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Early Rotation Set

Frayed Knot Mar 30 2006 09:24 AM

Monday Game 1 - Glavine Wed Game 2 - Zambrano Thurs Game 3 - Martinez Fri Game 4 - Trachsel Sat Game 5 - Glavine (on std rest due to off day Tues) Sun Game 6 - Bannister (who'll stay behind in Fla and start this Sunday to keep on track) Then, presumably, it would go pretty much in order (Z - M - T - G - B ... we need an mnemonic) after that as there aren't as many off days in April as usual.

Elster88 Mar 30 2006 09:26 AM

Tuesday is really going to suck if we lose Monday.

metirish Mar 30 2006 09:27 AM

Have to admit I am not very cahnfident in that rotation.

ABG Mar 30 2006 10:08 AM

So... 4/11-Zambrano 4/12-Pedro 4/13-Glavine 4/14-Trachsel 4/15-Bannister Or 4/11-Pedro 4/12-Glavine 4/13-Trachsel 4/14-Zambrano 4/15-Bannister ?

The Big O Apr 14 2006 07:20 AM

From Always Amazin'... ]Mike and the Dog unearthed some interesting news in their interview with Willie Randolph (interview available on WFAN's [url=http://www.wfan.com]homepage[/url]) yesterday. Regarding Victor Zambrano's return to the rotation, the Mets skipper said, "Trachsel is my fifth guy basically, so the fifth guy would get bumped anyway." When Russo challenged the idea, saying that Trachsel is more accomplished than Zambrano, Randolph responded defensively, saying "That's your opinion" and "I know my team better than you do." David Lennon in Newsday... ]Zambrano's place in the rotation has been under additional scrutiny this season because of the Mets' decision to trade Kris Benson and Jae Seo during the winter, then send Aaron Heilman to the bullpen at the end of spring training in order to keep Brian Bannister. The fact that his illness apparently bumped Steve Trachsel to the back of the rotation has been a source of some contention, too. Manager Willie Randolph, speaking on his weekly radio spot, said Wednesday that Trachsel is the No. 5 starter, which puts him two spots below where he originally planned to be. Before yesterday's game, Randolph tried to downplay his language, saying that it was just a number and Trachsel had not been demoted. "I just threw a number out there," Randolph said. "When you have the first two guys as Pedro [Martinez] and [Tom] Glavine, everyone else is just three, four, five." Still, there usually is some meaning to those assignments, and Trachsel, who will have waited eight days for tomorrow's start, seems to be the lowest priority. That's hard to believe with Zambrano's spotty history, and Randolph nearly yanked him from yesterday's game before he could log the five innings necessary for the win.

Bret Sabermetric Apr 14 2006 07:30 AM Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Apr 14 2006 07:50 AM

Maybe this belongs in the Willie Watch thread, but I really got a feel for WWSB's churlish personality in that interview. As with Matsui, WWSB is favoring Zambrano absurdly over Trachsel, who's clearly earned the deference he is not getting under WIllie in every way imaginable: MLB experience, winning MLB experience, age, longetivity as a Met, you name it. The only category he is outranked by Zambrano in is "length of front office hardon for the guy." I might buy that Willie doesn't think much of Zambrano personally, as I might buy it with Matsui as well, but the front office does and that's who's making out the lineup card. That's why I fault the size of Willie's small balls here. If he really doesn't like Matsui, or if he really thinks Trax is more deserving of deference than Victor In-Name-Only, then he needs to assert his views and go to the mat for his beliefs. And if he really thinks as much of Matsui and Zambrano as his playing time would indicate, well, that's exhibits A and B in the case to fire him now. OE: TYPOS

Rotblatt Apr 14 2006 07:45 AM

Stupid. Trachs isn't and has never been an ace, but he's an average #3 guy and a solid #4. Zambrano can't touch Trachs in terms of performance.

