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2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Mex17 Oct 01 2018 08:42 AM

It all hinges on who the GM is and what he or she decides to do with deGrom. Either you lock him up or you trade him. Either way, make the commitment and go for it. The "trade deGrom" option means that you also trade Wheeler along with whoever else you can move who is not under team control through 2021 at minimum. You sacrifice the next two seasons, wait out the Cespedes, Bruce, and Wright contracts, and stock up your minor leagues for another run starting in 2021. The "lock up deGrom" option means that you go into the market big time. No limits, but sensible based upon need. A version of that can look something like this. . . Nimmo-RF McNeil-2b Conforto-LF Jones-CF Bruce-1b Frazier-3b Grandal-c pitcher Rosario-ss deGrom Syndergaard Matz Wheeler Vargas Kimbrel Britton Gsellman Lugo Swarzak Zamora Smith Plawecki Lagares Flores Rivera Reinheimer

Lefty Specialist Oct 01 2018 12:19 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Bruce is the piece that doesn't fit. Either going for it or breaking it down, he shouldn't be your first baseman.

smg58 Oct 01 2018 12:42 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

I agree that Bruce doesn't fit, but I think you have to be prepared to go with him if you can't do better in return for him than a middling prospect and eating half his contract. Now I think his performance after his return (.243./.344/.467) was comparable enough to reasonable expectations that it shouldn't come to that, but you need to hold on to your leverage if you're trying to work out a deal.

Gwreck Oct 01 2018 01:14 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Going for it means, to me, signing Machado or Harper. Get the best talent available. This might mean having Frazier play first/trading him. I don’t see Jay Bruce fitting in anywhere and would expect him to be traded for anything we can get; or we carry him as a lefty power bat off the bench.

Ceetar Oct 01 2018 01:28 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

I certainly don't think the Mets should persue half-measures, but break it down IS NOT AN OPTION. Between Nimmo, Conforto and deGrom/Thor, there is a ton of talent that is also still locked up for 2020. Also possibly/probably Rosario, Plawecki, McNeil, Smith?, Matz, Cespedes and maybe even Lagares. This is definitely not a closing window, and there is zero reason to slam it shut. I'd like to see Machado, as I think he provides the better fit with less maneuvering than Harper. Sometimes there are 'lesser' players that end up performing better though. Look at the top SP free agents last year for example, they all sucked. It's hardly the _only_ way to build a team. Is there more value in Donaldson, Dozier, A.J. Pollock? Focusing on catcher and Grandal? or Ramos? They gotta build the pen. It's the hardest part and the biggest crap shoot, but you could argue that Alderson's best GM move was Addison Reed to pair with Familia.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 01 2018 01:58 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

If I'm interviewing a GM candidate, and he says that his plan would be to tear it down and plan for two seasons of losing, I'd shake his hand, and say "it was a pleasure meeting you. Thank you for coming by. Now get the fuck out of my office."

Centerfield Oct 01 2018 02:00 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

I don’t think they will do either. I think they will make the same type of moves they made last year and we will end up hoping to snag a wild card if everything breaks the right way.

Lefty Specialist Oct 01 2018 06:34 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Centerfield wrote: I don’t think they will do either. I think they will make the same type of moves they made last year and we will end up hoping to snag a wild card if everything breaks the right way. Yeah, that's their M.O. The half-measures and the junkheap signings hoping to catch 'lightning in a bottle'. The bullpen absolutely killed this team this year. They have to get a quality closer and set-up man. And some of the flotsam and jetsam needs to be cleared out or sent back to the minors. I want to see Alonso next year. he has nothing to prove in the minors. I'd rather see Dom Smith hold down that spot if you're waiting for the Super-Two deadline to pass (as they probably will). Rather see Bruce in the outfield and Lagares/Nimmo man center. I expect they'll see very little of Cespedes; anything they get is a bonus, and somebody else will be hurt by then anyway. Machado would be nice, but he'll cost a fortune in dollars and years. Another team will lock him up. And I don't want Harper.

metsmarathon Oct 01 2018 07:13 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

it's interesting to see what we do next year. we've got a hell of a rotation, though we've said that before... and we have some good young pieces in the outfield and mid-infield. and a whole lot of dead weight on the roster that needs to be planned around. are we really expecting two of bruce/frazier/cespedes to be riding the pine (or on the DL) all next year?

