Master Index of Archived Threads
2018 Draft Order
Frayed Knot Sep 27 2017 05:42 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Oct 01 2017 09:07 PM |
Yes it’s far too early, but discussions of 'all this winning is terrible' are making a comeback so this bears a fresh look.
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batmagadanleadoff Sep 27 2017 05:54 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
I never said anything about tanking. I'd just rather the Mets lose than win, which I think is indisputably the smarter play, if not the most ethical if the Mets really are considering tanking. I'd rather the Mets draft 4th or 5th instead of 7th or 8th. And what I'm hoping for wouldn't get me on the subway anyways being that I have no control whatsoever over what's gonna happen no matter how many times I roll my forearms Bo-style or whatever other superstitions I drag out in support of the cause. It's not as if the Mets are gonna lose the rest of the way till season's end all because they read my posts.
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Centerfield Sep 27 2017 06:12 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
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Nice work. Do you have numbers on picks 1, 2, and 3? I think it bears out what most have been saying. It's better to pick higher (duh) but at the end it may not show any tangible results.
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Frayed Knot Sep 27 2017 07:51 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
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I didn't, although that stuff is easily findable ... maybe I'll do it later if the game gets dull tonight. And I suspect those players will be demonstrably better since in those cases where there IS a consensus stud or two (I don't believe there are ever years with four or five) out there -- Harper, ARod, Griffey, Strasburg -- the #1 or #2 picks that year are generally undisputed and are most certain to eventually pan out. It's like the link you posted when this topic came up a month or two ago where some guy was making the case for striving for the better draft picks even in baseball. He was citing those rare superstar players as a way of saying that getting really high picks is better than getting only sort of high - a strategy which works in baseball as well as football or basketball, and, not surprisingly, Grateful Dead concerts. But it's still not a guarantee as not every year has a Griffey come out and not every Griffey shows his Griffeyness so early: see Trout, Mike - drafted 25th overall on the Angels second pick of the round Also, in order to secure the #1 pick this season for the next Carlos Correa (assuming one even exists) the 10-15 record the Mets have in September would have had to devolve into 4-21 -- this in a month where we faced or will face the Reds (x4) the Braves (x7) and the Phillies (x6) -- and that would be just enough to drop us into a tie with the current DFL Giants, and then we'd have to out-suck them over this final week as well. That would be almost impossible to do on purpose, maybe even tougher to watch/endure, and you STILL couldn't be sure that all the other sucky teams weren't going to out suck YOU down the stretch and steal the pick away anyway.
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Edgy MD Sep 27 2017 08:07 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
Don't advocate for your team to tank! Advocate for the elimination of the draft and all rewarding-the-loser devices that incentivize tanking!
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Frayed Knot Sep 27 2017 10:45 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 30 2017 01:28 PM |
OK, here we go: Top seven draft picks across an eleven year span (2000-2010)
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Nymr83 Sep 28 2017 02:38 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
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I really don't like the draft, especially in baseball. why can't the teams and the union agree to take the same damn spending limits in place now and just use that as an "amateur signing pool" instead? who loses out there?
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Frayed Knot Sep 30 2017 12:42 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
The draft slot has been narrowed down to 6th - 8th
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 30 2017 12:55 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
FWIW there was chatter out there recently to the effect of if they could do the 2014 draft all over again knowing what they know now there's an awful good shot that Conforto would be picked 1st. Maybe I saw that here, I forget.
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Frayed Knot Sep 30 2017 01:22 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
Don't think it was said here, but I do think there's a decent chance that's true. For sure he'd go higher than 10th.
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bmfc1 Oct 01 2017 11:51 AM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
http://www.baseballamerica.com/statisti ... gs/majors/
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Frayed Knot Oct 01 2017 11:40 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Oct 02 2017 01:51 PM |
I'm pretty sure this will be next year's top ten:
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batmagadanleadoff Oct 02 2017 05:19 AM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
It's a real good thing what the Mets did winning an extra two or three games down the stretch instead of getting to draft 4th next Summer. A real good thing.
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Frayed Knot Oct 02 2017 01:59 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
Mets would have needed three extra losses to slip into the 5th slot instead of 6th (go 9-20 in Sept/Oct instead of that torrid 12-17 pace they did set) or four extra (8-21) to nab 4th
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Benjamin Grimm Oct 02 2017 02:16 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
The guy who the Mets would have drafted with the 4th pick might still be available to them when they pick 6th.
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Vic Sage Oct 02 2017 05:25 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
And the race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong... but that's the way to bet.
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Edgy MD Oct 02 2017 05:39 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
Sure it is.
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batmagadanleadoff Oct 02 2017 05:44 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
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I'd rather draft 4th than 7th*. That's all I was saying and the only thing I could see that's complicated or controversial about that thinking is that you think it's complicated or controversial. *Especially when there are supposed to be about four no-brainer impact studs in the draft.
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Benjamin Grimm Oct 02 2017 05:51 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
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Well, sure, but I also don't think the difference is worth continually lamenting that the Mets went 12-17 over the last month of the season instead of 9-20.
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batmagadanleadoff Oct 02 2017 06:00 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
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I'd ordinarily agree with you. I usually have zero interest in the MLB draft. I don't give a shit about it and don't follow it. The draftees are too far away from reaching the MLB, if they ever will, and so the value of an MLB pick, I think, is notably less than a comparable pick in other sports. But it's different when the Mets have a chance to draft a special player, which many commentators believe would be available to the first four or five, maybe six teams picking. This draft is supposed to be top heavy loaded.
