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The Shortstop Question

Frayed Knot May 31 2017 12:59 PM

The missed pop-up yesterday -- which was also Cabrera's second error in two games leading to 3 unearned runs and his 7th across 33 games -- not surprisingly brings out the 'Don't just stand there, do something!!' crowd. Kristie Ackert in the NYDN argues that this should open the door for more Wilmer with increased days off for Asdrubal and more Reyes at SS. Terry has already announced that WF is starting both today and Thursday (didn't say specifically where) so we shouldn't read anything into it when the lineup in announced this afternoon. Kernan in the Post, meanwhile, plays the 'Must bring up Rosario' card noting that there's no way he'd make seven errors in 33 games unless he turns out to be the type to melt under the glare of the ML sun, which is a nice scenario except that Rosario has made nine in 50 minor league games so it's distinctly possible he could make seven or so fumbleroonies in his first ML month whether they're pressure caused or not. A recent report said that the Mets are waiting for Rosario's plate discipline to catch up to the rest of his skills (13 walks this season in 206 ABs - you'd like to see closer to 10%) before calling him up. I don't think the 'Super 2' question is a big deal although it's a (sort of) deadline that should pass in the next 2-3 weeks so if they are thinking about a call-up soon it would make sense to hold off just a bit longer now. Mainly I suspect it's the thinking of them wanting a player like him to play regularly when he's called up which, in this case, would mean kicking two of the three of Reyes, Carbrera, Flores to the curb and/or bench. If another injury pops up then it could be a different story but I'm not sure they're ready to do that just now.

Ceetar May 31 2017 01:16 PM Re: The Shortstop Question

Frayed Knot wrote: Mainly I suspect it's the thinking of them wanting a player like him to play regularly when he's called up which, in this case, would mean kicking two of the three of Reyes, Carbrera, Flores to the curb and/or bench. If another injury pops up then it could be a different story but I'm not sure they're ready to do that just now. In a few weeks the trade market might open up a little bit. I don't know if anyone actually wants any of those three, and I wouldn't be afraid to bench any of them anyway, but it's not like Rosario is A-Rod, even if people act like it. And it's funny how quick people are to be all "I'm done with you" for certain players too, even if they still have value. But on the errors, it seems like for Rosario they might be at least somewhat rangy errors, in which case he's turning hits into errors not outs into errors. Big difference. With Asdrubal? He's gotta still be nursing something right? He's made some bad throws too that weren't errors. He just seems a beat off still.

Edgy MD May 31 2017 01:25 PM Re: The Shortstop Question

He's also made two impressive plays in the hole the last couple of days. Last night he got the runner at second on a play in the hole I didn't even think he'd get to, and a few days ago, he backhanded the play, bluffed a throw to first and then caught the runner rounding second. Columnists calling for heads the day after a dramatic error is practically as old as errors themselves. But they happen—frequently enough that there is a reserved place in the line score for them. The Mets' decision on when they should call up Rosario needs to be made independently of what happens in any single game. Of course it should.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr May 31 2017 01:51 PM Re: The Shortstop Question

Well, yes. But they should call up Rosario sooner rather than later.

Benjamin Grimm May 31 2017 02:19 PM Re: The Shortstop Question

I'm on "Team Later". Unless it looks like he might legitimately be the difference between making and missing the playoffs in 2017, I'd rather wait until 2018 to promote him. If they wait until shortly after 2018 begins, the Mets will have control of Rosario through the 2024 season. I know that nobody cares about 2024 right now, but we will some day. (And I'd estimate that that day will come in late 2023.) I don't see him as an impact player for this year. So let's wait.

Edgy MD May 31 2017 02:33 PM Re: The Shortstop Question

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Well, yes. But they should call up Rosario sooner rather than later. That's a question I confess to be agnostic on. Reyes was called up before he learned strike zone recognition, and it's still an issue (his dramatic walk last night notwithstanding). Whether that can be helped with more seasoning, I do not know, but I do know that, at 21 1/2+, Rosario's certainly older than Reyes was, and that Kernan's column is off-base with the title "End the Cabrera Misery." I didn't know there was a "Team Later." Do you get cool tee-shirts?

Benjamin Grimm May 31 2017 03:03 PM Re: The Shortstop Question

Edgy MD wrote: I didn't know there was a "Team Later." Do you get cool tee-shirts? Yes, but they're back-ordered.

Ceetar May 31 2017 03:07 PM Re: The Shortstop Question

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I'm on "Team Later". Unless it looks like he might legitimately be the difference between making and missing the playoffs in 2017, I'd rather wait until 2018 to promote him. If they wait until shortly after 2018 begins, the Mets will have control of Rosario through the 2024 season. I know that nobody cares about 2024 right now, but we will some day. (And I'd estimate that that day will come in late 2023.) I don't see him as an impact player for this year. So let's wait. Might as well just shut him down and send him home then. Pick it up again next year.

Frayed Knot May 31 2017 03:10 PM Re: The Shortstop Question

There's a school of thought that the Braves rushing Jeff Francoeur (who just recently filed his retirement papers, btw) was a factor in his inability to ever learn strike zone judgment. Promoted at age 21 with about 1/2 a season of AA under his belt, he had a respectable .268 BA and already 200 XBHs in the majors by mid-way through his age 25 season (and was a plus defender) when Atlanta decided to bail on him because his lack of strike zone knowledge kept a ceiling on his OBA Raw athleticism allows you succeed for a while but eventually that catches up with you and Frenchy's walk-rate never climbed above a level of about 1/2 to maybe 2/3 of where you'd like to see it, or about at the level where Rosario's is now. Not saying that that alone makes the two equivalent cases, but Bobby V used to talk about wanting to see a player 'put his current level behind him' before moving on. Some extra time certainly couldn't hurt Amed particularly at a time when the Mets have three, and maybe 3-1/2 (Reyes, Flores, Cabrera, TJR) players already sharing two positions.

