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Contending in 2019

Centerfield Jul 11 2018 06:38 PM

So Ricco is on record saying that the Mets can contend in 2019. I tend to agree with this too. There are already many good pieces in place here, starting with deGrom and Syndergaard obviously. But the only way I see them seriously contending is to open up the payroll. Another round of Bruce/Vargas/Swarzak/Frazier is going to put us right back here again next year. If there was any question about it last winter, all such doubts should be erased by now. The thing is, they are talking about dealing Wheeler and Matz. If that happens, who the hell do we start next year? Are they serious about signing free agents to fill 3/5 of the rotation, rebuild the offense, eat the salaries of Bruce/Vargas/Swarzak and completely rebuild the bullpen? I don't know. I mean, it certainly can be done. I just don't see the Wilpons signing on for it.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jul 11 2018 06:44 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Mets have pitchers. Generally speaking, I'd risk losing Wheels or Matz and gamble on Dunn or Peterson next year.

batmagadanleadoff Jul 11 2018 06:50 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Sure the Mets could contend next year, but all I see are questionmarks. Who knows what Conforto is? He suffered a career ending injury last year that could easily lower a player's ceiling. Cespedes'll be another year from the wrong side of his peak. And deGrom and Syndergaard aren't nearly enough. Yogi Berra's Mets had the best staff in baseball and every team, even the worst ones, have some star power. See, Trout, Mike.

d'Kong76 Jul 11 2018 06:56 PM Re: Contending in 2019

There's rumors today about Machado going to Yanks if they'll part with a gem or two. Mets rumors are about speculation if Gagnon will get another shot at a start. It's like two different universes.

Benjamin Grimm Jul 11 2018 07:08 PM Re: Contending in 2019

I agree with Centerfield. The Mets can contend in 2019, but they have to be smart and lucky and willing to spend big. I think Jay Bruce is their biggest albatross. He has one more year on his contract than Vargas does, and if the Mets feel that they need to carry him on their roster because of his salary he takes up a more precious roster slot, given that there's less room for position players these days. I'd rather ditch him and replace him with someone eight years younger, accepting the risk that he'll have a comeback season next year somewhere else. I don't want to lose deGrom or Syndergaard. After them, and assuming the Mets want to keep Nimmo, Conforto, and Rosario, their most tradeable guys who aren't in their walk years are probably Matz, Wheeler, and Flores. I'd hate to lose Wilmer, but a package of Wheeler and Flores might return somebody really good. For the record, I don't expect the Mets to be much of a contender in 2019. But it could happen, and I hope it does. I will enter the offseason feeling quite skeptical.

Ceetar Jul 11 2018 07:11 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Centerfield wrote: But the only way I see them seriously contending is to open up the payroll. Another round of Bruce/Vargas/Swarzak/Frazier is going to put us right back here again next year. If there was any question about it last winter, all such doubts should be erased by now. I mean, that depends. If they get the career/recent lines from Vargas and Swarzak and Frazier, that'd actually be fine. The Mets major issue this season is that none of their prospects panned out, from a Smith/Rosario and even Conforto right now, and all their bullpen moves bombed. But even some of the bullpen moves they were rumored to make, or 'cost more', bombed. the same with almost all of the non-Vargas SP guys. And so they put two of their starting depth guys in the bullpen, but they actually had/have more rotation depth than most teams. Sometimes things spiral and make its seem worse than it is. But the real sticking point is probably Rosario. You can find a decent stick at 1B. you've got outfielders even if Conforto isn't awesome. but a good defending SS with at least some offensive ability? damn, it hurts to lose that. But there's still a chance he can be good. 2019 is going to look a lot different than 2018, no matter what happens. But go after another big hitting star. Preferably infield of course, as Harper/OF is kinda fullish? So Machado. Try to get Machado. Hopefully he'll move back to third and isn't actually a malcontent and insists on playing a bad SS. He's not Jeter.

Benjamin Grimm Jul 11 2018 07:16 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Machado sounds like he's pretty intent on playing shortstop. I don't imagine that the Mets, even if they're willing to spend big, will the most appealing option for Machado given how the last two years have gone, but who knows? I'd like to at least see them in there trying.

Ashie62 Jul 11 2018 07:21 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Contend i 2019? Dump the following. By Trade Cabrera Plawecki Syndergaard Frazier Conforto ( he just aint that good) Swarzak Familia We have soo many horrid contracts to eat that I don't see them contending any time soon Oh, Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario. Those are our building blocks, right? Dear lord

metsmarathon Jul 11 2018 07:25 PM Re: Contending in 2019

my god. i just clicked over to bbref to look at the mets salary situation for 2019. there's not a single damned player under actual signed contract for next year (meaning i'm not including any arbitration or pre-arbitration players) that would make you think, "yeah, i'd sign him for that money for next year" cespedes $29M wright $15M bruce $14M lagares $9M - this might be the most reasonable of the damned bunch! frazier $9M swarzak $8.5M vargas $8M that's a whole hell of a lot of money to spend in return for a bunch of negative and near-zero WAR. sheesh.

