guesstimates, as if those HRs are worth more than a regular one.

Nymr83 May 15 2017 05:25 AM Re: Going Conforward

Frayed Knot wrote: One plays for a team that is hurdling towards being sellers at the deadline and the other plays for a team with the best run differential in baseball. it also doesn't help that the Mets have so many other stories - injuries, suspensions - to write and the papers will almost always choose to go negative when given the choice. Sure, that's part of it - although four days ago the Mets were a .500 team on a winning streak (so don't start your fire sale quite yet) And part of the Judge-mania was from earlier when his HR-rate was higher than it is now, he hadn't HR'd in 11 days prior to this afternoon. But also there's an element of Yanqui-stroking to this all -- is he the next Jeter?!!?!?!! -- combined with the ridiculous notion of 'projecting' season HR totals two weeks into the season ... he's on pace to hit 126, do ya think he'll do it !?!?!?!! And then there's the fascination these highlight geeks have with their new video game toys of "exit velocity" and distance guesstimates, as if those HRs are worth more than a regular one. Certainly there is always going to be the media sucking some good old yankee cock. the only way to get rid of that is to win a few world series while the Yankees suck then it'll be "the Mets are so great and the Yankees suck and are threatening to move to New Jersey again" every homerun counts the same, but i'm pretty sure i've read that average distance is somewhat predictive of future homerun rate - which makes intuitive sense as the guy hitting it 380 feet routinely is clearing more fences in more parks and in more weather conditions than the guy hitting it 340. not a defense of all the love for Judge as the sample size is too small even if he is smashing them, but i dont think those things you mention are just "video game toys"

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr May 15 2017 02:41 PM Re: Going Conforward

This. The hype around Judge is less "next Jeter," and more "next Stanton." Which is actually somewhat reasonable, if you watch him.

Frayed Knot May 15 2017 04:20 PM Re: Going Conforward

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: The hype around Judge is less "next Jeter," and more "next Stanton." Which is actually somewhat reasonable, if you watch him. Which I'd agree with if I hadn't heard the phrase "next Jeter" about 100 times already. Also, as if on cue, Judge is on the cover of this week's SI - which is mainly a surprise in that I didn't know if SI still covered baseball. And my point in bringing up this comparison wasn't to tear down Judge. He was a high draft pick, a decently regarded prospect, is off to a great start this season and looks like he could have a nice career in front of him - at least he will as long as one treats this 138 PA run as real and the 98 he had last year where he struck out in 50% of his ABs as the outlier rather than the other way around. I just happened to notice yesterday that Conforto, with a fraction of the notice, has nearly matched Judge's start and that's after being mostly a bench player for the first three weeks of the season.

Edgy MD May 16 2017 01:38 AM Re: Going Conforward

Conforto back in the leadoff tonight.

41Forever May 16 2017 01:52 AM Re: Going Conforward

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: This. The hype around Judge is less "next Jeter," and more "next Stanton." Which is actually somewhat reasonable, if you watch him. More likely, the next Kevin Maas!

Edgy MD May 24 2017 08:29 PM Re: Going Conforward

With Bruce out of the lineup tonight, Terry shifts Neil Walker, over Conforto, to the third slot in the batting order. It seems clear that, after last season, Terry fears that moving his big hitter in the lineup to the place where big hitters hit would only rock the boat of the young slugger's psyche. The problem is that, in fearing to move him even for one night, Terry psychologically reinforces the idea that his productivity is rooted to his batting order position. It's about mindset. How about batting Conforto third once this week, twice the next week, etc.? Let him slowly get used to the oxygen level in the three hole.

Vic Sage May 25 2017 04:40 PM Re: Going Conforward

Eventually, they'll bring up Rosario (mid-June?) and he'll lead off, with Conforto batting 3rd. so they better start getting Confy comfy there.

Ceetar May 25 2017 06:00 PM Re: Going Conforward

Conforto and Judge's numbers are very very similar. Fangraphs seems to like Judge's defense better, but it's all extremely small sample and meaningless. And like, is it even possible to have a bad zone rating in RF at Yankee Stadium?

Chad Ochoseis May 25 2017 08:57 PM Re: Going Conforward

Vic Sage wrote: Eventually, they'll bring up Rosario (mid-June?) and he'll lead off, with Conforto batting 3rd. so they better start getting Confy comfy there. Even if they do bring up Rosario, I doubt he'll see a spot higher than sixth in the lineup before 2018.

