Master Index of Archived Threads
Shopping List
Gwreck Aug 21 2017 10:26 PM |
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compe ... ee-agents/
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HahnSolo Aug 21 2017 11:42 PM Re: Shopping List |
Not blown away by anybody on that list.
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Chad Ochoseis Aug 21 2017 11:46 PM Re: Shopping List |
I was wondering what the effect on the insurance payments would be if the team moved Dabidrye into a non-playing role. My guess, having worked in large accounts insurance for a good part of my life, is that even if it technically meant that the payments would cease, the terms could be negotiated. The Mets are a prestige client, and unlike regular schlubs like you and me, prestige clients have negotiating power. And the insurance company would probably be glad to pay part of their obligation and have Wright take a FO/managerial position (or even play a symbolic game or two) rather than pay the full obligation while the Mets keep him on the 60-day indefinitely.
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Frayed Knot Aug 22 2017 03:11 AM Re: Shopping List |
Unless you guys have already decided, based on 35 or whatever ABs, that Dom Smith is a bust (and convinced Sandy of such) and needs to be traded/dumped/warehoused/tased immediately, the
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Gwreck Aug 22 2017 03:38 AM Re: Shopping List |
The Mets don't need a rebuild. They need an injection of offense. This has been the team's biggest problem for what, the last 4 years or more?
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Frayed Knot Aug 22 2017 10:31 AM Re: Shopping List |
I agree they need an injection of offense, I'm just saying that there are at least four other positions -- 2nd, 3rd, C, and at least one OF slot -- where they should look to upgrade before they get
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Edgy MD Aug 22 2017 12:22 PM Re: Shopping List |
Moustakas schmoustakas.
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Ceetar Aug 22 2017 01:17 PM Re: Shopping List |
Darvish. Darvish first priority. get Darvish. Darvish Darvish Darvish.
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Frayed Knot Aug 22 2017 01:41 PM Re: Shopping List |
Darvish: just turned 31, lotta mileage on him (full-timer in Japan starting at age 19), hasn't had a full season in MLB since 2013 (64 starts total from 2014-17) and is currently on the DL again.
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Ceetar Aug 22 2017 01:53 PM Re: Shopping List |
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He's the best option. Could trade for someone if you prefer. Get another top flight starter.
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Centerfield Aug 22 2017 02:27 PM Re: Shopping List |
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I think you are right that the Mets will not spend on a free agent first baseman. I think they, like you, are set in giving Dominic Smith a chance, no matter what. I don't agree with this strategy. I think you have to look to upgrade the offense, where ever those upgrades might be available. Sure, it would be easier to upgrade at our available positions, but good luck finding a 30 HR, 800+ OPS guy at CF or catcher. All options have to be on the table for a "win now" team. If that means Lucas Duda is the best option (cost, production, etc), then he has to be in the picture, along with everyone else. And just because you sign Duda doesn't mean you have to put Smith out to pasture. Duda might be had for a three year deal. Smith is only 22 years old and can play in the minors another season. If the right trade comes along, you take it. If not, there's no urgency. Also, if Duda doesn't work out, or gets hurt, then you plug in Smith who costs you nothing. Again, I agree with you that it need to be the first option, that seems unnecessary, but it should be an option. There's no reason a big market team should limit themselves.
I think it's obvious. If the Mets collect insurance for the Wright contract, that opens up more payroll. If they don't, this is a money drain and limits their ability to sign productive players. Are you saying that the Mets build their team the same way whether or not Wright is a drain on payroll? I don't agree with that at all.
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Ceetar Aug 22 2017 02:43 PM Re: Shopping List |
I mean, i like Duda and he's a good player, but I think you might look for someone that offers a bit more flexibility, if you that player is the best choice for adding offense, in a "Smith and Duda both mashing" scenario, like someone you could play at third, or RF, in a pinch. I'm not sure either of those guys are that, though the Mets still sorta consider Flores a potential SS so I dunno. They've very obviously been okay with bad defense.
