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Wily Mo Pena (and Victor. And David.) Get Projected

Rotblatt Mar 30 2006 06:56 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Mar 30 2006 08:12 PM

As I've mentioned before, Diaz & Pena are relatively comparable. They're the same age and have put up vaguely similar power numbers (their raw MLB SLG's are exactly the same & Diaz out-slugged Pena in the minors, although Pena had & has a better ISO). Now, Diaz also strikes out less, walks more and hits for average, so I tend to consider Diaz comparable to Pena. I am pretty much alone in this judgment, aside from a few other Mets fan boys, from what I can tell. Anyway, [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4913]BP[/url] just ran an article talking about Pena's future, using some rather specific criteria. As it happens, Diaz fits these criteria. ]To do this I created a list of all those seasons since 1955 where a hitter younger than 24 garnered 300 or more plate appearances and recorded a park adjusted Isolated Power (ISO) between 140% and 190% of league average. Check, check & check. Diaz was 23 last year, garnered over 300 PA (barely) and recorded a park adjusted ISO of around 141% of league average. Sweet. ]This gives us 180 total seasons ranging from Hank Aaron's 21 year-old season in 1955 through Pena, Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, and Jhonny Peralta in 2005 [what, no mention of Diaz?]. This list was then whittled down to 169 by excluding catchers, since the rigors of the position have a greater effect on career path. This removed Johnny Bench, Lance Parrish, Gary Carter, Ed Herrmann, Darrell Porter, Matt Nokes, Earl Williams, and Joe Torre, leaving 123 players represented in those 169 seasons. Here are some of the findings of author Dan Fox, using this pool of players: ]As you can see, the players in this group lowered their strikeout rates a bit, though they remained free swingers. They also raised their walk rates as they got into their early thirties. They also slightly increased their ISO relative to the league, but largely treaded water in the batting average department. As a group, by the age of 23 these players had almost reached their maximum power and batting average while they still had a bit to go to reach their optimum strikeout and walk rates. What is most encouraging, though, is that these players averaged 15.3 years and 6,390 plate appearances, with almost a third of them still active at the age of 37. Cool. ]Overall, this picture seems to indicate that hitters like Pena don’t necessarily tend to become more patient over time, although they do cut their strikeout rates and continue to put up good power numbers while maintaining their batting average. And the conclusion: ]As much as we love to wring every drop of insight out of the numbers, all players are, of course, individuals; the vagaries of personality, coaching, and fortune both good and bad all conspire to create the career path of young players like Wily Mo Pena. As a result, our conclusions must always be digested with a generous helping of salt. That said, given the history of players with similar profiles, it seems Red Sox fans have reason to be optimistic that Pena will enjoy a relatively long career. And although he may not hit the top of his comparable list a la Willie Stargell and instead fall somewhere in the Jessie Barfield range, with adequate playing time and patience, he’ll likely be a productive hitter for at least the next few years. Now, Diaz barely squeeked in to this study with his ISO, but the fact is, he did make the cut, and unlike Pena, he can hit for average, strikes out a bit less, and walks a bit more, which would, in my mind, weigh out the difference in ISO. For the hell of it, I emailed the author to ask him about Diaz and the lack of love by scouts & PECOTA (which considers Pena to have twice as much upside as Diaz). I'll let y'all know if I hear anything.

Johnny Dickshot Mar 30 2006 07:03 PM

Great.

metirish Mar 30 2006 07:48 PM

Ok can we not trade Diaz now Bret?

Bret Sabermetric Mar 30 2006 07:50 PM

Trade him? Hell, I want him to be the regular RFer in 2006, and Nady to be the 4th outfielder and backup !B man. What I don't want is for him to play half the season in AAA when he's shown he's a real MLB hitter.

metirish Mar 30 2006 07:53 PM

I know, just taking the piss, yeah him sitting or playing in AAA would be a waste.....is Nady still in that slump?

Rotblatt Mar 30 2006 08:01 PM

Oh, and the best part is REALLY that this is yet another way to demonstrate just how high Wright's ceiling is.