Benjamin Grimm Oct 01 2018 07:19 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

I would love to see them unload both Bruce and Frazier, but that might be too much to hope for. Hopefully they can deal at least one of the two. Frazier has less of a financial commitment ahead of him, so he may be easier to trade.

Vic Sage Oct 01 2018 07:42 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

lineup: Nimmo*- Cf McNeil*- 2b Machado - 3b [fa] Conforto*- Lf [Arb1] Grandal#- C [fa] Bruce* - Rf [$14m] Frazier -1b [$9m] [pitcher] Rosario- SS bench: Plawecki - C [Arb1] Lagares - Cf [$9m] Flores - IF [Arb3] TJRivera - Ut D.Smith* -1b/OF Rotation: deGrom [Arb3] Syndergaard [Arb2] Wheeler [Arb3] Matz* [Arb1] Vargas* [$8m] Bullpen: Kimbrel [fa] A.Ottavino [fa] J.Wilson* [fa] Swarzak [$8.5m] Gsellman Lugo Zamora* [DL - Cespedes] [$29m]

Centerfield Oct 01 2018 08:46 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

lineup: Machado - 3b [fa] Grandal#- C [fa] lololol Bullpen: Kimbrel [fa] A.Ottavino [fa] LOLOLOLOL

Mex17 Oct 01 2018 09:45 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

I think Machado signing anywhere to be a third baseman is a pipe dream, the guy has stated that he wants to play shortstop and he has the leverage. But. . . If you sign Machado as a shortstop, then Rosario becomes a trade chip, maybe a pretty big one that you can package others around to send to Miami for Realmuto.

Ceetar Oct 01 2018 11:42 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Mex17 wrote: I think Machado signing anywhere to be a third baseman is a pipe dream, the guy has stated that he wants to play shortstop and he has the leverage. . as always, money talks.

Frayed Knot Oct 02 2018 12:11 AM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

But he'll get offered money either way and, given the choice, he'll take the team that signs the check ANNNNNNND allows him to play SS So for those who want them to go after MM (I personally think his haircut alone disqualifies him from consideration) you also have to tell us what you plan to do with Rosario.

Lefty Specialist Oct 02 2018 12:59 AM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Rosario's a trade chip if you sign Machado. In other words, Rosario's Mets future is quite secure.

Centerfield Oct 02 2018 01:52 AM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

To clarify, I don’t think Machado is even a remote possibility. But if for some reason he wants to sign here and play SS the answer is simple. Rosario moves to 2B, McNeil goes to 3B. Everyone pretends it works until it doesn’t and then you move everyone back where they should be.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 02 2018 02:53 AM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

That's exactly what I was thinking.

Ceetar Oct 02 2018 03:44 AM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Frayed Knot wrote: But he'll get offered money either way and, given the choice, he'll take the team that signs the check ANNNNNNND allows him to play SS So for those who want them to go after MM (I personally think his haircut alone disqualifies him from consideration) you also have to tell us what you plan to do with Rosario. this isn't the NBA with max contracts. Someone can simply offer him _more_. Let's see what happens when he actually starts negotiating. I'm not worried about what to do with Rosario or Frazier or McNeil. you make room and figure it out.

smg58 Oct 02 2018 01:18 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Machado playing shortstop was less about him wanting to play shortstop and more about him wanting to maximize the number of bidders. I doubt seriously he will leave money on table over it.

Edgy MD Oct 02 2018 01:44 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

lineup: Machado - 3b [fa] Grandal#- C [fa] lololol Bullpen: Kimbrel [fa] A.Ottavino [fa] LOLOLOLOL I think Kimbrel is probably the most likely big shot free agent to land in Flushing, douchey beard and all.

