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Fun with Pythagoras

Frayed Knot Aug 02 2017 08:36 PM

Mets are currently sitting at 48-56 with 494 Runs scored and 545 Runs allowed. That record translates almost exactly (one game better) than what the so-called Pythagorean baseball formula says our record "should" be (47-57). That Runs scored figure is 6th best in the NL, 0.11 R/G above league average. But it's the Runs allowed where we all know our problem has been: 2nd worst in NL, 0.59 R/G worse than Lg avg. So where would our record be if we got anything close to the pitching we all thought we were going to get? Glad you asked. - if we had received just league average pitching (4.65 RA/G) it would cut the RA number down to 484 where PT says we'd be sitting with about a 53-51 record, 6.0 games out of the WC - with run prevention that would put us at 3rd best in the NL (4.23 RA/G) RA would reduce to 440 giving us a projected record thru 104 games of 57-47, 2.0 games behind ARZ for WC #2 - and with 2016 NYM pitching numbers (3.81 RA/G) we'd be at or about a 62-42 record 2.5 games ahead of Colorado for the 1st WC slot and 1/2 game in back of the Nats But of course we weren't counting on everyone not named deGrom sucking for most of the season while getting 5 starts out of Syndergaard and 9 innings from Familia, all while needing 15 (and counting) starts out of the likes of Montero, Milone, Pill, Wilk, and Flexen OK, so maybe that wasn't so much fun after all.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 02 2017 08:40 PM Re: Fun with Pythagoras

Yeah, not as much fun as root canal, for example.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 02 2017 10:26 PM Re: Fun with Pythagoras

Frayed Knot wrote: So where would our record be if we got anything close to the pitching we all thought we were going to get? Glad you asked. - if we had received just league average pitching (4.65 RA/G) it would cut the RA number down to 484 where PT says we'd be sitting with about a 53-51 record, 6.0 games out of the WC - with run prevention that would put us at 3rd best in the NL (4.23 RA/G) RA would reduce to 440 giving us a projected record thru 104 games of 57-47, 2.0 games behind ARZ for WC #2 - and with 2016 NYM pitching numbers (3.81 RA/G) we'd be at or about a 62-42 record 2.5 games ahead of Colorado for the 1st WC slot and 1/2 game in back of the Nats The Mets would be doing even better than you think, adjusting for the Mets' runs allowed per game as you did above. Lowering the Mets ra/g would have the effect of also lowering the league average ra/g, which would make for an even lower Mets ra/g if you want to give the Mets a league average ra/g. Also, lowering the ra/g Mets or otherwise, would mean that all the other teams scored less runs, which would translate into slightly lower wins totals cumulatively, for Mets opponents. Because, obviously, runs allowed must equal runs scored just as assets must equal liabilities plus owner's equity. This would put the Mets even closer, if only slightly, to the division and wild card leaders.

Frayed Knot Aug 08 2017 01:52 PM Re: Fun with Pythagoras

Speaking of shitty pitching and the reasons thereof: once Flexen & Montero make their starts over the next 27 hours, 'Other' will become the second leading starter on our staff, trailing only deGrom. And 'Other', as I'm defining it in this case, doesn't mean just anyone outside the usual slate of top five starters but outside of the [u:1mtig8un]top seven[/u:1mtig8un] starters that we had (or thought we had) coming into the season: iow, starters who would normally qualify as being in the 'Break Glass Only in Case of Emergency' category, somewhere in the #8-12 range. deGrom - 22 starts Other - 19: Montero (9), Pill (3), Milone (3), Flexen (3), Wilk (1) Wheeler - 17 Gsellman - 14 Harvey - 13 Matz - 11 Lugo - 10 Syndergaard - 5 And unless one or more of the injured come back and do so pretty quickly, 'Other' will soon take over the lead in 2017 starts

Frayed Knot Aug 22 2017 02:39 PM Re: Fun with Pythagoras

And now Tommy Milone is back in the mix, meaning that 'Other' will now be making 3 out of every 5 starts for at least the near future and will soon take over the team lead in starts. Current list: deGrom - 25 Other - 23 (which will be 26 by the time this current series w/ARZ is over): Montero = 11; Flexen = 5; Pill = 3; Milone = 3; Wilk = 1 Wheeler - 17 Gsellman - 16 Harvey = 13 Matz = 13 Lugo = 11 Syndergaard = 5 And the worst thing about all these injuries is that we're losing the youth of the arms and, not unrelatedly, much of their pre-FA 'control' time. Here's a list of how many starts each of our supposed Top-7 made in their NYM careers vs an estimate of how many they'd have based on starting full time (~30 starts/year) since each of their ML debuts PITCHER Act Starts Approx Max deGROM 101 106 HARVEY 95 154 WHEELER 66 131 SYNDERGAARD 59 77 MATZ 41 68 GSELLMAN 23 30 LUGO 19 40 Now of course if all seven were healthy then there's no way they could all reach the estimated max starts in the chart since two of them would be sitting/relieving/ or sitting in the minors at any one point, but you get the idea.