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Upside /downside

Bret Sabermetric Mar 29 2006 03:56 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Mar 29 2006 05:54 AM

Starters (both assuming no major health problems, which skews this towards the "upside" side somewhat) Pedro 20-5/ 13-9 Glavine 15-10/ 10-15 Trax 15-10/ 11-13 Zambrano 18-8/ 10-15 Bannister 13-10/ 8-16 Anyone care to posit extremes broader than that? Obviously Pedro and Glavine have put up better numbers in the past than I'm projecting their upsides to be in 2006, but I think I'm realistically accounting for the fact they're beyond their prime years. The biggest gap is IMO between Zambrano's up and his down. If he continues to be "Victor-in-name-only-Zambrano", suffering from Fernandez's Disease (giving you four or five impressive, high K, innings, suddenly and sickeningly punctuated by a series of balls nowhere near home plate and then a 3-run HR), the Mets have a chance to finish under .500 because Willie will continue seeing the good things in his starts and he'll throw Zambrano out there all season to rack up L after L again. OE: grammar policing

seawolf17 Mar 29 2006 05:26 AM

I think those are pretty right except for Bannister... I doubt they let him hang around to lose 16 games.

Bret Sabermetric Mar 29 2006 05:53 AM

They might if it represented a poor finish. If he starts out 7-10 with a few tough losses and a decent ERA, I think they'll let him go 1-6 in August and September if they're out of the race. I'm really trying to come up with plausible scenarios for a best- and-worst case. What's your downside for Bannister? 12 loses and he definitely gets yanked from the rotation, you think?

duan Mar 29 2006 05:58 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Mar 29 2006 07:11 AM

d'yknow what ... both the upside and downside could be achieved by the pitcher no matter how he well or poorly he pitched. Kevin Millwood finished with a 9-11 record last season despite playing for a team with a decent offense (no record breakers or anything but 4th in the league in runs scored) with a 2.86 ERA. What's his won loss record got to do with how he pitched? Bugger all.

seawolf17 Mar 29 2006 06:28 AM

Bret Sabermetric wrote: They might if it represented a poor finish. If he starts out 7-10 with a few tough losses and a decent ERA, I think they'll let him go 1-6 in August and September if they're out of the race. I'm really trying to come up with plausible scenarios for a best- and-worst case. What's your downside for Bannister? 12 loses and he definitely gets yanked from the rotation, you think? When you put it that way, it makes sense. That's probably right.

Bret Sabermetric Mar 29 2006 07:30 AM

duan wrote: What's his won loss record got to do with how he pitched? Bugger all. It's shorthand. What I'm saying is that if Bannister pitches all season and he as ineffective as I'm thinking he could be AND if he has back luck (like Millwood) my worst case scenario is 8-16. Obviously it's conceivable (see Anthony Young) he could be an outlier but I'm looking for probable scenarios. I do like the sound of "bugger all," though. I think I'll be saying that all morning.

Elster88 Mar 29 2006 07:33 AM

In my wilder fantasies I see Zambrano winning 14 games this year. 18 might be a stretch.

Edgy MD Mar 29 2006 07:35 AM

I'm as mad for the Mets as any y'all, probably more than most. But my wilder fantasies don't involve Victor Zambrano.

Bret Sabermetric Mar 29 2006 07:37 AM

My wilder fantasies all involve Anna Benson, Mrs. Lima and a bottle of olive oil.

Elster88 Mar 29 2006 07:38 AM

An Anna Benson can be picked up for $50 at any strip club. That price includes the oil.

Benjamin Grimm Mar 29 2006 07:42 AM

Bret Sabermetric wrote: My wilder fantasies all involve Anna Benson, Mrs. Lima and a bottle of olive oil. Extra virgin?

Benjamin Grimm Mar 29 2006 08:20 AM

Using the numbers from Bret's opening post: Record for the Upsiders: 81-43 .653. Plus 38 bullpen decisions. Record for the Downsiders: 52-68 .433 Plus 42 bullpen decisions. Let's just say that the upside of the bullpen is a .600 winning percentage, and the downside is a .400. The Upsiders would finish 104-58, home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Downsiders would have a final record of 69-93. At best fourth place, most likely fifth.

duan Mar 29 2006 08:34 AM

Bret Sabermetric wrote: What's his won loss record got to do with how he pitched? Bugger all. It's shorthand. What I'm saying is that if Bannister pitches all season and he as ineffective as I'm thinking he could be AND if he has back luck (like Millwood) my worst case scenario is 8-16. Obviously it's conceivable (see Anthony Young) he could be an outlier but I'm looking for probable scenarios. I do like the sound of "bugger all," though. I think I'll be saying that all morning. But you're still getting it wrong Kevin Millwood: Last year went 9-11 for the Cleveland Indians. Cliff Lee: Last year went 18-5 for the Cleveland Indians. KM era: 2.86 CL era: 3.79 W/L records tell you very little.