smg58 Jul 11 2018 08:12 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Competing next year will be impossible without at least a $25M bump in payroll. And you still have to hope everybody stays healthy and performs to realistic expectations. The Mets have gotten very, very little of either this year. Very few people thought the extensions to Wright and Cespedes were bad ideas at the time. I certainly didn't. As far as the rest of that list goes: With Bruce, you try to swap him for a comparable player/contract (Mark Melancon? Zack Cozart?) that fills a greater need. Somebody might take a flyer on Lagares because of his defense, and we need to start clearing out the guys who just get hurt too much. You have to hope Frazier stays healthy and bounces back, but as I've said before, I think the league has started to figure out how to respond to that hitting style. The 2017 Swarzak would have been a great addition. I don't think counting pennies was the problem there (Addison Reed has fallen off a cliff the last month, so he wouldn't have bailed us out any). If anything, it was not recognizing that the real bargains were guys like Anthony Rondon and Tony Watson who were good pitchers coming off down years. As it stands, you have to hope Swarzak returns to form, because bailing on him would just eat money. Vargas -- even if healthy, we have multiple better options for the rotation. And a winning rotation has Matz and Wheeler (or perhaps Lugo) at 4 and 5, not 3 and 4. You hope he pitches well enough the rest of the way that you have a better option than DFAing him. The one big contract I regret not going for this offseason is Lorenzo Cain. I would have hesitated giving him five years because defensive value tends to vanish faster than offensive value, but he's been worth it for the Brewers. We're glad we didn't get Darvish. Arrieta has pitched decently, but while "decent" would have helped us we would have been paying for quite a bit more than that (and his K rate scares me). JD Martinez is all that and then some with the bat, but his natural position is DH and I just don't see how he'd have fit.

Ceetar Jul 11 2018 08:22 PM Re: Contending in 2019

smg58 wrote: Competing next year will be impossible without at least a $25M bump in payroll. And you still have to hope everybody stays healthy and performs to realistic expectations. The Mets have gotten very, very little of either this year. . I mean, there's a little either or. You need the 25 or so to compensate for the not-healthy not-performing aspects of it. Unless you do manage to shift around some players like Bruce for different pieces, I dunno. Or add ons. Like trade Wheeler and Nimmo for Votto or someone but they have to take Bruce too and then sign Harper?

Ceetar Jul 11 2018 08:25 PM Re: Contending in 2019

The other thing with Anthony is that it's been a minuscule 15.1 IP of which he was at least partially injured with an absurd HR% and a high BABIP. Him suddenly being a useful reliever again next year would be the least surprising thing that could happen.

Benjamin Grimm Jul 11 2018 08:39 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Yeah, I definitely haven't given up on Swarzak yet. And I was thinking similar thoughts about trading Bruce. I remember when the Mets had to take Derek Bell off the Astros hands in order to get Mike Hampton. I'm not sure if there's such a deal out there for the Mets to make, but they might as well try. I'm sure someone would take Bruce if it was necessary to get deGrom, but would they do so for someone like Wheeler? The other difference is that Bell was going into the final year of his contract, while Bruce still has two more.

Edgy MD Jul 11 2018 08:46 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Dexter Fowler is looking like more of a load to the Cardinals than any two of Bruce, Vargas, and Frazier put together. They can trade one of them to the Cards along with a Callahan/Rhame-level reliever for Fowler and a big sexy prospect. Not advocating, just saying. Mets aren't the only ones with a cross or two to bear.

smg58 Jul 12 2018 12:09 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Ashie62 wrote: Contend i 2019? Dump the following. By Trade Cabrera Plawecki Syndergaard Frazier Conforto ( he just aint that good) Swarzak Familia We have soo many horrid contracts to eat that I don't see them contending any time soon Oh, Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario. Those are our building blocks, right? Dear lord Conforto was better last year than Nimmo is this year. And he worked hard to get back two months before anybody thought he'd be back. In 20/20 hindsight, he and the Mets would have been better off waiting. Part of the reason why I'm not bothered by the time that Cespedes/Syndergaard/Bruce are taking to get back is that maybe, if you handle this stint on the DL the right way, they won't keep going back. I think any realistic hope of at least being respectable next year (or the year after that) includes getting something close to the 2017 Conforto. Maybe the offseason will do his shoulder some good. Regarding Smith and Rosario: Smith went through the minors hitting extra base hits to all sides of the field, and now he's hitting everything into the shift. He has to unlearn a few things. I'm not sure whose responsibility that ultimately was, but it was a bad mistake and now Smith is a mess. Rosario is finally showing some signs of life, but his defense still concerns me. I'd be more patient with him if he were an above-average defensive shortstop, but he isn't. I'm not sure what you do with him, but hopefully the next two months bring some clarity.

Lefty Specialist Jul 12 2018 12:25 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Boy, I don't know where to start. First of all, I don't trust these guys a) to spend more money and b) to spend that money wisely. They actually have 4 competent pitchers in deGrom/Thor/Wheeler/Matz. It's everything else that sucks. An outfielder needs to be traded. Bruce will get you nothing. Cespedes is untradeable. Nimmo should be untouchable. And Conforto deserves another year to show whether he's recovered or not. I don't have a plan (neither do they as far as I can tell). I think 2019 will be another year that they limp through.