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Edgy MD Oct 02 2017 06:20 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
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No, that's not true. That may be all you're saying now, but the greater context is tanking to improve your draft position, which is certainly and unambiguously complicated and controversial. Beyond that, nobody has argued as resoundingly as yourself that the draft is a crapshoot. So this root-for-the-Mets-to-lose-and-improve-their-draft-position is a latter-day about-face.
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batmagadanleadoff Oct 02 2017 06:35 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
But see .my next post.
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Vic Sage Oct 02 2017 07:10 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
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oh, i agree. It's silly to "tank" in baseball, where no one draft pick is as likely to impact a franchise as it is in basketball or even football. But once a season is lost and your team is playing for next year, it's more important to give young players playing time, and a chance to develop, and an opportunity to see what you have, than it is to scrape the barrel for every win. In other words, I'd have rather seen more Cecchini and less Reyes coming into September, regardless of their relative performances in that period. We know what Reyes is, at least as in infielder. We don't quite yet know what Cecchini is and whether he figures into the team's future plans. Ditto with Aoki. giving him ABs over anybody else (including seeing if Reyes is good enough in the OF as to make him more desirable as a general utility guy) just to get a marginally better chance to win a game in September is countered by the upside of marginally better draft position and a chance to see what we have for next year. I don't think its a dire situation, either way. And i don't want players and coaches ever to go through the motions. But i think part of Sandy's thinking in stripping the roster of most of its available veterans was to force Terry into actually playing the kids, which he wasn't going to do unless forced.
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Frayed Knot Oct 02 2017 07:26 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
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This is at least the third or fourth time you've made reference to this now, what/who are your sources for this? Now I don't claim any particular expertise in amateur baseball or the draft, but with what little I do know I'd find it stunning if there's anything resembling a consensus among supposed experts that: 1) there are several sure-first studs at the top of the draft that separate the best of this coming year's crop from those the top of any other given year b) that such potential team-changing players represent a large gulf in talent between what's available those teams with the first few picks and what's left over for the next few selections III) that these things are known 8-9 months in advance of the draft and 4-5 months before the HS and college seasons from where these guys will come even begin
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batmagadanleadoff Oct 03 2017 04:22 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
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If you're talking about me, I'm not continually lamenting more than youse guys are continually lamenting that it's not worth lamenting over the later rather than earlier Mets draft slot. Youse have me beat with your counter-position laments by a wide margin. So I don't think it's worth continually lamenting that it's all the same if the Mets pick later instead of earlier, no matter what the value of the pick.
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batmagadanleadoff Oct 03 2017 04:24 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
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That bit about the "third or fourth time" is really superfluous, isn't it? Anyways, here ya go: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseb ... -1.3482723
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batmagadanleadoff Oct 03 2017 04:28 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
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bump from last post previous page to new thread page
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 03 2017 04:37 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
FWiW on October 2, Baseball America did a "Mock Draft" of the newly ranked clubs and have the Mets going with South Florida lefty Shane McClanahan. That Seth Beer guy John Harper thinks the Mets should lose on purpose to get isn't even in their projected top 30.
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Frayed Knot Oct 03 2017 05:41 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
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I don't think so. You mentioned multiple times that only reason you were even interested in draft position for the coming year was the supposed make-up of this particular draft, a claim which made me curious as to the source of your information.
Digging around a bit last night, that Jim Callis piece that your linked Harper piece cites was the one example I came up with also where deep draft and 2018 were mentioned. But Harper seems to be interpretting Callis is a way to fit a predetermined conclusion. Saying there are (right now anyway) a top two isn't the same as saying there's a huge fall-off after them. Hell, every list has a top two and the one thing we can probably count on is that they'll change over the next eight months. And by citing 2011 as a comparable draft he cites a year where there decidedly were not a couple outstanding and obvious picks followed by a marked fall-off, and one where the order was not all that predictive of who the future franchise-type players were going to be. Not that I wouldn't want Gerritt Cole, Trevor Bauer, or Dylan Bundy (picks 1, 3 & 4), but the picks from second five -- Anthony Rendon, Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez (#s 6, 8 , 9) -- currently look better than the first five. And not mentioned by Harper (or Callis for that matter) is that the #2 & 5 picks from that year have yet to see a day in the majors and one of them (#2) almost certainly never will.
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Edgy MD Oct 03 2017 06:12 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
Yeah, I'm in agreement. John Harper is no expert. Jim Callis doesn't appear to be actually saying what Harper thinks he's saying, or that any of it adds up to anything approaching consensus. Harper is just trying to troll the Mets by mocking past drafts, and encourage them to try to win by losing, like the losers they are.
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batmagadanleadoff Oct 03 2017 06:23 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
Still, heading into the draft, they're better off picking 4th or 5th instead of 7th or 8th. I'd say that every year, no matter who's available. You lament too much that it's no big deal if the Mets draft 7th instead of 4th. Why all the continuous lamenting? Stop lamenting a lot.
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Edgy MD Oct 03 2017 06:28 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
You've got me. Caught me lamenting when I shouldn't lament.
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Vic Sage Oct 03 2017 07:39 PM Re: 2018 Draft Order |
LAMENTER!
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