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Vic Sage Aug 22 2017 03:13 PM Re: Shopping List Edited 3 time(s), most recently on Aug 22 2017 03:38 PM |
while i agree about adding offense, lets first acknowledge that offense wasn't what cost them this season (they're much better than league average in runs). It was the devastation to their pitching staff that did it (with nearly the worst Runs Allowed).
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Frayed Knot Aug 22 2017 03:14 PM Re: Shopping List |
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If they believe in Dom Smith then his chance is now. If they don't then get rid of him or find some temporary option. But they're not going to stow him in the minors or use him to PH 2-3 times per week while a FA who only plays the only position he plays play out their (likely to be long) contract. I've been saying this for months now concerning Duda when folks either wanted to QO him or deal him then re-sign him: he and Smith hit from the same side and are limited to only one position so this is one OR the other. The only way to possibly do both is if Lucas can somehow agree, during the first and likely last optimal FA chance he's going to get, to sign a one-year deal, and even then I'm not sure that's the route to go. I liked big Luc as much as anyone but he's a low-average slugger, vulnerable to LHP, who turns 32 this winter and already has trouble staying on the field (<500 ABs combined in 2016-17). And if it's Hosmer, the just-turned 28 y/o All-Star coming off his best season, you're probably looking at five years minimum and maybe longer. There is plenty of middle ground between 'Smith full time with no fallback', and, 'after two weeks we deem him not ready so we must go out and sign a big market FA' Meanwhile, plenty of other spots on the roster need to be filled that DON'T have 22 y/o prospects with nothing left to prove in the minors sitting in your lap.
Because it's not like whether the insurance kicks in is part of some sort of decision on their part. If he can't get back to playing condition then the status quo continues as it has since sometime in 2016 -- more money for payroll ... Yay!! (I guess) If he can rehab then they either have to pay him and use him or negotiate how much of the remainder they want to pay in order to make him go away. But the team can't simply decide to choose one of those options over the other.
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Vic Sage Aug 22 2017 03:36 PM Re: Shopping List |
regarding payroll, i think our ownership doesn't get the benefit of the doubt that they'd put any savings back into the team rather than their pocket (or to service their debts). Look at all the deals they've just made... we received NO real prospects, just payroll relief and a shitload of hard throwing right-handed RPs with minimal success in the minors to date. If we wanted actual prospects, we would've picked up some of the salary of our outgoing guys. But no, they just wanted to save the cash. And there's no indication that they'll be willing to spend next year at this year's levels.
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41Forever Aug 22 2017 03:58 PM Re: Shopping List |
I agree about Dom Smith. Doesn't seem right to stash him in Vegas as an insurance policy without seeing what he can really do. The two homers so far are encouraging.
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Gwreck Aug 22 2017 04:34 PM Re: Shopping List |
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Link at top is players who will be free agents at end of season. Who do you suggest?
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smg58 Aug 22 2017 04:45 PM Re: Shopping List |
They need one more infielder for second or third. Otherwise, I'm OK with what they have as position players. Rosario and Smith will be better for their time spent in Queens this year.
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Centerfield Aug 22 2017 04:49 PM Re: Shopping List |
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Why does it have to be now? There's nothing saying Dom Smith has to be used in 2018. It's not like he's out of options. If he's called up in 2019 he'll only be 24 years old then. Just because Lucas Duda is signed to a three year deal doesn't mean Duda can't be traded in 2019, or Smith can be traded in 2019, or one of them could get hurt. Who knows. I get that there are more obvious places to upgrade, but no option should be off the table. We once had a promising young stud catcher coming back from an injury but we traded for an All-Star catcher anyway. No, Lucas Duda is not Mike Piazza, but sometimes it makes sense to take the best option available, even if it means displacing another option.
I think the point Chad was trying to make was to see if the Mets, and David, and the insurance company can reach some sort of agreement that allows David to move into a non-playing role, where David still gets paid, but the insurance still covers part of it. That way, it absolutely is something that the Mets could choose, and most importantly, know what their obligations will be before going into the season.