Ceetar Oct 02 2018 01:52 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

second google result for Kimbrel is "Pitchers trending down" Kimbrel's real good, and he seems to have bounced back from the worries in that post, but I just don't think most of these top names are good enough to warrant what they'll be asking. Thought I guess it'd be nice to bring in a solid guy to replace Familia that even if he trends down is still pretty reliably very good at least for a few years? Especially if you don't trust the organization evaluations to figure out which random other reliever will thrive here. I do like Ottavino though. I'm hoping they'll glean a useful arm or two from the cache they built up the last two years too, provided the new pitching coaches aren't completely inept, which it seems like they're probably not. The Mets need a strong bullpen more than anything else.

Edgy MD Oct 02 2018 02:02 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

I agree with regard to Kimbrel. But I think Mets history — and non-Alderson Mets history in particular — suggests a propensity to go big on big-shot, name-brand, possibly declining, possibly douchey closers.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 02 2018 02:06 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Do we think they might consider bringing Familia back?

Ceetar Oct 02 2018 02:11 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Edgy MD wrote: I agree with regard to Kimbrel. But I think Mets history — and non-Alderson Mets history in particular — suggests a propensity to go big on big-shot, name-brand, possibly declining, possibly douchey closers. well hopefully Mets history in particular is mostly irrelevant because it'll be a new guy making the call with little to no oversight from traditional Mets sources. Is Kimbrel douchey beyond the look? I don't know much about him I don't think.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 02 2018 02:17 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Going out and blowing the free agent budget on a closer is exactly the kind of thing an incompetant organization like the Mets loves doing, *especially* when they want to make a show of how serious they are. It's almost always a shortsighted waste of $$.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 02 2018 02:34 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

I agree. Bolster the middle of the bullpen and let Lugo or Gsellman or whoever else proves to be the best drift towards the late innings.

Edgy MD Oct 02 2018 02:36 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Ceetar wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I agree with regard to Kimbrel. But I think Mets history — and non-Alderson Mets history in particular — suggests a propensity to go big on big-shot, name-brand, possibly declining, possibly douchey closers. well hopefully Mets history in particular is mostly irrelevant because it'll be a new guy making the call with little to no oversight from traditional Mets sources. Is Kimbrel douchey beyond the look? Possibly.

Ceetar Oct 02 2018 02:40 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Going out and blowing the free agent budget on a closer is exactly the kind of thing an incompetant organization like the Mets loves doing, *especially* when they want to make a show of how serious they are. It's almost always a shortsighted waste of $$. I mean, yeah, but...the Red Sox acquired Kimbrel and his contract in a trade in roughly the same way. He had 11, 13, 13(buyout) coming to him and they gave up 4 players. They'd finished 5th the previous year and then won the division all three years they had him. Obviously Kimbrel now gets more than $25 guaranteed or whatever, but the Mets really do need the bullpen help the most.

Centerfield Oct 02 2018 03:00 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Are big name closers worth it? Right now there are five closers with a multi-year deal worth over $40 million. Aroldis Chapman (5 years, $86 million) Kenley Jansen (5 years, $80 million) Mark Melancon (4 years, $62 million) Wade Davis (3 years, $52 million) Craig Kimbrel (4 years, $42 million) Four of those guys are on teams that made the playoffs this year. The one guy who did not make the playoffs is Mark Melancon, who also hasn't been very good. On a per year basis, there are 7 guys making more than $10 million per year. Those five guys above, plus Brandon Morrow and Cody Allen. 6 of those 7 guys are pitching in the playoffs, again, with Mark Melancon as the only exception. Source: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/closer/ Now, you certainly don't need an expensive closer. Out of the ten playoff teams, six feature the guys above, while four have relatively cheap solutions. Vizcaino in Atlanta, Cory Knebel in Milwaukee, Rondon/Giles in Houston and Blake Treinen in Oakland are relatively inexpensive (making less than $5 million). But with the exception of maybe Houston, I think it's safe to say that every playoff team has a pretty terrific closer. I don't see that the Mets have that guy in their organization. I guess they could trade for someone. But I think if they are serious about competing next year, they need a lockdown guy, one way or another.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 02 2018 03:08 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

