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Democratic Nomination 2020

Centerfield Jan 09 2018 04:30 PM

So if not Oprah then who? I propose Kirsten Gillibrand. http://www.newsweek.com/kirsten-gillibr ... ent-715735 Besides, white women didn't vote for Hillary in 2016. Do you think there is any chance they will vote for a black woman? Find me a better candidate than Gillibrand.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 09 2018 04:34 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

I don't know if they're better than Gillibrand, but other alternatives I've been hearing about are Kamala Harris and Cory Booker. I don't yet have a preference among the three of them. And there's also Biden and Bernie and Elizabeth Warren.

Ceetar Jan 09 2018 04:35 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

I propose they run 'democratic nominee' and then don't tell anyone until after the election who the party selected. makes it hard for republicans to run attack ads or energize a base to come out and vote against someone.

d'Kong76 Jan 09 2018 05:18 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

. [bigpurple:36bxlpst]Ellen[/bigpurple:36bxlpst]

Nymr83 Jan 09 2018 05:19 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Gillibrand and Booker both seem like reasonable candidates, particularly when you are trying to win an election against Donald Trump. There is absolutely no reason to give him a nutjob far-left or scandal-ridden hillary-esque opponent to attack. Run either of them and i'd say you are 90% likely to win right now. Sanders is pretty far from the mainstream, will be almost 80 at election day, and his wife has an active scandal that could lead to criminal charges. if he is the nominee, democratic voters should be very angry at their party. Kamala Harris as AG of CA tried to intimidate conservative non-profits by forcing them to turn over donor lists - almost exactly the same actions as what the court struck down in NAACP v Alabama. She was rightfully smacked down hard by the courts. I'd hate to have someone else like that in charge, no matter their political leanings. I don't know what she brings as a candidate that Gillibrand doesn't surpass. I suspect, without polls to look at, that Warren is far less popular in the places that matter than Gillibrand/Booker. Not sure where i'd fall on her as a candidate overall but i'd say she isnt the strongest they can run. I'm sure Cuomo and DiBlasio want to be part of the conversation, but i'm not sure the party at large wants them to be. I think Tammy Duckworth is ineligible? Otherwise she could run just so we could all watch Donald Trump make fun of a disabled veteran, though i suppose he's already done that.

Mets Willets Point Jan 09 2018 05:42 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Jeb Bush. Fits in with the core Democratic Party belief of "winning elections by moving to the right." Also, since they now think that George W. Bush was a decent guy, they may as well get the "smart one" on their side.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 09 2018 05:45 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

I don't know: Wikipedia wrote: Duckworth was the first Asian American woman elected to Congress in Illinois, the first disabled woman to be elected to Congress, and the first member of Congress born in Thailand. Her father, an American, and her Thai-Chinese mother were working and living there at the time. Since her father was an American citizen, wouldn't that make her a citizen from birth? I think that's what made Ted Cruz eligible.

Mets Willets Point Jan 09 2018 05:46 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Nymr83 wrote: I think Tammy Duckworth is ineligible? Otherwise she could run just so we could all watch Donald Trump make fun of a disabled veteran, though i suppose he's already done that. Duckworth's father was a US citizen at the time of her birth so she's as eligible as John McCain or Ted Cruz.

41Forever Jan 09 2018 06:04 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Watch for someone to rise from the ranks of the governors, rather than the Senate. And I think it will be someone younger than Biden/Warren/Sanders. Keep an eye on Virgina Gov. Terry McAuliffe.

sharpie Jan 09 2018 07:40 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Dems don't have much of a reasonable Governor bench. Terry McAuliffe is not really a viable candidate. Jerry Brown and Andrew Cuomo are the only ones with name recognition and I don't think either one of them is going to get the nomination. I do remember that in 2016 you, 41Forever (in your former guise), said that the GOP candidate would come from the governor's ranks as well. Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and John Kasich ended up winning a grand total of one primary.

Edgy MD Jan 09 2018 07:52 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

If you've got the goods, there's plenty of time to get name recognition. And in addition to governors, there are also plenty of former governors.