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Centerfield Aug 22 2017 04:58 PM Re: Shopping List |
Meanwhile, back to the original point, as a knee-jerk reaction, I think Lorenzo Cain and Wade Davis make a lot of sense.
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Benjamin Grimm Aug 22 2017 05:30 PM Re: Shopping List |
What if they were eating crackers?
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Chad Ochoseis Aug 22 2017 07:14 PM Re: Shopping List |
CF got my point right about the insurance on DWright. It's not a binary situation where he either rehabs completely or doesn't. There's a good chance he rehabs to the point where he can be a .700 OPSing backup 1B. I'd want to know whether we'd have to bring him back and eat the contract in that situation, or if there are alternatives. To Vic's point that the Wilpons would use the money to buy a jackalope ranch in Mauritania or something, it's possible, but a separate issue. I'd like the Mets to preserve the resources they have; rich and stupid is at least marginally better than poor and stupid.
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Ashie62 Aug 22 2017 07:19 PM Re: Shopping List |
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Spot on. I recall Sandy saying the went a little over payroll this year and the fire sale was a way of giving it back to the owner. My guess is the Mets might be painfull frugal this off season.
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Ceetar Aug 22 2017 07:34 PM Re: Shopping List |
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Actually, the opposite. It suggest that the Wilpons will again be willing to go over payroll for the right gamble/players. While I'd love for them to take the savings from this year and apply it directly to next year, there is some consistent business logic in making a balance sheet add up, and trying not to spend more than expected revenue. I don't love it, but they have been burned before too.. Also there's no indication that the Mets could've gotten better prospects by paying the salaries of any of these guys. And it's clearly not a "gimme whatever" trade as they very specifically targeted a certain type of player. Players with life. perhaps players who if they perfected a slider, something they seem to be able to do in NY, would be able to contribute.
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Nymr83 Aug 22 2017 11:30 PM Re: Shopping List |
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Jason Bayoustakas? whoever pays him is going to wayyyy overpay and regret it before 2018 even ends.
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Edgy MD Aug 22 2017 11:34 PM Re: Shopping List |
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Frayed Knot Aug 23 2017 12:02 AM Re: Shopping List |
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Which supposes that FA 1st basemen (and their agents) are going to choose the Mets knowing the situation (and Duda most of all). That's why they get N-T clauses and/or don't choose teams where they know their liable to be dealt 1/4 or 1/3 of the way into the contract. On Wright: We're painting a scenario here where David CAN play but the Mets want to push him out at which point the insurance company joins in on take to pay some of his remaining contract they DON'T owe the team for David being unable to play? I'm not an insurance agent, nor do I tend to play one on the internet, but my impression is that I don't think that sort of action is part of their general business plan. What (some) fans seem to be hoping for here is a Prince Fielder situation where the medical staff declares David medically unable to to play the game ever again. That he's playing right now seems to blow a hole in that idea at least for now.
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Lefty Specialist Aug 23 2017 12:10 AM Re: Shopping List |
I think Wright is warming up to be a pinch-hitter come September so the fans can cheer him one last time, then he retires. That solves the insurance problem.
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Edgy MD Aug 23 2017 12:13 AM Re: Shopping List |
I think our notions of David Wright giving back tens of millions of dollars is highly speculative.
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Frayed Knot Aug 23 2017 12:22 AM Re: Shopping List |
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The net outcome of which is Wright taking the money owed to him and in effect donating to the bottom line of the Mets and the insurance carrier. Not sure that would be the option I'd choose.
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Ceetar Aug 23 2017 02:02 AM Re: Shopping List |
If David WERE to walk away, I'm sure it wouldn't be empty handed. The Wilpons would work some sort of deal out with him behind the scenes. Bonilla like or A-Rod like or whatever.
