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The Outlier Quiz

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 04:44 PM

Some writer determined that Dontrelle Willis's 2005 season was the biggest outlier season in baseball in the last 30 years -- defined as a truly amazing season that wasn't even close, qualitatively, to any other season that athlete had. Of course, everyone's best season is, by definiiton, greater than the rest of that athlete's other seasons. But the writer was looking for career years that were as far apart statistically from the rest of the athlete's body of work, as possible. The author determined the top 30 outlier baseball seasons of the last 30 years. Two Mets-connected seasons appear on that list. Name the players along with the year in question. One guess per post. No two in a rowing.

G-Fafif May 29 2018 04:56 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Bernard Gilkey 1996?

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 05:05 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Yes!

G-Fafif May 29 2018 05:08 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Lance Johnson 1996?

G-Fafif May 29 2018 05:09 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

BTW, is "Mets-connected" your way of saying not necessarily two Mets seasons?

Centerfield May 29 2018 05:11 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

I would guess '96 Todd Hundley.

Edgy MD May 29 2018 05:11 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

G-Fafif wrote: BTW, is "Mets-connected" your way of saying not necessarily two Mets seasons? And in that spirit, I'll guess Joe Torre, 1971.

G-Fafif May 29 2018 05:12 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Edgy MD wrote: G-Fafif wrote: BTW, is "Mets-connected" your way of saying not necessarily two Mets seasons? And in that spirit, I'll guess Joe Torre, 1971. Last 30 years. My non-Mets season guess is Kevin Mitchell, 1989.

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 05:13 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

G-Fafif wrote: BTW, is "Mets-connected" your way of saying not necessarily two Mets seasons? Sharp eye, you. It's definitely my way of saying something that I thought needed to be phrased that way, or sort of that way. That's not random phrasing. And nope on One-Dog.

Edgy MD May 29 2018 05:14 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Good point. Joe McEwing, 2001.

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 05:15 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Centerfield wrote: I would guess '96 Todd Hundley. Nope. Jeez does everyone here think that the '96 Mets were comprised of the most fantastically outlier players ever?

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 05:16 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Edgy MD wrote: G-Fafif wrote: BTW, is "Mets-connected" your way of saying not necessarily two Mets seasons? And in that spirit, I'll guess Joe Torre, 1971. Nope. We're looking for seasons from the last 30 years. And Torre didn't play for the Mets in '71.

HahnSolo May 29 2018 05:18 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Dickey 2012?

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 05:20 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Edgy MD wrote: Good point. Joe McEwing, 2001. Not on the list. The author was looking for outlier seasons that were all-star or MVP or Cy Young caliber.

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 05:21 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

HahnSolo wrote: Dickey 2012? Nope, but good guess, I would think.

John Cougar Lunchbucket May 29 2018 05:22 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Pat Mahomes, 2000?

G-Fafif May 29 2018 05:23 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

On the Mets-connected train, Kevin Mitchell's 1989 season (asked above)?

G-Fafif May 29 2018 05:25 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Without having read the article that inspired the quiz, I'm thinking Hundley and Johnson and even Dickey had seasons that echoed or foretold the years we recognize as their breakouts. Gilkey had never done anything like his 1996. I was gonna guess Dykstra's 1993, but he had a top-notch season in 1990 as well.

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 05:27 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

batmagadanleadoff wrote: HahnSolo wrote: Dickey 2012? i Nope, but good guess, I would think. Maybe not such a great guess, on second thought. Dickey was pretty terrific in 2010 and 2011. The players on this list have huge gaps between their best seasons and the rest of their careers.

Centerfield May 29 2018 05:30 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

G-Fafif wrote: Without having read the article that inspired the quiz, I'm thinking Hundley and Johnson and even Dickey had seasons that echoed or foretold the years we recognize as their breakouts. Gilkey had never done anything like his 1996. I was gonna guess Dykstra's 1993, but he had a top-notch season in 1990 as well. Yeah, I looked it up and the Hundley guess is pretty terrible. '96 wasn't even Hundley's best year in terms of OPS. '95 was also very solid, and he had a very good year (though injury shortened) with the Dodgers in 2000. I think I forgot Hundley ended up on the Dodgers.

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 05:31 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

G-Fafif wrote: On the Mets-connected train, Kevin Mitchell's 1989 season (asked above)? I thought I answered this one but my post apparently disappeared. Gremlins! Mitchell '89, like Torre '71, didn't play for the Mets. And on top of that, Mitchell '89 didn't make the author's list, irrespective of what team he played for in '89.