The Mets need to spend $$ on scoring more runs somehow, that helps the bullpen even more. I'd look into what it'd take to get Fammy and Ottavino (Brooklyn kid, played in Lunchpail's Litttle League) but not to the point where it cost me from doing other stuff. The other thing I'd do is look into Dallas Kuechel and/or Patrick Corbin, even though the latter is a YLDB

Edgy MD Oct 02 2018 03:33 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

I'm almost always down on over-investing in the bullpen, particularly in name-brandy guys. Trends just don't continue. If you sign Kimbrel now, you don't get the 26-year-old who hosed the league down with his magnificent hosey hose, you get his Mark Melancon years, and quite possibly his Melancon results. He certainly could reverse trends, but that's a lot of sauce to put down. I think the goal is to get good pitchers, keep 'em healthy, build up some redundancy, and guys emerge. Maybe Joshua Torres. Maybe Chris Flexen pulls a Lugo/Gsellman and ups his game when he moves to the pen. Maybe Jeurys Familia comes back from the dead. Probably none of those. But I say you add good pitchers, develop good pitchers, keep good pitchers healthy, and remember that the best bullpens are fluid things.

metsmarathon Oct 02 2018 04:11 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

i think that, right now, if we put a whole lot of money into our bullpen, we're going to be signing a bunch of guys whose primary job will be to keep 1-run defecits from getting bigger, rather than hanging onto 1-run leads.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 02 2018 04:17 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

I'm telling you, Andrew McCutchen! Right-handed bat. On the downswing of his career. 32 years old next week. Made $14.75 million in 2018. This is the kind of guy that the Mets sign. Of course, the new GM might look at things differently, but McCutchen smells like a future Met to me. (Although, perhaps, the asparagus I had for dinner last night is having an effect on my perceptions.)

Centerfield Oct 02 2018 04:21 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

The answer is, frankly, that the Mets need to drastically upgrade both. They have a 23rd ranked offense and a 28th ranked bullpen. That being said, I agree that if we have to do one or the other, we address the offense first.

RealityChuck Oct 02 2018 05:13 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I agree. Bolster the middle of the bullpen and let Lugo or Gsellman or whoever else proves to be the best drift towards the late innings. Don't they still control Jennry Mejia? It doesn't look like he's been released, and they did offer arbitration to him last year. Drug issues aside -- and I'm sure they're behind him -- he has closing experience, and I doubt the steroids did much to make him better. Given their need for relief pitchers, it makes sense to seriously consider him.

Lefty Specialist Oct 02 2018 05:18 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

1B- Alonso/Smith/Bruce 2B- McNeil SS- Rosario 3B- Frazier LF- Conforto CF- Lagares RF- Nimmo C- ? Cespedes whenever he shows up. You're not going to get a real first baseman, with 3 and possibly 4 contenders if they keep Wilmer. A CF who can hit and really play the position would be nice, but then what happens when Cespy comes back? Sure, dump Frazier, but you have to replace that offense (the batting average won't be hard to replace). And it goes without saying that they need a catcher who can both throw out runners and hit more than .225. So while the offense sucked, as presently configured there's not a lot you can do to upgrade unless you're willing to roto-rooter the roster. The bullpen's easier to find bodies for, but no telling how it'll all work. Mejia's intriguing, but after 4 years away I doubt he can be competitive.

seawolf17 Oct 02 2018 05:20 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Lefty Specialist wrote: Mejia's intriguing, but after 4 years away I doubt he can be competitive. He was pretty good in the Dominican Summer League, for what that's worth. He'll be in the mix until he isn't, I guess.

smg58 Oct 02 2018 05:24 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Chapman has pitched 50 innings in each of the last two seasons, Davis got off to a very rough start in Colorado, Jansen has some medical issues and is having trouble keeping the ball in the park, Melancon had an injury that cost him half of two seasons and compromised him in the other halves... it's not a safe bet. Relief pitchers who can give you an ERA below 3 are easier to find than that.