Edgy DC Mar 30 2006 10:01 PM

What they're saying is that Wily (and by extension, Victor) has a real good chance to become a high-end professional hitter. I think, without looking at numbers, that Wily Mo has a more severe platoon split than Victor --- which is, of course, a good thing if you're looking for a platoonist, not so much if you're looking for a full-timer. I still kind of like the idea of Victor Diaz as a Kevin Mitchell-type superutilityman. The main difference is that Mitchell, despite his paunch, was an aggressive, athletic guy, while Diaz strikes me as kind of a sad sack, and less likely to enthusastically fake it at positions that are irregular to him. If they were going to sneak him around, of course, they'd have done it during spring training. And, while the time was free, it might've been fun to see Willie Randolph throw some innings at second to Julio Franco.

MFS62 Mar 31 2006 12:05 PM

From the Baseball Prospectus transaction analysis page on the Mets for today... they go into Diaz versus Nady: " Xavier Nady has gone stone cold, and not in that happy anti-hero pro wrestling sort of way, but more along the lines of the godawful laugh-out-loud bad Brian Bosworth vehicle, Stone Cold. It would actually be a pretty happy result if Victor Diaz won the job away from Xavier Nady anyway: Diaz would get 400-500 plate appearances, Nady could be freed up for spot duty in the infield corners, spot starts against lefties, and pinch-hitting, and Chavez could stick to pinch-running and defensive substitution work. I don't mean to put Nady down, but Diaz could end up being the sort of hitter who helps the Mets as a regular for the next five years, and that should be cultivated. If Willie Randolph is flexible enough to do all of that this year, we should all be impressed. " Later

Edgy DC Mar 31 2006 12:15 PM

By the way, as Nady can and has played all three outfield posiitons and first and third, I like the idea of him as superutility guy also. It's just that Diaz has experience at second --- a position I don't see Nady faking even on his best Franco-Californian day --- and that's the Mets weakest spot.

Bret Sabermetric Mar 31 2006 12:20 PM

Edgy DC wrote: By the way, as Nady can and has played all three outfield posiitons and first and third, I like the idea of him as superutility guy also. It's just that Diaz has experience at second --- a position I don't see Nady faking even on his best Franco-Californian day --- and that's the Mets weakest spot. This starting to sound like CYA--Nady's going to win the fulltime job over Diaz, not because he's the better player, but because if Nady's your utility guy then the Mets traded Cameron, a starting 30 HR former GG CFer, for a utility guy. No way is that going to happen. The fix is in.

Yancy Street Gang Mar 31 2006 12:25 PM

Generally, I don't think CYA plays as big a factor in these decisions as Bret believes, but in this case I'll concede he may have a point. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Nady had a leg up in this competition because of the deal that was made. Or because Omar had made comments about how Nady was going to be the Mets future in right field.

Rotblatt Mar 31 2006 01:13 PM

I agree. There was no competition for RF--it was handed to Nady outright. Honestly, I think Nady might be as good as Diaz this year (especially if he's able to go with the pitch and send balls to the opposite field as he did yesterday). Nady has never really been given a shot--he was a wasted asset before coming to the Mets. The problem is that Diaz is en route to becoming a wasted asset as well, and if Diaz has bigger upside (which I think he does), we should use him as much as possible. In my ideal world, we'd see Diaz get the bulk of playing time in RF, with Nady starting there maybe 1 or 2 times per week, then filling in for either Cliff or Delgado maybe maybe once per week. IMO, we've got the offense to rest Delgado & Floyd periodically, and we should capitilize on that. If Diaz gets between 400 & 500 at bats, and Nady gets around 300, I'll be a happy camper. That's IF they perform as expected, which for me would be a .800 - .850 OPS from Diaz and a .780 - .820 OPS from Nady.

Edgy DC Mar 31 2006 01:17 PM

I think Julio Franco is going to spell Delgado most often. But there is generally enough work for four good outfielders, especaillay when one of them plays first and third, and another plays first and maybe second. (Yes, I know that ship has sailed.)