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 05:32 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Pat Mahomes, 2000? Get that shit outta here.

seawolf17 May 29 2018 05:32 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

The two that immediately come to mind are Brady Anderson's 1995(96?) 50-HR season, and Davey Johnson's 1969 season, but neither of those fit the qualifications.

G-Fafif May 29 2018 05:33 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Apologies for possibly violating the code of consecutive guesses, but just wanted to throw Dave Magadan's outstanding 1990 into the conversation. Probably not high-profile enough to be the answer, but it really was the outlier of his otherwise "oh yeah, him" career. It was certainly the best Dave Magadan-style season one could have imagined.

G-Fafif May 29 2018 05:34 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Can "Mets-connected" be expanded upon without giving away the answer?

G-Fafif May 29 2018 05:35 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

seawolf17 wrote: Davey Johnson's 1969 season I thought of that, too, in the pre-30 years ago, though it was 1973.

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 05:38 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

G-Fafif wrote: Can "Mets-connected" be expanded upon without giving away the answer? I've tried to when I wrote the first post. This is the best I could do. Did I provide the best possible phrased clue or do the limits of my abilities prevent me from doing better? Beats me. I dunno? I could rephrase that, but I think I'd be making the answer a lot easier to solve. Maybe that in itself is a clue.

cooby May 29 2018 05:40 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Mike Scott ‘86

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 05:44 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz Edited 1 time(s), most recently on May 29 2018 05:47 PM

cooby wrote: Mike Scott ‘86 ' I love Mike Scott. But '86 was more than 30 years ago; Scott wasn't a Met that season; and '86 wasn't as much of an outlier as the other seasons on the author's list. Scott had a run of five or six straight seasons where he was one of the league's top 10 pitchers every year.

cooby May 29 2018 05:46 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Ah! On the 30 years thing. I thought perhaps as an exMet he was your connection :)

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 05:48 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

cooby wrote: Ah! On the 30 years thing. I thought perhaps as an exMet he was your connection :) The remaining answer played for the Mets during the outlier season in question.

G-Fafif May 29 2018 05:55 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Ah! On the 30 years thing. I thought perhaps as an exMet he was your connection :) The remaining answer played for the Mets during the outlier season in question. Dykstra 1993 as alluded to above?

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 05:57 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz Edited 1 time(s), most recently on May 29 2018 05:57 PM

G-Fafif wrote: Apologies for possibly violating the code of consecutive guesses, but just wanted to throw Dave Magadan's outstanding 1990 into the conversation. Probably not high-profile enough to be the answer, but it really was the outlier of his otherwise "oh yeah, him" career. It was certainly the best Dave Magadan-style season one could have imagined. Nope on Magadan. Without studying either the author's methodology or player stats, and just on a "feel it out" basis, I would've thought that Magadan's 1990 was a bigger outlier than the as yet unsolved answer to this quiz.

seawolf17 May 29 2018 05:57 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

According to B-R, Dykstra had a 6.6 WAR in 1993 -- but an 8.9 WAR in 1990. (!!)

Edgy MD May 29 2018 05:58 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Yoenis Céspedes, 2015.

cooby May 29 2018 05:58 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

2000 jay Payton

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 05:58 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

seawolf17 wrote: According to B-R, Dykstra had a 6.6 WAR in 1993 -- but an 8.9 WAR in 1990. (!!) And so this post answers FAFIF's question about Dykstra.

G-Fafif May 29 2018 05:59 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

seawolf17 wrote: According to B-R, Dykstra had a 6.6 WAR in 1993 -- but an 8.9 WAR in 1990. (!!) Also as alluded to above, I knew his 1990 was good, though I wouldn't have suspected it was THAT good, let alone better than his 1993. Allegedly the Phillies offered him back to the Mets after his indifferent Phillie stint in 1989. Would have been helpful.

G-Fafif May 29 2018 06:01 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Kevin Elster's atypically strong 1996 with Texas?

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 06:01 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Edgy MD wrote: Yoenis Céspedes, 2015. Winner, winner. Chicken Dinner. I suppose you can now figure out why I phrased the top post the way I did.

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 06:03 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

G-Fafif wrote: seawolf17 wrote: According to B-R, Dykstra had a 6.6 WAR in 1993 -- but an 8.9 WAR in 1990. (!!) Also as alluded to above, I knew his 1990 was good, though I wouldn't have suspected it was THAT good, let alone better than his 1993. Allegedly the Phillies offered him back to the Mets after his indifferent Phillie stint in 1989. Would have been helpful. That woulda been some outfield for a while -- Mitchell LF, Dykstra CF, Strawberry RF.