MFS62 Jul 12 2018 12:42 PM Re: Contending in 2019

To me, the first thing they should do is sign Mesoraco to an extension. I don't see any improvement from the other catchers in the organization and nothing really apparent (unless I'm missing somebody) in the coming free agent market. Keep the four starters, Nimmo and Wilmer. Everyone else is fair game. And SPEND. Later

41Forever Jul 12 2018 12:47 PM Re: Contending in 2019

I'm in the minority, but I don't think they're that far. I'm expecting Rosario to continue improving -- he's still just, what, 22? 23? If they can figure out how to keep Cespedes and Syndergaard healthy, they'd be much stronger. Bruce signing looks bad in hindsight as Nimmo emerges, but I understand what they were thinking. Maybe they can shut him down, get the foot and back fully healed and he can come back and mash and gain some value.

Edgy MD Jul 12 2018 01:17 PM Re: Contending in 2019

I'm not sure "healing" is a likely outcome for plantar fasciitis. Through therapy, you can minimize the frequency and severity of flareups, but I don't think it's ever going to disappear from his book. There is a surgery, but that's probably a six-month recovery and it's not without it's downside.

Benjamin Grimm Jul 12 2018 01:32 PM Re: Contending in 2019

If the Mets take an approach of "Hey we're not so bad. We only lost about 90 games. Let's let everyone get a year older and see what happens." they'll get roasted, and deservedly so.

Ceetar Jul 12 2018 01:40 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Benjamin Grimm wrote: If the Mets take an approach of "Hey we're not so bad. We only lost about 90 games. Let's let everyone get a year older and see what happens." they'll get roasted, and deservedly so. yeah but we kinda want like Rosario to get a year older no? Who knows with the FA flux, but the Mets haven't really been in a 'hold serve' pattern for years.

Benjamin Grimm Jul 12 2018 01:44 PM Re: Contending in 2019

True. There are a handful of younger players who may benefit from being a year older.

Centerfield Jul 12 2018 01:44 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Benjamin Grimm wrote: If the Mets take an approach of "Hey we're not so bad. We only lost about 90 games. Let's let everyone get a year older and see what happens." they'll get roasted, and deservedly so. You mean the motto of Winter 2017-2018? Actually, that one might have been "Hey we're not so bad. We only lost about 90 games. Let's let everyone get a year older, drop payroll slightly, sign middling high-priced talent and see what happens."

Centerfield Jul 12 2018 01:49 PM Re: Contending in 2019

metsmarathon wrote: my god. i just clicked over to bbref to look at the mets salary situation for 2019. there's not a single damned player under actual signed contract for next year (meaning i'm not including any arbitration or pre-arbitration players) that would make you think, "yeah, i'd sign him for that money for next year" cespedes $29M wright $15M bruce $14M lagares $9M - this might be the most reasonable of the damned bunch! frazier $9M swarzak $8.5M vargas $8M that's a whole hell of a lot of money to spend in return for a bunch of negative and near-zero WAR. sheesh. That is damn depressing. With Cespedes and Wright, those deals were good gambles. At least the money was spent on top tier players. One can never predict injuries, especially one like David Wright's. These guys at least had the chance to be good. It's the others on the list that are infuriating. All that money spent on middling talent. $9 million for Todd Frazier when Flores or TJ Rivera could give you similar production.

Benjamin Grimm Jul 12 2018 01:50 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Centerfield wrote: You mean the motto of Winter 2017-2018? Actually, that one might have been "Hey we're not so bad. We only lost about 90 games. Let's let everyone get a year older, drop payroll slightly, sign middling high-priced talent and see what happens." Exactly. Last year's plan hasn't worked out at all. If they take the perspective that 41 offered, that they're closer than they seem, we're very likely to see more lousiness in 2019. And, sadly, I think that's what we're likely to see happen.

Ceetar Jul 12 2018 01:54 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Centerfield wrote: metsmarathon wrote: my god. i just clicked over to bbref to look at the mets salary situation for 2019. there's not a single damned player under actual signed contract for next year (meaning i'm not including any arbitration or pre-arbitration players) that would make you think, "yeah, i'd sign him for that money for next year" cespedes $29M wright $15M bruce $14M lagares $9M - this might be the most reasonable of the damned bunch! frazier $9M swarzak $8.5M vargas $8M that's a whole hell of a lot of money to spend in return for a bunch of negative and near-zero WAR. sheesh. That is damn depressing. With Cespedes and Wright, those deals were good gambles. At least the money was spent on top tier players. One can never predict injuries, especially one like David Wright's. These guys at least had the chance to be good. It's the others on the list that are infuriating. All that money spent on middling talent. $9 million for Todd Frazier when Flores or TJ Rivera could give you similar production. Frazier is so so so so so SO much better than Flores and TJ Rivera combined. Swarzak was a good grab, if a bit expensive, and still might be worth it. Vargas isn't good, but he's typically not horrid either. But pitching, even averageish pitching, is expensive and the Mets already had like 8 starters. I still don't understand anyone opining that the Mets didn't address rotation depth, they probably had more guys than most other teams.