Frayed Knot Jan 09 2018 08:00 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Centerfield wrote: Besides, white women didn't vote for Hillary in 2016. Do you think there is any chance they will vote for a black woman? White women didn't vote for Hillary because they didn't like Hillary, not enough of them anyway. Give people a candidate they trust and *MOST* won't care about the race/gender/ethnicity.

cooby Jan 09 2018 08:04 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

I voted for Hillary and I would vote for a black woman too. But not just for those reasons Btw I love Ellen and wouldn't wish it on her :)

41Forever Jan 09 2018 09:12 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

sharpie wrote: Dems don't have much of a reasonable Governor bench. Terry McAuliffe is not really a viable candidate. Jerry Brown and Andrew Cuomo are the only ones with name recognition and I don't think either one of them is going to get the nomination. I do remember that in 2016 you, 41Forever (in your former guise), said that the GOP candidate would come from the governor's ranks as well. Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and John Kasich ended up winning a grand total of one primary. I think we all were surprised by what happened in 2016. But I do think that governors tend to be better presidents. Why is McAuliffe not a viable candidate? The Clinton connections?

Nymr83 Jan 09 2018 09:24 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Hickenlooper isnt viable? he was the next name i thought of not already mentioned in my post above. Duckworth's father was a US citizen at the time of her birth so she's as eligible as John McCain or Ted Cruz. i dont know anything about Cruz's situation. McCain was born at a Navy base in the Panama Canal Zone, which was considered US territory at the time. is parents' citizenship enough?

Centerfield Jan 09 2018 09:24 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Frayed Knot wrote: Centerfield wrote: Besides, white women didn't vote for Hillary in 2016. Do you think there is any chance they will vote for a black woman? White women didn't vote for Hillary because they didn't like Hillary, not enough of them anyway. Give people a candidate they trust and *MOST* won't care about the race/gender/ethnicity. How I wish that were true. 68% of white women voted for likeable, trustworthy Roy Moore.

sharpie Jan 09 2018 09:29 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

The Clinton connection plus his general terribleness as head of the DNC plus his super-insider background seem to be exactly what the public doesn't want. He only won the Virginia governership because Ken Cuccinelli was an even more terrible candidate. I do agree that governorships are good training grounds for the White House. I just don't see it with the current Democratic crop. As Edgy points out there could be some that appear in the forefront between now and then but 3 years out I can't see anyone I would put a dollar on.

41Forever Jan 09 2018 09:36 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

sharpie wrote: The Clinton connection plus his general terribleness as head of the DNC plus his super-insider background seem to be exactly what the public doesn't want. He only won the Virginia governership because Ken Cuccinelli was an even more terrible candidate. I do agree that governorships are good training grounds for the White House. I just don't see it with the current Democratic crop. As Edgy points out there could be some that appear in the forefront between now and then but 3 years out I can't see anyone I would put a dollar on. Fair points. The Dems have a weak bench across the board. In a bit of a transition from the aging Pelosi/Reid/Biden era to the next generation.

Mets Willets Point Jan 09 2018 09:42 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Nymr83 wrote: Hickenlooper isnt viable? he was the next name i thought of not already mentioned in my post above. Duckworth's father was a US citizen at the time of her birth so she's as eligible as John McCain or Ted Cruz. i dont know anything about Cruz's situation. McCain was born at a Navy base in the Panama Canal Zone, which was considered US territory at the time. is parents' citizenship enough? Cruz was born in Calgary, Alberta. Didn't move to the US until he was 4. His mother was a US citizen and his father was a Cuban who'd not yet gained US citizenship at the time.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 09 2018 10:03 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Centerfield wrote: Centerfield wrote: Besides, white women didn't vote for Hillary in 2016. Do you think there is any chance they will vote for a black woman? White women didn't vote for Hillary because they didn't like Hillary, not enough of them anyway. Give people a candidate they trust and *MOST* won't care about the race/gender/ethnicity. How I wish that were true. 68% of white women voted for likeable, trustworthy Roy Moore. Well, those are white women in Alabama. It might very well be different in swing states.