Bret Sabermetric Mar 29 2006 08:53 AM

Sure. But they don't tell you nothing, either. Look, you choose the five worst pct pitchers with over 20 decisions last year for your staff and let me choose the five best for mine, and I will KICK YOUR ASS consistently. Now, maybe one of your 6-17 pitchers had awful luck and maybe he even outpitched one of my luckier 17-6 guys. But my other four will be so much better than your other four that I'll more than make up for the anomaly.

duan Mar 29 2006 12:08 PM

Bret Sabermetric wrote: Sure. But they don't tell you nothing, either. Look, you choose the five worst pct pitchers with over 20 decisions last year for your staff and let me choose the five best for mine, and I will KICK YOUR ASS consistently. Now, maybe one of your 6-17 pitchers had awful luck and maybe he even outpitched one of my luckier 17-6 guys. But my other four will be so much better than your other four that I'll more than make up for the anomaly. But what you were asking was "upside - downside" as if the quality of the pitchers performance over the course of the season was the fundamental dictator of that record. It isn't. You choose the five pitchers with the highest win % 1 Chris Carpenter StL 2 Cliff Lee Cle 3 John Lackey LAA 4 Bartolo Colon LAA 5 Carlos Zambrano CHC and I've NO problem choosing 5 pitchers who performed better then ALL of them.

Benjamin Grimm Mar 29 2006 12:15 PM

Well, he's saying that pitchers with good winning percentages are usually better than pitchers with bad percentages. Who were the five with 20 decisions and the lowest winning percentages?

Benjamin Grimm Mar 29 2006 12:23 PM

Here are the bottom 15: Z. Greinke (KC) 5-17 0.227 J. Lima (KC) 5-16 0.238 M. Redman (PIT) 5-15 0.250 N. Robertson (DET) 7-16 0.304 K. Wells (PIT) 8-18 0.308 B. Lawrence (SD) 7-15 0.318 J. Wright (COL) 8-16 0.333 R. Franklin (SEA) 8-15 0.348 E. Milton (CIN) 8-15 0.348 B. Tomko (SF) 8-15 0.348 R. Hernandez (KC) 8-14 0.364 J. Johnson (DET) 8-13 0.381 J. Kennedy (OAK) 8-13 0.381 C. Fossum (TB) 8-12 0.400 B. Halsey (ARI) 8-12 0.400

Bret Sabermetric Mar 29 2006 12:30 PM

duan wrote: and I've NO problem choosing 5 pitchers who performed better then ALL of them. I'm sure, but you don't get to pick and choose. You get to match those five against the five worst pct W/L pitchers. Not so attractive, is it? If W/L were purely random, completely without meaning, that wouldn't be so. To go from "W/L is overstated sometimes as a criiterion of quality" to "W/L is meaningless" is a gross error.

duan Mar 30 2006 04:35 AM

that wasn't what Brett originally looked at. He posted "potential win-loss records - best/worst" for the mets current starting 5 clearly alluding to the idea that those records would be dictated by the performance of the starter. They are INFLUENCED by but not dictated by the performance of the starter. My point was that Pedro could pitch the EXACT same and go 20-5 or 13-9 and so on down the starting five. So the kind of 'upside'/'downside' question is pretty meaningless. Of course if a player has a 20-1 record he'll virtually certainly have ptiched extremely well and in all likelihood if a pitcher has a 2-12 record he's not pitched very well. But it's only those kind of indicators that you get. To follow; Yes, if a starter gives up 1 run in 9 innings every start he'll win most games but you're told that by his era of 1.00 aren't you? Yes, if a starter gives up 10 runs in six innings he'll lose most games, but then you're told that by his era of 15.00 aren't you? However, if a starter has an era of 4.00 you've NO idea how many games he'll win or lose. Brad Penny had an era of 3.9 in 190 innings for the dodgers last year his record ? 7-9 Livian Hernandez had an era of 3.98 for the nationals in 240 innings. His record 15-10. I just object to the discussion of w/l's as if they're how a pitchers performance should be judged.

Bret Sabermetric Mar 30 2006 05:33 AM

Your objection has been noted and overruled, counselor. Let's proceed with the case of "Upside v. Downside."

duan Mar 30 2006 05:36 AM

I think an impartial judge would find in my favour ;)