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Chad Ochoseis Aug 23 2017 03:29 AM Re: Shopping List |
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...which was the point I was making. There's zero chance that Wright will ever be what he was, and no more than a slim chance that he'll be even a replacement level player again. The Mets would probably love to activate him briefly for sentimental/PR reasons, and then possibly employ him in a non-playing role (that was Gwreck's original suggestion, which started the whole Wright tangent). But doing that would cost the Mets the insurance they're owed, unless Wright agrees to retire. Wright's owed $47M over 2018-2020, and insurance probably covers a large chunk of that. So it could be very pricy for the Mets to employ Wright again in any capacity. And, as sweet a guy as Wright is, I doubt he'd do the Mets and the insurance company a favor and retire, leaving $47M on the table. Even Cuddyer only left $12M, I think. But the Mets have some leverage with the insurer, as they probably have a choice as to whether to activate Wright from the 60 day DL if he's only partially healed. So they can go to the insurer and say "Let us activate Wright for a month so he can get his last hurrah before taking a job in the org, and we'll accept a little less than what we're owed. Say no, and we'll just keep him on the 60 day DL for the next three years, as we can do because his shoulder is still weak, and you'll be on the hook for ever penny of his salary."
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Frayed Knot Aug 23 2017 12:18 PM Re: Shopping List |
But here's the thing (and this aspect of the discussion is going on in two different threads now): the Mets can't just unilaterally decide to throw David Wright into the permanent DL dungeon and throw
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smg58 Aug 23 2017 03:06 PM Re: Shopping List |
Let's see how Wright looks before passing judgement. You obviously can't take him for granted, but he's here and under contract. As long as there is at least some chance that he will be useful next season, you might as well give him the opportunity.
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Edgy MD Aug 23 2017 03:09 PM Re: Shopping List |
Yeah, I don't know why folks wouldn't. The Moustakas stampede can wait.
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Centerfield Aug 23 2017 03:11 PM Re: Shopping List |
Of course. A team cannot keep healthy player on the DL and collect insurance. As you mention it will invite a grievance and constitutes insurance fraud. But Wright is not healthy. And will never be healthy again.
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Ashie62 Aug 23 2017 03:17 PM Re: Shopping List |
I would like to think there is a way for David to gets some September at bats and the money issues work out to the satisfaction of all.
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Vic Sage Aug 23 2017 03:43 PM Re: Shopping List Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Aug 23 2017 04:56 PM |
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The Pons have so much debt to service that i don't think the jackalope population in Mauritania is facing an imminent boom. And my suspicion is that our team's payroll will be equally boomless.
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Edgy MD Aug 23 2017 04:01 PM Re: Shopping List |
The truth is we're all pretty much utterly ignorant as to whether Wright is progressing or not. The notion that there is 0% chance of this happening and a higher likelihood of that happening is all speculation.
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Frayed Knot Aug 23 2017 04:31 PM Re: Shopping List |
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Well, what constitutes not healthy enough to be what he once was vs not healthy enough to ever play again is the part still to be determined before the insurance company willingly swoops in and picks up their obligation of the remaining contract. I'm just fighting the notion that the verdict is already in on this issue or that the Mets can unilaterally decree it simply because it's in their financial interest to do so. Whether David gets a handful of PH appearances towards the tail end of this season barely matters in this whole thing. I assume the policy pays for when he is on the DL and stops while he's not so if he joins the team when the rosters expand in September it'll cost the Mets one month of salary. BFD. It's what kind of shape he's in from 2018 on where the real question still lies and we simply haven't got the answer to that right now. If he can play then either the Mets have to buy him out in order to make him go away or accept a desk job, or keep an overpriced player on their roster (not the first time, won't be the last). And if he can't play then he won't and the insurance covers part of it - aka: status quo.
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Vic Sage Aug 23 2017 05:08 PM Re: Shopping List |
what the Mets need isn't available on the FA market. Moustakas is probably the best available, but he's the wrong type of player. They need to trade for Machado, or somebody of that level/age, to make an impact at 3b. But that means paying one of those guys a max-deal, so its unlikely that will happen, given the contract they just gave to Cespedes.
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Ashie62 Aug 23 2017 09:27 PM Re: Shopping List |
Maybe Rosario becomes a Machado, Lindor or Correa?
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