Nymr83 Jan 09 2018 11:18 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Mets Willets Point wrote: Nymr83 wrote: Hickenlooper isnt viable? he was the next name i thought of not already mentioned in my post above. Duckworth's father was a US citizen at the time of her birth so she's as eligible as John McCain or Ted Cruz. i dont know anything about Cruz's situation. McCain was born at a Navy base in the Panama Canal Zone, which was considered US territory at the time. is parents' citizenship enough? Cruz was born in Calgary, Alberta. Didn't move to the US until he was 4. His mother was a US citizen and his father was a Cuban who'd not yet gained US citizenship at the time. And you are sure we can't disqualify him? ;)

Centerfield Jan 09 2018 11:20 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Centerfield wrote: Centerfield wrote: Besides, white women didn't vote for Hillary in 2016. Do you think there is any chance they will vote for a black woman? White women didn't vote for Hillary because they didn't like Hillary, not enough of them anyway. Give people a candidate they trust and *MOST* won't care about the race/gender/ethnicity. How I wish that were true. 68% of white women voted for likeable, trustworthy Roy Moore. Well, those are white women in Alabama. It might very well be different in swing states. Understood. But the number was offered to demonstrate that it's too simplistic to suggest this was about likeability. Race/gender/ethnicity are huge factors. Roy Moore, a sexual predator, ran on a platform of bigotry and prejudice, and carried the white woman vote 68% in his state. Donald Trump, a sexual predator, ran on a platform of bigotry and prejudice and carried the white woman vote 53% nationwide. Underestimating bigotry doomed the Democrats in 2020. That can never happen again.

Ashie62 Jan 09 2018 11:33 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Cory Booker

Edgy MD Jan 10 2018 12:17 AM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

I've met Senator Casey. I though he was alright.

Lefty Specialist Jan 10 2018 01:12 AM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Too early. Things need to shake out a little bit first. There are about 10 names, some I like but don't love, some that shouldn't run, some I think are phonies. We'll see how it plays out. Like: Hickenlooper Harris Gillibrand Warren Sherrod Brown Shouldn't run: Sanders Biden Oprah Phonies: Cuomo Booker

Ceetar Jan 10 2018 01:34 AM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

It's almost more complicated than just 'underestimated bigotry' in a two party system particularly. 18-29 white women did not, in fact, prefer Trump. And over all it was just 31.3 million white women who voted Trump, which is less than 10% of the population. And is something like 28% of white women by population. If you pick a random white woman, she probably DIDN'T vote for Trump, even more so if she's under say 45 or so.

Frayed Knot Jan 10 2018 12:00 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Centerfield wrote: Understood. But the number was offered to demonstrate that it's too simplistic to suggest this was about likeability. Race/gender/ethnicity are huge factors. I'm missing the part where white women not voting for a white woman is somehow proof that race/gender/ethnicity are huge factors.