Rockin' Doc May 26 2017 01:03 AM Re: Going Conforward

Chad Ochoseis wrote: Vic Sage wrote: Eventually, they'll bring up Rosario (mid-June?) and he'll lead off, with Conforto batting 3rd. so they better start getting Confy comfy there. Even if they do bring up Rosario, I doubt he'll see a spot higher than sixth in the lineup before 2018. My first thought as well. The Mets (Collins) seem too conservative with call ups to put them high pressure or high leverage situations. When Rosario is finally called up, I expect they will ease him into the batting order (6th or 7th in the order).

batmagadanleadoff May 26 2017 05:31 AM Re: Going Conforward

Meanwhile, pound for pound, Conforto, right now, is about as effective a hitter as there is in all of baseball. Check out that RC/27 column. [fimg=555:3i2c4lhv]https://c1.staticflickr.com/5/4270/34735491552_b90c213c61_b.jpg[/fimg:3i2c4lhv]

Nymr83 May 26 2017 11:53 AM Re: Going Conforward

Vic Sage wrote: Eventually, they'll bring up Rosario (mid-June?) and he'll lead off, with Conforto batting 3rd. so they better start getting Confy comfy there. or he can hit 2nd, where he has hit before and where the studies show your best hitter belongs anyway?

batmagadanleadoff Jan 13 2018 12:05 AM Re: Going Conforward

Nymr83 wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: Sure, that's part of it - although four days ago the Mets were a .500 team on a winning streak (so don't start your fire sale quite yet) And part of the Judge-mania was from earlier when his HR-rate was higher than it is now, he hadn't HR'd in 11 days prior to this afternoon. But also there's an element of Yanqui-stroking to this all -- is he the next Jeter?!!?!?!! -- combined with the ridiculous notion of 'projecting' season HR totals two weeks into the season ... he's on pace to hit 126, do ya think he'll do it !?!?!?!! And then there's the fascination these highlight geeks have with their new video game toys of "exit velocity" and distance guesstimates, as if those HRs are worth more than a regular one. Certainly there is always going to be the media sucking some good old yankee cock. the only way to get rid of that is to win a few world series while the Yankees suck then it'll be "the Mets are so great and the Yankees suck and are threatening to move to New Jersey again" Do you really believe that the media will ever stop sucking "good old yankee cock" (your words, not mine) once the Mets win a few World Series? First of all, it already took the Mets their entire almost 60 year existence just to win a few World Series, and by a few, I mean two. I mean, by the time the Mets win another two World Series, the Yankees will probably have won another 25 and we'll all be dead by then anyways. And besides, in that time, that's a lot of sucking of "good old yankee cock" (your words, not mine) that's destined to happen. Of course, if we're dead, we'll never know if the media ever truly stopped sucking "good old yankee cock[s]" (your words, not mine) as you suggest it will. How old is that "good old yankee cock" (your words, not mine) anyways? Any how good? How good and how old? Whitey Ford old? Because if it's Whitey Ford old, it's probably shriveled and soft. I can't believe you even think of these disgusting things. Did you ever, even for a moment, stop to think about the women and children lurking here?

cooby Jan 13 2018 04:01 AM Re: Going Conforward

Love that I can't see what he said

Zvon Jan 13 2018 05:20 AM Re: Going Conforward

This is how stupid I am. I zipped thru this thread to see if anymore "C" words were dropped. I figured with that thread title it would be ohhhhhh so tempting. BUT I CAN"T SEE HIS POSTS!!! lololol Now my PM box is full. I wonder which PMs I'm going to delete....... Honestly, not yours Bats. All were interesting, informative, or encouraging in my graphic/card/colorization work. You can be such a great guy when you want to be! WassupWidDat!??

cooby Jan 13 2018 05:28 AM Re: Going Conforward

I'm sure. Too bad he can't use his intelligence intelligently

Ashie62 Jan 14 2018 01:01 PM Re: Going Conforward

cooby wrote: Love that I can't see what he said Yes, and possible MF would agree with you.

Edgy MD Jan 17 2018 06:25 PM Re: Going Conforward

Matthew Brownstein of The Times is reporting that Sandy is hoping for May 1 with Conforto. That's serious business, probably suggesting that the Mets need to live life as if they're looking at August 1. And I think I like the Bruce deal a lot more upon reading that.

Nymr83 Jan 17 2018 06:45 PM Re: Going Conforward

Hoping for May 1st - not targeting, not planning, hoping. Good thing Bruce is back

Lefty Specialist Jan 17 2018 06:57 PM Re: Going Conforward

Nymr83 wrote: Hoping for May 1st - not targeting, not planning, hoping. Good thing Bruce is back Yeah, and they better not go trading Nimmo or Lagares so quick either. I'm betting Mikey will be on limited duty especially if they expect him to play center field.

Ashie62 Jan 17 2018 07:03 PM Re: Going Conforward

I am very cautiously optimistic on Conforto. Nimmo & Lagares, continue at your posts. I'd be cool to see Lagares hit 48 hrs batting 8th

Ceetar Jan 17 2018 08:34 PM Re: Going Conforward

Edgy MD wrote: Matthew Brownstein of The Times is reporting that Sandy is hoping for May 1 with Conforto. That's serious business, probably suggesting that the Mets need to live life as if they're looking at August 1. And I think I like the Bruce deal a lot more upon reading that. actually this is literally exactly the same place we were yesterday, as per Alderson. That was always the timetable, always the date. There have been no updates and won't be until roughly when camp opens. But perhaps it does make the Bruce signing more palatable.