Johnny Dickshot Apr 14 2006 07:55 AM

If that's truly the case than might it also be intelligent to throw Trax against a tougher offense? I agree Willie is churlish with the media. I just think he doesn't much like sharing his true feelings, so he just says stuff thinking it will suffice, and then he gets mad when he's called on his answers because, of course, he was answering questions only out of obligation and wasn't necessarily preaching the truth. It's a complete opposite of Valentine, who I think often sensed that the interviewers were the ones with a boring tedious obligation, and always acted to answer the precise question they asked.

Bret Sabermetric Apr 14 2006 08:27 AM

Yeah, Bobby had a cool legalistic mind that would hone in on the precise literal element in questions, which could be oddly frustrating to his questioners. "Bobby, do you like Rick Reed in the first game of the series." "Yes, I like Rick a lot." "No, I mean, do you think he's going to win?" "I think Rick has a lifetime .514 chance of winning." "Do you think he'll be tired out from pitching 8 innings on Tuesday, is what I mean." "Pitching is always tiring." And so on.

Elster88 Apr 14 2006 08:43 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Apr 14 2006 08:46 AM

]As with Matsui, WWSB is favoring Zambrano absurdly over Trachsel, I don't think that the situations are the same. Trachsel is a better player in a hundred different ways than Zambrano, as you noted above. Who's better than Matsui on the current roster? Or last year's roster? Until there is someone to play instead of Matsui, it's hard to say that his playing time is being forced on Willie by the front office.

duan Apr 14 2006 08:45 AM

i'm not saying your wrong but if you look at the midrange Pecota predictions for Trachsel and Zambrano, they put Zambrano a "notch" ahead of Trachsel. The mean for trachsel in Wins above Replacement is 2.2 whereas Zambrano's on 3.0. Zambrano's also got higher breakout/improvement chances and lower collapse rates. Throw in the fact that the mets control Zambrano next year whereas Trachsel's a free agent and I see a reason why they'd see Zambrano as ahead of Trachsel on the depth chart. It's marginal and everything, but I can see the reasons why. On the other hand, PECOTA tends to be a little harsh on guys who lose a year to a bad back.

Elster88 Apr 14 2006 08:48 AM

duan your post is the perfect example of why to completely ignore PECOTA.

duan Apr 14 2006 09:07 AM

well Tracshel's lifetime era is 4.23, Zambrano's is 4.38 Tracshel's life time era+ [era vs league average] is 1.02, Zambrano's is 1.01 & Tracshel's going on 36 vs Zambrano's going on 31. If you're looking for 'potential upside' it'd be clear that you'd pick Zambrano (especially as he's a later convert to pitching).

Frayed Knot Apr 14 2006 09:32 AM

Part of this whole "problem" is that - as usual - M&MD made a bigger deal out of Willie's tossed-off answer than it probably warranted. Does Willie & co think more of Zamby than most of the rest of Met-dom does? ... Probably, and Peterson almost certainly. But Trax getting "bumped" for Zambrano consisted of delaying Trax's start by all of 2 days in order to get VZ his first start of the year. It's not like a Trax spot was negated entirely and, unless they're going to operate under the 'skip the 5th guy whenever the sked permits' principle (which I highly doubt), then the "number" each starter is assigned is virtually meaningless until if/when the playoffs crop up or maybe during the post A-S break stretch.

Johnny Dickshot Apr 14 2006 10:20 AM

In the mind of a conspiracy theorist, or Steve Trachsel's agent, perhaps sliding ST's pitching date a few days here and there will add up and ultimately be reflected in his incentive-heavy paychecks.

Bret Sabermetric Apr 14 2006 10:27 AM

Elster88 wrote: ]As with Matsui, WWSB is favoring Zambrano absurdly over Trachsel, I don't think that the situations are the same. Trachsel is a better player in a hundred different ways than Zambrano, as you noted above. Who's better than Matsui on the current roster? Or last year's roster? Until there is someone to play instead of Matsui, it's hard to say that his playing time is being forced on Willie by the front office. Well, "Starting pitcher" by necessity means there are always at least four current rivals on any given team, so of course they have viable competition for Zambrano's job that they might not have for Matsui's. He's not being compared to the four other regulars at his position, like Zambrano is. If there were just one starting pitcher's job, and they gave it to Zambrano, putting him out there for 162 games while Pedro, say, gave him a break in day games after night games sometimes, and Banister and Trax and Glavine were in AAA, I could make the same argument back to you: who's Zambrano's competition in that scenario? Pedro? He's a part timer. The three minor league guys? No track record yet. This is apples and oranges. But thanks for playing.

