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Hypothesis: Jay Bruce Sucks.

A Boy Named Seo Jun 04 2018 08:31 PM

The purpose of this post will be to test they hypothesis that "Jay Bruce Sucks". He could certainly start bunting against the shift, which would help with his BA and OBP some, and maybe the defenses would stop shifting on him as often and once in a while he could hit without 7 defenders on the right side. That seems a very unlikely outcome for him, though. Just because, I don't know why. #Science Digging deeper, StatCast data shows that his average exit velocity is actually up this year from 88.6 to 88.8 MPH (Great Scott!). Sadly, that's where the good news ends. Though his EV is about the same, he is not hitting balls hard as often, as his hard percentage is down bigly from 39.1 to 36.8%. He is also barreling far fewer balls, his rate of 6.9% is down from 10.7% a year ago. So StatCast does seem to back the hypothesis that "Jay Bruce Sucks" and using this data, I would recommend to Jay Bruce that from now on he should hit balls better and more often. You're welcome, Jay. As I prepared to look at his batted ball stats, I thought for sure his ground ball percentage would have increased, but that's not the case, it's actually down slightly from 32.5 to 31.9%. It's his line drive percentage that's lept from 20.8 to 25.7% meaning his fly ball percentage (the types of balls Jay Bruce should be hitting to avoid all this theorized sucking) has dropped fairly substantially from 46.7 a year ago to 42.4%. His BABIP is a low (but not obscenely low) .268, so we can assume a few more of those extra line drives should drop for hits going forward, but that's all this crystal ball sees. Using his batted ball data, I would recommend to Jay Bruce that going forward he hit more fly balls that go over the fence. In conclusion, Jay Bruce does, in fact, suck and will continue to suck for all eternity.

Centerfield Jun 04 2018 08:44 PM Re: Hypothesis: Jay Bruce Sucks.

Wait, am I reading your post right? He's hitting more line drives? Cuz I don't watch all the games, but I think I've seen him hit like two.

seawolf17 Jun 04 2018 08:46 PM Re: Hypothesis: Jay Bruce Sucks.

I would recommend to Jay Bruce that from now on he should hit balls better and more often. You're welcome, Jay. BREAKING: ABNS named New York Mets assistant batting coach. In all honesty, I wonder if Bruce is the kind of guy who just got old quick. I mean, sometimes guys are done by their early 30s. It happens. Look at his similar batters on B-R (taking Reggie out of the equation as an outlier): Tom Brunansky - out of baseball at 33 Darryl Strawberry - didn't have a real, full, productive season after 29 Dean Palmer - last productive season was at age 31 Roger Maris - last productive season was at age 31, then lingered for two more seasons and was gone at 33 Dale Murphy - was on a HOF track until age 31 I know it's a different time, and I know I'm cherry picking a bit here. But still.

A Boy Named Seo Jun 04 2018 08:48 PM Re: Hypothesis: Jay Bruce Sucks.

Centerfield wrote: Wait, am I reading your post right? He's hitting more line drives? Cuz I don't watch all the games, but I think I've seen him hit like two. Yes. Almost 5% more line drives than last year. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?p ... battedball

Edgy MD Jun 04 2018 08:51 PM Re: Hypothesis: Jay Bruce Sucks.

I think the "barrelling up" line is indicative. I see a lot of well struck drives not coming out as hard as they should be from a well-timed swing. He's pulling outside balls and hitting them partially off the end of the bat. Apart from recommending he bunt like a fiend, I'd also suggest he might consider moving a few inches closer to the plate.

Benjamin Grimm Jun 04 2018 08:51 PM Re: Hypothesis: Jay Bruce Sucks.

They could be soft line drives right to an infielder.

A Boy Named Seo Jun 04 2018 08:53 PM Re: Hypothesis: Jay Bruce Sucks.

I would recommend to Jay Bruce that from now on he should hit balls better and more often. You're welcome, Jay. BREAKING: ABNS named New York Mets assistant batting coach. In all honesty, I wonder if Bruce is the kind of guy who just got old quick. I mean, sometimes guys are done by their early 30s. It happens. Look at his similar batters on B-R (taking Reggie out of the equation as an outlier): Tom Brunansky - out of baseball at 33 Darryl Strawberry - didn't have a real, full, productive season after 29 Dean Palmer - last productive season was at age 31 Roger Maris - last productive season was at age 31, then lingered for two more seasons and was gone at 33 Dale Murphy - was on a HOF track until age 31 I know it's a different time, and I know I'm cherry picking a bit here. But still. Maybe he is getting old fast. I love the StatCast stuff and would be more worried if his average exit velocity was lower, but I thought his whole deal last season was that he got his fly ball swing dialed in? Odd to see him hitting so fewer fly balls and I think that hard hit % is worrisome. #Pray4Jay

Vic Sage Jun 04 2018 08:54 PM Re: Hypothesis: Jay Bruce Sucks.