Edgy MD Oct 02 2018 05:28 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Yeah, he beat those teenagers down! With regard to upgrading the offense, most anybody can be moved to make room for incoming talent, but the softest spots currently seem to be catcher and third base. But I'm as interested in a philosophical upgrade as I am in a talent upgrade. I'd say I was actually more interested in the former, but often the former comes in tandem with the latter.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 02 2018 05:39 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Some addition by subtraction: Here's a silver lining -- Jose Reyes won't be around next season. That Reyes got about 250 PA's while batting under the Mendoza line might've been one of the biggest scandals of the baseball season. I suppose Sandy insisted on Reyes playing and probably threatened to squeeze the trigger of the gun he was holding to Jeff Wilpon's stupid head if Reyes didn't get all of that playing time.

41Forever Oct 02 2018 05:50 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

seawolf17 wrote: Lefty Specialist wrote: Mejia's intriguing, but after 4 years away I doubt he can be competitive. He was pretty good in the Dominican Summer League, for what that's worth. He'll be in the mix until he isn't, I guess. Is AJ Ramos still under contract? Is he back next season?

Lefty Specialist Oct 02 2018 05:56 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

God, I hope not. What they need is a batting coach who can teach hitters to go the other way. Too many ground balls into the shift.

Edgy MD Oct 02 2018 05:56 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Ramos is a free agent, and given that he's coming off of surgery for a torn labrum, it ain't the best time to be in the market. I suppose he'll be happy to get a major league contract offer.

Ceetar Oct 02 2018 05:57 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Second half offense was 'fine'. We don't really have as far to go as it might seem. The plummet in June was extreme, and is making everything else seem kinda worse. Even just one great hitter, like Machado, and some talented platoon type bench guys would make a world of difference. The pitching is/can be pretty great. Even a lot of the disasters of the middle of the year were bullpen blown ones. Hold down those early leads and things look a lot different.

Vic Sage Oct 02 2018 05:58 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

According to Spotrac, Mejia is a UFA this year. I don't think they'll be bringing him back. Flores is an Arb3, as is d'Arnaud, who will both be FAs after next year, so they'll probably non-tender d'Arnaud; maybe Wilmer, too.

Edgy MD Oct 02 2018 06:04 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Ceetar wrote: Second half offense was 'fine'. We don't really have as far to go as it might seem. The plummet in June was extreme, and is making everything else seem kinda worse. Even just one great hitter, like Machado, and some talented platoon type bench guys would make a world of difference. The pitching is/can be pretty great. Even a lot of the disasters of the middle of the year were bullpen blown ones. Hold down those early leads and things look a lot different. Also, not a few of those blowups were attached to the Mets going to the pen early when they didn't have to, to preserve recovering arms. He also used bullpen back-enders in high-leverage situations, when the featured guys hadn't been overused, but were being held to a strict innings pace. (Gsellie smelted down the last month anyhow, but hey, first year as a big-league reliever and all.) Hopefully that won't be as necessary in 2019, and Callaway will be at least a little more aggressive with innings.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 02 2018 06:18 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Over the last third of the season, the Mets played at a 96-win pace. I don't want the new front office to overvalue ("We don't need to do all that much!") nor undervalue ("Tear it down! Let's commit to three 100-loss seasons!") that fact.

Ceetar Oct 02 2018 06:29 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Over the last third of the season, the Mets played at a 96-win pace. I don't want the new front office to overvalue ("We don't need to do all that much!") nor undervalue ("Tear it down! Let's commit to three 100-loss seasons!") that fact. Well, that's exactly the job. If they correctly value the things that were actually talent and correctly dismiss the things that were flukey, they'll be good in 2019. Same for everyone. I'd be concerned about over valuing McNeil, given Citi Field's BABIP reducing ability.

