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Projected standings

Johnny Dickshot Mar 21 2006 12:05 PM

[url]http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/2006/03/2006-diamond-mind-projection-blowout.html[/url] MFY fan tries 1000 seasons with 3 different projected-stat frameworks, and the Mets finish 2nd to the Phils in all of them, but fairly consistently make the playoffs. Diamond Mind, which IIRC has been the most accurate of the 3, has the Mets winning the division 317 times in 1000 tries, and getting the WC another 127 times for a grand total of 44% Playoff chances. We could win as many as 103 games (that is, the most games we won in any 1 of the 1,000 seasons) and as few as 69, with a median of 86 and mode 88. Mets are more successful under Pecota, winning the East 404 times and getting 144 wild cards -- a 55% playoff rate. 107-67 win range, median 88, mode 87. ZiPs sez: 305 division championships; 152 wild cards, or 46%. 108-70 wins; 87/88 mean/mode. Combined average: 48% Playoff possibilities, as many as 108 wins and as few as 67. What's odd to me is the the Phils edge in all of these run-thrus is run-prevention. Not that I think our pitching is unbeatable but I'm not equally impressed with theirs either... Tho I do see the Mets and Phils both making the playoffs and think they'll be our main rivals this year.

Bret Sabermetric Mar 21 2006 12:17 PM

Unlikely.

Willets Point Mar 21 2006 12:22 PM

Be careful with words like "unlikely" around here.

Bret Sabermetric Mar 21 2006 12:24 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Mar 21 2006 12:34 PM

I thought that passed for an edifying response to projected stats.. SC=infinite

Johnny Dickshot Mar 21 2006 12:33 PM

DM last year in 1000 spins "predicted" an 82-80 season,m with an 8% chance of making the playoffs, based on RS/RA or 788/744 Of course we pitched 96 runs better than that guess, and scored 66 fewer. The record was off by 1 game, but we underperformed Pythag by 6.