I recommend he stop having plantar fasciitis. It hurts like a motherfucker.

Centerfield Jun 04 2018 08:57 PM Re: Hypothesis: Jay Bruce Sucks.

I mean, he's gotta bunt right? These are not just shifts, they are ridiculous shifts that he is facing. I feel like eventually someone's going to start bunting against shifts all the time and end up with a .600 OBP. Then they'll stop shifting on him. Then everyone else will do it. Then shifts will go away. Then you'll tell your grandkids about that period of time in the 20-teens when batters rolled ball after ball into the shift and they'll say "Grandpa, were people really stupid then?" before teleporting away and posting a holographic replay of the conversation on their current form of social media.

A Boy Named Seo Jun 04 2018 08:58 PM Re: Hypothesis: Jay Bruce Sucks.

A nice primer on barrels for anyone interested ---> https://www.mlb.com/news/new-statcast-m ... -201699298

A Boy Named Seo Jun 04 2018 09:00 PM Re: Hypothesis: Jay Bruce Sucks.

Centerfield wrote: I mean, he's gotta bunt right? These are not just shifts, they are ridiculous shifts that he is facing. I feel like eventually someone's going to start bunting against shifts all the time and end up with a .600 OBP. Then they'll stop shifting on him. Then everyone else will do it. Then shifts will go away. Then you'll tell your grandkids about that period of time in the 20-teens when batters rolled ball after ball into the shift and they'll say "Grandpa, were people really stupid then?" before teleporting away and posting a holographic replay of the conversation on their current form of social media. Yeah I think he does need to bunt. Regardless of what kind of slump he's in, the team is sucking and could absolutely use some base runners. The coaches in the NBA stop doing the Hack-a-Shaq thing after the guy they keep fouling makes a couple free throws. Bunt a couple times, see what they do.

A Boy Named Seo Jun 04 2018 09:08 PM Re: Hypothesis: Jay Bruce Sucks.

Vic Sage wrote: I recommend he stop having plantar fasciitis. It hurts like a motherfucker. This, too. And the back strain. Though he only missed like a half a game due to the back, I wonder if something's hurting him.

bmfc1 Jun 04 2018 10:45 PM Re: Hypothesis: Jay Bruce Sucks.

Mickey said yesterday that Bruce is healthy and as we learned from the "pressure of New York" comment, he'll find an excuse if he can. Bruce will be traded in July to a team that will take his contract and Sandy will take a AA reliever who never helps the Mets. And then he'll get a few big hits and we'll go "What the hell?"

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jun 05 2018 12:18 AM Re: Hypothesis: Jay Bruce Sucks.

Vic Sage wrote: I recommend he stop having plantar fasciitis. It hurts like a motherfucker. this is my hypothesis as well. not that he wouldnt have been due for a down season, or that he hadn't had prolonged slumps before but I think he's playing with some pain and just isn't Jay Bruce-ing like he oughta. I think he's trying to play through it and it's begun to impact the rest of his body as the back bone is connected to the foot bone or something.

smg58 Jun 05 2018 10:30 AM Re: Hypothesis: Jay Bruce Sucks.

Line drives into a shift might not be all that helpful. And a .268 BABIP against a shift is not unlucky; Granderson and Duda were lower than that last year, and Bruce was at .274 last year and .266 the year before. He's run hot and cold before. I see no reason to think this time is different. The problem is that in the best case scenario -- Cespedes is healthy, he and Conforto are both playing well -- he's our fourth best outfielder. Maybe you can play him at first, but there's no guarantee he's better than what we have (either in Queens or in the pipeline), especially when defense is factored in. I think this year will be a seller's market instead of a buyer's one, and he seems the most obvious guy to sell. Of course, it would be nice if he got some hits in the meantime.

Fman99 Jun 05 2018 10:37 AM Re: Hypothesis: Jay Bruce Sucks.

He's haunted by the ghost of Jeromy Burnitz, who may or may not actually be dead.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jun 05 2018 12:32 PM Re: Hypothesis: Jay Bruce Sucks.

Barrels or no... Isn't this more theory than hypothesis? Also also... Isn't Bruce's profile-- minus the walks-- EXACTLY what got Duda ritually murdered by a certain segment of the talk-radio/internet-loudmouth crowd?

seawolf17 Jun 05 2018 12:36 PM Re: Hypothesis: Jay Bruce Sucks.

bmfc1 wrote: Mickey said yesterday that Bruce is healthy and as we learned from the "pressure of New York" comment, he'll find an excuse if he can. Bruce will be traded in July to a team that will take his contract and Sandy will take a AA reliever who never helps the Mets. And then he'll get a few big hits and we'll go "What the hell?" He's got two more years on this deal. He's not going anywhere until next summer at the earliest.