Centerfield Oct 03 2018 02:20 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Let's try something new this winter and get someone good. We haven't done a lot of that recently. In fact, other than getting Yoenis Cespedes three times, I can't remember the last player that falls into this category. Get someone good. Have one of those "put a new jersey on over your suit" press conferences without people snickering in the back.

Ceetar Oct 03 2018 02:35 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Frazier is/was good. Swarzak is/was good. I guess it depends on how you define good. Vargas, compared to other 5th starters is technically 'good' as well.

Edgy MD Oct 03 2018 02:48 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Cabrera was good. Walker was good-ish. Alejandro de Aza was not so good.

86-Dreamer Oct 03 2018 03:14 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

How about we say Very Good then?

Benjamin Grimm Oct 03 2018 03:22 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Yeah, I think CF's point is that it's been a long time since we got a "Holy Shit!" kind of guy. Like Beltran. Or Santana.

Ceetar Oct 03 2018 03:26 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Yeah, I think CF's point is that it's been a long time since we got a "Holy Shit!" kind of guy. Like Beltran. Or Santana. how often do those come along? There weren't even any available last year (well one, but it wasn't the Mets fault he choice the Angels)

Benjamin Grimm Oct 03 2018 03:50 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

The Yankees got one of those guys last year in Giancarlo Stanton.

Ceetar Oct 03 2018 04:05 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Benjamin Grimm wrote: The Yankees got one of those guys last year in Giancarlo Stanton. Trades are a different animal, and they traded nearly as much value in order to afford him.

41Forever Oct 03 2018 04:44 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Centerfield wrote: Get someone good. Have one of those "put a new jersey on over your suit" press conferences without people snickering in the back. Hey now! People snickered about Todd? Not the year we expected, but a fair signing.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 03 2018 05:13 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Ceetar wrote: Benjamin Grimm wrote: The Yankees got one of those guys last year in Giancarlo Stanton. Trades are a different animal, and they traded nearly as much value in order to afford him. Santana was a trade too. I think the point was about getting a top player, not necessarily signing a top player.

Centerfield Oct 03 2018 05:16 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

A few Put on the Jersey Over Your Suit guys that have moved the past few years off the top of my head: 2018 (well they're available anyway) Bryce Harper Manny Machado Patrick Corbin Dallas Keuchel Craig Kimbrel 2017: JD Martinez Giancarlo Stanton Shohei Ohtani Christian Yelich Lorenzo Cain Wade Davis Eric Hosmer Jake Arrieta Yu Darvish Carlos Santana 2016: Chris Sale Edwin Encarnacion Aroldis Chapman Justin Turner Kenley Jansen Mark Melancon Dexter Fowler I'm not saying that the Mets should get (or should have gotten) everyone on this list. But it would be nice to play in this arena.

Edgy MD Oct 03 2018 05:19 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Is Dallas Keuchel a top player? Is Josh Donaldson?

Centerfield Oct 03 2018 05:21 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Edgy MD wrote: Is Dallas Keuchel a top player? Is Josh Donaldson? It's off the top of my head. Isn't Keuchel still good? I thought he was a top of the rotation guy. Forgot about Donaldson. But hasn't he fallen off?

41Forever Oct 03 2018 05:25 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

I was a free agent AND a top player.

Centerfield Oct 03 2018 05:47 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

41Forever wrote: I was a free agent AND a top player. Centerfield wrote: In fact, other than getting Yoenis Cespedes three times, I can't remember the last player that falls into this category. Mentioned him. Basically, I'm of the mindset that re-signing your own guy multiple times doesn't exactly qualify as improvement. Look, if you win 98 games, there isn't much room to improve. But the Mets needed to improve to get to championship status, and that's tough to do without adding elite players.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 03 2018 05:50 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

I hope they have a GM in place by around November 1. For them to do that, they need to move pretty quickly.

