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Joel Sherman speculates about the coming offseason

Benjamin Grimm Aug 17 2017 07:58 PM

Finding a Mets third baseman, from status quo to flipping Matz By Joel Sherman August 17, 2017 | 3:13pm Sandy Alderson publicly acknowledged the obvious this week — that you cannot assemble a contender with hope and heart. David Wright failed to conquer his spinal stenosis enough to play regularly as a productive third baseman in 2017, and Alderson stated the Mets would not wait around for a baseball miracle in 2018. The Mets know they must add another impact bat this offseason and that third base and second base are the most obvious places to address this; and, yes, this is probably another moment to note this is the team that let go both Justin Turner and Daniel Murphy – the NL OPS leaders at third and second, respectively. For now let’s focus on third. Wright has three years and $47 million left, and insurance will continue to take care of a large swath of that if he does not play or retires. At this point, his return would only complicate matters for the Mets financially and structurally since they cannot know how long he will stay on the field and at what level. So where can they turn? 1. The simplest act would be to pick up Asdrubal Cabrera’s $8.5 million option and continue to use him, Wilmer Flores and T.J. Rivera as a stopgap (Mets third-base OPS this year has been a middle-of-the-pack .758), and then try to bulk up at second base by trading for someone such as Minnesota’s Brian Dozier. This way, if Wright does return, it is easier to sit Cabrera than a more significant addition. 2. Go stopgap but with grandiose plans. The assumption has always been the Yankees will be huge players in what is setting up as the spectacular free-agent class of 2018-19. But why couldn’t the Mets plug third base in 2018 and then try to sign Josh Donaldson or Manny Machado the following year? You think the Subway Series would be more interesting if, say, Machado were a Met and Bryce Harper, that same offseason, signed with the Yankees? 3. Go to the top of the market now. That would mean signing Mike Moustakas as a free agent. But keep in mind, coming off his age-27 season, Pablo Sandoval received five years at $95 million, so you should expect a Scott Boras client coming off a career year (35 homers, .885 OPS so far) in his age-28 season will demand a lot more. And just a word on Moustakas: He is not Sandoval, but I would worry about his body as he reaches his 30s. Plus, having spent a lot of time around the Royals in the 2014-15 postseason, I believe Lorenzo Cain or Eric Hosmer would thrive in New York. I did not get that same vibe from Moustakas. 4. Make Steven Matz available. He is the most logical piece that the Mets would at least think about moving to upgrade elsewhere. I can’t imagine they would do that for a one-year rental even if Toronto and/or Baltimore decided to shop Donaldson and/or Machado. Would you think about it to land the massive power/strikeout reality of Texas’ Joey Gallo? How about Seattle’s Kyle Seager, who is in the midst of his worst full season? How about if Tampa decided it was time to get out of the long money on Evan Longoria (signed from 2018-22 for $86 million)? 5. Pick someone from the field you like. Houston’s Marwin Gonzalez is having a career year and is a free agent after 2018. St. Louis’ Jedd Gyorko, like Gonzalez, would offer positional versatility. Those players would necessitate a good return price. The Marlins would take practically nothing back if you took on the final two years at $28.5 million on Martin Prado, but his body has begun to betray him. After Moustakas, Eduardo Nunez is probably the best free-agent third baseman, followed by Todd Frazier. Is either a big enough upgrade to pursue? The Mets could probably get Chase Headley from the Yankees, but their recent non-deals for Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda and Neil Walker suggest it might be a while until the New York teams find common ground on a trade. It's true: David Wright has, sadly, become more of a complication than anything else. I'd be surprised if Moustakas got five years at $95 million, given that teams are weary of one-dimensional sluggers, but you never know. I'm not sure I see any real distinction between options 1 and 2. They both involve "stopgap" solutions for second and third base for 2018. What do we think of Eduardo Nunez and Todd Frazier? I know nothing at all about either of them. I certainly have no problem with making Steven Matz available, but how much can you realistically expect to get for him?

Ceetar Aug 17 2017 08:02 PM Re: Joel Sherman speculates about the coming offseason

I pretty much disagree with much of it, but it's Sherman so that's not really surprising.

