Master Index of Archived Threads


Duda redo?

41Forever Jan 12 2018 06:47 PM

Seeing a number of posts today about the Mets talking to Duda again. I don’t see a role. Clearly powerful, but plays one position in a non-DH league. If he comes back, that has to be a sign that Dom Smith is either not what they thought or is about to be part of a deal. Thoughts?

Benjamin Grimm Jan 12 2018 06:51 PM Re: Duda redo?

I don't know how you fit Duda and Bruce on the same team, unless the plan is to have Dom Smith spend the year at AAA. And if Duda gets a multi-year contract, I have to figure that they're trading Smith. I don't see it happening.

Edgy MD Jan 12 2018 07:23 PM Re: Duda redo?

Picking up options on Blevins and Cabrera! Re-signing Bruce and maybe Duda! If they can reach out to Grandy and Walker and Reyes, it'll be the boldest double down ever! Too bad it's too late to gobble Rivera back up! Get me Fernando Salas on line two!

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 12 2018 07:26 PM Re: Duda redo?

Peeps forget the offense was actually okay last year. That said if the Mets get Doodoo back I guess that means they're pretty CAHNfident Smith is going to suck.

Centerfield Jan 12 2018 08:08 PM Re: Duda redo?

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Peeps forget the offense was actually okay last year. That said if the Mets get Doodoo back I guess that means they're pretty CAHNfident Smith is going to suck. Or it's a hedge made by a win now team. I'd have no issue with Duda on a 1 year deal, but again, if the resources are limited, there might be better uses.

Nymr83 Jan 12 2018 10:20 PM Re: Duda redo?

if Duda will take one year i'm fine signing him and planting Smith at AAA once Conforto is healthy, assuming nobody else gets hurt. but its the Mets. someone will be hurt.

Valadius Jan 13 2018 12:58 AM Re: Duda redo?

I see no point in this. At all. Smith can't get his shot?

smg58 Jan 13 2018 01:18 AM Re: Duda redo?

It's possible that Duda is available at a bargain-basement price. That might make it worth seeing what Smith could bring back, but we'd probably be selling low on a guy who actually had a very high percentage of hard-hit balls but was criminally unlucky. There's no good reason to think Smith will suck long-term. Demoting Smith is an option, but I'm inclined to think that Las Vegas doesn't help hitting prospects any. In other words, call me back when the infield is solid, the pitching is much improved, and we still have some cash left over.

Edgy MD Jan 13 2018 03:18 AM Re: Duda redo?

"I hope turns out to be a 10-year All-Star. Best of luck to him." — Lucas Duda on Dominic Smith

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 13 2018 02:29 PM Re: Duda redo?

What a great guy Duda is. You know, maybe the 5th outfielder/LH pinch hitter can be Grandyman. Maybe Sandy's weird "unfinished business" remark is his own attempt to prove he'd built an adequate team last year that just happened to have been beset by too much calamity. I don't actually believe my own theory but I wonder how Sandy truly feels.

Lefty Specialist Jan 13 2018 05:41 PM Re: Duda redo?

Duda belongs in the AL, not on this team. Nice guy but too one-dimensional.

sharpie Jan 13 2018 06:15 PM Re: Duda redo?

No no no. Move on.

Frayed Knot Jan 13 2018 07:55 PM Re: Duda redo?

As I've said before, Duda is getting no more than a one-year deal (maybe 1 + 1 if he's lucky) and I highly doubt it will be from the Mets. And if by some chance it IS with us I'd see it as a way of delaying Smith by another year (or partial year) but NOT with the idea of jettisoning him.

Zvon Jan 13 2018 10:46 PM Re: Duda redo?

Duda, one yr, off the bench pinch hitter/a Smith hedge & Smith needs a day off guy. No OF unless we have a 10 run lead, lol. I doubt he would take that. He should be able to find more playing time in the A.L. no problem. Always liked Duda. And liked him more as time went by. He worked very hard to make needed improvements. And he learned to shut off the crowd completely. May as well have been empty stands to him. That's important for a guy who hears as many boooo's as cheers. Unless the Mets know something we don't about Smith I want to see him out there the most. Did he get injured a lot in the minors? Yes, he gets a full shot.