Centerfield Oct 03 2018 06:03 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

I don't see it happening. And like I mentioned before, I think it will be used as an excuse for why we miss out on the top talent available this year. Other excuses: *We expect Cespedes back mid year *Can't block Peter Alonso. Followed by leaving Peter Alonso in AAA. *With Mejia and Montero returning, we feel like we had some depth... *Todd Frazier. New launch angle. *Lagares also returning. We already have too many outfielders (this one might be kinda true)

Ceetar Oct 03 2018 06:06 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I hope they have a GM in place by around November 1. For them to do that, they need to move pretty quickly. GM meetings are..second week? or November. That's been there goal date, though those meetings are overblown, particularly in the media. But yeah, You'd like to not miss the opening of the free agency window I'd imagine. That can be anywhere from Nov 1st to Nov 5th. That can be tricky if the Mets want to talk to anyone with those two teams.

smg58 Oct 03 2018 06:11 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Centerfield wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Is Dallas Keuchel a top player? Is Josh Donaldson? It's off the top of my head. Isn't Keuchel still good? I thought he was a top of the rotation guy. Forgot about Donaldson. But hasn't he fallen off? Donaldson has been hurt. Because he was traded to the Indians, he has a few extra weeks to showcase where he's at right now. Donaldson had a higher WAR than Machado in each of the previous five seasons to this one, but he's six years older. The physical might be more important with him than with most free agents, but unless you have Nolan Arrenado or just signed Machado, why wouldn't you take a look?

smg58 Oct 03 2018 06:16 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Vic Sage wrote: According to Spotrac, Mejia is a UFA this year. I don't think they'll be bringing him back. Flores is an Arb3, as is d'Arnaud, who will both be FAs after next year, so they'll probably non-tender d'Arnaud; maybe Wilmer, too. I can't see d'Arnaud coming back at all. I could see Wilmer being brought back at $5M over two seasons, not $5M for one. (And with arthritis, I think he will be lucky to get that.)

Edgy MD Oct 03 2018 06:19 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Keuchel is good-ish. But he's coming off a fallback year so it's an open question whether he still has it. Signing Donaldson would be somewhat analogous to the Ventura signing. A pretty unquestionable bat playing on questionable legs at third base.

Ceetar Oct 03 2018 06:23 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

They've got a year on Mejia. Grandal is almost definitely a huge get, and should be on the list. If they don't get him though, rolling with d'Arnaud/Plawecki isn't the worst thing if you've upgraded the offense elsewhere. Plawecki is pretty league average with maybe a hope for some late development because he's a catcher. d'Arnaud can kinda hit, sometimes? if he's healthy. I dunno. Nido was overmatched this year, but could he hold his own a little more next year after some more minor league reps? (thinking post d'Arnaud injury) Flores will probably be back, he's a useful utility piece. It doesn't seem like the Arthritis is something to worry about. I guess budgetarly giving all that money to d'Arnaud and Flores might be unwise when you can probably replicate that for peanuts if you make the right evaluations of some of the other FA guys.

Gwreck Oct 03 2018 06:23 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Centerfield wrote: I don't see it happening. And like I mentioned before, I think it will be used as an excuse for why we miss out on the top talent available this year. Other excuses: *We expect Cespedes back mid year *Can't block Peter Alonso. Followed by leaving Peter Alonso in AAA. *With Mejia and Montero returning, we feel like we had some depth... *Todd Frazier. New launch angle. *Lagares also returning. We already have too many outfielders (this one might be kinda true) Amen. Go get the best available talent. Then worry about if you have 4 outfielders for 3 spots. Trades are also possible when one has a surplus of talent. Plus, you know, injuries tend to happen on this team.

Ceetar Oct 03 2018 06:27 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Gwreck wrote: Go get the best available talent. Then worry about if you have 4 outfielders for 3 spots. Trades are also possible when one has a surplus of talent. Plus, you know, injuries tend to happen on this team. Sure but then you run the risk of having to trade away value and suddenly you're not as much improved as you though. or playing talent out of position and losing value defensively. Not that you lose MORE defensive value playing Bruce at first instead of RF. (which is inevitable for three weeks) Still though, Harper is a lefty in an already lefty-heavy team and outfield. He's a talent you'd love to have but it really just isn't a good fit. Unless you get blown away in an offer for Nimmo and Conforto, you really can't/shouldn't trade those guys. You almost HAVE to get a Machado type to make the infield all righty if you go all lefty in the outfield.