Lefty Specialist Jul 12 2018 02:45 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Edgy MD wrote: I'm not sure "healing" is a likely outcome for plantar fasciitis. Through therapy, you can minimize the frequency and severity of flareups, but I don't think it's ever going to disappear from his book. There is a surgery, but that's probably a six-month recovery and it's not without it's downside. I've had it. A bad flareup about 10 years ago, where I could barely walk. Rest and therapy are the best treatments, and I was basically off my foot for about a month. I get minor flares occasionally but I deal with it. Of course I wasn't trying to play the outfield in a major league uniform, but it is treatable.

seawolf17 Jul 12 2018 02:50 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Part of me wishes that we could trade bad contracts for bad contracts and that it would work out, but you know it won't.

Edgy MD Jul 12 2018 02:53 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Nah, it can sometimes get you in a better situation. Harvey for Meso has worked.

smg58 Jul 12 2018 02:57 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Frazier is not a better hitter than Wil Flores. He was supposed to be a huge defensive upgrade, but he's been a decent defensive upgrade whose value with the glove has been negated by Cabrera's performance (or lack thereof) at second. It is fair to ask which of the available options at second or third that we talked about in the offseason would have been better pickups, and the answer is... who? Kipnis has been worse than Frazier. Cozart is out for the year. Moustakas could have been had, though. The issue there was more about the draft pick than the money. I'd be mad over that if we were the right infielder away from contention, but, it turns out we're better off with the pick. It is fair to ask what Flores' role on this team is going forward. The need for a right-handed first baseman will be diminished next year if/when Alonso gets the call. And Rivera (possibly Cecchini as well) can fill his role in the rest of the infield. I love the guy and would hate to see him go, but he is a reasonable trade candidate.

smg58 Jul 12 2018 02:58 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Edgy MD wrote: Nah, it can sometimes get you in a better situation. Harvey for Meso has worked. Nobody in the entire league looked more undealable at the end of last season than Matt Kemp. Not only was he dealt, but now he's a freaking All-Star.

seawolf17 Jul 12 2018 03:06 PM Re: Contending in 2019

smg58 wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Nah, it can sometimes get you in a better situation. Harvey for Meso has worked. Nobody in the entire league looked more undealable at the end of last season than Matt Kemp. Not only was he dealt, but now he's a freaking All-Star. Same with Shin Soo Choo.

Centerfield Jul 12 2018 03:10 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Ceetar wrote: Frazier is so so so so so SO much better than Flores and TJ Rivera combined. Todd Frazier career OPS: .773 TJ Rivera career OPS: .780 Wilmer Flores Career OPS: .734 (But, his OPS for the last three season: .788, .795, .802.) Wilmer Flores + TJ Rivera combined: 1.507

Ceetar Jul 12 2018 03:27 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Centerfield wrote: Frazier is so so so so so SO much better than Flores and TJ Rivera combined. Todd Frazier career OPS: .773 TJ Rivera career OPS: .780 Wilmer Flores Career OPS: .734 (But, his OPS for the last three season: .788, .795, .802.) Wilmer Flores + TJ Rivera combined: 1.507 That's not how you'd combine them in my eye, you'd have to compute the averages. anyway, Flores is having a career year, and has managed to raise his walk rate to almost league average. But that was mostly early season stuff and it's slipping again. Frazier was good until the first injury and was maybe still injured afterwards? Either way, he's typically been good the last few years since he learned how to walk. And he does play much better defense, even if that's decent defense, which is much better than bad defense. Frazier has a history of doing it for a long period of time.

Ashie62 Jul 12 2018 04:43 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Lefty Specialist wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I'm not sure "healing" is a likely outcome for plantar fasciitis. Through therapy, you can minimize the frequency and severity of flareups, but I don't think it's ever going to disappear from his book. There is a surgery, but that's probably a six-month recovery and it's not without it's downside. I've had it. A bad flareup about 10 years ago, where I could barely walk. Rest and therapy are the best treatments, and I was basically off my foot for about a month. I get minor flares occasionally but I deal with it. Of course I wasn't trying to play the outfield in a major league uniform, but it is treatable. Frazier is better than Flores and Rivera combined? Frazier is on that post 30 slide down How did the Mets end up with so many horrific contracts?

metirish Jul 12 2018 04:53 PM Re: Contending in 2019

I have no faith in the Mets FO and ownership , contend in 2019?....this fucking mess needs to be torn up, not seeing it happen

metsmarathon Jul 13 2018 02:37 AM Re: Contending in 2019

Lefty Specialist wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I'm not sure "healing" is a likely outcome for plantar fasciitis. Through therapy, you can minimize the frequency and severity of flareups, but I don't think it's ever going to disappear from his book. There is a surgery, but that's probably a six-month recovery and it's not without it's downside. I've had it. A bad flareup about 10 years ago, where I could barely walk. Rest and therapy are the best treatments, and I was basically off my foot for about a month. I get minor flares occasionally but I deal with it. Of course I wasn't trying to play the outfield in a major league uniform, but it is treatable. plantar fasciitis SUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCKS. like, it totally sucks. did i mention - it sucks! but it's treatable and manageable. and if you take care of it soon enough, before you start ripping shit apart, you should be fine long term.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jul 13 2018 04:34 AM Re: Contending in 2019

Centerfield wrote: It's the others on the list that are infuriating. All that money spent on middling talent. $9 million for Todd Frazier when Flores or TJ Rivera could give you similar production. I mean... that's just not true. They could give you similar offensive production, possibly... but, when healthy, Frazier is actually a plus defender. Like, worth 1-2 WAR with glove alone. But he's hurt, and anyway, I digress. To the point... Maybe I'm just at a very dark path in my fandom arc... but you guys all sound ABSURDLY optimistic to me. I don't see this team contending without selling off our onfield rulers AND a serious interregnal period, besides.