Elster88 Apr 14 2006 10:32 AM Edited 4 time(s), most recently on Apr 14 2006 10:39 AM

Remember all the crying you did yesterday about how everyone responds with hostility and doesn't speak to the substance of your posts? I'm trying here. But KC is right, everything you post is just a little (or a lot) condescending. If you have posted your exact post above, but left off the "Thanks for playing" line, then it would've been an impressive response. For the 100000th time, that's why people have a problem with you. Not because you are anti-Mets. Edit: Back to the substance of your post. If it's apples and oranges, why did you make the initial comparison between Kaz and Traxxx?

Yancy Street Gang Apr 14 2006 10:32 AM

When are Mike and the Mad Dog going to start griping about how Zambrano refuses to have Lo Duca as a catcher? Mightly fishy how Lo Duca always catches when Zambrano isn't pitching, but never catches when he does.

MadDog Apr 14 2006 10:35 AM

Yancy Street Gang wrote: When are Mike and the Mad Dog going to start griping about how Zambrano refuses to have Lo Duca as a catcher? Mightly fishy how Lo Duca always catches when Zambrano isn't pitching, but never catches when he does. It's gotta be a Latin thing, Mike! You can't have that kind of garbage on your team! It ruins the ballclub! If LoDuca's your starter, then you gotta play him! Every day! Even on days off! Make him go out there and squat in the dirt for three hours!

Bret Sabermetric Apr 14 2006 10:40 AM

Elster88 wrote: Remember all the crying you did yesterday about how everyone responds with hostility and doesn't speak to the substance of your posts? I'm trying here. But KC is right, everything you post is snide, snotty, and condescending. For the 100000th time, that's why people have a problem with you. Not because you are anti-Mets. I notice how you've dealt with the substance of my posts here. Good job. Very content oriented. Your constant harping on the way I post, rather than what I post--that isn'[t condescending? It's certainly easier to deal with how much I suck than trying to argue against my content, isn't it?

Elster88 Apr 14 2006 10:42 AM

Never mind.

Bret Sabermetric Apr 14 2006 10:50 AM

Sure. Just stop bringing up that shit, and I'll be happy to never mind.

Elster88 Apr 14 2006 10:54 AM

What shit? That you're hostile and condescending? Kind of hard to ignore. Edit: But you're right. By continuously bringing it up it's very repetitive on my part. It's pointless anyway. Consider it dropped.

Rotblatt Apr 14 2006 11:18 AM

I'm a fan of PECOTA but the WS difference between them is almost entirely due to innings pitched. They project Zambrano to 162.7 IP and Trachs to 123.3. Now, Trachs is coming off a bad back, and yes, he is turning 35 this year, but he's still been a hell of a lot more durable than Zambrano, who's averaged around 165 IP in his career as a starter. Trachs averaged only 17 IP fewer in the last three years, even WITH his abbreviated 2005. Zambrano's best ERA+ as a starter: 108 in 2003. Trachsel's 3-year average from 2002-2004: 111.7 Here's their predicted PECOTA rate stat breakdown: Zambrano 4.33 ERA, 1.45 WHIP (best since 2003), 5.9 K/9, 4.0 BB/9 (best since his rookie season), 0.8 HR/9 Trachsel 4.50 ERA (this would be his highest ERA since 2000), 1.37 WHIP, 4.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9 Trach's line is frankly bizarre. They project him to have pretty much the same WHIP, K/9, BB/9 & HR/9 as he's had since 2001, but ALSO think his ERA is going to jump up by over half a run. It might make sense if he were moving to a new ballpark or something, but as is, it seems very strange to me. I'm guessing Trachs is one of those outliers who consistently overperforms his peripherals, but maybe I'm missing something. Meanwhile, PECOTA predicts Zambrano to better his career BB/9 mark by 1. Now, he did manage to post the exact same BB/9 in 2005, but seemingly at the expense of base hits--9.4 H/9 in 2005, versus his career average of 7.6. PECOTA thinks he'll manage to keep his newfound control AND be less hittable--it predicts his H/9 will drop to 8.7. So basically, they expect Zambrano to take a step forward in 2006. Meanwhile, they expect Trachsel to stay the same pitcher he's been for the last three years (minus about 80 innings) but get unlucky. Anyway, to make a long story short, I still think we should be giving more starts to Trachs than Zambrano initially. Now, if Zambrano starts pitches the way he did in Spring Training, we'd want to make an adjustment, but that's a pretty big if . . .