Nymr83 Jan 13 2018 11:29 PM Re: Duda redo?

I like Duda, but give Smith his shot. if Smith shits the bed, a guy like Duda is probably available via trade from someine wanting to salary dump in June, though.

Centerfield Jan 14 2018 02:01 PM Re: Duda redo?

I guess this really means no Duda. Or Hosmer or Adam Lind or anyone else. I know JCL still has feeling for his ex Granderson. Duda was the one I had to fight the urge to text after knocking a few back.

Edgy MD Jan 14 2018 03:03 PM Re: Duda redo?

Drunk-Texts to Duda would make a really good blog or social media profile or whatever a Tumblr is.

Nymr83 Jan 14 2018 04:26 PM Re: Duda redo?

Gonzalez probably closes the door on Duda, but if you are an advocate for Smith that is probably a good thing because Gonzalez represents lesser competition/ less of a roadblock for him.

Ceetar Jan 14 2018 10:34 PM Re: Duda redo?

I mean, i'd be ecstatic if Smith turns out to be as good as Duda, and if signing Duda for just money doesn't hurt anything budget wise I'd say for it.

Rockin' Doc Jan 15 2018 02:08 AM Re: Duda redo?

Duda seemed like a good guy and a great teammate in the clubhouse, but I was never as enthused with him as most on this board. Duda has tremendous power when he hits the ball, but he is a career .242 hitter that strikes out a lot. I don't expect Dom Smith to develop the power that Duda has, but I'm hopeful he will hit for a far better average over time. If Smith can hit 18-20 HR a year and hit .275 or better while playing solid defense, I'll take it. With the signing of Gonzalez, any speculation regarding Duda is pretty much a mute point.

Ceetar Jan 15 2018 03:34 AM Re: Duda redo?

33 first baseman hit at least 18 HR last year.

Rockin' Doc Jan 16 2018 03:40 AM Re: Duda redo?

Ceetar wrote: 33 first baseman hit at least 18 HR last year. I would imagine that 33 (or more) first baseman hit better than .217 last season. Two of the best first basemen the Mets ever had (John Olerud and Keith Hernandez) seldom hit more than 18 home runs a season. Not saying Dom Smith will turn out to be nearly as good as those two, but I hope he is more like them at the plate (in discipline and stylistically) and less like Duda. I for one, am tired of the Mets having a bunch of guys hitting solo home runs. The majority of the line up consists of sluggers who hit a lot of home runs while striking out a great deal. The team needs some good BA/OBP guys.

Ceetar Jan 16 2018 03:54 AM Re: Duda redo?

Rockin' Doc wrote: Ceetar wrote: 33 first baseman hit at least 18 HR last year. I would imagine that 33 (or more) first baseman hit better than .217 last season. Two of the best first basemen the Mets ever had (John Olerud and Keith Hernandez) seldom hit more than 18 home runs a season. Not saying Dom Smith will turn out to be nearly as good as those two, but I hope he is more like them at the plate (in discipline and stylistically) and less like Duda. I for one, am tired of the Mets having a bunch of guys hitting solo home runs. The majority of the line up consists of sluggers who hit a lot of home runs while striking out a great deal. The team needs some good BA/OBP guys. ..like Duda. over the last three seasons Duda's BB% was 29th in baseball. Granderson's was 14th. Those are the things we need to replace next year. It's why Neil Walker is probably the best option. Duda's wRC+, a weighted metric that measures how much a player contributes to run creation, was 119. 19% better than average and 47 in baseball of the 232 qualifying players over the last three seasons. Bruce is the slugger with no other skills you're thinking of. the rest of the team is mostly fine in that regard. striking out isn't really a big deal.

Rockin' Doc Jan 16 2018 04:09 AM Re: Duda redo?

Duda did hit .217 for the season last year. It's not as if his 200 plate appearances with the Rays never happened. I guess it is safe to say that we have different views on how to build a productive line up.