Centerfield Jul 13 2018 02:15 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Yes, I meant similar production offensively. And I know that I typically undervalue defense anyway, but in 2017, our pitching ranked 28th and our offense ranked 19th. We needed to upgrade on both sides so drastically that defense is, like, a bonus. And considering our approach to improving the pitching was "hope everyone is better in 2018", we needed guys who were going to make a significant difference offensively. And Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce were not the guys we needed.

Ceetar Jul 13 2018 02:27 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Centerfield wrote: Yes, I meant similar production offensively. And I know that I typically undervalue defense anyway, but in 2017, our pitching ranked 28th and our offense ranked 19th. We needed to upgrade on both sides so drastically that defense is, like, a bonus. And considering our approach to improving the pitching was "hope everyone is better in 2018", we needed guys who were going to make a significant difference offensively. And Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce were not the guys we needed. Bruce is garbage, sure. I still think paying Cain was worth it. But infield-wise? Frazier/Rosario/Cabrera/Smith is a much better defensive infield than 2017. Even if it's Gonzalez for a little while. That's even arguably an above average defensive infield. If you take that hand in hand with the chose of Vargas as the veteran SP innings eater guy, it does make a little sense.

smg58 Jul 13 2018 03:35 PM Re: Contending in 2019

The Fielding Bible had our infield defense at -68 runs saved last year. So far this year, we're at -41. Cabrera is a big part of that, and Frazier has not been the problem, but if it weren't for Manny Machado an Xander Bogaerts we'd be dead last in the majors at shortstop as well as second base. That's a problem that needs solving.

batmagadanleadoff Jul 14 2018 01:49 AM Re: Contending in 2019

Can the Mets contend in 2019? Read the Baseball Prospectus roundtable discussion, linked below. Some great one-liners. And some highlights: -- they'll contend if they spend money (which they won't) -- Jeff Wilpon is a monster, an asshole, and a douchebag -- innuendo that the Mets should've cut ties with David Wright in 2012 -- the Mets are dumb -- Dom Smith is a sucky bust who can't hit, run or play defense -- Jay Bruce'll still be here in 2019 a year older and a year suckier because the Mets are dumb and cheap and won't recognize suck costs http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.c ... oundtable/

Ceetar Jul 14 2018 02:15 AM Re: Contending in 2019

that's not exactly expert opinion. and they're wrong.

d'Kong76 Jul 14 2018 02:39 AM Re: Contending in 2019

Nothing 'great' about it or riveting, all six of those things have been said here in our tiny corner of Mets' fandom. Having it culled from under the venerable BP umbrella means nothing and is just as boring as beams and ceilings. People's mileage may vary. Let's Go Yankees *clap* *clap* *clapclapclap*

batmagadanleadoff Jul 14 2018 05:18 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Nothing 'great' about it or riveting, all six of those things have been said here in our tiny corner of Mets' fandom. Having it culled from under the venerable BP umbrella means nothing and is just as boring as beams and ceilings. People's mileage may vary. Let's Go Yankees *clap* *clap* *clapclapclap* Holy moley, the idiotic and contrived lengths you go to to take a stupid shot at me and then the "beams and ceilings" reference just in case I didn't get it. Beehive. Never learn. YOU: Quite frankly, it wasnt meant that way. ME: Bullshit!

Centerfield Jul 23 2018 02:31 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Maybe I'm just overreacting from a particularly disheartening weekend, but I am less and less convinced that the Mets can contend in 2019. I was just taking an inventory of my thoughts on the direction of this franchise. In all my years as a fan, I don't think I've ever been more at odds with their thinking. And to think I used to defend the Wilpons when they were vilified in the Doubleday/Wilpon dispute. I guess I always suspected that those cartoonish characterizations of the miserly Wilpon was couched, at least in part, by anti-Semitism. And maybe they still are, but now given the mountain of actual evidence, I just don't see a way out for this franchise.

Ceetar Jul 23 2018 02:35 PM Re: Contending in 2019

My thinking hasn't changed much over two games, if anything it's gotten better with the Conforto home run. Conforto and Rosario are still the keys.