Centerfield Jan 10 2018 04:19 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Frayed Knot wrote: Centerfield wrote: Understood. But the number was offered to demonstrate that it's too simplistic to suggest this was about likeability. Race/gender/ethnicity are huge factors. I'm missing the part where white women not voting for a white woman is somehow proof that race/gender/ethnicity are huge factors. You should have kept reading. Centerfield wrote: Roy Moore, a sexual predator, ran on a platform of bigotry and prejudice, and carried the white woman vote 68% in his state. Donald Trump, a sexual predator, ran on a platform of bigotry and prejudice and carried the white woman vote 53% nationwide. In 2016, the majority of white women nationwide voted for Donald Trump, a person who bragged about sexual assault, peeped on teenage beauty pageant contestants, and openly talked in a derogatory manner about women. As far as I know, these are things that women generally do not like. Why did they vote for him then? Because Hillary was oh so unlikeable? Maybe. But maybe it had something to do with his platform. His open embrace of bigotry and prejudice. But I get it. Hillary's voice is shrill. In 2017, a super majority of white women in Alabama voted for Roy Moore. There was a mountain of evidence that he was a predator of under age women. Pedophilia is also something frowned upon by women. So again, why did they vote for Moore? Was Doug Jones also unlikeable? Did he also have a shrill voice and not smile enough? Maybe. Or maybe, the super majority of white women embraced the platform of bigotry and prejudice. And they would have voted for anyone, any criminal, so long as they were racist, homophobic and wanted to ban abortions. Why would millions of poor people vote against their financial interest? Why would millions of poor people vote for a party actively trying to take away their health care? Because those people are fed lies that justify their feelings of hate, prejudice, insecurity that is brewing inside them, and these con artists tell them that it is ok to feel that way. Racism, islamophobia, homophobia, abortions, misogyny, this is what is going on in this country. Anyone who doesn't see that isn't paying attention. There is no other explanation why Donald Trump would obliterate the other Republican nominees, and there is no other reason he is now the President. Every Republican wants to give tax breaks to the rich. The reason Trump won is because he's a racist, islamophobic, homophobic, pro-life misogynist who wants to give tax breaks to the rich. It's unfortunate that this has to be spelled out like this on a message board. One would hope that everyone could pick this up just by looking around at what is going on. But like the part of my post you ignored, I think a lot of people don't see what they don't want to see. "Hillary was just unlikeable." It boggles my mind that anyone can believe this. But this is the essence of white privilege. "Oh whatever, it's not nearly as bad as those minorities make it seem. Everything's fine!" In 2016, there were people who voted for Trump because they LOVE him. They would have chosen him over Mother Theresa. Millions of Americans love him because of his bigotry. We're not going to get those votes. These are the people we have to defeat. And then there were the voters who voted for Trump despite his bigotry. Because they really felt like he might save their jobs, or represent a change from the same old Washington. These are the votes we have to get back. And because we know the world isn't gumdrops and unicorns, we know race is a factor. So as we look ahead to 2020, we have no choice but to consider the very real idea that maybe running a black woman doesn't represent our best chance of success. It sucks, but that appears to be our reality.

Ceetar Jan 10 2018 04:28 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Centerfield wrote: So as we look ahead to 2020, we have no choice but to consider the very real idea that maybe running a black woman doesn't represent our best chance of success. It sucks, but that appears to be our reality. meh. Wouldn't the 'Trump base' be the same ones that are motivated to go out and vote against a black woman? The trick, as it always is, is to not motivate the rest of the party, because vocal or not, those out and out racists are a minority. The vast majority of people vote for their own interests, without much thought to others. "they'll figure something out". People WERE motivated to vote against Hillary, or simply to not vote FOR her and stayed home. "I've got a job and the government is a slog and whoever's in there isn't really going to affect me much". Some were convinced by the lies. the lies that there would be more/better jobs, that they're taxed too high and this tax bill that they needed Moore's vote for would do more good for them with no real downside besides rewarding a predator, but they're not young women or at risk of being abused by him, so take the tax break. Trump being an evil monster will motivate a lot of those types of people to go out and vote for a not-horrible alternative, whereas all the people on the republican side that don't particularly like Trump but were very anti-Hillary will be all 'meh' about caring if some random democrat wins, maybe they even like the idea of Oprah as a non-establishment person. and of course, illegal gerrymandering will always play a role.

Chad Ochoseis Jan 10 2018 09:23 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Shouldn't run: Sanders Biden Oprah What's the issue with Biden? Sure, he's old both in age and perspective, but he's in good health and is wildly popular, at least right now ([url]http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/22/politics/biden-poll-analysis/index.html). He was an effective vice president and has demonstrated a stronger grasp of domestic and international issues than anyone else in the field so far. He's respected by insiders and outsiders, and has shown an ability to connect with a wide range of Democratic constituencies. The plagiarism issues that came up in the 1988 race have largely been dissected and debunked as dumb oversights. There's been talk about sexual harassment, but for now that talk amounts to nothing more than a bunch of murmuring from the peanut gallery. I'm not necessarily saying he's the best candidate. I'd like to see more of Tammy Duckworth (I don't think there are "natural-born citizen" issues; she was born a US citizen), and I'd like to hear more of Kirsten Gillibrand's views. But I wouldn't put him in the Sanders/Oprah group of people who need to stay far away from the 2020 race.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 10 2018 09:25 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Oprah could be the next Bernie, in that if she runs for the nomination and doesn't get it, there could be a Susan-Sarandon-style backlash against whoever gets the nomination.

