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Size Matters - Budget 2019

Centerfield Oct 02 2018 02:01 PM

Do I really expect a significant increase? Not really. But it will be interesting to see how this storyline plays out. A few things are different from last winter. 1. I think the tide is shifting on the Wilpon conversation. Last winter, only a few national guys (and Marc Carig who had one foot out the door) were willing to take the Wilpons to task. After this year's disaster, others have finally caught on. Other than the guys actively vying for appearances on SNY, I think there are more writers willing to call out the Wilpons for their lack of spending. We'll see how it plays out. 2. David Wright's contract: I think now that the comeback has reached its conclusion, they'd be hard pressed to say that the money is spent and won't be reinvested. I imagine they'll reuse this excuse for Cespedes, but I can't see them justifying pocketing the insurance money on Wright going forward. I wonder if Jeff has shot himself in the foot. Blaming the lack of spending on Sandy may have gotten himself (in his eyes anyway), a short term reprieve. But it will be hard to blame this year's lack of spending on Sandy as well ("He left a note to his successor not to spend more than $150 miillion. Out of respect for Sandy, we felt like we had to oblige. The poor man is battling cancer after all.") Time will tell.

Ceetar Oct 02 2018 02:28 PM Re: Size Matters - Budget 2019

1. There's a broader scope of media, that helps to get a little more balanced, less pandered, viewpoint, though it does occasionally fall into the national media trap of painting with broad strokes and repeating unsourced narrative nonsense. Jeff can probably be guilted into some things, but the criticism is all over the board that I worry all he'll be guilted into is the rich person way of just overspending on something shiny and not something 'awesome'. But I don't think he'll be guilted into anything that has any risk of hurting him (him, not the Mets) financially. Though hopefully we're far enough away from the Madoff stuff (and Trump tax cuts!) that it's not as big a concern as it might've been in 2013. 2. Yeah, Wright's contract will be locked down in the budget in a specific way, whatever that ends up being we won't know, but they'll have closure. He's still owed money for a decade, which no one seems to bring up, but it's trivial. 3. I think the budget increases somewhat. They've stuck pretty hard to the "Payroll won't exceed the revenue" mantra for a while now, arbitrary as those numbers might be, but I think they know they can't expect to hire someone respectable (And they do care about that) and tell him he can't spend. Of course, it's hard to tell what the new person will want to do. Sandy seemed to want to take a year to evaluate what he was working with, thought obviously the Wilpon's had their assets frozen roughly at the same time he was hired, so.. Machado is a no-brainer to spend money on, but I could see a new guy being less enthused, even if permitted, to inflate his 2020 budget right away on someone lesser like Kimbrel. My guess is that the new guy gets clearance to increase the budget by a bit, maybe the 30-40 that's owed Wright and Cespedes that'll be gone after 2020. If he doesn't get results (read: revenue increase), he might not be permitted to reinvest the money at that time. Hopefully they do hire more analytics experts (though I still think that '3' number is from 2017). I'd love to hear more about what's going on in that department, beyond the specifics of how many bodies. Adam Fisher left after 2016 to join the Braves, and he recently was cited as saying the Mets had about 3 full time guys, that was enough to handle what the front office needed research/analysis wise but not enough to really do much in terms of developing new techniques, new algorithms or metrics so to speak.

smg58 Oct 02 2018 02:37 PM Re: Size Matters - Budget 2019

If I were a betting man, I'd say they add $10M to this year's payroll, which will leave them about $30M (making rough guesses on arbitration and including the 75% of Wright's contract) to play with. That's not a whole lot, but I hope I'm wrong. The key is spending well. The Phillies spent way too much on Jake Arrieta and gave Carlos Santana an amount that, considering what other first basemen got and that any defensive value he provided was negated by moving Rhys Hoskins to the outfield, was simply embarrassing. The Brewers, on the other hand, found the right guy to invest in (Lorenzo Cain) and spent less for two years of Jhoulys Chacin than we did for two years of Jason Vargas. And now they're the top seed in the National League. So don't just throw money at people, be smart about it.

Gwreck Oct 02 2018 06:18 PM Re: Size Matters - Budget 2019

smg58 wrote: The Brewers, on the other hand, found the right guy to invest in (Lorenzo Cain) and spent less for two years of Jhoulys Chacin than we did for two years of Jason Vargas. And now they're the top seed in the National League. So don't just throw money at people, be smart about it. They did also trade for a 25 year old future star who proceeded to put up 7.6 WAR. If there’s a player out there like that in the trade market, the Mets should be interested. There are two players like that on the FA market, though.

Ceetar Oct 02 2018 06:27 PM Re: Size Matters - Budget 2019

Chacin had a higher xFIP than Vargas. I didn't see anybody link the Mets to Chacin, but he might've been the best of the available guys. Lynn was badish but unlucky so maybe he wouldn't have been as bad in Citi. (was the opposite for him the year before w/ Cardinals) Arrieta was meh and overpaid. In any event, Vargas is as meh as any of 'em, he's probably a fine 5th guy as long as you both have reasonable depth guys and a better team around that. Mets still owe him about $10 so he either puts up more numbers like the second half or you just cut him.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 02 2018 06:37 PM Re: Size Matters - Budget 2019

Lynn and Cobb are the names I remember hearing last year.

Edgy MD Oct 02 2018 06:54 PM Re: Size Matters - Budget 2019

Man, Lynn and Cobb! That sounds like it could have been some great depth in centerfield!

smg58 Oct 02 2018 07:04 PM Re: Size Matters - Budget 2019

Gwreck wrote: They did also trade for a 25 year old future star who proceeded to put up 7.6 WAR. It's entirely possible that a lot of luck was involved, but their GM pulled all the right levers last offseason. Ceetar wrote: Chacin had a higher xFIP than Vargas. Which tells you everything about xFIP that you really need to know. Ceetar wrote: In any event, Vargas is as meh as any of 'em, he's probably a fine 5th guy as long as you both have reasonable depth guys and a better team around that. Mets still owe him about $10 so he either puts up more numbers like the second half or you just cut him. I was actually very happy with the way Vargas finished the season. I don't consider the rotation to be a concern.

Gwreck Oct 03 2018 01:33 AM Re: Size Matters - Budget 2019

I agree with the point about spending money wisely, of course. I just think that he Yelich trade was the biggest offseason factor in getting the Brewers where they are. And of course want the Mets to make a similar move this offseason by signing Machado.