Centerfield Jul 23 2018 03:01 PM Re: Contending in 2019

It's not the games ceetar. I'm talking about: *Our best hitter having a long-term debilitating injury *Communication problems leading to conflicting messages from management and player *Our team's preference that the player, instead of correcting the condition, play through pain in a lost season, like Carlos Beltran nearly a decade earlier *Middling returns on the best reliever in Mets history. Failing to maximize returns by again, asking the other team to take on the salary *all of the foregoing suggesting an inability to learn from past mistakes *Demoting Dom Smith, when he should be collecting as many ABs as possible *Playing Jose Reyes over Jeff McNeil

Ceetar Jul 23 2018 03:19 PM Re: Contending in 2019

I guess the Cespedes is a knock if he does indeed need the surgery that will keep him out until the ASB, but I believe you'd contend that this organization has been behaving that way for roughly forever, so I don't know why you'd downgrade them. I agree on the last two, but Dom Smith was failing in the majors so I can't get too worked up about it. As for McNeil who is probably not anything approaching a long term solution, the Mets would get killed for shoving him into a new position in the majors he hadn't been playing. Either way I can't get worked up about him not getting those 50-100 extra PA in the majors. Maybe the extra minor league development time will help him both offensively and defensively in the future. I'm generally pro "Get these guys up here and let them learn here" but there is still actually some value to the minors. There's stuff you just don't get in the majors even for a team that technically is out of it. Especially still in July. The other stuff, well. it's mostly LOLMets stuff. Most of it you, and others, would've been comfortable asserting two weeks ago and you've already criticized me for wanting some critical thinking on the matter and less spinning words to fit the narrative. See, it is the same thing with Beltran in a way, and I agree that the Mets are generally way too conservative in many many ways, but hell, lots of teams are. That Cespedes comments to the press were the first time the Mets heard him say he's considering the more aggressive option isn't really a huge thing, it was just Cespedes being open and honest, something the media's been begging of him for months. I doubt Yoenis was like "oh, it's chronic? shut it down and cut me open immediately so I'm as ready to go in 2019 as I can be!" (Though that's kind of what Beltran did, once he got the second/third opinion or whatever it was. "Oh, that'll work? DO IT." The Mets wanted to have a discussion and weigh their options. They wanted input on personal medical decision, and were mildly put off that Beltran decided on his own. Much like Thor refusing an MRI. That's hardly "DAMMIT CARLOS YOU GET BACK ON THE FIELD AND PLAY INJURED!" but, you know, narrative. But isn't it standard medical practice to let the symptoms heal up before you assess and fix the root cause? Cespedes had ancillary issues as a result of the heel spur, and they wanted those to heal up before fully accessing what was going on, if it could be treated without surgery, etc. Isn't ramping up and playing major league games exactly that? I get the desire, from a wins and losses standpoint, to want him to get cut open and fixed asap, but that's not always the human answer. What i want to know is what that negotiation stands now. What are they actually after with Cespedes playing some games now? Was this just a way to get the issue talked about and move on? Because I still don't understand how he can't DH back to back games, unless the scratch Saturday was more a result of rushing him back a little bit and not necessarily heel related? I feel like there's so much garbage and noise coverage out there, a lot of it clickbait narrative trash, that it's more time consuming to find the actual answers to the real questions.

Nymr83 Jul 23 2018 04:09 PM Re: Contending in 2019

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Mets have pitchers. Generally speaking, I'd risk losing Wheels or Matz and gamble on Dunn or Peterson next year. someone will get hurt. or suck. or both. bring Matz back based on this year and if Dunn/Peterson earn their spot there will always be a spot. or you can make via trade then.

Lefty Specialist Jul 23 2018 06:27 PM Re: Contending in 2019

We thought they had too much pitching last year, until they didn't.

Centerfield Jul 31 2018 03:03 AM Re: Contending in 2019

So the way the deadline is going, and I realize there is time left, it seems like the Mets will try to contend in 2019. The good news is at least the best writers seem to finally understand that this is going to mean opening up payroll.

metsmarathon Jul 31 2018 12:36 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Centerfield wrote: So the way the deadline is going, and I realize there is time left, it seems like the Mets will try to contend in 2019. The good news is at least the best writers seem to finally understand that this is going to mean opening up payroll. yabbut.... do the wilpons share that same understanding?

Ceetar Jul 31 2018 01:24 PM Re: Contending in 2019

metsmarathon wrote: Centerfield wrote: So the way the deadline is going, and I realize there is time left, it seems like the Mets will try to contend in 2019. The good news is at least the best writers seem to finally understand that this is going to mean opening up payroll. yabbut.... do the wilpons share that same understanding? Wilpons always seem to be able to be pitched to, so I think there's a good shot New GM is able to convince them to spend a little more, at least in key spots. Wasn't that one of their supposed rules for when they hired Sandy? "Sell us on how you're going to make this team good" I mean, granted, sometimes it's a snake oil salesman. The GM thing is going to be such a crux of it all, it's hard to say anything with any conviction about anything. Does Callaway stay? The coaches? A new GM is going to start bringing in 'his guys' up and down the organization, does that start immediately or do they take a year or so to assess the current staff? Do we hire another analytic person or two to get 'above average' over just average? The entire training staff is new this year as well, and it seems like they might be at least partially data/science driven, do they expand that? utilize it? Sandy's been pretty willing to just punt defense (though it seems like the intent was to be better on the infield this year, it just didn't work out), will the new guy favor some good glove work?