Edgy MD May 31 2017 03:24 PM Re: The Shortstop Question

I speak as a non-trade advocate, but when Sandy is asked if it's time to call up Rosario, the obvious retort to his "Can he pitch?" answer is "No, but maybe the guy or guys you get when you trade one or more of the players in Rosario's way can."

batmagadanleadoff May 31 2017 06:54 PM Re: The Shortstop Question

Ceetar wrote: But on the errors, it seems like for Rosario they might be at least somewhat rangy errors, in which case he's turning hits into errors not outs into errors. Big difference. If baseball's official scorers were perfectly efficient, this category that you describe as "turning hits into errors" wouldn't exist because a fielder shouldn't be charged with an error on a batted ball that was destined to be a hit. (Unless the fielder bumbles the play to such a degree that either the batter or a baserunner takes an extra base that the hit, alone, wouldn't have yielded). So are you suggesting that some of Rosario's errors are undeserved? And how would you even know this?

Ceetar May 31 2017 07:31 PM Re: The Shortstop Question

Errors are garbage, that's why we're developing advanced fielding metrics, even if they're faulty too. Rosario has a 4.08 RF/9 in the minors, where there isn't a lot of data. Asdrubal Cabrera has a RF/9 of 3.72. 4.08 is higher than all the other PCL SS I checked. Obviously this could simply mean that Vegas pitchers let up more grounders than other teams. or the Majors. It's not a great comparison, but it's all we have. Scouting reports are also positive on his range/defense. So if he's covering 50 feet, and Cabrera is covering 45, any balls hit in those 5 feet that he gets to and flubs are hits turned into errors. You can trade too. Maybe he kicks a ball at his feet but makes two more plays in those +5 feet that Cabrera wouldn't have and now the Mets have more outs with Amed than Asdrubal even though Asdrubal didn't technically make an error. In simple terms, of every 100 balls hit between the range of the 2B and 3B, Rosario turns more of them into outs.

HahnSolo May 31 2017 07:37 PM Re: The Shortstop Question

You are speculating that the balls he is reaching due to better range and then flubbing are turning hits into errors. Batmags--I think--is saying hold on, a fair official scorer would still classify those as hits and not errors. I get the argument that he will create more outs based on the numbers presented, but I don't think you can just assume that all his errors are due to the fact that he has better range and gets to more batted balls.

Ceetar May 31 2017 07:48 PM Re: The Shortstop Question

HahnSolo wrote: You are speculating that the balls he is reaching due to better range and then flubbing are turning hits into errors. Batmags--I think--is saying hold on, a fair official scorer would still classify those as hits and not errors. I get the argument that he will create more outs based on the numbers presented, but I don't think you can just assume that all his errors are due to the fact that he has better range and gets to more batted balls. We all know official scorers do not do that. If you don't touch it it's not an error. We need to assume Rosario has plus range, but it's based on a lot of scouting. We KNOW based on stats that Cabrera has poor to average range, and it's not an assumption that more outs are better, even if it comes with more errors.

Ashie62 May 31 2017 11:07 PM Re: The Shortstop Question

I'm on Team Later. Start fresh in 2018.

Frayed Knot May 31 2017 11:31 PM Re: The Shortstop Question

I don't think this needs to be a binary choice of either now or not until next year, only that a single play shouldn't be dictating such things. And while I agree that the number of errors by itself is a poor choice of metrics, that was what Kernan used to advocate for Amed in the fist place. My guess is that we'll see Rosario before this season it out, specifically when to be determined by a whole bunch of factors.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jun 01 2017 01:09 AM Re: The Shortstop Question

I think Cabrera looks old, fat and slow this year. If not Rosario then maybe some other guy.

Frayed Knot Jun 01 2017 02:32 AM Re: The Shortstop Question

Well if they go for a full-time replacement SS then it's going to be Rosario, there's no doubt about that. Neither Reyes nor Flores are the future at that position and Reynolds and/or Cecchini would be temporary placeholders at best. But I think they're a while from putting Cabrera out to pasture.

MFS62 Jun 01 2017 02:40 AM Re: The Shortstop Question

Frayed Knot wrote: Well if they go for a full-time replacement SS then it's going to be Rosario, there's no doubt about that. Neither Reyes nor Flores are the future at that position and Reynolds and/or Cecchini would be temporary placeholders at best. But I think they're a while from putting Cabrera out to pasture. IIRC, Cabrera has another year to go on his contract, and I think he'll probably be here to tutor Rosario for a while. He might move to second when Walker, on the last year of his contract, leaves. Later

Frayed Knot Jun 01 2017 02:50 AM Re: The Shortstop Question

The club has an option on Cabrera: $8.5 mil for 2018 or $2 mil buyout If/when Rosario comes up it's almost certainly because they're handing over the job to him and they're not going to want to pay $8.5 mil to a mentor/backup. And from Cabrera's view, he's not going to turn 32 until November and so is likely to want to be someplace where he can at least compete for a full time job and he knows it's not going to be in Queens for the same reason Bartolo knew he wasn't going to get regular starts here. The one caveat in all this would be if he's willing to no longer consider himself a SS. That would open up several possibilities.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jun 01 2017 06:11 AM Re: The Shortstop Question

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I think Cabrera looks old, fat and slow this year. If not Rosario then maybe some other guy. Honestly, he looked old, fat, and slow last year, too. He just hit better, and had surer hands. THAT'S why I'm Team Sooner. Rosario's a cheap upgrade defensively (along with being an offensive lottery ticket).