Ceetar Jan 16 2018 04:20 AM Re: Duda redo?

well for one, batting average is basically a worthless statistic and I wasn't even looking at it.

Zvon Jan 16 2018 01:27 PM Re: Duda redo?

Ceetar wrote: striking out isn't really a big deal. Ceetar wrote: well for one, batting average is basically a worthless statistic and I wasn't even looking at it. Tsk, tsk, kids today. Brainwashed and conditioned by what they are told are the new improved stats and that the old one's were garbage. Sure, there are better indicators of specific things, but don't be totally dismissing the old school stats. They can be at the bottom of your list, but keep them on your list. You should know better than that Ceets. You're a very intelligent guy. Striking out isn't really a big deal. Tsk, tsk.

Ceetar Jan 16 2018 02:24 PM Re: Duda redo?

yes, I do know better. and i've seen and read the math. batting average is so luck-riddled it's useless for telling anything of value, striking out isn't really a distinctly worse way to make an out. Duda is a very good player.

Nymr83 Jan 16 2018 03:49 PM Re: Duda redo? Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jan 16 2018 03:52 PM

Strike outs are pretty much meaningless at the major league level. They are just another out, and hey, you didn't ground into a double play! And you saw 3+ pitches! I might care about strikeouts in the minors, particularly the low minors, only because i'd be worried that if a guy is striking out a lot against poor competition he won't be ablw to hit higher level pitching at all. As for batting average... OBP is a better judge of past performance AND walk rate is a sign of a more sustainable skill over a small sample (even a full season) than batting average is. Given a choice between a rookie who hit .250/.350 and one who hit .350/.350, I would take the first guy every time as I bet he'll be the better player long term as babip evens out.

Edgy MD Jan 16 2018 03:52 PM Re: Duda redo?

If this is so mathematically established, I wish folks would cite the studies that support their positions.

Zvon Jan 16 2018 03:53 PM Re: Duda redo?

Ceetar wrote: yes, I do know better. and i've seen and read the math. batting average is so luck-riddled it's useless for telling anything of value, striking out isn't really a distinctly worse way to make an out. Duda is a very good player. Luck riddled? Explain that. I dinky hit is a hit, especially in the box score. Example: Dan Murphy had a lot of hard hit balls that were safe hits, singles, doubles, a triple every once in a while, and HRs, and he had his share of dinky hits too. Good hitters have a larger amount of dinky or "just dropped in" hits because they make more contact. Nothing lucky about a batting average when you look at it at the end of a season. If you are over .300 you are a better hitter than many other batters. It's really that simple. Aside from double and triple plays a K is the most unproductive out there is. A fielder, like Muffy, could muff a grounder. And outfielder could drop a routine fly ball. Unless there's a passed ball or wild pitch involved a K does absolutely nothing, kills rallys, & kills runner advancement. Just because baseball these days is fine with the K & K rate of individual players that doesn't mean, at least to me, that it's inconsequential. All my opinions and I'll eat my words if you can definitively prove me wrong. I really dig the new stats, I'm not some old guy yelling at a cloud, but I keep a place for the old ones and appreciate them still. Duda is a very good player.

Ceetar Jan 16 2018 04:40 PM Re: Duda redo?