Lefty Specialist Jul 31 2018 06:32 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Ceetar wrote: Wilpons always seem to be able to be pitched to, so I think there's a good shot New GM is able to convince them to spend a little more, at least in key spots. Wasn't that one of their supposed rules for when they hired Sandy? "Sell us on how you're going to make this team good" I mean, granted, sometimes it's a snake oil salesman. Omar did that pretty successfully, back when they had money.

Ceetar Jul 31 2018 06:53 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Lefty Specialist wrote: Ceetar wrote: Wilpons always seem to be able to be pitched to, so I think there's a good shot New GM is able to convince them to spend a little more, at least in key spots. Wasn't that one of their supposed rules for when they hired Sandy? "Sell us on how you're going to make this team good" I mean, granted, sometimes it's a snake oil salesman. Omar did that pretty successfully, back when they had money. They have money now, they're just gun-shy about spending into the red. But maybe the initial spurt will be more palatable than the throwing good money after bad like Jason Bay when it's not followed up by a scandal, a crash and a stadium debt. Plus Cespedes and Wright coming off the books in two years (or most of it by the end of each year), so hell, they could probably just go over budget by the extra tax breaks the criminal in the white house is getting them and if it doesn't work they're not in too deep.

RealityChuck Jul 31 2018 07:27 PM Re: Contending in 2019

The team could contend, but only if the stars align. Starting pitching is fine, and a strength. Bullpen needs work, but that can be dealt with (hey, Familia and Montero will be back, so we're good, right. :)) We have potential with Nimmo and Conforto in the outfield, and Cespedes will make a difference if we can stay close until he comes back. Bruce is likely to regain his form next year. Other than that, the infield and catching is iffy. Maybe Alonso or Smith turn out to be quality players at first. Maybe McNeil, Evans, or Rivera are answers at second. Maybe Rosario grows into the player he's projected to be. Maybe Frazier regains his form. Maybe Plawecki finally puts it together.* Maybe, maybe, maybe. To erase the maybes, the team needs to sign at least one impact free agent (probably two). Can the Wilpons be persuaded to do it? I'd be pessimistic. *I would assume Mesoraco will try for free agency; he shown enough to be attractive, especially since catchers are hard to find these days.

sharpie Jul 31 2018 07:33 PM Re: Contending in 2019

The Guardian weighs in with an anti-Mets pro-Padres article. https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/ ... relegation

Centerfield Jul 31 2018 08:03 PM Re: Contending in 2019

sharpie wrote: The Guardian weighs in with an anti-Mets pro-Padres article. https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/ ... relegation Hard to argue with any of that.

Edgy MD Jul 31 2018 08:18 PM Re: Contending in 2019

The Mets will win more games than the Padres this year, next year, and the next five years.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Aug 01 2018 01:09 AM Re: Contending in 2019

I kinda doubt that. It's been clear for a while that the road forward diverges into two potential paths here: sell hard or spend/go hard. I have very little doubt we're going to end up drifting right into the orange barrels in between, firing middle-managers as the car slows to a half-decade-long wait for AAA.

Edgy MD Aug 01 2018 02:36 AM Re: Contending in 2019

Even after tonight's "game," I stand by my post. My money's on the table, man.

41Forever Aug 01 2018 12:17 PM Re: Contending in 2019 Edited 4 time(s), most recently on Aug 01 2018 02:37 PM

Some of the points in this Scott Chiusano post are ridiculous. [url]http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/ny-sports-mets-nationals-game-box-20180731-story.html?outputType=amp Tuesday began with the Mets hanging on dearly to all their pitchers and all their aging veterans, including Jose Reyes. Dearly? And, did he expect a robust trade market for Reyes? Steven Matz, one of the core four of pitchers the club refused to part with due to delusions of grandeur that they can contend in 2019 with this roster as currently constituted, got lit up by the Nationals. He didn’t make it out of the first inning, allowing eight hits and seven runs and recording just two outs. I can't tell if this is supposed to be a straight game story or an opinion column. But not giving away any of the club's good, young pitchers doesn't mean the Mets plan to contend "with this roster as currently constituted." Is he aware that teams also try to improve themselves on days other than the July trading deadline, and that there is a long period called the off season where many teams rebuild their rosters? I know the News just eliminated half its editorial staff. This is what readers get as a result.

Edgy MD Aug 01 2018 12:25 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Well, you've been out of town a while, but opinioning in what were formerly straight news articles has become a hallmark of the tabloids.

Lefty Specialist Aug 01 2018 01:37 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Well, Matz wasn't 'lit up' so much as 'incinerated by standing under a Saturn 5 rocket at liftoff.'