Edgy MD May 29 2018 06:04 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Yoenis Céspedes, 2015. Winner, winner. Chicken Dinner. I suppose you can now figure out why I phrased the top post the way I did. Or the opposite. I figured out the answer once I figured out why you phrased it the way you did. Somewhere, Mazzilli 1979 weeps for recognition.

cooby May 29 2018 06:04 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

?

G-Fafif May 29 2018 06:05 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Ah! On the 30 years thing. I thought perhaps as an exMet he was your connection :) The remaining answer played for the Mets during the outlier season in question. I kept going back to '86 from the Mike Scott reference. Misunderstanding on my part. Didn't realize Cespedes's 2015 was such a departure from his norm. I had been thinking earlier today that his five weeks of thunder have certainly resonated in our expectations for the years that have followed.

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 06:11 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

batmagadanleadoff wrote: seawolf17 wrote: According to B-R, Dykstra had a 6.6 WAR in 1993 -- but an 8.9 WAR in 1990. (!!) And so this post answers FAFIF's question about Dykstra. Plus, Dykstra in 1993, like Elster three years later, never played for the Mets.

Centerfield May 29 2018 06:14 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Are they counting his entire 2015 or just his Mets-related part? He had an .870 OPS overall in 2015. He had a higher OPS in both 2016 and 2017. And another season at .861 in his rookie season with Oakland.

G-Fafif May 29 2018 06:15 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

batmagadanleadoff wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: seawolf17 wrote: According to B-R, Dykstra had a 6.6 WAR in 1993 -- but an 8.9 WAR in 1990. (!!) And so this post answers FAFIF's question about Dykstra. Plus, Dykstra in 1993, like Elster three years later, never played for the Mets. "Mets-connected" was a hang-up here as well. Didn't comprehend it meant partial season as a Met.

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 06:21 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Here's the article link: https://pudding.cool/2018/04/one-hit-wonders/ Two other one time Mets made the list, though not for Mets connected seasons-- Hideo Nomo and Cliff Floyd.

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 06:23 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Centerfield wrote: Are they counting his entire 2015 or just his Mets-related part? He had an .870 OPS overall in 2015. He had a higher OPS in both 2016 and 2017. And another season at .861 in his rookie season with Oakland. Whole season. Because Yo's 2015 wasn't entirely as a Met, I phrased the top post the way I did.

cooby May 29 2018 06:23 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Thanks for explanation! That makes sense

batmagadanleadoff May 29 2018 06:24 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

cooby wrote: Thanks for explanation! That makes sense You're welcome. I guess.

G-Fafif May 29 2018 06:32 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Here's the article link: https://pudding.cool/2018/04/one-hit-wonders/ Two other one time Mets made the list, though not for Mets connected seasons-- Hideo Nomo and Cliff Floyd. Andres Torres (2012 Met) and Rick Wilkins (1998 pre-Piazza Met placeholder) also made the list. Wouldn't have guessed them either.

Centerfield May 29 2018 06:33 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

It's not clear what method he is using to rank his athletes. 2015 Ces hit 35 HR's and had an .870 OPS. 2016 Ces hit 31 HR's and had an .884 OPS.

seawolf17 May 29 2018 06:49 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

By his definition - one season inside the top 20, with no other seasons inside the top 50 in WAR - Yo counts, technically. But boy, Franklin Gutierrez's 2009 season was a big middle finger, wasn't it?

smg58 May 29 2018 07:47 PM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Where would Ollie Perez in 2004 rank? (He was a Pirate at the time, but it certainly counts as Mets-related.)

MFS62 May 30 2018 01:40 AM Re: The Outlier Quiz

Terry Leach didn't make the list? OE: Oops, 31 years ago. (1987) Later

batmagadanleadoff May 31 2018 04:57 AM Re: The Outlier Quiz

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Can "Mets-connected" be expanded upon without giving away the answer? I've tried to when I wrote the first post. This is the best I could do. Did I provide the best possible phrased clue or do the limits of my abilities prevent me from doing better? Beats me. I dunno? I could rephrase that, but I think I'd be making the answer a lot easier to solve. Maybe that in itself is a clue. Here's the re-write: "Two of the players on the author's top 30 list played for the Mets during their outlier seasons. Name them." Better, and better late than never. But if I'd wrote it that way, I never woulda hadda explain myself, thus giving more clues, and youse might of never gotten Cespedes.