Ashie62 Jan 10 2018 10:14 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Islamophobia? I do see extreme Islam as a threat each and every day. There is a theory that the names we throw out early for 2020 will not appear on a ticket come the next Presidential election. Too early to speculate although I understand it is fun. As in Romney in 2020. Minding my own business in Suburbia. Let the eggheads present poo-poo. Be Well.

Edgy MD Jan 10 2018 11:47 PM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Ashie62 wrote: Islamophobia? I do see extreme Islam as a threat each and every day. There are plenty who make no distinction between extreme Islam and Islam. And there is a terible president who inflates (and capitalizes on) the the work of Muslim killers while dismissing the threat of far more rampant and more lethal work of non-Muslim killers.

Lefty Specialist Jan 11 2018 01:30 AM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

I have redneck-with-anger-issues-and-too-many-guns-ophobia. They're a lot more dangerous. Biden is too old. He'd be 77 if elected. The Democratic party needs a younger standard-bearer. I love the man, but no.

Frayed Knot Jan 11 2018 02:31 AM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Yeah, 77 is the oldest age of anyone ever leaving the presidency. Not exactly what you'd want entering it.

batmagadanleadoff Jan 11 2018 05:11 AM Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Centerfield wrote: Centerfield wrote: Understood. But the number was offered to demonstrate that it's too simplistic to suggest this was about likeability. Race/gender/ethnicity are huge factors. I'm missing the part where white women not voting for a white woman is somehow proof that race/gender/ethnicity are huge factors. You should have kept reading. Centerfield wrote: Roy Moore, a sexual predator, ran on a platform of bigotry and prejudice, and carried the white woman vote 68% in his state. Donald Trump, a sexual predator, ran on a platform of bigotry and prejudice and carried the white woman vote 53% nationwide. In 2016, the majority of white women nationwide voted for Donald Trump, a person who bragged about sexual assault, peeped on teenage beauty pageant contestants, and openly talked in a derogatory manner about women. As far as I know, these are things that women generally do not like. Why did they vote for him then? Because Hillary was oh so unlikeable? Maybe. But maybe it had something to do with his platform. His open embrace of bigotry and prejudice. But I get it. Hillary's voice is shrill. In 2017, a super majority of white women in Alabama voted for Roy Moore. There was a mountain of evidence that he was a predator of under age women. Pedophilia is also something frowned upon by women. So again, why did they vote for Moore? Was Doug Jones also unlikeable? Did he also have a shrill voice and not smile enough? Maybe. Or maybe, the super majority of white women embraced the platform of bigotry and prejudice. And they would have voted for anyone, any criminal, so long as they were racist, homophobic and wanted to ban abortions. Why would millions of poor people vote against their financial interest? Why would millions of poor people vote for a party actively trying to take away their health care? Because those people are fed lies that justify their feelings of hate, prejudice, insecurity that is brewing inside them, and these con artists tell them that it is ok to feel that way. Racism, islamophobia, homophobia, abortions, misogyny, this is what is going on in this country. Anyone who doesn't see that isn't paying attention. There is no other explanation why Donald Trump would obliterate the other Republican nominees, and there is no other reason he is now the President. Every Republican wants to give tax breaks to the rich. The reason Trump won is because he's a racist, islamophobic, homophobic, pro-life misogynist who wants to give tax breaks to the rich. It's unfortunate that this has to be spelled out like this on a message board. One would hope that everyone could pick this up just by looking around at what is going on. But like the part of my post you ignored, I think a lot of people don't see what they don't want to see. "Hillary was just unlikeable." It boggles my mind that anyone can believe this. But this is the essence of white privilege. "Oh whatever, it's not nearly as bad as those minorities make it seem. Everything's fine!" In 2016, there were people who voted for Trump because they LOVE him. They would have chosen him over Mother Theresa. Millions of Americans love him because of his bigotry. We're not going to get those votes. These are the people we have to defeat. And then there were the voters who voted for Trump despite his bigotry. Because they really felt like he might save their jobs, or represent a change from the same old Washington. These are the votes we have to get back. And because we know the world isn't gumdrops and unicorns, we know race is a factor. So as we look ahead to 2020, we have no choice but to consider the very real idea that maybe running a black woman doesn't represent our best chance of success. It sucks, but that appears to be our reality. So then how do you explain Barack Obama's two presidential election victories?