MFS62 Aug 01 2018 01:37 PM Re: Contending in 2019

I will go on record now that there should be no correlation between the title of this thread and the results of last night's game. News stories trying to talking about last night's game in that kind of perspective (gloom and doom for the future) are just taking a cheap shot. OE: Carrying Lefty's fire analogy onward, maybe last night's game will be the spark the Wilpons need to get them going to help the team. Later

seawolf17 Aug 01 2018 02:14 PM Re: Contending in 2019

MFS62 wrote: maybe last night's game will be the spark the Wilpons need to get them going to help the team. "Okay! Let's break this team up. Who's ready to trade?" ... "Wait, the deadline was *YESTERDAY*?!?!?"

smg58 Aug 01 2018 02:59 PM Re: Contending in 2019

1. I really hope the Mets didn't find out about Matz' dead arm the same time the press did. 2. In a lost season, guys with arm fatigue get a start or two off. That way small problems don't become big ones. 3. Rhame, Peterson, and Bashlor do not belong on a major league roster. (Oh hell, Jose Reyes doesn't either.) Drew Smith might, though. 4. Pitchers who don't have much prospect value but are pitching well enough in AAA to warrant a shot in a bad bullpen are not that hard to find. Alderson did not make a point of finding these pitchers at last year's deadline, despite only shopping for relief prospects of marginal value, and the results speak for themselves. Smith at least might salvage that, but he wasn't ready in April. 5. The rest of the Familia package is dubious at best, but Wahl is exactly the kind of guy the Mets should be looking to add. The Mets still need at least two (preferably left-handed) more arms, though. You can pay for them in the offseason, but a) you actually have to do that, and b) I am assuming for the sake of argument that our resources will be finite.

Ceetar Aug 01 2018 03:36 PM Re: Contending in 2019

You can't always pay for them in the offseason. Relievers are fluky and full of small sample size nonsense. I'd almost rather they didn't pay for relievers and in that vein I like the targets Alderson made last offseason. There appears to be a disconnect (or it's just small sample noise and it'll work out soon enough) between what Alderson targeted and the ability of the Mets pitching coaches down the line to mold those talents into real value. Rhame, Peterson, Bashlor have thrown relatively few innings. Perhaps they do not belong on a major league roster today, but for such a specialized role, all it often takes is one tweak to turn a guy into a reasonably effective major leaguer for a a stretch of time. No reason that can't still happen for any and all of them. Bashlor is crazy wild, but it seems like his stuff should play based on the minors. he hasn't even pitched in AAA yet. Peterson is the one with the good K/BB rate but he's got no velocity in an extremely high velocity age. Both of these guys are just later round draft picks (and getting older), not the guys the Mets grabbed last year. Rhame's one of the acquisitions. He's interesting. It looks like the Dodgers had no faith his stuff would translate to the majors, despite good numbers. (good K rates, cut walks, unlucky BABIP) Sandy was probably reading that bad luck and good stuff and figuring he was actually good, and maybe he is..but..he's throwing like 4+ pitches in the majors and that doesn't seem to be working. The Mets had him learn a curveball this year as a 4th pitch, but why? Maybe if he just went fastball/slider he'd be good?

Edgy MD Aug 01 2018 04:05 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Yeah, let's not get caught in the trap of saying the jury is in on all (or any) of these guys. Jesse Orosco came for Jerry Koosman in the 1978-1979 offseason. He debuted in 1979 and showed nothing. He didn't become an effective big-league pitcher until 1982. In 1983, he was the best reliever on the planet, with 20 years of effective pitching ahead of him. Prospects mature when they mature, or they don't, and only years down the road is the relative wisdom of their acquisition clear. The most consistent key to effective relief is to need as little of it as possible. And when your starter gets bumped with two out in the first, that ship has sailed. But you know, I think we can say the jury is on Reyes' pitching.

bmfc1 Aug 02 2018 06:04 PM Re: Contending in 2019

Fangraphs: The goal of this is not to say just that the Mets aren’t a good team. Instead, there’s this idea that, thanks to the top of their rotation, the Mets are a potential pitching juggernaut if they can just stay healthy. But even if deGrom and Syndergaard were to combine for 10 WAR next year by themselves, this would still not be a good pitching staff. Wheeler is injury prone, and Matz, despite flashes, hasn’t shown he’s anything more than an inconsistent back-end starter. The bullpen is a problem that’s harder to fix. Aside from Lugo, it’s hard to see anyone in that group that could be counted on as a contributor for a 2019 contender’s bullpen. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/reexami ... something/

Ceetar Aug 02 2018 06:20 PM Re: Contending in 2019

That entire article is "you can't determine anything in one game, but here's my 2019 breakdown of the Mets based on this one game"

Edgy MD Aug 02 2018 06:43 PM Re: Contending in 2019

I see plenty that could be counted on to be 2019 bullpen contributors. I don't see any that necessarily will, but guarantees aren't gonna come, especially with relievers. The key to a strong bullpen is a strong (and healthy) rotation.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 02 2018 06:50 PM Re: Contending in 2019

And I suppose that opting to keep Wheeler is a sign of an intent to try to contend in 2019. But even with deGrom, Syndergaard, and Wheeler the rotation is still pretty shaky. Matz may be a contributor, but that seems extremely iffy. I think they'll have to get another arm from outside the organization. Hopefully someone better than Jason Vargas. I hear that Tommy Milone had a pretty good start the other day...

Ceetar Aug 02 2018 07:14 PM Re: Contending in 2019

I think people are overestimating what most 4th starters are. If Thor, deGrom and Wheeler are making let's say 81 starts, that realllllly nice. You don't need 5 aces, you just need non-duds back there for the other 81.