Edgy MD Aug 17 2017 08:03 PM Re: Joel Sherman speculates about the coming offseason

Plenty of time until November. And there's a lot more information to come in. These guys have an interest in getting ahead of themselves when they can't sap an angle from the current story.

seawolf17 Aug 17 2017 08:07 PM Re: Joel Sherman speculates about the coming offseason

Keep in mind, we'll be coming off a World Series championship. How can you trade Matz after he wins two games in the LCS and then throws a shutout in Game 3 of the WS?

d'Kong76 Aug 17 2017 08:12 PM Re: Joel Sherman speculates about the coming offseason

seawolf17 wrote: Keep in mind, we'll be coming off a World Series championship. How can you trade Matz after he wins two games in the LCS and then throws a shutout in Game 3 of the WS? Don't forget him hitting for the cycle in that second LCS game.

seawolf17 Aug 17 2017 08:14 PM Re: Joel Sherman speculates about the coming offseason

d'Kong76 wrote: seawolf17 wrote: Keep in mind, we'll be coming off a World Series championship. How can you trade Matz after he wins two games in the LCS and then throws a shutout in Game 3 of the WS? Don't forget him hitting for the cycle in that second LCS game. Yeah, but that was only because they changed the scoring from a three-base error to a triple after Bryce Harper crashed into the wall and dropped the ball. Should really have been an error.

MFS62 Aug 17 2017 08:42 PM Re: Joel Sherman speculates about the coming offseason

Joel Sherman wrote: For now let’s focus on third. Wright has three years and $47 million left, and insurance will continue to take care of a large swath of that if he does not play or retires. As Red Barber used to say "Whoa, Nelly". This is the first time I've read that the insurance would pay for some of his contract if he retires. All prior accounts of the insurance led us to believe that if he retired, he would be leaving the money on the table. If he's getting paid either way, why hasn't this been mentioned before? It seems to certainly make it easier to convince him. No? Later

Benjamin Grimm Aug 17 2017 08:56 PM Re: Joel Sherman speculates about the coming offseason

I think Sherman is wrong about that. I'm pretty sure that if he retires, the money goes away.

Frayed Knot Aug 17 2017 09:15 PM Re: Joel Sherman speculates about the coming offseason

There's a distinction between being forced to retire due to not getting medical clearance (David gets money, Mets get whatever the policy dictates) and one where Wright simply announces one day that he no longer has the desire or energy to go through the rehab work needed to get back to playing shape (David does not get the money, insurance no longer matters). Sherman here seems to be assuming the former, retiring because he [u:8jusrpft]can't[/u:8jusrpft] play, rather than the latter where he simply chooses to no longer play.

Edgy MD Aug 18 2017 02:22 AM Re: Joel Sherman speculates about the coming offseason

Sherman assumes a lot.

d'Kong76 Aug 18 2017 02:44 AM Re: Joel Sherman speculates about the coming offseason

How do people get these gigs and hold them for decades?

Frayed Knot Aug 18 2017 03:02 AM Re: Joel Sherman speculates about the coming offseason

It's dart throwing speculation folks, don't worked up over it. Since when did off-season speculation ever come close to hitting a target - particularly the type that begins three months before the off-season even begins?

Nymr83 Aug 18 2017 03:09 AM Re: Joel Sherman speculates about the coming offseason

Ceetar wrote: I pretty much disagree with much of it, but it's Sherman so that's not really surprising. as is usually the case, yeah. line by line-- #1 is irrelevant - Cabrera has a buyout making his effective price 6 million next year, i'd bring him back at that price and worry about the details later. #2 - this is the same as his #1 but with plans for next year too. i guess he had column space to fill. #3 - Moustakas would be a terrible guy to pay, look at his numbers before this year. this would be Jason Bay 2.0 #4 - Matz has a 5 ERA and i'm not convinced he is healthy. If Donaldson or Machado are available, even as 1 year rentals, I'd deal Matz in a heartbeat and try to convince those guys to stay here Cespedes-style #5 - Prado? no thanks. Gonzalez? not sure why he'd even be available. unfortunately, the threat of Wright returning to action is a really big detriment to the team. i'd be strongly encouraging him and the insurance company to all sit down and work something out that everyone can agree to - Wright gets like 95% of his money and no commitment to continue trying to rehab (but he becomes a FA and could even re-sign here with nothing to lose if he wanted to), the Mets and the insurance company split it up in a way they can both live with and realize that both come away better off than they potentially could have been.