smg58 Oct 03 2018 06:34 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Edgy MD wrote: Ceetar wrote: Second half offense was 'fine'. We don't really have as far to go as it might seem. The plummet in June was extreme, and is making everything else seem kinda worse. Even just one great hitter, like Machado, and some talented platoon type bench guys would make a world of difference. The pitching is/can be pretty great. Even a lot of the disasters of the middle of the year were bullpen blown ones. Hold down those early leads and things look a lot different. Also, not a few of those blowups were attached to the Mets going to the pen early when they didn't have to, to preserve recovering arms. He also used bullpen back-enders in high-leverage situations, when the featured guys hadn't been overused, but were being held to a strict innings pace. (Gsellie smelted down the last month anyhow, but hey, first year as a big-league reliever and all.) Hopefully that won't be as necessary in 2019, and Callaway will be at least a little more aggressive with innings. I think the handling of the rotation was exactly what it needed to be at the time, but there was too much quantity and not enough quality in the pen. Alderson got a bunch of relievers at the 2017 deadline, but none of them were ready to start the season in Queens and there was not a good reason to think that any of them would be (Rhame had decent AAA experience, but he turned out to be the worst one of the lot). The best bullpen pickup over the last year and a half as of now appears to be Zamora, who cost us Josh Smoker. There were good bargains out there to be had (The Giants got Tony Watson for 3 years and $9M, the Astros got Hector Rondon for two years and $8.5M), but Alderson seemed content over the offseason to trust what he had beyond bringing in Swarzak. I think Basholor, Drew Smith, and Bobby Wahl have a chance of stepping forward next year, but I wouldn't trust them with more than one spot.

smg58 Oct 03 2018 06:35 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Ceetar wrote: Grandal is almost definitely a huge get, and should be on the list. If they don't get him though, rolling with d'Arnaud/Plawecki isn't the worst thing if you've upgraded the offense elsewhere. Plawecki is pretty league average with maybe a hope for some late development because he's a catcher. d'Arnaud can kinda hit, sometimes? if he's healthy. I dunno. Nido was overmatched this year, but could he hold his own a little more next year after some more minor league reps? (thinking post d'Arnaud injury) Don't forget Wilson Ramos, too.

Ceetar Oct 03 2018 06:40 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

yeah. Ramos is good too. Looks like he might've been a little lucky too. Love Grandal's BB%. Kurt Suzuki and F. Cervelli look pretty nice too, from an older/cheaper/backup standpoint. edit: Cervelli not a FA. misread it.

Edgy MD Oct 03 2018 07:07 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Swarzie was probably coming off the best year of anybubby. Split over two teams, too. Alas, he doesn't have a history of pitching two good, healthy years in a row.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Oct 04 2018 02:35 AM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Problem with bullpen spending is, you don't know which of these guys-- save a scant few with track records-- is a fluke, or due for an off-year. Unless you've already got your championship contender built, you build a team-- including a flexible, fungible bullpen comprised of your guys and/or buy-low additions-- in the offseason, and upgrade your bullpen in-season (see: Oakland, MFYs).

Edgy MD Oct 04 2018 03:25 AM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Mets too.

Centerfield Oct 04 2018 01:39 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Problem with bullpen spending is, you don't know which of these guys-- save a scant few with track records-- is a fluke, or due for an off-year. Unless you've already got your championship contender built, you build a team-- including a flexible, fungible bullpen comprised of your guys and/or buy-low additions-- in the offseason, and upgrade your bullpen in-season (see: Oakland, MFYs). This is true. You can get a little better picture with analytics (rather than hey, this guy has a lot of saves and he's a "closer"), but definitely. Greg Holland on one side, Brandon Morrow on the other. Everyone was hot for Brian Shaw last winter and he was pretty doodoo.

smg58 Oct 05 2018 01:48 PM Re: 2019: Go for broke or break it down!

Same with Addison Reed.