Johnny Dickshot Apr 14 2006 11:23 AM

] I'm guessing Trachs is one of those outliers who consistently overperforms his peripherals, but maybe I'm missing something. No, I think that's right. Trax to me is one of those guys who for lack of a better explanation "knows how to pitch." When he's right, he's getting the opposition to swing at his pitch, limiting the damage, crafting a good start out of whatever he has that day. I can see where a guy like Zambrano, who purportedly has better "stuff" get a nod in OmarWillieland. The same idea that gave Ishii starts over Seo: They seem to wanna boil it all down to "talent" and be wrong on that count, rather than fail by being too touchy-feely.

seawolf17 Apr 14 2006 11:26 AM

Exactly. When Zambrano is "on," he's scary good. The problem is that you never have any clue when he's going to be "on" and when he's going to give up fourteen hits and eight walks in five innings. It's a risk/reward scenario: Zambrano's best days are going to be better than Trax's best days, but they both can be lit up.

Yancy Street Gang Apr 14 2006 11:31 AM

Zambrano reminds me in that way of Sid Fernandez. He may not turn out to be as good as Sid was, but you could never be sure if you'd see a good Sid or a bad Sid on any given outing. If the Mets should be fortunate enough to get to the postseason, I'll be very queasy on the day of any games (if any) that Victor will be starting.

Edgy DC Apr 14 2006 11:33 AM

Some of these formulae can be black and white in factoring in injury susceptibility. A guy can struggle with injuries for five years, but if he has one or two clean years, rather than dial-down his susceptility in the projections, they wipe his past slate clean and treat him like an iron man. In 2002, we all saw Pedro Astacio stumble terribly down the stretch after injury problems had hurt his previous seasons. But we saw one projectionist list him among the Mets team projected for five years down the road, and another posted by Duan, list him among greeen lights (relatively low risk) --- rather than yelow (medium risk) or green (high risk) --- as far as injury susceptibility. He pitched more or less a complete season, so he was considered fine. For my part, I think they're at a similar level, and I think Willie's position is defensible, though his statement is a slight to Trachsel. Trachsel missed most of last year with surgery. Zambrano missed most of spring and finished it with a sore Hammy. Zambrano gets skipped the first time through the rotation, Trachsel the second. It's all good from where I'm sitting.

Bret Sabermetric Apr 14 2006 12:06 PM

Edgy DC wrote: . It's all good from where I'm sitting. SIG LINE!!

Frayed Knot Apr 14 2006 12:57 PM

"Zambrano reminds me in that way of Sid Fernandez. He may not turn out to be as good as Sid was, but you could never be sure if you'd see a good Sid or a bad Sid on any given outing." Or even any given inning! VZ also has that capacity to switch from good to bad in the blink of an eye. Kinda like what Ishii pulled in a bunch of games last year. Always tempting you with good outings thru 4 ... before falling apart quickly.

duan Apr 14 2006 03:22 PM

by the way I wasn't saying for a second that Pecota was right, as i said at the outset, I'm just illustrating that i could see a reason why someone might be seeing Zambrano ahead of Trachsel. Anyone who isn't thinking of Brian Bannister as the 5th starter right now is nuts anyway. 2 starts does NOT make a season.