Fielders just don't muff a lot of balls. you hit the ball on the ground, it's an out. 76% of the time. you mention a fielder could drop it, that's luck. it doesn't make it a good strategy. it's part of the reason bunting is typically bad, because simply putting the ball in play is not helpful. less and less so, as fielding is better and better. If you can't hit it hard, better to take the strike than flick it into play hoping it works. Literally 69% of the time a line drive becomes a hit. That's just logical, less time in the air means the fielders cover less ground. maybe you get a hit occasionally dinking them over fielders. maybe. but how many line drive doubles would you have hit if you'd let the pitch go? or fouled it off? yes, typically if you hit .300 or better you had a better year than a lot of guys, but you're not a better hitter. that's not predictive of being good, particularly in a predictive sense. You can't go "oh, Alex Presley, Howie Kendrick and Tim Beckham and Johan Camargo are going to be great next year" Jarrod Dyson, Starling Marte, Ichiro, Adam Engel, Ryan Schimpf, Jose Reyes. Not particularly good players. Those are the soft contact leaders. People have run tons of statistical analysis and find very little correlation between batting average and run creation. They've also run similar and found that a strikeout doesn't really hurt you much more than an out in play. It's not so much that you shouldn't worry about putting the ball in play if that's your game, but it makes the guys that strike out, but otherwise drive the ball, more valuable than the ones that just put the ball in play but don't strikeout as much. Of course, there are some diminishing returns stuff going on. Duda struck out 27.5% of the time last year. that's pushing up against too high, at that rate you have to also raise the number of balls that you hit hard when you hit them, something Duda didn't quite do last year. But the .217 BA isn't really indicative of a failing there, his .238 BABIP was way low for his career average, suggesting some decent bad luck. He was still 13% better than an average player, but even halfway back to his career BABIP probably gets him back to the 20-25% better range. He had a career high hard hit rate. He's gonna be fine in 2018. It's also why there's no way Aaron Judge is repeating his MVP level season next year, despite the Yankees heavily banking on it. 30.7% strikeout rate is craaaazy. And it came with a high BABIP and a high hard hit rate. He almost literally hit everything he did hit incredibly hard, but unless he can maintain that, he's going to trade home runs and doubles for more outs and his OBP will drop. But the Yankees aren't going to tell him to start trying to flick pitches the other way.

Zvon Jan 16 2018 05:29 PM Re: Duda redo?

Ceetar wrote: Fielders just don't muff a lot of balls. you hit the ball on the ground, it's an out. 76% of the time. you mention a fielder could drop it, that's luck. it doesn't make it a good strategy. it's part of the reason bunting is typically bad, because simply putting the ball in play is not helpful. less and less so, as fielding is better and better. If you can't hit it hard, better to take the strike than flick it into play hoping it works. Literally 69% of the time a line drive becomes a hit. That's just logical, less time in the air means the fielders cover less ground. Reaching approximately 25% of the time on errors is substantial at the MLB level. That's a big amount considering these guys are the best who play the game. A manager can do a lot with that extra amount. An outfield error isn't luck! That's baseball. That's being human. That's part of the game! One of the things that makes this game great. I don't wanna watch perfect robots play. Most of the time I see it done these days bunting sucks, so I agree w/u there. There are only a few good times to give yourself up. Of course it's better to take pitches that aren't in your zone as opposed to trying to flick em somewhere. Good hitters don't do that very much at all, unless they are seriously fooled. Part of the game. I'm also sure, like you, that line drives become hits more than any other type of contact (I like that 69% info). But there are other types of hits and they all count. I'll have to read and address the rest of this later tonight, heading out.

Ceetar Jan 16 2018 05:38 PM Re: Duda redo?

Zvon wrote: Ceetar wrote: Fielders just don't muff a lot of balls. you hit the ball on the ground, it's an out. 76% of the time. you mention a fielder could drop it, that's luck. it doesn't make it a good strategy. it's part of the reason bunting is typically bad, because simply putting the ball in play is not helpful. less and less so, as fielding is better and better. If you can't hit it hard, better to take the strike than flick it into play hoping it works. Literally 69% of the time a line drive becomes a hit. That's just logical, less time in the air means the fielders cover less ground. Reaching approximately 25% of the time on errors is substantial at the MLB level. That's a big amount considering these guys are the best who play the game. A manager can do a lot with that extra amount. An outfield error isn't luck! That's baseball. That's being human. That's part of the game! One of the things that makes this game great. I don't wanna watch perfect robots play. Most of the time I see it done these days bunting sucks, so I agree w/u there. There are only a few good times to give yourself up. Of course it's better to take pitches that aren't in your zone as opposed to trying to flick em somewhere. Good hitters don't do that very much at all, unless they are seriously fooled. Part of the game. I'm also sure, like you, that line drives become hits more than any other type of contact (I like that 69% info). But there are other types of hits and they all count. I'll have to read and address the rest of this later tonight, heading out. of course all the hits count. they're still lucky and not reproducible. That's not 24% reaching on error, that includes hard hit balls through the holes. 1.6% is the reached on error percentage for last year. ish.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 17 2018 07:44 AM Re: Duda redo?

In short, zvon, batting average tells you about what happened. But it tells you a lot less about how the player performed (because of all the statistical noise-- most of it fielding-related-- that Ceetar outlined) As such, it's got less predictive value than other measures (such as line-drive percentage)

Zvon Jan 17 2018 04:07 PM Re: Duda redo?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: In short, zvon, batting average tells you about what happened. But it tells you a lot less about how the player performed (because of all the statistical noise-- most of it fielding-related-- that Ceetar outlined) As such, it's got less predictive value than other measures (such as line-drive percentage) I don't doubt any of that. I'm just saying don't dismiss batting average altogether (to Ceets). I'd like my card backs to include all the new stats, they are very telling. But I'd also like to see the B.A. right there at the end.

Nymr83 Jan 17 2018 04:27 PM Re: Duda redo?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: In short, zvon, batting average tells you about what happened. But it tells you a lot less about how the player performed (because of all the statistical noise-- most of it fielding-related-- that Ceetar outlined) As such, it's got less predictive value than other measures (such as line-drive percentage) besides not being predictive, batting average tells you less about "what happened" already than OBP does. Batting Average has zero advantage, whether looking backwards or forwards, over OBP.

Ashie62 Jan 17 2018 07:06 PM Re: Duda redo?

My little baseball world lives in AB R H 2B 3B HR SB W L ERA K BB WHIP /SLASH lW.A.R. Thats my story and I'm stickin to it.

Zvon Jan 17 2018 09:37 PM Re: Duda redo?

Ashie62 wrote: My little baseball world lives in AB R H 2B 3B HR SB W L ERA K BB WHIP /SLASH lW.A.R. Thats my story and I'm stickin to it. lol. And you're an old timer like me. An older timer IIRC. If you can't sway me no one will. #unswayed in SJ

Ceetar Jan 17 2018 09:56 PM Re: Duda redo?

Zvon wrote: LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: In short, zvon, batting average tells you about what happened. But it tells you a lot less about how the player performed (because of all the statistical noise-- most of it fielding-related-- that Ceetar outlined) As such, it's got less predictive value than other measures (such as line-drive percentage) I don't doubt any of that. I'm just saying don't dismiss batting average altogether (to Ceets). I'd like my card backs to include all the new stats, they are very telling. But I'd also like to see the B.A. right there at the end. yes, but the reason you like to see it is because you've always seen it and it feels right and helps you relate modern players to ones you remember. but it's faulty and fails to really do an adequate job of that. They're fine trivialities. like uniform numbers, or RBI or pitcher wins.

Ashie62 Jan 17 2018 10:28 PM Re: Duda redo?

Zvon wrote: Ashie62 wrote: My little baseball world lives in AB R H 2B 3B HR SB W L ERA K BB WHIP /SLASH W.A.R. Thats my story and I'm stickin to it. lol. And you're an old timer like me. An older timer IIRC. If you can't sway me no one will. #unswayed in SJ That is the truth and made me laugh. Big Eagles weekend!

Zvon Jan 18 2018 01:03 AM Re: Duda redo?

Ceetar wrote: Zvon wrote: LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: In short, zvon, batting average tells you about what happened. But it tells you a lot less about how the player performed (because of all the statistical noise-- most of it fielding-related-- that Ceetar outlined) As such, it's got less predictive value than other measures (such as line-drive percentage) I don't doubt any of that. I'm just saying don't dismiss batting average altogether (to Ceets). I'd like my card backs to include all the new stats, they are very telling. But I'd also like to see the B.A. right there at the end. yes, but the reason you like to see it is because you've always seen it and it feels right and helps you relate modern players to ones you remember. That could very well be correct sir!